The CORDEX-CORE initiative Transient Climate Change Projection - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

The CORDEX-CORE initiative

Global Temperature Time

Transient Climate Change “Projection” (using a GCM as boundary condition)

Control

1860 2100 2005

Transient Climate Change

Historical Period Future Period Historical forcings Forcing scenarios

IPCC – 2013: Global temperature change projections for the 21st century

Fraction of uncertainty explained by different sources as a function of lead time

Decadal temperature - Global Decadal temperature – British Isles

Internal variability Scenario uncertainty Model configuration uncertainty

Hawkins and Sutton 2009

West Africa monsoon season Mediterranean warm season

Regional precipitation vs. temperature change

Model configuration uncertainty at the regional scale (AOGCMs)

Trends on a regional scale

Precipitation trend 1990-2050

HadCM3 LBC ECHAM5 LBC

GCMs: a small increase in rainfall (ensemble average) RCA4: an increase in rainfall for all members CCLM4: a decrease (3 of 4)

West Africa: climate projections (JAS)

4 GCMs, RCA4 (4 GCMs) and CCLM (4 GCMs)

Courtesy of G. Nikulin

Sources of uncertainty in the simulation of temperature and precipitation change (2071-2100 minus 1961-1990) by the ensemble of PRUDENCE simulations (whole Europe)

(Note: the scenario range is about half of the full IPCC range, the GCM range does not cover the full IPCC range) (Adapted from Deque et al. 2006)

T-DJF T-JJA P-JJA P-DJF SCENARIO

GCM

VARIABILITY

RCM

Forcing Scenario Experiment (i,j,k …) Internal Variability

GCM Configuration RCD Configuration

RCD Approach Geographic Region

Giorgi et al. EOS 2008 Large ensembles are needed to explore the uncertainty space

CORDEX Vision and Goals

The CORDEX vision is to advance and coordinate the science and application of regional climate downscaling through global partnerships

• To better understand relevant regional/local climate

phenomena, their variability and changes through downscaling

• To evaluate and improve regional climate

downscaling models and techniques (RCM, ESD, VAR-AGCM, HIR-AGCM)

• To produce large coordinated sets of regional

downscaled projections worldwide

• To foster communication and knowledge exchange

with users of regional climate information

CORDEX – Some history

• Initial discussions across the downscaling community (mostly

RCM) - Toulouse 2009

• Establishment by the WCRP of the Task Force on Regional

Climate Downscaling, TFRCD (2010)

• Design of Phase I CORDEX framework (Giorgi et al. 2009;

Jones et al. 2011) and first CORDEX Conference (Trieste 2011)

• Establishment by the WCRP of the Science Advisory Team,

SAT (2012)

• Second Pan-CORDEX conference ICRC-CORDEX 2013,

Brussels, November 2013.

• Establishment by WCRP of the Working Group on Regional

Climate, WGRC (2013).

• Third Pan-CORDEX conference ICRC-CORDEX 2016,

Stockholm, May 2016

• Fourth Pan-CORDEX conference ICRC-CORDEX 2019,

Beijing, October 2019

CORDEX Management

• International Project Office for CORDEX (IPOC)

hosted at SMHI since January 2015 (I. lake Head).

• CORDEX archiving coordinated by IS-ENES
• Regional points of contact (POCs), 2-3 per region
• CORDEX Science advisory team (SAT), 12 members

SAT-2 meeting SMHI (Sweden) 25-27 Feb., 2015

CORDEX domains

CORDEX Phase I experiment protocol

Model Evaluation Framework Climate Projection Framework ERA-Interim LBC 1989-2007 Multiple driving AOGCMs Scenarios (1951-2100) RCP4.5, RCP8.5 Multiple regions (Initial focus on Africa) 50 km grid spacing Regional Analysis Regional Databanks Evaluation of present day GCM-driven climate runs

10 20 30 40

finishe/published running planed

0.11° Scenarios

10 20 30 40

finishe/published running planed

0.44° Scenarios

EURO-CORDEX

CORDEX-AFRICA CORDEX-S. ASIA

Ensembles of projections are available for most domains, however with a large heterogeneity in the ensemble size, e.g. >30 over Europe, ~0 over Australasia

CORDEX-CORE experiment protocol

Model Evaluation Framework Climate Projection Framework ERA-Interim LBC 1989-2007 Core set of driving AOGCMs Scenarios (1970-2100) RCP2.6, RCP8.5 Core number of RCMs run over all domains 25 km grid spacing Regional Analysis Regional Databanks Evaluation of present day GCM-driven climate runs

• Two RCMs participating

– RegCM4 (ICTP-RegCNET) – REMO (GERICS)

• Two scenarios: RCP8.5, RCP2.6
• Three CMIP5 GCMs are being downscaled

– HadGEM (MIROC for SAS) – MPI – NorESM (GFDL for CAM)

• Ten CORDEX domains: EUR, AFR, SAS, EAS, SEA, AUS,

NAM, CAM, SAM, CAS (GERICS only)

• Some other models may join (CLM) for individual domains.
• Meant to provide input to the IPCC Atlas

Current status of CORDEX-CORE

RegCM4 CORDEX-CORE domains

• Australasia: Completed (ICTP)
• South America: Completed (ICTP)
• Central America: Completed (ICTP)
• Africa: ~ 2070 (ICTP)
• Europe: Special case – PRINCIPLES (12 km resolution)
• South Asia: Completed (Moetasim)
• Southeast Asia: Historical completed (Eun-Soon)
• East Asia: Completed (?) (Gao; old version of RegCM4)
• North America: RCP8.5 available (Melissa-NARCCAP, old

version of RegCM4)

Current status of RegCM4 simulations

• Version 4.7.1 just released on the public web-site –

few bugs corrected comapre to 4.7.0

• Convection-permitting version of the model fully
• perational
• Output post-processing for CORDEX format (PY-

CORDEX)

• No further developments on RegCM4
• Implementation of a new dynamical core (both

hydrostatic and non-hydrostatic) which will be the basis for RegCM5 (hopefully beta version to be tested at next year’s RegCM workshop)

What is happening to the model

• Special issue based on the first analysis of the RegCM

CORDEX-CORE projections

– Target journal: International Journal of Climatology – Deadline: December 2019 (IPCC deadline)

• Finalize as well as possible the number of papers that will

be in the special issue

– Focus on cross-domain analysis

• Identify lead author and teams of co-authors for each paper
• Write an extended outline for the paper + examples of

analysis

– Presentation by each paper’s group on Friday

AIMS of the Workshop

• With GERICS (not to be included in the SI; based
• n both RegCM4 and REMO runs)

– General evaluation paper, mean climate and change (Lead:GERICS) – Variability, hydroclimatic regimes and extremes (Lead: ICTP-Giorgi) – Climate hazards (Lead: ICTP-Coppola) – Added value (Lead: ICTP-Ciarlo)

Papers identified so far

• For the SI (only based on RegCM):

1. Mean climate evaluation and change (Taleena, Lincoln, Cristiana Kudsia) 2. Monsoons (Moetasim;Shahe; Tereza, Cristiana, Chen, Lincoln) 3. Tropical storms & Low Level Jets (Abraham; Antonio; Arturo, Sushant, Diego) 4. Added value Europe (James, Emanuela) 5. Severe weather outbreaks (Russell) 6. Snow-driven runoff (Erika, Kudsia, Wang, Anubha) 7. Change in city climates & Hotspots (Filippo, Francesca, Rosmeri, Soon, Csaba, Sara, Marco, Sawadogo) 8. Climate and health – heat stress (Eun-soon; Adeniyi, Tong) 9. Extra-tropical cyclones & Explosive cyclones (Michelle; Marco, Rosa)

• 10. Land-atmosphere feedbacks (Marta; Aissaiou, Tinebeb; Maria, Diego;

Fernand)

• 11. Impacts of fire potential (Taleena)
• 12. Changes in flood hazards (Fabio) & Flood maps (Rita; Wati, Natalia, Alo)
• 13. Extremes over Asia (Emanuela)
• 14. Water demand & availability (Tinebeb; Natalia )
• 15. Solar and Wind energy (Sawadogo)

Papers identified so far

• For the SI (only based on RegCM):

1. Mean climate evaluation and change (Taleena, Lincoln, Christiana; Kudsia; Wati) 2. Monsoons (Moetasim;Shahe; Tereza, Christiana, Chen, Lincoln, Adeniyi) 3. Tropical storms & Low Level Jets (Abraham; Antonio; Arturo, Sushant, Diego) 4. Added value Europe (James, Emanuela) 5. Severe weather outbreaks (Russell) 6. Snow-driven runoff (Erika, Kudsia, Wang, Anubha) 7. Change in city climates & Hotspots (Filippo, Francesca, Rosmeri, Soon, Csaba, Sara, Marco, Sawadogo, Tomas) 8. Climate and health – heat stress (Eun-soon; Adeniyi, Tong) 9. Extra-tropical cyclones & Explosive cyclones (Michelle; Marco, Rosa)

• 10. Land-atmosphere feedbacks (Marta; Aissaiou, Tinebeb; Maria, Diego; Fernand)
• 11. Impacts of fire potential (Taleena.)
• 12. Changes in flood hazards & Flood maps (Fabio; Rita; Wati, Natalia, Alok)
• 13. Extremes over Asia (Emanuela)
• 14. Water demand & availability (Tinebeb; Natalia)
• 15. Solar and Wind energy (Sawadogo)
• 16. DC and AC of precipitation (Fernand; Sara; Lincoln)

Papers identified so far

Thank you and have a productive week