The consequences of climate change for EU agriculture Follow up to - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

The consequences of climate change for EU agriculture

Follow up to the COP21-UN Paris Climate Change Conference Kaley Hart & Ben Allen

Institute for European Environmental Policy (IEEP)

11/04/2017 Presentation for the Committee on Agriculture and Rural Development 1

Struc Structure of the Pre ture of the Presen sentation tation

• 1. Interactions between agriculture and

climate

• 2. EU climate action and agriculture
• 3. The climate role of the CAP
• 4. Perspectives on the future

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• 1. Interactions between

agriculture & climate

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Agri Agriculture culture affected affected by by the clim the climate ate

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Pressures on farming systems

• Temperature variations
• Water availability
• Water quality
• Pests and disease
• Fire risk
• Storm damage

Agri Agriculture culture’s s impac impact t on the climate

• n the climate

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Affects climate change:

• Emissions of GHGs –

directly and indirectly

• Removal of GHGs from the

atmosphere – carbon sequestration

• Contributions to reductions

in other sectors (e.g. renewable energy)

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Agri Agricultural cultural GH GHG emissions G emissions (C (CO2/non /non-CO CO2)

42.9% Enteric fermentation 15.4% Manure

38.0% Soils

GHG GHG e emissions missions from agriculture from agriculture including including agricultu agricultural ral soils soils (croplan (cropland d and and grass grassland), by Membe land), by Member S r State, tate, 2014 2014

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Agri Agriculture culture’s s contribution to GHG contribution to GHG emission emissions (C s (CO2 & non CO & non CO2)

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• Significant variation by

country

• Agriculture’s

contribution will become more significant over time

• FR, DE, UK make up

~44% of all agricultural emissions

29.3% Energy supply 19.2% Transport 19.0% Industry 11.5% Residential & commercial

11.3% Agriculture Others

Agri Agriculture culture’s s contribution to GHG contribution to GHG emission emissions (C s (CO2 & non CO & non CO2)

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• Agriculture’s

contribution will become more significant over time

• FR, DE, UK make up

~44% of all agricultural emissions

• 2. EU Climate action &

agriculture

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EU C EU Climate Action & Agriculture (2020) limate Action & Agriculture (2020)

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Global framework: The Kyoto Protocol EU framework: 2020 climate & energy framework EU Actions Accounting and Reporting:

• Effort Sharing Decision (ESD)
• Land Use, Land Use Change & Forestry (LULUCF)
• Emissions Trading System (ETS)

Emission reduction, removals & adaptation:

• Common Agricultural Policy (CAP)
• Renewable Energy Directive (RED)
• Water Framework Directive (WFD)
• National Emissions Ceiling Directive (NECD)
• etc.

EU C EU Climate Action & Agriculture (2030) limate Action & Agriculture (2030)

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Global framework: The Paris Agreement EU framework: 2030 climate & energy framework EU Actions Accounting and Reporting:

• Effort Sharing Regulation (ESR)
• Land Use, Land Use Change & Forestry (LULUCF)
• Emissions Trading System (ETS)

Emission reduction, removals & adaptation:

• Common Agricultural Policy (CAP)
• Renewable Energy Directive II (RED II)
• Water Framework Directive (WFD)
• National Emissions Ceiling Directive (NECD)
• etc.

The Paris The Paris Agreement Agreement & EU & EU framework framework

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Mitigation:

• Targets for emission reductions
• 40% by 2030 (Global and EU ambition)
• 80% by 2050 (EU Low carbon transition)

Adaptation:

• Submit and update adaptation communications
• implementation and support needs;
• Priorities;
• plans and actions.

EU Accou EU Accounting nting and and reporting reporting

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Mechanism 2020 2030 ESD:

• Non-CO2 emissions from

agriculture

• Explicitly excludes emissions from

land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF Cross sector target Cross sector targets increased

LULUCF:

• CO2 emissions from cropland and

grazing land management. Excluded from CC&E framework

But LULUCF Decision requires some action

Included within CC&E No-debit rule

EU-ETS:

• N2O emissions from fertiliser manufacturing
• Large bioenergy facilities
• Zero carbon rating of biomass

EU Accou EU Accounting nting and and reporting reporting

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Share (%) of agriculture (non CO2) in ESD emissions in 2015

EU Accou EU Accounting nting and and reporting reporting

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GHG reduction targets for 2020 set out in the ESD and for 2030 in the proposed ESR

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Mitigation actions

• Reduced tillage
• Zero tillage
• Leaving crop residues on the soil surface
• Ceasing to burn crop residues and vegetation
• Use cover/catch crops
• Livestock disease management
• Use of sexed semen for breeding dairy replacements
• Breeding lower methane emissions in ruminants
• Feed additives for ruminant diets
• Optimised feeding strategies for livestock
• Soil and nutrient management plans
• Use of nitrification inhibitors
• Improved nitrogen efficiency
• Biological N fixation in rotations and in grass mixes
• Carbon auditing tools
• Improved on-farm energy efficiency
• Conversion of arable land to grassland to sequester carbon in the soil
• New agroforestry
• Wetland/Peatland conservation/restoration
• Woodland planting

Mitigation Mitigation actions actions in a in agriculture griculture

• 3. The climate role of the

Common Agricultural Policy

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Cl Climate imate and and the C the CAP AP

• CAP has

considerable potential to advance climate action on agricultural (and forest) land

• Climate objectives

have become more prominent in the CAP over time

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2014-2020

Cl Climate imate Acti Action

• n in practice vi

in practice via the C a the CAP AP

Main CAP measures with climate potential:

• Cross-compliance GAEC standards
• Farm Advisory System
• Pillar 1 green direct payments
• Pillar 2 rural development measures (land management,

investments, advice and capacity building) Achieving climate benefits in practice depends

• n:
• the choices made by Member States in programming the

CAP for 2014-20; and

• the choices made by farmers within the options available

to them.

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Variable Variable implementa implementation tion

• Minimalist approach in many MSs
• Climate not a compulsory element of the Farm Advisory

System

• RDP budgetary allocations for climate are lower than for
• ther objectives
• Targets for climate indicators non existent in some RDPs
• r very low ambition.

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Overall Expenditure for RDPs by Strategic Priority: EU-28 2014-2020

MS R MS RDP DP exp expend enditure iture on

• n

climate climate compared compared to to EU avera EU average ge

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RD RDP P targets targets relevant to climate relevant to climate

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• 4. Future perspectives

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Perspec Perspectives for tives for the agricultural the agricultural sec sector and CAP tor and CAP

• To reach the target agreed under the Paris Agreement may

require net zero emissions from all sectors at some point around

• r after 2050
• Greater consideration will need to be given to how the

agriculture sector can play an enhanced role

• There is a need to reconcile food security with climate change

concerns

• Despite this, there is still progress that could be made within the

sector to enhance carbon sequestration, improve energy efficiency, and reduce GHG emissions relating to land management.

• Potential action to reduce EU demand for GHG-intensive

agricultural production, through measures to address excess meat and dairy consumption in diets or measures to tackle food waste has not yet been adopted at EU level.

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Po Potential climate action tential climate actions s - agricultu agriculture re

Land use change

• E.g. afforestation, agro-forestry, arable

conversion

Crop Production

• E.g. Zero/reduced tillage, cover/catch crops,

crop residues

Livestock Production

• E.g. Disease management, breeding, feed

additives etc

Nutrient and Soil Management

• E.g. Nitrification inhibitors, improved N

fixation etc

Energy

• E.g. Carbon audits, energy efficiency,

anaerobic digesters

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Considera Considerations tions for the future for the future

Evidence:

• Database of evidence on mitigation potentials of different farming

practices in different climatic zones and on different soil types Clear objectives, pathways and targets:

• Vision and pathways to achieve objectives required
• The lack of explicit GHG emission reduction or carbon

sequestration targets for the agriculture sector means there is little incentive to focus attention in this area

• Must not forget the consumption dimension

CAP and other relevant policies:

• Design of instruments and measures with climate objectives in

mind

• Encourage improved use and implementation by Member States

and greater uptake by farmers

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Thank you for your attention

Kaley Hart – khart@ieep.eu Ben Allen – ballen@ieep.eu

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www.ieep.eu @IEEP_eu