The 3FM As already discussed, the 3FM has Javier Estrada - - PDF document

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The 3FM As already discussed, the 3FM has Javier Estrada - - PDF document

Application 3: The Three Factor Model Javier Estrada ADFIN Winter/2014 1. The Three Factor Model Your results The distribution of the required return on equity Impact on performance evaluation Fundamental indexation


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Application 3:

The Three‐Factor Model

Javier Estrada ADFIN – Winter/2014

  • 1. The Three‐Factor Model
  • Your results
  • The distribution of the required return on equity
  • Impact on performance evaluation
  • Fundamental indexation (smart beta) and the 3FM
  • Buffett’s alpha and the 3FM
  • 2. Risk‐Adjusted Returns & Fees and Returns
  • Risk‐adjusted returns: A few comments on your results
  • Fees and returns: A few comments on your results

Javier Estrada IESE Business School Barcelona Spain ADFIN Winter/2014

The 3FM

  • As already discussed, the 3FM has …
  • corporate finance applications
  • Estimation of the required return on equity

 Input in the cost of capital  Hence, project evaluation, company valuation, …

  • portfolio management applications
  • Estimation of the required return on funds

 Input in alpha  Performance evaluation

  • Your work in App3 largely focused on corporate

finance applications

  • So far, but before we move on, a few more thoughts
  • n the CorpFin applications of the model

GoXls

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Javier Estrada IESE Business School Barcelona Spain ADFIN Winter/2014

The Distribution of RRE

Javier Estrada IESE Business School Barcelona Spain ADFIN Winter/2014

Performance Evaluation

  • Legg Mason Value Prim
  • 4‐year mean annualized return: 27.3%
  • S&P 500 annualized return: 21.6%

 Is the outperformance due to skill? (Assume luck away)

  • CAPM
  • Rt – Rft = α + β⋅MRPt + ut
  • β = 0.93
  • α = 0.46% (and significant)
  • 3FM
  • Rt – Rft = α + β⋅MRPt + βS⋅SMBt + βV⋅HMLt + ut
  • β = 0.99 / βS = 0.36 / βV = 0.22
  • α = 0.22% (and non‐significant)
  • Hence, a large part of the outperformance was due to

‘naive’ exposure to the size and value factors

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Javier Estrada IESE Business School Barcelona Spain ADFIN Winter/2014

Fundamental Indexation

Javier Estrada IESE Business School Barcelona Spain ADFIN Winter/2014

Smart Beta

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Javier Estrada IESE Business School Barcelona Spain ADFIN Winter/2014

Smart Beta

Javier Estrada IESE Business School Barcelona Spain ADFIN Winter/2014

Smart Beta

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Javier Estrada IESE Business School Barcelona Spain ADFIN Winter/2014

Fundamental Indexation

Javier Estrada IESE Business School Barcelona Spain ADFIN Winter/2014

Equally‐Weighted ETFs

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Javier Estrada IESE Business School Barcelona Spain ADFIN Winter/2014

Warren Buffett

  • What about Buffett?
  • Can his spectacular outperformance be explained

away by size and value exposures?

+11.6%

Javier Estrada IESE Business School Barcelona Spain ADFIN Winter/2014

RARs & Fees

  • Risk‐adjusted returns
  • A few rounding comments
  • Alpha
  • Sharpe v. RAP
  • Rankings

GoXls

  • Fees and returns
  • A few rounding comments
  • The more you pay, the less you get!