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TH THE S STRA TRANG NGE S STATE TE OF TH OF THE LI LIBERAL L INTERNATIONAL L ORDER
Daniel W. Drezner KCIS June 2019
TH THE S STRA TRANG NGE S STATE TE OF TH OF THE LI LIBERAL - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
TH THE S STRA TRANG NGE S STATE TE OF TH OF THE LI LIBERAL - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
TH THE S STRA TRANG NGE S STATE TE OF TH OF THE LI LIBERAL L INTERNATIONAL L ORDER Daniel W. Drezner KCIS June 2019 WH WHAT IS THE E LI LIBER ERAL L INT NTER ERNA NATIONA NAL L ORDER DER? ME ME IN 2014 2014 ME ME IN
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ME ME IN 2014 2014
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ME ME IN 2019 2019
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NOT T JUST T ME
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WHA WHAT HA T HAPPE PPENE NED?
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REV REVISION ISIONIS ISTS F S FROM OM W WIT ITHOU HOUT AN AND WI WITHIN
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MY MY A ARGUME MENT NT
- U.S. structural power has been underestimated
- Revisionism from rising powers has been exaggerated
- U.S. control over structural pillars of power persist
- Revisionism from within is the real problem
- It’s not going away anytime soon
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TH THINKING ABOUT T POWER
- Resource-based
- Balancing dynamics
CAPABILITIES
- Network-based
- Winner-take-all
STRUCTURES
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THE STRANG NGE STATE OF THE CURRENT NT OR ORDE DER
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TH THE FOUR STR TRUCTU TURAL PILLARS OF POWER
SECURITY PRODUCTION AND TRADE CREDIT AND FINANCE IDEAS AND INFORMATION
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HOW TO REVI VISE A GLOBAL ORDER
- The traditional method is costly
- Concerns about premature exclusion
- Concerns about premature signaling
- Tipping point effects
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TH THE OPTI TIMAL SEQUENCING
Ideas and information Production Security and finance
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CHINA NA IN 2008 v 2008 vs.
- s. 2018
2018
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CHIN HINA AS RESPONSIB IBLE STAKEHO HOLDER
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Ne New w institution
- ns con
- nsistent wi
with ol
- ld ideas
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BACKLASH TO BELT T & ROAD
Malaysia Pakistan India
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WH WHAT AC ACTUALLY WO WORRIES ES ME ME
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IN REALI LITY…
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REVI VISIONISM FROM WITH THIN
- IDEAS AND INFORMATION
à “fake news,” “enemy of the people.”
- PRODUCTION à Trade
wars!
- SECURITY à Mostly
rhetoric
- FINANCE à Hyper-
sanctions
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WHY POPUL ULISTS DISLIKE E THE E LIBER ERAL INTER ERNATIONAL ORDER ER
Technocratic Cosmopolitan Interdependent Pluralist Populist nationalism
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Populism Multilateral constraints
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EX EXITI TING FROM GLOBAL GOVER ERNANCE
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SE SECRETARY OF F STATE TE MIKE MIKE POMP MPEO, DE DECEM EMBER ER 2018
“Multilateralism has too
- ften become viewed as an
end unto itself. The more treaties we sign, the safer we supposedly are. The more bureaucrats we have, the better the job gets done. Was that ever really true?”
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HO HOW DID ID THIS HIS HA HAPPEN?
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EROSION OF TR TRUST T IN AUTH THORITY TY AND EXPERTI TISE
Edelman Trust Barometer, 2018: “The public’s confidence in the traditional structures of American leadership is now fully undermined and has been replaced with a strong sense
- f fear, uncertainty and
disillusionment.”
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RISE OF POLITI TICAL POLARIZATI TION
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HO HOW W POLARIZ IZATON AFFECTS U.S. FOREIG IGN POLIC ICY
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EBBING OF EXECUTI TIVE VE BRANCH CONSTR TRAINTS
CONGRESS? JUDICIARY?
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AS A RESULT… T…
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CA CAN TH THIS BE BE RE REVERSE SED? D?
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BU BUT… T…
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HO HOW ENGAGED IS IS TH THE PUBLIC?
- “When asked what the phrase
‘maintaining the liberal international order’ indicated to them, all but one of the participants in our focus group drew a blank.” Center for American Progress, “America Adrift,” May 2019
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IN CONCLUSION…. ….
- The liberal international order is not dead, but it’s not
healthy either.
- The problem is not Russia or China: it’s the United States.
- Domestic political changes will make U.S. maintenance very
difficult.