TH THE S STRA TRANG NGE S STATE TE OF TH OF THE LI LIBERAL L INTERNATIONAL L ORDER Daniel W. Drezner KCIS June 2019
WH WHAT IS THE E LI LIBER ERAL L INT NTER ERNA NATIONA NAL L ORDER DER?
ME ME IN 2014 2014
ME ME IN 2019 2019
NOT T JUST T ME
WHA WHAT HA T HAPPE PPENE NED?
REV REVISION ISIONIS ISTS F S FROM OM W WIT ITHOU HOUT AN AND WI WITHIN
MY MY A ARGUME MENT NT • U.S. structural power has been underestimated • Revisionism from rising powers has been exaggerated • U.S. control over structural pillars of power persist • Revisionism from within is the real problem • It’s not going away anytime soon
TH THINKING ABOUT T POWER • Resource-based CAPABILITIES • Balancing dynamics • Network-based STRUCTURES • Winner-take-all
THE STRANG NGE STATE OF THE CURRENT NT OR ORDE DER
TH THE FOUR STR TRUCTU TURAL PILLARS OF POWER SECURITY PRODUCTION AND TRADE CREDIT AND FINANCE IDEAS AND INFORMATION
HOW TO REVI VISE A GLOBAL ORDER • The traditional method is costly • Concerns about premature exclusion • Concerns about premature signaling • Tipping point effects
TH THE OPTI TIMAL SEQUENCING Ideas and information Production Security and finance
CHINA NA IN 2008 v 2008 vs. s. 2018 2018
CHIN HINA AS RESPONSIB IBLE STAKEHO HOLDER
Ne New w institution ons con onsistent wi with ol old ideas
BACKLASH TO BELT T & ROAD Malaysia Pakistan India
WH WHAT AC ACTUALLY WO WORRIES ES ME ME
IN REALI LITY…
• IDEAS AND INFORMATION à “fake news,” “enemy of the people.” • PRODUCTION à Trade wars! • SECURITY à Mostly rhetoric • FINANCE à Hyper- REVI VISIONISM FROM WITH THIN sanctions
Technocratic Cosmopolitan Interdependent Pluralist Populist nationalism WHY POPUL ULISTS DISLIKE E THE E LIBER ERAL INTER ERNATIONAL ORDER ER
Populism Multilateral constraints
EX EXITI TING FROM GLOBAL GOVER ERNANCE
SE SECRETARY OF F STATE TE MIKE MIKE POMP MPEO, DE DECEM EMBER ER 2018 “Multilateralism has too often become viewed as an end unto itself. The more treaties we sign, the safer we supposedly are. The more bureaucrats we have, the better the job gets done. Was that ever really true?”
HO HOW DID ID THIS HIS HA HAPPEN?
EROSION OF TR TRUST T IN AUTH THORITY TY AND EXPERTI TISE Edelman Trust Barometer, 2018: “The public’s confidence in the traditional structures of American leadership is now fully undermined and has been replaced with a strong sense of fear, uncertainty and disillusionment.”
RISE OF POLITI TICAL POLARIZATI TION
HO HOW W POLARIZ IZATON AFFECTS U.S. FOREIG IGN POLIC ICY
EBBING OF EXECUTI TIVE VE BRANCH CONSTR TRAINTS CONGRESS? JUDICIARY?
AS A RESULT… T…
CA CAN TH THIS BE BE RE REVERSE SED? D?
BU BUT… T…
HO HOW ENGAGED IS IS TH THE PUBLIC? • “When asked what the phrase ‘maintaining the liberal international order’ indicated to them, all but one of the participants in our focus group drew a blank.” Center for American Progress, “America Adrift,” May 2019
IN CONCLUSION…. …. • The liberal international order is not dead, but it’s not healthy either. • The problem is not Russia or China: it’s the United States. • Domestic political changes will make U.S. maintenance very difficult.
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