Ten Years for Agroecology in Europe Transition pathways towards a - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Ten Years for Agroecology in Europe Transition pathways towards a - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Ten Years for Agroecology in Europe Transition pathways towards a sustainable European food system CORE Organic January 2019 Contact : Pierre-Marie Aubert, Senior researcher and Lead, Food and Agriculture Policies Initiative, IDDRI

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Institut du développement durable et des relations internationales

27 rue Saint-Guillaume – 75337 Paris Cedex 07 - France

www.iddri.org

Ten Years for Agroecology in Europe Transition pathways towards a sustainable European food system

CORE Organic – January 2019

Contact : Pierre-Marie Aubert, Senior researcher and Lead, Food and Agriculture Policies Initiative, IDDRI pierremarie.aubert@iddri.org / +33 677 076 702 Xavier Poux, Associate researcher, IDDRI, Project director, AScA xavier.poux@asca-net.com / +33 142 008 673

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Présentation 2

§ The objectives and rationales of TYFA § Presentation of the macro-agronomic modelling developed so far § Outlook on the future work program (2019-2021)

The outline of our presentation

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Présentation 3

TYFA in a nutshell

§ TYFA : Ten Years For Agroecology § A plausible and desirable image in 2050: European agriculture is pesticide-free, biodiversity rich and procure healthy food § A pathway during which the first 10 years are crucial § A European project, i.e. for the European Union § Europe (the EU) needs to be apprehended as a consistent unit, notwithstanding its diversity

  • For agro-eco-geographical reasons (macro-agronomy approach)
  • For cultural reasons: food, landscapes
  • For economic and organisational reasons of its food system
  • For socio-political reasons
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Présentation 4

The European dimensions of TYFA

§ The issue of Agroecology is different in Europe when compared to the rest of the World: AE is likely to entail lower yields

  • Meta-analysis of Ponisio (2015) about yields of organic farming
  • Defending higher yields would be a inaudible position

§ Issues dealing with the internal organisation of the EU

  • See above

§ Issues dealing with the EU and the rest of the World

  • The EU imports the equivalent of 35% of its UAA: the World is feeding the

EU ; the issue of the industrial livestock sector

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Présentation 5

§ Production: does European agroecology produce enough to feed Europe without harnessing the rest of the World?

  • A sufficiency paradigm
  • Introducing a qualitative dimension

§ Socio-environmental: what are the overall impacts of AE?

  • Trade-off between the climate/carbon agenda and the biodiversity agenda

§ Socio-territorial debate: what are the impacts of AE on jobs?

  • Capital/labour intensity, about meaning of farming and eating

§ Socio-technical debate: what agricultural and food-system model? With what social consequences?

  • Issue about the nature and role of technologies in the development of

agricultural and food systems (low-tech vs. high-tech)

The debates that TYFA wants to contribute to

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Présentation 6

Agroecology and sustainable intensification

Yields Inputs Today SI1 SI2 SI3 AE 1 AE 2 ? Pesticides ? Biodiversity

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Présentation 7

§ A comprehensive analysis of production/consumption developments of European food system (use of FAO stats) § In short: the EU diet has followed the EU production rationale:

  • More meat and animal products (x 2 from 1960’s)
  • More sugars, shortage in vegetables and fibers
  • More cereal produced and used for industrial animal production
  • More proteins (soya) imported from the Americas for industrial animal

production

  • The EU is a net importer of 1/3 of the equivalent of its UAA out of which 1/5

is for soya only

§ Our excessive consumption broadly corresponds to the excessive production of the present industrial animal sector § In a sufficiency paradigm, it is logical and desirable to get rid of this production (in terms of quantity and nature)

Assessing the current situation for identifying levers

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Présentation 8

§ A need for quantification: at the end, does agroecology produce enough to feed Europe?

  • So far, no model addressing this specific question at this specific level with

this specific framing

§ A holistic model, an iterative approach for completing different cycles

A bio-physical model to contribute to the debate

Input Output

  • Diet
  • Crop production modes
  • Livestock production

modes

  • Waste
  • Non-food use
  • Nitrogen inputs to crops
  • Production by type of

products

  • Land-use
  • GHG emission
  • Biodiversity attribute
  • Nitrogen export by crops
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Présentation 9

  • 3. The TYFA scenario: the tested

hypothesis

Une gestion de la fertilité au niveau territorial qui passe par :

  • Reterritorialisation de l’élevage dans les zones de culture

et limitation de la compétition feed / food, entraînant

1 Fertility management at a territorial level

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Présentation 10

  • 3. The TYFA scenario (3): the tested

hypothesis

Une gestion de la fertilité au niveau territorial qui passe par :

  • Reterritorialisation de l’élevage dans les zones de culture

et limitation de la compétition feed / food, entraînant

Redéploiement des prairies naturelles sur l’ensemble du territoire

3

1 Fertility management at a territorial level 2 Pesticide-free farming and extensification of crop production

Organic farming is the reference model

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Présentation 11

  • 3. The TYFA scenario (3): the tested

hypothesis

Une gestion de la fertilité au niveau territorial qui passe par :

  • Reterritorialisation de l’élevage dans les zones de culture

et limitation de la compétition feed / food, entraînant

Redéploiement des prairies naturelles sur l’ensemble du territoire

3

2 Pesticide-free farming and extensification of crop production

Organic farming is the reference model

1 Fertility management at a territorial level 3 Redeployment of permanent grassland

and ecological focus areas

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Présentation 12

  • 3. The TYFA scenario (3): the tested

hypothesis

Une gestion de la fertilité au niveau territorial qui passe par :

  • Reterritorialisation de l’élevage dans les zones de culture

et limitation de la compétition feed / food, entraînant et limitation de la compétition feed / food, entraînant

Redéploiement des prairies naturelles sur l’ensemble du territoire

3

1 Fertility management at a territorial level 2 Pesticide-free farming and extensification of crop production

Organic farming is the reference model

3 Redeployment of permanent grassland

and ecological focus areas

4 Livestock extensification (phase-out of industrial modes)

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Présentation 13

  • 3. The TYFA scenario (3): the tested

hypothesis

Une gestion de la fertilité au niveau territorial qui passe par :

  • Reterritorialisation de l’élevage dans les zones de culture

et limitation de la compétition feed / food, entraînant et limitation de la compétition feed / food, entraînant

Redéploiement des prairies naturelles sur l’ensemble du territoire

3

1 Fertility management at a territorial level 2 Pesticide-free farming and extensification of crop production

Organic farming is the reference model

3 Redeployment of permanent grassland

and ecological focus areas

4 Livestock extensification (phase-out of industrial modes) 5 Healthy and sustainable diets

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Présentation 14

  • 3. The TYFA scenario (3): the tested

hypothesis

Une gestion de la fertilité au niveau territorial qui passe par :

  • Reterritorialisation de l’élevage dans les zones de culture

et limitation de la compétition feed / food, entraînant et limitation de la compétition feed / food, entraînant

Redéploiement des prairies naturelles sur l’ensemble du territoire

3

),

1 Fertility management at a territorial level 2 Pesticide-free farming and extensification of crop production

Organic farming is the reference model

3 Redeployment of permanent grassland

and ecological focus areas

4 Livestock extensification (phase-out of industrial modes) 5 Healthy and sustainable diets 6 Food first, then feed, then biodiversity, then non-food use

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Présentation 15

2050

Import Export Export Auxiliaires de cultures Agriculture agroécologique Alimentation des européens

  • 40 %

Maintien des exports

  • 30 %
  • 90%
  • 40%

Volume Qualité

GES

(en % calories)

  • 1

2 3

  • Boissons alcoolisées

(eq. alcool pur) Boissons non-alcoolisées Oeufs Produits laitiers (eq. lait) Pisciculture Viande Légumineuses graines Sucre Pommes de terre Fruits et légumes Cultures oléagineuses Céréales kcal/jour/pers. 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 2050 2010 Source : TYFAm.

  • Lait (matière sèche)

Œufs Volaille Viande de porc Ovins / caprins Viande de bœuf 2050 2010 Md kcal 20 40 60 80 100 120 140

  • Source : TYFAm.

Maïs fourrager et autres plantes fourragères légumineuses fourragères Prairies temporaires Prairies permanentes et pâturages légumineuses graines Betterave à sucre et plantes sarclées Pommes de terre Vignes (destinées au vin) Fruits Légumes frais Olives Cultures oléo-protéagineuses Céréales Trillions kcal 250 500 750 1000 1250 1500 1750 2000 2050 2010

  • Source : TYFAm.

Fabrication du matériel Aliments pour animaux (déforestation importée) Fabrication de l'azote et autres intrants Mise à disposition de l'énergie Stockage des effluents Fermentation entérique Sols agricoles (y.c. N20 lessivage et NH3) Consommation d'énergie MtCO2 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 2050 2010

  • 3. The TYFA scenario (4): main

results

Main results

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Présentation 16

Main objectives of the next steps

  • 1. Reinforcing our understanding of what could an

agroecological transition pathway in Europe look like

  • 2. Comparing contrasted pathways based either on AE
  • r on SI through a multidimensional assessment

framework, in order to feed in academic, societal and political debates regarding the future of our food system.

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Présentation 17

§ The First Step of TYFA : mainly relied on biophysical

modelling / ability to feed Europeans by 2050 while ensuring the closing of the nitrogen cycle.

§ Deepening the TYFA scenario :

  • reinforcing the agronomic analyses led so far and
  • developing a socio-economic and political

evaluation describing under which condition the AE scenario would be feasible / while comparing it to a SI scenario.

The next steps

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Présentation 18

§ (1) Biophysical and quantitative models

(e.g.: work led on nitrogen balance, European or global physical scenarios, etc.)

§ (2) Integrative assessment models combining

quantitative economic analyses and biophysical modelling

(e.g.: IMAGE or CAPRI -> often based on existing farm structures)

§ (3) Mainly qualitative work on social aspects

(e.g.: work led by GIRAF, IPES-food)

Scientific works related to agricultural transition

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Présentation 19

WP0 – Scenario development (AE and SI) WP1 Agronomy & environment WP2 Political economy and sociology of transition WP3 Socio-economic implications Organisation of work packages: a transdisciplinary and integrative appr WP4 – Debating in the public space

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Présentation 20

TYFA has been financially supported by

Thank you for your attention!

https://www.iddri.org/en/project/ten-years-agroecology-europe