Technology, Consumer Behavior, and Policy Evolution Sharyn Lie - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Demand and the Vehicle Revolution: Technology, Consumer Behavior, and Policy Evolution

Sharyn Lie Director, Climate Economics & Modeling Center Office of Transportation and Air Quality

September 24, 2018

Technology

Viable alternatives exist today

Source: https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/alternatives.shtml

Technology

Hype or Happening?

Source: http://www.ev-volumes.com/country/total-world- plug-in-vehicle-volumes/ Source: https://www.gartner.com/en/research/methodologies/gartner- hype-cycle

$800 $179 $100 $80 $- $100 $200 $300 $400 $500 $600 $700 $800 $900 2010 2020 2030 2040 $/kWh

Plugin Vehicle Battery Costs ($/kWh)

BNEF (Historical) NREL (Projection)

Technology Challenges:

Cost and Range Year

Adapted from: https://insideevs.com/study-60-percent-trips-less-6-miles Source data: National Household Travel Survey, 2017 https://nhts.ornl.gov/vehicle-trips

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 < 6 6-10 11-20 21-30 >30 Percent of Trips Miles

Distribution of Trips by Distance

Source Data: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-22/electric-cars-may-be-cheaper-than-gas- guzzlers-in-seven-years https://www.bnef.com/core/insights/17517/ https://www.nrel.gov/analysis/electrification-futures.html

Technology

Infrastructure: Limited but Growing

Sources: https://www.afdc.energy.gov/fuels/electricity_locations.h tml#/find/nearest?fuel=ELEC; www.electrifyamerica.com; http://westcoastgreenhighway.com/electrichighway.htm; https://kcpl.chargepoint.com/charge_point/

Technology

Systems Integration

https://www.creditloan.com/blog/average-american-spends-on-entertainment/ http://www.businessofapps.com/data/uber-statistics/

New York City Data

Source: https://whimapp.com/ Mobility as a Service (MAAS)

Source: http://sharedusemobilitycenter.org/

Policy Evolution