Teagasc National Farm Survey Preliminary Results 2017 Emma Dillon, - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Teagasc National Farm Survey Preliminary Results 2017

Emma Dillon, Brian Moran, John Lennon & Trevor Donnellan

Rural Economy Development Programme, Teagasc, Athenry, Co. Galway.

Outline

• 1. Family Farm Income Definition
• 2. Overview of Farm Income Results 2017
• Farm Systems Analysis
• Income Distribution
• Regional Results
• 3. Spotlight on Dairy
• 4. Receipt of Direct Payments 2017
• 5. Investment & Borrowings
• 6. Farm Demographics
• 7. Farm Viability
• 8. Conclusion

Family Farm Income 2017 - € per farm

€ 31,374

FFI

Family Farm Income 2015-2017

€ 0K € 10K € 20K € 30K 2015 2016 2017

€ 26,303 € 31,374 € 23,847 Family Farm Income (€) 2005 - 2017

10K 15K 20K 25K 30K 35K 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

24.2K 31.4K 13.7K 30.1K 23.5K 18.8K 23.8K 25.0K 26.3K 25.4K 19.9K 23.2K

Family Farm Income Definition

Calculated by deducting all farm costs from total gross output. Family labour is not included as a cost so FFI is the return to family labour, management and investment.

Population by FarmSystem 32% 23% 18% 15% Tillage 9% CattleOther CattleRearing Dairying Sheep Breakdown of the NFS Farm Population FarmSystem Population CattleOther CattleRearing Dairying Sheep Tillage MixedLivestock 27,286 19,691 15,639 12,758 7,387 1,838 Total 84,599

Family Farm Income Distribution 2017

35% earn less than €10,000 7% of farms earn in excess of €100,000 Major differences accross Farming Systems

Income Distribution 2017 - All Farm Systems 10-30K < 10K 30 -50K 50-100K >100K 35 % 35 % 11 % 13 % 7 % Income Distribution Cattle Rearing Farms 2017 10-30K 37 % < 10K 53 % 30 -50K 8 % Income Distribution Dairy Farms 2017 10-30K 11 % < 10K 3 % 30 -50K 17 % 50-100K 40 % >100K 30 %

Family Farm Income per Farm by System 2016-2017

€ 0K € 20K € 40K € 60K € 80K € 100K Dairying Tillage CattleOther Sheep CattleRearing

€ 52,155 € 30,840 € 16,853 € 15,708 € 12,516 € 86,115 € 37,158 € 16,651 € 16,897 € 12,680

Year 2016 2017

Family Farm Income per Annual Work Unit by System 2016-2017

€ 0K € 20K € 40K € 60K Dairying Tillage CattleOther Sheep CattleRearing

€ 40,252 € 36,355 € 23,956 € 14,312 € 15,545 € 66,558 € 45,645 € 25,751 € 16,916 € 15,276

Year 2016 2017

Family Labour Units by Farm System 2017

100% 66.2%

Dairying Sheep CattleRearing Tillage CattleOther 1.39 1.09 0.96 0.93 0.92

Population by Farm System 2017 27.3K 19.7K 15.6K 12.8K Tillage 7.4K CattleOther CattleRearing Dairying Sheep

New NUTS Regions - Jan 2018 Geographical Classification for sub-division of EU countries Change from 2 to 3 Regions for Ireland: Eastern & Midland / Northern & Western / Southern Northern & Western FarmSystem Population U.A.A FFI FFI per ha AllFarms CattleOther CattleRearing Dairying Sheep Tillage 29,789 9,800 9,643 2,229 7,750 170 35.8 29.9 32.3 49.6 41.5 82.8 € 16,164 € 12,436 € 9,881 € 62,860 € 14,640 € 24,760 € 440 € 407 € 310 € 1,228 € 418 € 393 Southern FarmSystem Population U.A.A FFI FFI per ha AllFarms CattleOther CattleRearing Dairying Sheep Tillage 38,027 10,133 7,834 11,478 3,445 4,096 49.9 41.9 35.7 55.8 69.9 58.4 € 41,499 € 19,789 € 14,394 € 87,270 € 18,532 € 30,542 € 841 € 502 € 387 € 1,623 € 520 € 563 Eastern & Midland FarmSystem Population U.A.A FFI FFI per ha AllFarms CattleOther CattleRearing Dairying Sheep Tillage 17,028 6,917 2,650 1,932 2,346 2,799 49.8 39.5 41.6 65.2 45.8 69.2 € 34,012 € 16,571 € 18,136 € 105,753 € 22,621 € 45,535 € 597 € 362 € 433 € 1,650 € 541 € 618

FarmSystem

All

Focus on Dairy

Average Dairy Farm Income 2017 - € per Farm

€ 86,115

FFI

Dairying Income € 2015-2017

€ 0K € 10K € 20K € 30K € 40K € 50K € 60K € 70K € 80K € 90K 2015 2016 2017

€ 62,141 € 86,115 € 52,155

Farm Characteristics Year Age of Holder Dairy Cows Family Labour Units Total Area Area Owned U.A.A FFI per ha 2017 52 75 1.39 58.6 45.3 56.3 € 1,545 FFI (€) per Cow

€ 1,136

Farm Investment (€) 2017 per Farm

€ 25,118

Gross New Investment Soil Types

Soil Group (1) Soil Group (2) Soil Group (3)

Dairying System Results National

Output & Margin cent per litre of milk 2015-2017 YE_AR Milk Price Total Costs Net Margin 2015 2016 2017 30.93 27.88 36.89 22.41 21.75 22.78 9.74 6.64 14.86

Selected Dairy Techncial performance Indicators 2015 - 2017 YE_AR Grazing days Concentrate Kg per Cow Milk sales per ha (lt) Milk Yield per Cow (lt) Herd SCC Milk solids per cow (kg) 2015 2016 2017 242 235 235 913 932 1027 10764 10994 11352 5403 5303 5436 181 170 166 395 392 403 Dairy Stocking Rate 2015-2017 YE_AR Cows per ha - Avg Cows per ha - Btm Cows per ha - Mid Cow per ha - Top 2015 2016 2017 1.98 2.06 2.08 1.53 1.62 1.66 2.00 2.03 2.06 2.45 2.52 2.52 Financial performance per hectare 2017 by Region

€ 0 € 1,000 € 2,000 € 3,000 € 4,000 Eastern & Midland Northern & Western Southern

€ 3,975 € 3,448 € 3,773 € 1,316 € 1,349 € 1,274 € 2,659 € 2,099 € 2,500 € 1,009 € 870 € 876 € 1,650 € 1,228 € 1,623

Gross_Output_ha Direct_Costs_ha Gross_Margin_ha Overhead_Costs_ha FFI per ha

Dairying System Results National

Dairying Income per ha by Region € 2015-2017

€ 0 € 200 € 400 € 600 € 800 € 1,000 € 1,200 € 1,400 € 1,600 € 1,800 2015 2016 2017

€ 1,072 € 1,650 € 937 € 734 € 1,228 € 699 € 1,278 € 1,623 € 1,020 NUTS_II_Code Eastern & Midland Northern & Western Southern Farm Characteristics by Region 2017 NUTS_II_Code Dairy Cows Family Labour Units Total Area Area Owned U.A.A FFI Eastern & Midland Southern Northern & Western 96 73 63 1.27 1.40 1.43 68.7 57.4 52.6 50.0 45.6 40.3 65.2 55.8 49.6 € 105,753 € 87,270 € 62,860 Dairy Population by Region 2017 Southern 73.39% 14.25% 12.35% Northern & Western Eastern & Midland Change in cow number 2010 -2017 NUTS_II_Code 2010 - CSO 2017 - CSO % change Eastern & Midland National Northern & Western Southern 161,060 1,070,755 130,711 778,984 229,600 1,432,700 163,900 1,039,200 43 % 34 % 25 % 33 %

Dairying System Results Regional Comparision

Finanical performance per hectare 2015-2017

€ 0 € 1,000 € 2,000 € 3,000 € 4,000 NUTS_II_Code Eastern & Midland Northern & Western Southern

€ 3,975 € 3,448 € 3,773 € 1,316 € 1,349 € 1,274 € 2,659 € 2,099 € 2,500 € 1,009 € 870 € 876 € 1,650 € 1,228 € 1,623

Gross_Output_ha Direct_Costs_ha Gross_Margin_ha Overhead_Costs_ha FFI per ha

Selected Dairy Techncial performance Indicators NUTS_II_Code Grazing days Concentrate Kg per Cow Milk sales per ha (lt) Milk Yield per Cow (lt) Herd SCC Milk solids per cow (kg) Southern Northern & Western Eastern & Midland 242 212 237 941 1372 981 11490 10179 11855 5468 5410 5353 173 154 160 407 396 395 Dairy Stocking Rate NUTS_II_Code Cows per ha - Avg Southern Northern & Western Eastern & Midland 2.09 1.89 2.21

Dairying System Results NUTSII Region

Output & Margin cent per litre of milk Milk Price Total Costs Net Margin 36.93 36.31 37.23 21.99 25.42 23.04 15.61 12.17 14.62

Dairy Expansion Post Quota Removal 2014-2017

% Change in Milk Supply 2014 -2017 Up by 10-20% Up by <10% Up by 30-50% >50% Up by 20-30% Lower Deliveries

Cow Numbers by expansion category 2017 >50% Up by 30-50% Up by 20-30% Up by 10-20% Up by <10% Lower Deliveries 111 91 79 62 59 45 % Change in FFI 2014-2017

0% 50% 100% >50% Up by 30-50% Up by 10-20% Up by 20-30% Up by <10% Lower Deliveries

95.00%

• 4.00%

27.00% 27.00% 8.00% 32.00%

FFI by expansion category 2017

0K 50K 100K 150K >50% Up by 30-50% Up by 20-30% Up by 10-20% Up by <10% Lower Deliveries

Dairying Expansion

Debt to Income Ratio by expansion category 2017

0.0 0.5 1.0 >50% Up by 30-50% Up by 20-30% Up by <10% Lower Deliveries Up by 10-20%

% Change in FFI and % change in debt 2014 - 2017

0% 50% 100% >50% Up by 30-50% Up by 10-20% Up by 20-30% Up by <10% Lower Deliveries

Change in FFI %change in Debt

Average Debt per cow (€) by expansion category 2017

500 1,000 >50% Up by 30-50% Up by 20-30% Up by <10% Lower Deliveries Up by 10-20%

1337 984 869 687 489 368

Funding Dairying Expansion

Focus on Cattle Farms

Average Cattle Rearing Farm Income 2017 - € per Farm

€ 12,680

Cattle Rearing Income € 2015-2017

€ 0K € 5K € 10K € 15K 2015 2016 2017

€ 12,660 € 12,680 € 12,516 € 13,148 € 14,381 € 14,400

FFI Direct Payments / Subs

Main Drivers

Output up 5% Direct payments - unchanged Overall Costs up 7%

• feed expenditure up 16%
• fertilser expenditure down 2%

Investment down 19%

Direct payments breakdown

CattleRearing 9.0K 1.8K 1.7K 1.2K BPS DAS GLAS/AEOS Sheep Welfare BDGP Dairy Schemes Protein Payment Forestry KT scheme Organics Scheme Other

Cattle Rearing System Results National

Cattle Rearing Income 2017

€ 0K € 5K € 10K € 15K € 20K € 18,136 € 12,680 € 9,881 € 14,394 NUTS_II_Code Eastern & Midland National Northern & Western Southern

Farm Characteristics 2017 NUTS_II_Code Age of Holder Direct Payments / Subs Direct_Payments_Subs_ha Southern Eastern & Midland National Northern & Western 61 59 56 49 € 14,411 € 16,775 € 14,381 € 14,003 € 406 € 392 € 421 € 447 Cattle Rearing - Regional Focus 2017 NUTS_II_Code U.A.A FFI FFI per ha Eastern & Midland National Northern & Western Southern 41.6 34.8 32.3 35.7 € 18,136 € 12,680 € 9,881 € 14,394 € 433 € 353 € 310 € 387 No of Cattle Rearing farms by region 2017 3K 10K 8K

NUTS_II_Code Eastern & Midland Northern & Western Southern

Cattle Rearing System Results Regional

Average Cattle Other Farm Income 2017 - € per Farm

€ 16,651

Cattle Other Income € 2015-2017

€ 0K € 5K € 10K € 15K € 20K 2015 2016 2017

€ 16,319 € 16,651 € 16,853 € 15,851 € 16,044 € 16,209

FFI Direct Payments / Subs

Main Drivers

Output unchanged Direct payments - unchanged

• BPS down, GLAS is up

Overall Costs unchanged

• concentrate expenditure up 13%
• fertiliser expenditure down 8%

Investment down 12%

Direct payments breakdown

CattleOther 11.2K 1.7K 1.7K 0.5K BPS DAS GLAS/AEOS BDGP Sheep Welfare Dairy Schemes Protein Payment Forestry KT scheme Organics Scheme Other

Cattle Other System Results National

Cattle Other Income 2017

€ 0K € 5K € 10K € 15K € 20K € 16,571 € 16,651 € 12,436 € 19,789 NUTS_II_Code Eastern & Midland National Northern & Western Southern

Farm Characteristics NUTS_II_Code Age of Holder Direct Payments / Subs Direct_Payments_Subs_ha Eastern & Midland National Northern & Western Southern 62 58 50 60 € 16,232 € 16,044 € 13,715 € 17,949 € 393 € 437 € 458 € 458 Cattle Other- Regional Focus NUTS_II_Code U.A.A FFI FFI per ha Eastern & Midland National Northern & Western Southern 39.5 36.9 29.9 41.9 € 16,571 € 16,651 € 12,436 € 19,789 € 362 € 438 € 407 € 502 Cattle Other Population by region 2017 7K 10K 10K

NUTS_II_Code Eastern & Midland Northern & Western Southern

Cattle Other System Results Regional

Focus on Sheep

Average Sheep Farm Income 2017 - € per Farm

€ 16,897

Sheep system Income € 2015-2017

€ 0K € 5K € 10K € 15K € 20K 2015 2016 2017

€ 16,137 € 16,897 € 15,708 € 17,609 € 19,112 € 17,946

FFI Direct Payments / Subs

Main Drivers

Output unchanged Direct payments - up 6%

• New sheep welfare scheme & GLAS

Overall Costs down 4%

• concentrate expenditure down 7%
• fertiliser expenditure down 12%

Investment up 37%

Direct payments breakdown

Sheep 11.9K 2.4K 2.4K 0.9K 0.6K 0.5K BPS DAS GLAS/AEOS Sheep Welfare BDGP Dairy Schemes Protein Payment Forestry KT scheme Organics Scheme Other

Sheep System Results National

Focus on Tillage

Average Tillage Farm Income 2017 - € per Farm

€ 37,158

Tillage Income € 2015-2017

€ 0K € 10K € 20K € 30K € 40K 2015 2016 2017

€ 34,303 € 37,158 € 30,840 € 24,385 € 23,994 € 26,331

FFI Direct Payments / Subs

Main Drivers

Land Area is down per farm

• lower conacre area

Improved Prices & yields Direct payments - down Overall Costs down 15%

• fertiliser expenditure down
• crop protection expenditure down

Investment down significantly

Direct payments breakdown

Tillage 20.3K 2.0K BPS DAS GLAS/AEOS Sheep Welfare BDGP Dairy Schemes Protein Payment Forestry KT scheme Organics Scheme Other

Tillage System Results National

Direct Payment per hectare 2017 FarmSystem Direct Payments per Ha Tillage Sheep Dairying CattleRearing CattleOther AllFarms € 392 € 365 € 347 € 413 € 435 € 390 Pillar II - Breakdown by Farm System 2017

0K 1K 2K 3K 4K 5K 6K 7K 8K

Tillage Sheep Dairying CattleRearing CattleOther

0.4K 2.4K 1.6K 1.8K 1.7K 2.0K 2.4K 0.6K 1.7K 1.7K 0.6K 1.2K 0.5K 0.9K 0.2K 0.3K 0.3K 0.3K 0.4K 0.2K 0.5K 0.3K 0.3K

DAS GLAS/AEOS BDGP Sheep Welfare Dairy Schemes Forestry KT scheme Organics Scheme Other

Direct payments breakdown by Pillar 2017

Tillage Sheep Dairying CattleRearing CattleOther

20.6K 11.9K 16.1K 9.0K 11.2K 3.4K 7.2K 3.4K 5.4K 4.8K

Pillar I Pillar II

Farm Investment & Farm Related Debt

Gross New Investment by Year - Average by FarmSystem

€ 0K € 5K € 10K € 15K € 20K € 25K € 30K 2015 2016 2017

€ 9.3K € 9.6K € 8.5K € 5.7K € 4.7K € 5.3K € 4.5K € 4.9K € 6.1K € 19.3K € 25.1K € 16.4K € 4.6K € 5.6K € 4.1K € 13.8K € 8.3K € 14.6K

FarmSystem AllFarms CattleOther CattleRearing Dairying Sheep Tillage

€806 million invested by farmers in 2017 17% increase on 2016 50% of Overall Investment was by Dairy Farmers

Investment Type by region 2017 (€)

0K 10K 20K 30K 40K 2017 Eastern & Midland 2017 Northern & Western 2017 Southern

Power Machinery Investment Other Machinery Investment Buildings Investment Land Improvement Inv…

Investment Type 2017 - All Farms 35% 23% 33% 8% Power Machinery Investment Other Machinery Investment Buildings Investment Land Improvement Investment

Avg Debt, Farms with Debt and FFI of farms with Debt by FarmSystem

0K 20K 40K 60K 80K 100K Tillage Sheep Dairying CattleRearing CattleOther AllFarms

Avg Debt Farms with Debt FFI of farms with Debt

64% of farms have no farm related debt Overall debt level is down slightly - 4% 60% of dairy farms have debt

Off-farm job - holder and Off-farm job - holder/spouse by Year

30 40 50 60 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Off-farm job - holder Off-farm job - holder/spouse

Farm Demographics

Average age of operator is 56 Average Household size 2.8 persons per Household Largest Household size Dairy farms (3.3) Smallest CattleOther (2.5) 34% of farms have a Household member aged less than 24 51% of Dairy farms have a Household member less than 24 51% of Households have employment off-farm (holder &/or spouse) 27% of Households in receipt of pension

Viability of Irish Farming 2017 Sustainable Viable Vulnerable Farm Viability by Farm System 2017

50 100 FarmSystem CattleRearing CattleOther Sheep Tillage Dairying

39 32 30 16 6 21 32 28 75 85 40 37 42 9 9

Sustainable Viable Vulnerable Farm Viability by Region 2017

50 100 Northern & Western Eastern & Midland Southern

43 21 20 22 49 55 35 30 26

Sustainable Viable Vulnerable Viable A farm business is viable if the farm income can remunerate family labour at the minimum agricultural wage and provide a 5% return

• n the capital invested in non-land assets.

Sustainable If the farm business is not viable the household is still considered sustainable if the farmer or spouse has an

• ff-farm income.

Vulnerable A farm household is considered to be economically vulnerable if the farm business is not viable and if neither the farmer nor spouse work off the farm.