Teagasc National Farm Survey Preliminary Results 2017 Emma Dillon, - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Teagasc National Farm Survey Preliminary Results 2017 Emma Dillon, Brian Moran, John Lennon & Trevor Donnellan Rural Economy Development Programme, Teagasc, Athenry, Co. Galway.

Outline 1. Family Farm Income Definition 2. Overview of Farm Income Results 2017 -Farm Systems Analysis -Income Distribution -Regional Results 3. Spotlight on Dairy 4. Receipt of Direct Payments 2017 5. Investment & Borrowings 6. Farm Demographics 7. Farm Viability 8. Conclusion

Breakdown of the NFS Farm Population Population by FarmSystem Family Farm Income 2017 - € per farm FarmSystem Population € 31,374 CattleOther CattleOther 27,286 Tillage 9% 32% FFI Sheep CattleRearing 19,691 15% Dairying 15,639 Sheep 12,758 Family Farm Income Definition Tillage 7,387 Calculated by deducting all farm costs from total gross output. Family labour is not included as a cost MixedLivestock 1,838 so FFI is the return to family labour, management Total 84,599 and investment. Dairying CattleRearing 18% 23% Family Farm Income 2015-2017 Family Farm Income ( € ) 2005 - 2017 35K € 31,374 31.4K 30.1K € 30K 30K € 26,303 26.3K € 23,847 25.4K 24.2K 23.5K 25K 23.2K 25.0K € 20K 23.8K 19.9K 20K 18.8K 15K € 10K 13.7K 10K 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 € 0K 2015 2016 2017

Family Farm Income Distribution 2017 Income Distribution 2017 - All Farm Systems < 10K 10-30K 50-100K 30 -50K 35% earn less than € 10,000 7% of farms earn in excess of € 100,000 Major differences accross Farming Systems 13 % 11 % >100K 35 % 35 % 7 % Income Distribution Dairy Farms 2017 Income Distribution Cattle Rearing Farms 2017 10-30K 11 % 30 -50K 8 % < 10K 3 % >100K 30 % 10-30K 37 % 30 -50K 17 % < 10K 53 % 50-100K 40 %

Family Farm Income per Farm by System 2016-2017 Population by Farm System 2017 Year 2016 2017 € 100K CattleOther € 86,115 Tillage 7.4K 27.3K € 80K Sheep € 60K € 52,155 12.8K € 40K € 30,840 € 37,158 € 16,853 € 15,708 € 20K € 12,516 Dairying € 16,897 € 16,651 € 12,680 15.6K € 0K CattleRearing Dairying Tillage CattleOther Sheep CattleRearing 19.7K Family Farm Income per Annual Work Unit by System 2016-2017 Family Labour Units by Farm System 2017 Year 2016 2017 100% € 66,558 Dairying 1.39 € 60K € 45,645 Sheep 1.09 € 40,252 € 36,355 € 40K CattleRearing 0.96 € 23,956 Tillage 0.93 € 25,751 € 15,545 € 20K € 14,312 € 16,916 € 15,276 CattleOther 0.92 € 0K Dairying Tillage CattleOther Sheep CattleRearing 66.2%

Northern & Western New NUTS Regions - Jan 2018 FarmSystem Population U.A.A FFI FFI per ha Geographical Classification for sub-division of EU countries Change from 2 to 3 Regions for Ireland: AllFarms 29,789 35.8 € 16,164 € 440 Eastern & Midland / Northern & Western / Southern CattleOther 9,800 29.9 € 12,436 € 407 CattleRearing 9,643 32.3 € 9,881 € 310 Dairying 2,229 49.6 € 62,860 € 1,228 Sheep 7,750 41.5 € 14,640 € 418 Tillage 170 82.8 € 24,760 € 393 Eastern & Midland FarmSystem Population U.A.A FFI FFI per ha AllFarms 17,028 49.8 € 34,012 € 597 CattleOther 6,917 39.5 € 16,571 € 362 CattleRearing 2,650 41.6 € 18,136 € 433 Southern Dairying 1,932 65.2 € 105,753 € 1,650 FarmSystem Population U.A.A FFI FFI per ha Sheep 2,346 45.8 € 22,621 € 541 AllFarms 38,027 49.9 € 41,499 € 841 Tillage 2,799 69.2 € 45,535 € 618 CattleOther 10,133 41.9 € 19,789 € 502 CattleRearing 7,834 35.7 € 14,394 € 387 FarmSystem Dairying 11,478 55.8 € 87,270 € 1,623 All Sheep 3,445 69.9 € 18,532 € 520 Tillage 4,096 58.4 € 30,542 € 563

Focus on Dairy

Average Dairy Farm Income 2017 - € per Farm FFI ( € ) per Cow Dairying System Results € 86,115 € 1,136 National FFI Dairying Income € 2015-2017 Output & Margin cent per litre of milk 2015-2017 Farm Investment ( € ) 2017 per Farm € 90K YE_AR Milk Price Total Costs Net Margin € 86,115 € 80K € 25,118 2015 30.93 22.41 9.74 € 70K 2016 27.88 21.75 6.64 Gross New Investment € 62,141 2017 36.89 22.78 14.86 € 60K € 52,155 € 50K Soil Types € 40K € 30K Soil Group (3) € 20K Soil Group (2) € 10K € 0K 2015 2016 2017 Farm Characteristics Soil Group (1) Year Age of Holder Dairy Cows Family Labour Units Total Area Area Owned U.A.A FFI per ha 2017 52 75 1.39 58.6 45.3 56.3 € 1,545

Dairy Stocking Rate 2015-2017 Dairying System YE_AR Cows per ha - Avg Cows per ha - Btm Cows per ha - Mid Cow per ha - Top Results National 2015 1.98 1.53 2.00 2.45 2016 2.06 1.62 2.03 2.52 2017 2.08 1.66 2.06 2.52 Financial performance per hectare 2017 by Region Gross_Output_ha Direct_Costs_ha Gross_Margin_ha Overhead_Costs_ha FFI per ha € 4,000 € 3,448 € 3,975 € 3,773 € 3,000 € 2,659 € 2,500 € 2,099 € 2,000 € 1,650 € 1,623 € 1,349 € 1,316 € 1,274 € 1,228 € 1,009 € 1,000 € 870 € 876 € 0 Eastern & Midland Northern & Western Southern Selected Dairy Techncial performance Indicators 2015 - 2017 YE_AR Grazing days Concentrate Kg per Cow Milk sales per ha (lt) Milk Yield per Cow (lt) Herd SCC Milk solids per cow (kg) 2015 242 913 10764 5403 181 395 2016 235 932 10994 5303 170 392 2017 235 1027 11352 5436 166 403

Dairying System Farm Characteristics by Region 2017 Results NUTS_II_Code Dairy Cows Family Total Area Area Owned U.A.A FFI Labour Units Regional Comparision Eastern & Midland 96 1.27 68.7 50.0 65.2 € 105,753 Southern 73 1.40 57.4 45.6 55.8 € 87,270 Northern & Western 63 1.43 52.6 40.3 49.6 € 62,860 Dairying Income per ha by Region € 2015-2017 Change in cow number 2010 -2017 NUTS_II_Code 2010 - CSO 2017 - CSO % change NUTS_II_Code Eastern & Midland Northern & Western Southern € 1,800 Eastern & Midland 161,060 229,600 43 % € 1,650 € 1,623 National 1,070,755 1,432,700 34 % € 1,600 Northern & Western 130,711 163,900 25 % € 1,400 € 1,278 Southern 778,984 1,039,200 33 % € 1,228 € 1,200 € 1,072 € 1,020 Dairy Population by Region 2017 € 937 € 1,000 Eastern & Midland € 734 12.35% € 800 € 699 Northern & Western € 600 14.25% € 400 Southern 73.39% € 200 € 0 2015 2016 2017

Dairying System Dairy Stocking Rate Output & Margin cent per litre of milk Results Milk Price Total Costs Net Margin NUTS_II_Code Cows per ha - Avg NUTSII Region Southern 2.09 36.93 21.99 15.61 Northern & Western 1.89 36.31 25.42 12.17 Eastern & Midland 2.21 37.23 23.04 14.62 Finanical performance per hectare 2015-2017 Gross_Output_ha Direct_Costs_ha Gross_Margin_ha Overhead_Costs_ha FFI per ha € 4,000 € 3,448 € 3,975 € 3,773 € 3,000 € 2,659 € 2,500 € 2,099 € 2,000 € 1,650 € 1,623 € 1,316 € 1,349 € 1,274 € 1,228 € 1,009 € 1,000 € 870 € 876 € 0 Eastern & Midland Northern & Western Southern NUTS_II_Code Selected Dairy Techncial performance Indicators NUTS_II_Code Grazing days Concentrate Kg per Cow Milk sales per ha (lt) Milk Yield per Cow (lt) Herd SCC Milk solids per cow (kg) Southern 242 941 11490 5468 173 407 Northern & Western 212 1372 10179 5410 154 396 Eastern & Midland 237 981 11855 5353 160 395

Dairy Expansion Post Quota Removal 2014-2017 % Change in Milk Supply 2014 -2017 Lower Deliveries Up by 10-20% Up by 20-30% Up by <10% >50% Up by 30-50%

Cow Numbers by expansion category 2017 >50% 111 Dairying Expansion Up by 30-50% 91 Up by 20-30% 79 FFI by expansion category 2017 Up by 10-20% 62 150K Up by <10% 59 100K Lower Deliveries 45 % Change in FFI 2014-2017 100% 50K 95.00% 0K 50% >50% Up by Up by Up by Up by Lower 30-50% 20-30% 10-20% <10% Deliveries 32.00% 27.00% 27.00% 8.00% 0% -4.00% >50% Up by Up by Up by Up by <10% Lower 30-50% 10-20% 20-30% Deliveries

% Change in FFI and % change in debt 2014 - 2017 Change in FFI %change in Debt Funding Dairying >50% Expansion Up by 30-50% Up by 10-20% Average Debt per cow ( € ) by expansion category 2017 Up by 20-30% Up by <10% Lower Deliveries >50% 1337 0% 50% 100% Up by 30-50% 984 Debt to Income Ratio by expansion category 2017 Up by 20-30% 869 1.0 Up by <10% 687 0.5 Lower Deliveries 489 Up by 10-20% 368 0.0 >50% Up by Up by Up by <10% Lower Up by 30-50% 20-30% Deliveries 10-20% 0 500 1,000

Focus on Cattle Farms

Average Cattle Rearing Farm Income 2017 - € per Farm Cattle Rearing System Results € 12,680 National Cattle Rearing Income € 2015-2017 Main Drivers FFI Direct Payments / Subs Output up 5% € 15K € 14,381 Direct payments - unchanged € 12,660 € 12,680 € 12,516 € 13,148 Overall Costs up 7% € 10K - feed expenditure up 16% - fertilser expenditure down 2% € 14,400 € 5K Investment down 19% € 0K 2015 2016 2017 Direct payments breakdown BPS DAS GLAS/AEOS Sheep Welfare BDGP Dairy Schemes Protein Payment Forestry KT scheme Organics Scheme Other CattleRearing 9.0K 1.8K 1.7K 1.2K