TAURON Groups Q1 2019 Financial Results May 28, 2019 tauron.pl - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
TAURON Groups Q1 2019 Financial Results May 28, 2019 tauron.pl Agenda a Key financial and operating data Filip Grzegorczyk Highlights CEO Investment projects and CAPEX Macroeconomic and market situation Marek
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May 28, 2019
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Filip Grzegorczyk CEO
Marek Wadowski CFO
situation
individual segments
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Financial results
[PLN m]
Q1 2019 vs Q1 2018
Sales revenue
5 313 15%
EBITDA
1 212 (9)%
Net profit*
524 (18)%
CAPEX
727 20%
Net debt/EBITDA
2.74x
up 0.2x
(vs 31.12.2018)
Operating data
Q1 2019 vs Q1 2018
Electricity distribution [TWh]
13.54 1%
Electricity production [TWh]
3.82 (3)%
Heat generation [PJ]
4.76 (16)%
Retail electricity supply [TWh]
8.93 (4)%
Commercial coal production [ton m]
1.26 (11)%
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* Attributable to the shareholders of the parent company
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January 10 Launching of the first stationary electric vehicles charging station in cooperation with KGHM Q1 Connecting to the power grid of almost 2.5 thousand renewable energy sources with the total capacity of approximately 35 MW (above 100 percent growth rate y/y) April 17 Affirming by Fitch Ratings of the BBB long term ratings in the domestic and foreign currency with a stable
domestic rating April Commencement of regular hard coal shipments to the 910 MW power generating unit at Jaworzno May 8 Ordinary General Meeting of TAURON Polska Energia S.A.
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Source: * GUS ** Bankier.pl ***PSE
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21,84 20,57 12,28 11,01 2,60 2,82 4,02 5,53 2,80 2,78 10 20 30 40 50 Q1 2018 Q1 2019 Industrial power plants Renewable energy sources Gas-fired thermal power plants Lignite-fired thermal power plants Hard coal-fired thermal power plants 42,71 43,54
50,2% 28,2% 6,0% 9,2% 6,4% 48,2% 25,8% 6,6% 13,0% 6,5%
8,4%
37,5%
Structure of electricity production in Poland*** [TWh]
3,8% 3,3% 3,6% 4,6% 3,1% 3,4% 2,7%2,7% 4,4% 4,0% 5,2% 4,9%5,3% 5,1% 5,1% 4,9% 4,6%
48 50 52 54 56 58
0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 PMI PKB
Poland’s GDP growth rate* and manufacturing PMI (quarterly average)**
GDP growth rate Manufacturing PMI
5,3% 3,9% 4,3% 6,0% 3,0% 5,7% 2,5% 1,5% 7,3% 4,2% 6,4% 8,5% 5,5% 7,0% 5,3% 5,5% 6,1%
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Increase of industrial production sold* and electricity consumption (change yoy)***
Sold production growth Domestic electricity consumption change
Electricity prices under one-year BASE contracts
Average price [PLN/MWh] Volume [GWh] Y-13 191,60 108 861 Y-14 160,40 142 841 Y-15 168,11 146 932 Y-16 166,47 147 923 Y-17 160,27 76 729 Y-18 165,98 65 227 Y-19 237,44 133 170 Y-20 261,14 45 123 Y-21 260,73 3 609 Average electricity sales prices on the competitive market (acc. to ERO):
163.58 PLN/MWh
169.99 PLN/MWh
169.70 PLN/MWh
163.70 PLN/MWh
194.30 PLN/MWh
250.00 PLN/MWh (estimate)
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Net profit attributable to the parent company’s shareholders [PLN m] Q1 2019 EBITDA vs Q1 2018 EBITDA [PLN m]
1 326 1 096 1 161 1 212
200 400 600 800 1 000 1 200 1 400 Reported Q1 2018 EBITDA Dissolving of the provision related to the employee benefits in the Generation Segment Comparable Q1 2018 EBITDA Comparable Q1 2019 EBITDA Consumption of the provision related to the agreements giving rise to charges Reported Q1 2019 EBITDA
Sales revenue [PLN m]
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2 417 3 114 1 589 1 593 258 236 155 96 70 101 147 173 Electricity Distribution and trading services Heat Hard coal Gas Other revenue
4 637 5 313 636 524
Q1 2018 Q1 2019 100 200 300 400 500 600 700
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[PLN m] Distribution Generation Supply Mining
Other
and exclusions*
Revenue
EBITDA
EBIT
CAPEX
* Items not included in the segments presented
Individual segments’ contribution to EBITDA [%]
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3%
35% 32% 47% 56% 14% 14% 0,1% 2%
1 326 1 212
200 400 600 800 1 000 1 200 1 400 1 600 Q1 2018 Q1 2019
Other and exclusions Supply Distribution Generation Mining
PLN m
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1 326 1 212
53 23
28,6% 40,5% 27,8% 4,2%
17,9% 22,8% 200 400 600 800 1 000 1 200 1 400 1 600 1 800 Q1 2018 EBITDA Distribution Generation Supply Mining Other and exclusions Q1 2019 EBITDA
EBITDA Segment's increase Segment's decrease EBITDA margin
PLN m
PLN (114)m, (9)%
*
*Other operations segment’s EBITDA margin
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369 387 259 294 4 6 47 2 1
628 681 200 400 600 800 Q1 2018 Price Volume Purchase of DSO/TSO services Cost of grid losses Other distribution services Other Q1 2019
EBITDA change [PLN m]
EBIT depreciation and impairment charges
Electricity distribution [TWh]
13,42 13,54
* Neighboring DSOs and exports Financial data [PLN m]
President of ERO
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1 571 1 681 628 681 369 387 269 351 1 000 2 000 Q1 2018 Q1 2019 Sales revenue EBITDA EBIT CAPEX 3,56 3,53 4,72 4,66 2,05 2,02 2,76 2,71 0,45 0,50 Q1 2019 Q1 2018 5 10 Group A Group B Group C2+C1+R+D Group G Other*
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16,3 16,9 17,5 5 10 15 20
2017 2018 2019
Regulatory Asset Base [PLN bn]
13,2 17,8 20,2 53,9 24,8 28,3 34,6 82,8 20 40 60 80
big cities city counties
villages
Interruption Duration Time [min/consumer]
Q1 2019 Q1 2019 target
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93,50% 99,23% 93,30% 99,30% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
CRP gr. IV CRP gr. V
Customer Connection Time [%]
LTM 2019 LTM 2019 target 0,21 0,32 0,42 1,05 0,38 0,44 0,65 1,39 0,0 0,3 0,6 0,9 1,2 1,5
big cities city counties
villages
Frequency of Interruptions [no. of interruptions/ consumer]
Q1 2019 Q1 2019 target
LTM – last 12 months’ period ending on March 31, 2019
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EBITDA change [PLN m]
465 387 89 45 49
200 400 600
Q1 2018 Margin on electricity (conventional) Margin on electricity (RES) Margin on heat Provision related to employee benefits Other Q1 2019
Financial data [PLN m]
by hydroelectric power plants and wind farms
CO2 emission allowances
production and partial passing on the increase of the prices of fuels and CO2 in the heat tariffs
0,09 0,11 0,12 0,11 0,17 0,65 0,54
0,0 0,1 0,2 0,3 0,4 0,5 0,6 0,7
Q1 2018 Q1 2019
Biomass Water Wind High efficiency cogeneration
0,24
RES and high efficiency cogeneration production [TWh]
0,39 3,70 3,44
0,24 0,39
5,68 4,76
1 2 3 4 5 6
Q1 2018 Q1 2019
Electricity (excl. RES) Electricity (RES) Heat
3,94 3,82 Gross production of electricity [TWh] and heat [PJ]
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1 172 1 389 465 387 372 280 243 236 500 1 000 1 500
Q1 2018 Q1 2019
Sales revenue EBITDA EBIT CAPEX
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3 384 3 911 188 165 179 155 500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500 3 000 3 500 4 000
Q1 2018 Q1 2019
Sales revenue EBITDA EBIT 179 155 9 10 51 92 5 9 4
188 165
40 80 120 160 200
Q1 2018 Electricity price and volume Consumption of provision related to the agreements giving rise to losses Property rights price Property rights
Other market products TDS EBITDA change Other Q1 2019
1,30 1,54 2,50 2,50 1,53 1,51 2,69 2,61 0,91 1,11
Q1 2019 Q1 2018 2 4 6 8 Group A Group B Group C2+C1+R+D Group G Other
EBITDA change [PLN m] Retail electricity supply [TWh]
9,27 8,92
Financial data [PLN m]
certificates of origin of electricity produced in cogeneration
rise to charges and lower costs of the excise tax
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EBIT depreciation and impairment charges
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EBITDA change [PLN m] Financial data [PLN m]
1,42 1,26 1,11 0,97 0,33 0,23 1,43 1,20
0,0 0,5 1,0 1,5 2,0 Q1 2018 Q1 2019
Commercial coal production volume vs sales per product [Mg m]
Commercial coal production Coal dust sales Other products sales
* Total costs excluding depreciation, impairment charges, costs not directly related to coal production and costs that do not have a permanent impact on the company’s cash flow
PLN/Mg to 211 PLN/Mg)
385 292 44
77 119
100 200 300 400 500
Q1 2018 Q1 2019
Sales revenue EBITDA EBIT CAPEX 11
33
1
10 20 30 40 50
Q1 2018 Depreciation of the headings Sold coal volume effect Variable direct unit cost effect Other Q1 2019 Comparable Q1 2018 EBITDA = PLN 44m
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Debt structure by interest rate [PLN m] TAURON Group’s nominal debt maturity as of 31.03.2019 [PLN m]
1980 337 336 2185 281 333 273 273 2409 243 866 823 473 73 73 817 500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500 3 000 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 Bonds Credits and loans
*
22 36 1922 36 22 36 243 500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500
Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019 Q1 2020 Q2 2020 Q3 2020 Q4 2020
10 191 86,5% 1 569 13,3% 15 0,1%
TAURON Group’s nominal debt structure as of 31.03.2019 [PLN m]
Bonds Loans NFOŚiGW / WFOŚiGW loans
11 775
4 370 94% 270 6%
Amounts of financing available to TAURON Group as of 31.03.2019 [PLN m]
Bond issue programs BGK loan
4 640
* Assuming all bonds issued as part of the Bond Issue Program are rolled over until the end of the funds availability period, i.e. until 2022 ** TAURON Group is also using overdraft facilities with the maximum available limits of PLN 300m and EUR 45m
Interest rate 11 775 Collateral
floating interest rate
Debt amount Floating: 6 495 Fixed: 5 280 None: 4 395 IRS: 2 100
credits and loans) as of 31.03.2019 amounted to: PLN 11 775m
81 months (assuming bonds rollover until 2022)
bond issues) represents 31% of the total debt
Net debt/EBITDA ratio as of 31.03.2019 = 2.74
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Investment project Capacity (MWe) Capacity (MWt) Work progress (percentage) Planned completion date Construction of the hard coal-fired unit in Jaworzno 910
2019 Construction of the CCGT unit at Stalowa Wola Combined Heat and Power Plant 450 240 86 2020 Construction of the 800m level at Janina Coal Mine
2021 Construction of the Grzegorz shaft at Sobieski Coal Mine
2023 CAPEX program at Brzeszcze Coal Mine
2025 Implementing heat production at Łagisza Power Plant by modernizing the 460 MW turbine, construction of the heating station, as well as the peaking and back-up (auxiliary) boilers
22 2019 Adapting the generating units to the BAT conclusions
2021
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Capital expenditures by segments [PLN m]
(excluding equity investments*)
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77 119 243 236 269 351 17 21 Q1 2018 Q1 2019
Mining Generation Distribution Supply and other
20% 727 606
*Expenditures including equity investments, excluding financial costs, reached: approx. PLN 571m in Q1 2018 and PLN 690m in Q1 2019
Key investment projects implemented in Q1 2019 Mining:
(PLN 42m)
8m)
Generation:
as overhaul components (PLN 32m)
(PLN 4m)
Distribution:
(PLN 199m)
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Marcin Lauer marcin.lauer@tauron.pl
Paweł Gaworzyński pawel.gaworzynski@tauron.pl
Mirosław Szczygielski miroslaw.szczygielski@tauron.pl
Magdalena Wilczek magdalena.wilczek@tauron.pl
Katarzyna Heinz katarzyna.heinz@tauron.pl
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This presentation serves for information purposes only and should not be treated as investment-related advice. This presentation has been prepared by TAURON Polska Energia S.A. (“Company”). Neither the Company nor any of its subsidiaries shall be held accountable for any damage resulting from the use of this presentation or a part thereof, or its contents or in any other manner in connection with this presentation. The recipients of this presentation shall bear exclusive responsibility for their own analyses and market assessment as well as evaluation of the Company’s market position and its potential results in the future based on information contained in herein. To the extent this presentation contains forward-looking statements related to the future, in particular such terms as ”designed”, ”planned”, ”anticipated”, or
result in actual results, financial situation, actions and achievements being materially different from any future results, actions or achievements expressed in such forward-looking statements. Neither the Company, nor any of its subsidiaries shall be obligated to provide the recipients of this presentation with any additional information or update this presentation.
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Institution Analyst
Dom Maklerski mBanku Kamil Kliszcz Societe Generale Bartłomiej Kubicki Dom Maklerski Santander Paweł Puchalski Dom Maklerski PKO BP Stanisław Ozga Dom Maklerski Banku Handlowego Piotr Dzięciołowski Ipopema Robert Maj Erste Group Tomasz Duda
Institution Analyst
Raiffeisen Centrobank Teresa Schinwald WOOD & Company Ondrej Slama Dom Maklerski BOŚ Jakub Viscardi Exane BNP Paribas Michael Harleaux Pekao Investment Banking Maksymilian Piotrowski Beskidzki Dom Maklerski Krystian Brymora Trigon Dom Maklerski Michał Kozak
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Electricity Platforms: TGE, TFS 2018 2019 (prices until April 24, 2019 and estimation) 2019/2018 Price (PLN/MWh) Volume (GWh) Price (PLN/MWh) Volume (GWh) Price % Volume % Forward BASE (Y+Q+M) 182.85 103 370 239.66 156 348 31.1% 51.3% Forward PEAK (Y+Q+M) 228.27 11 058 339.22 12 856 48.6% 16.3% Forward (weighted average) 187.24 114 427 246.89 169 203 31.9% 47.9% SPOT (TGE) 224.73 27 645 258.17** 27 000 14.9%
Weighted average total 194.53 142 073 248.44 196 203 27.7% 38.1% Property rights (PLN/MWh) Certificate type Market prices
(Q1 2019 average)
Substitution fee and obligation for: 2018 2019 RES (PMOZE_A) 117.64 48.53 (17.5%) 129.78 (18,5%) RES from biogas plants (PMOZE_BIO) 300.56 300.03 (0.5%) 300.03 (0,5%) Coal-fired cogeneration (PMEC-2018) 8.68 9.00 (23.2%) Gas-fired cogeneration (PMGM-2018) 109.58 115.00 (8.0%) Methane-fired cogeneration (PMMET-2018) 55.21 56.00 (2.3%) CO2 emission allowances (EUR/t) CO2 market analysts survey*
(updated in April 2019)
Price (EUR/t) 2018 average 15.96 EUR/t 2019 average 25.5 EUR/t 2020 average 28 EUR/t 2019 average price forecast by TAURON 23-29 EUR/t
* Sources: Point Carbon, BNEF, Consus, GDF SUEZ Trading, HSE, Mkonline, Societe Generale, TAURON
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Average price [PLN/MWh] Volume [GWh]
Total 237.44 133 170
including
TGE (PPX) 238.36 129 674 non-TGE (PPX) 203.20 3 495 Average electricity price that takes into account 2019 one year BASE and PEAK contracts: 244.92 PLN/MWh, total 2019 BASE and PEAK contracts volume: 143 508 GWh 237,44 200 400 600 800 1 000 1 200 1 400 150 170 190 210 230 250 270 290 310 GWh PLN/MWh
Wolumen obrotu Notowania Średnia
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Average price [PLN/MWh] Volume [GWh]
Total 261.14 45 123
including
TGE (PPX) 261.19 45 088 non-TGE (PPX) 208.19 35 Average electricity price that takes into account 2020 one year BASE and PEAK contracts: 267.01 PLN/MWh, total 2020 BASE and PEAK contracts volume: 48 677 GWh 261,14 200 400 600 800 1 000 1 200 1 400 150 170 190 210 230 250 270 290 310 330 GWh PLN/MWh
Wolumen obrotu Notowania Średnia
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Average price [PLN/MWh] Volume [GWh]
Total 260.73 3 609
including
TGE (PPX) 260.73 3 609 non-TGE (PPX) Average electricity price that takes into account 2021 one year BASE and PEAK contracts: 264.54 PLN/MWh, total 2021 BASE and PEAK contracts volume: 3 807 GWh 260,73 200 400 600 800 1 000 1 200 1 400 150 170 190 210 230 250 270 290 310 330 GWh PLN/MWh
Wolumen obrotu Notowania Średnia
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