Taking a Closer Look: Housing Myths & Truths HOMEs 18th Annual - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Taking a Closer Look: Housing Myths & Truths

HOME’s 18th Annual Ventura County Housing Conference October 22, 2019

C H A N N E L I S L A N D S G L O BA L E CO N O M I C R E S E A RC H I N STIT U TE FO R

California State University

Support

Housing Myths & Truths

1 Ventura County is an expensive place to live in 2 Ventura County does not have the right jobs to afford housing

in Ventura County

Outline

1 Ventura County Currently 2 Ventura County Compared to California and Neighbors 3 Analysis of Income and Home Ownership 4 Conclusion

Outline

1 Ventura County Currently 2 Ventura County Compared to California and Neighbors 3 Analysis of Income and Home Ownership 4 Conclusion

Age and Gender Composition, 2017, Ventura County

Female Male 25 50 75

Age

Education Level of the Population, 2005 and 2017, Ventura County

N/A or no schooling Nursery school to grade 4 Grade 5, 6, 7, or 8 Grade 9 Grade 10 Grade 11 Grade 12 1 year of college 2 years of college 4 years of college 5+ years of college 50,000 100,000 150,000 2017 2005

Labor Force Participation and Unemployment, Ventura County

75.5 76.0 76.5 77.0 77.5 78.0 78.5

Labor Force Participation (%)

4 6 8 10 2008 2012 2016

Unemployment Rate (%)

Industry Breakdown of Employed Population, 2017, Ventura County

• Mining

Active Duty Military Utilities Transportation and Warehousing Information and Communications Wholesale Trade Public Administration Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting Other Services (Except Public Administration) Construction Finance, Insurance, Real Estate, and Rental and Leasing Retail Trade Manufacturing Arts, Entertainment, Recreation, Accommodations, and Food Services Professional, Scientific, Management, Administrative, and Waste Management Services Educational, Health and Social Services 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0%

• $60,000

$90,000 $120,000 $150,000

Industry Breakdown of Employed Population, 2017, Ventura County

• Education, Health and

Social Services

Mining Active Duty Military Utilities Transportation and Warehousing Information and Communications Wholesale Trade Public Administration Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting Other Services (Except Public Administration) Construction Finance, Insurance, Real Estate, and Rental and Leasing Retail Trade Manufacturing Arts, Entertainment, Recreation, Accommodations, and Food Services Professional, Scientific, Management, Administrative, and Waste Management Services Educational, Health and Social Services 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0%

• $60,000

$90,000 $120,000 $150,000

Industry Breakdown of Employed Population, 2017, Ventura County

• Education, Health and

Social Services Information and Communications

Mining Active Duty Military Utilities Transportation and Warehousing Information and Communications Wholesale Trade Public Administration Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting Other Services (Except Public Administration) Construction Finance, Insurance, Real Estate, and Rental and Leasing Retail Trade Manufacturing Arts, Entertainment, Recreation, Accommodations, and Food Services Professional, Scientific, Management, Administrative, and Waste Management Services Educational, Health and Social Services 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0%

• $60,000

$90,000 $120,000 $150,000

Comparison of County Residents Employment to County Industry Jobs, 2017, Ventura County

• Mining

Active Duty Military Utilities Transportation and Warehousing Information and Communications Wholesale Trade Public Administration Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting Other Services (Except Public Administration) Construction Finance, Insurance, Real Estate, and Rental and Leasing Retail Trade Manufacturing Arts, Entertainment, Recreation, Accommodations, and Food Services Professional, Scientific, Management, Administrative, and Waste Management Services Educational, Health and Social Services 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0%

• Share of Employment of County Residents

Share of Jobs in the County

Nominal and Real Incomes, Ventura County

$65,000 $70,000 $75,000 $80,000 $85,000 2007 2010 2013 2016

Income/Real Income

Median household income (2017 dollars) Median household income (nominal)

Population and Housing Growth in Ventura County

100 101 102 103 104 105 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 Population index Housing index

Average Household Size Trends, Ventura County

2.75 2.85 2.95 3.05 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Average household size

All residents Owners Renters

Home Ownership in Ventura County

62 64 66 68

Homeownership rates (%)

−2 −1 1 2 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

Change (%)

Home Price and Rent Trends, Ventura County

$400,000 $500,000 $600,000 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Median Sales Price

$2,000 $2,250 $2,500 $2,750 $3,000 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Median Rental Price All Homes

Home Price and Rent Trends, Ventura County

100 120 140 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Indices

Price Index Rent Index

Housing Burden A household is considered to be cost-burdened if spending more than 30 percent of their income for housing costs

Housing Burden, 2017, Ventura County

25.0% 50.0% 75.0% 2005 2010 2015

Share of households burdened Quartile

1 2 3 4

Housing Burden, 2017, Ventura County

Renters Owners 2005 2010 2015 2005 2010 2015 0.0% 25.0% 50.0% 75.0%

Share of households burdened Quartile

1 2 3 4

Current Ventura County Conditions

• Ventura County has been experiencing historically low

unemployment levels and residents are largely working within the county

• Housing stock in Ventura County has not kept up with

population growth and we now see lower home ownership rates and increased household sizes for renters

• With stagnant real incomes and increased home and rental

prices, a large share of Ventura County residents are housing-burdened

• Burdens have increased for lower half of the income

distribution

Outline

1 Ventura County Currently 2 Ventura County Compared to California and Neighbors 3 Analysis of Income and Home Ownership 4 Conclusion

Comparison of Age Trends

35 36 37 38 2005 2010 2015

Average Age

California (excluding Ventura) Ventura County

Comparison of Age Trends

34 35 36 37 38 2005 2010 2015

Average Age

Los Angeles County San Luis Obispo + Santa Barbara Counties Ventura County

Comparison of Education Levels

• Education levels in Ventura County are comparable to State

levels and that of our neighboring counties

• All areas characterized by a majority of people holding high

school diplomas or higher education

Comparison of Unemployment Rates

2.5 5.0 7.5 10.0 12.5 2003 2007 2011 2015 2019

Unemployment Rate (%)

California excluding Ventura Los Angeles County San Luis Obispo + Santa Barbara Counties Ventura County

Comparison of Commute Times, 2017

Comparison of Household Sizes

Owners Renters 2005 2010 2015 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.1 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.1

Average household size

California (excluding Ventura) Ventura County

Comparison of Household Sizes

Owners Renters 2005 2010 2015 2.6 2.8 3.0 2.6 2.8 3.0

Average household size

Los Angeles County San Luis Obispo + Santa Barbara Counties Ventura County

Comparison of 2017 Home Ownership Rates

2005 2017 20 40 60

Homeownership rates (%)

California excluding Ventura Los Angeles County San Luis Obispo + Santa Barbara Counties Ventura County

Comparison of Median Sales Prices

$200,000 $300,000 $400,000 $500,000 $600,000 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

Median Sale Price

California Ventura County

Comparison of Median Sales Prices

$300,000 $400,000 $500,000 $600,000 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

Median Sale Price

Los Angeles County San Luis Obispo County Santa Barbara County Ventura County

Comparison of Median Sales Prices

$510,000 $540,000 $570,000 $600,000 2017 2018 2019

Median Sale Price

Los Angeles County San Luis Obispo County Santa Barbara County Ventura County

Comparison of Median Rents

$2,000 $2,500 $3,000 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

Median Rental Price

California Ventura County

Comparison of Median Rents

$1,500 $2,000 $2,500 $3,000 $3,500 $4,000 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

Median Rental Price

Los Angeles County San Luis Obispo County Santa Barbara County Ventura County

Comparison of Housing Burdens, 2017

Third Income Quartile Fourth Income Quartile Bottom Income Quartile Second Income Quartile California (excluding Ventura) Los Angeles County San Luis Obispo + Santa Barbara Counties Ventura County California (excluding Ventura) Los Angeles County San Luis Obispo + Santa Barbara Counties Ventura County 0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75

Share of Households Burdened

Ventura County Compared to California and Neighbors

• No major differences in age, education, employment or

commute times

• Ventura County has higher home ownership rates than all the

areas we compared to

• Housing burdens for Ventura County are comparable to

housing burdens in the state and of our neighbors

Outline

1 Ventura County Currently 2 Ventura County Compared to California and Neighbors 3 Analysis of Income and Home Ownership 4 Conclusion

Home Ownership and Income

• ●
• 45.0%

50.0% 55.0% 60.0% 65.0% $60,000 $70,000 $80,000

Real Household Income (2017 Dollars) Homeonwership Rates

• Los Angeles County

Ventura County San Luis Obispo + Santa Barbara Counties California excluding Ventura

Home Ownership and Income

• ●
• 45.0%

50.0% 55.0% 60.0% 65.0% 70.0% $60,000 $70,000 $80,000

Real Household Income (2017 Dollars) Homeonwership Rates

• Los Angeles County

Ventura County San Luis Obispo + Santa Barbara Counties California excluding Ventura

Required Median Household Income to Achieve Ventura’s Home Ownership Rates

• California excluding Ventura

Los Angeles County San Luis Obispo + Santa Barbara Counties $65,000 $70,000 $75,000 $80,000 $85,000 $90,000

• Current

Required

Wages per Job Comparison

$10,000 $12,000 $14,000 $16,000 $18,000 2005 2010 2015

Quarter Wages per Job ($)

California excluding Ventura Ventura County

Becoming More Like Santa Barbara, Less Like Los Angeles

$10,000 $12,000 $14,000 $16,000 $18,000 2005 2010 2015

Quarter Wages per Job ($)

Los Angeles County Santa Barbara County Ventura County

Top and Bottom Employment Sectors by Growth 2004-2018

$48K $38K $22K $75K $91K $70K

90 120 150 180 2004 2008 2012 2016

Employment index (2004 = 100)

Health care and social assistance Educational services Accommodation and food services Information Finance and insurance Manufacturing

Ventura County’s Relatively High Home Ownership Rates

• Relative to its neighbors, Ventura County has the highest

home ownership rates

• Higher household incomes than in neighboring areas may

explain differences in home ownership rates

• Employment income alone becoming increasingly insufficient

to afford housing in Ventura County

• Uncertain whether current relative good conditions are

sustainable given our employment trajectory

Outline

1 Ventura County Currently 2 Ventura County Compared to California and Neighbors 3 Analysis of Income and Home Ownership 4 Conclusion

Housing Myths & Truths

1 Ventura County is an expensive place to live in

• As in much of the state, people make sacrifices to live in

beautiful Ventura County

• Evidence suggests that relative to our neighbors and the state
• f California we are actually doing okay

2 Ventura County does not have the right jobs to afford housing

in Ventura County

• Currently the employment of our residents seems to match the

jobs available in the county

• Being able to afford living in Ventura County on employment

wages alone seems increasingly difficult

Taking a Closer Look: Housing Myths & Truths

HOME’s 18th Annual Ventura County Housing Conference October 22, 2019

C H A N N E L I S L A N D S G L O BA L E CO N O M I C R E S E A RC H I N STIT U TE FO R

California State University