[PPT] - Take Back Manufacturing 2017 Nigel Southway TBM Advocate 50 years PowerPoint Presentation

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TBM Take Back Manufacturing

WWW.SME-TBM.ORG

Take Back Manufacturing

Nigel Southway

TBM Advocate

2017

50 years of Manufacturing Experience, Engineer, Consultant, Author, Business Owner. LEAN and Global Supply Chain Consultant. Past Chair of Society Manufacturing Engineers. Advocate for Take Back Manufacturing

A 20 Minute Fly-by

SLIDE 2

TBM Take Back Manufacturing

WWW.SME-TBM.ORG

TBM

Take Back Manufacturing

www.SME-TBM.org

A Forum Dedicated to Restoring

ur Manufacturing Sectors.

Since Mid 2011

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GLOBALIZED MANUFACTURING

SLIDE 5

Moved Off-shore…..

5

Textiles

Furniture Footwear Electronics AUTO PARTS Appliances Plastic goods Equipment metalwork Fittings Foods

Un-controlled “FREE” trade….. “herd behavior”

For low cost labor rates

15% Reduction in Manufacturing Intensity in the last decade

TBM

SLIDE 6 6 2009 2010 2011

CANADA

More than 500,000 jobs lost in 6 year period (300,000 Ontario) 25% Reduction (Quantity and Quality)

TBM

10% Productivity Loss (Reduced Capacity utilization) Redeployed to part time and lower paying service jobs Source: Statistics Canada Lost 10,500 Plants (50%MFG SME’s Ontario)

SLIDE 7 7 2009 2010 2011

CANADA

More than 500,000 jobs lost in 6 year period (300,000 Ontario) 25% Reduction (Quantity and Quality)

TBM

10% Productivity Loss (Reduced Capacity utilization) Redeployed to part time and lower paying service jobs Source: Statistics Canada Lost 10,500 Plants (50%MFG SME’s Ontario) 1,000,000 Young Canadians Now un or under employed!!

Due to this…. We have a skill shortage!!! (NOT a labor shortage)

Employment 15 to 24 Year Olds

SLIDE 8 (GDP=1350B)

1% GDP

8

CANADA

SLIDE 9 (GDP=1350B)

1% GDP

9

10% GDP

Worse than USA numbers!!!

Increasing dependence on Imports Increasing dependence on Exports of raw resources

CANADA

SLIDE 10

Canadian Prosperity Measures show significant decline…

Citizen Debt is Fueling Weak Economic Growth Real Cost of Living …. …………..is Escalating..

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OUR ECONOMY NEEDS MANUFACTURING!

It is VERY obvious that we need a Balanced Economy

(Resources/Services/Manufacturing)

TBM Take Back Manufacturing

WWW.SME-TBM.ORG

Start making what we consume!!

SLIDE 12 12 Winners Emerging Economies Bankers Traders Global Corporations Global Capitalists Losers Mature Economies National governments Mature Economy Middle class Citizen level investors Youth early in careers The Planet! Ave Prosperity

Globalized Trade has outpaced Wealth Creation

800% 350% or less Flatlined at best

SLIDE 13 13

Wealth Dilution

Winners Emerging Economies Bankers Traders Global Corporations Global Capitalists Losers Mature Economies National governments Mature Economy Middle class Citizen level investors Youth early in careers The Planet! Significant failure to correctly manage trade balance and wealth entitlement Trade is an inefficient method to generate wealth! Ave Prosperity GDP is now a very poor measure of prosperity!

Globalized Trade has outpaced Wealth Creation

800% 350% or less Flatlined at best

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Wealth Dilution

Winners Emerging Economies Bankers Traders Global Corporations Global Capitalists Losers Mature Economies National governments Mature Economy Middle class Citizen level investors Youth early in careers The Planet! Significant failure to correctly manage trade balance and wealth entitlement Trade is an inefficient method to generate wealth! Ave Prosperity GDP is now a very poor measure of prosperity!

Globalized Trade has outpaced Wealth Creation

800% 350% or less

More Global trade deals will just NOT help!

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GLOBALIZED MANUFACTURING

TBM Positional Paper on the Waste in a Global Supply Chain

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GLOBALIZED MANUFACTURING

TBM Positional Paper on the Waste in a Global Supply Chain

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GLOBALIZED MANUFACTURING

TBM Positional Paper on the Waste in a Global Supply Chain

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GLOBALIZED MANUFACTURING

TBM Positional Paper on the Waste in a Global Supply Chain

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Waste of VERY Expensive Bunker Fuel Much Non-Value-Adding Inventory

PURE WASTE

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Waste of VERY Expensive Bunker Fuel

This low grade bunker fuel is used by the worlds 90,000 cargo ships A single large container ship emits pollutants equivalent to 50 million cars. Total container ship pollution is 6 times that of the TOTAL cars in world 2,000 times the amount of sulfur compared to diesel automobiles. Container ships account for 90% of global trade by volume. Our Economies will be jeopardized by this global warming enabler

VERY LARGE CARBON FOOTPRINT

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INSANITY

23

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GLOBALIZED MANUFACTURING

TBM Positional Paper on the Waste in a Global Supply Chain

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GLOBAL SUPPLY CHAIN Localized TRADE Bloc

LEAN Review of Trading Models

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GLOBAL SUPPLY CHAIN

CHINA/ASIA Manufacturing recycle loop Canada USA 9000 km Each way MIN 6 weeks Transit Inventory MIN $100/M cube to transport MIN Many Transactions / Handling…… Much Waste of Natural Resource’s 26 HIGH WASTE NOT LEAN NOT GREEN Dig Resources Ship resources Dock resources Use Resources Ship products Dock products Ship Store ship Sell Process

LEAN Review of Trading Models

SCRAP $

NOW

Cost Drivers

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GLOBAL SUPPLY CHAIN

CHINA/ASIA Manufacturing recycle loop Canada USA 9000 km Each way MIN 6 weeks Transit Inventory MIN $100/M cube to transport MIN Many Transactions / Handling…… Much Waste of Natural Resource’s 27 HIGH WASTE NOT LEAN NOT GREEN Dig Resources Ship resources Dock resources Use Resources Ship products Dock products Ship Store ship Sell Process

LEAN Review of Trading Models

SCRAP $

NOW

When Interest rates are “normalized” we will have a “High cost of Inventory trap”

Cost Drivers

SLIDE 28 The end of cheap China

What do soaring Chinese wages mean for global manufacturing?

Mar 10th 2012 | HONG KONG AND SHENZHEN | from the print edition

CHINA … Low Cost Country?

WEALTH TRANSFER???

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GLOBAL SUPPLY CHAIN

CHINA/ASIA Manufacturing recycle loop Canada USA 9000 km Each way MIN 6 weeks Transit Inventory MIN $100/M cube to transport MIN Many Transactions / Handling…… Much Waste of Natural Resource’s 29 HIGH WASTE NOT LEAN NOT GREEN Dig Resources Ship resources Dock resources Use Resources Ship products Dock products Ship Store ship Sell Process

LEAN Review of Trading Models

SCRAP $

NOW

When Interest rates are “normalized” we will have a “High cost of Inventory trap”

Cost Drivers

SLIDE 30

GLOBAL SUPPLY CHAIN

CHINA/ASIA Manufacturing recycle loop Canada USA 9000 km Each way MIN 6 weeks Transit Inventory MIN $100/M cube to transport MIN Many Transactions / Handling…… Much Waste of Natural Resource’s 30 HIGH WASTE NOT LEAN NOT GREEN Dig Resources Ship resources Dock resources Use Resources Ship products Dock products Ship Store ship Sell Process

LEAN Review of Trading Models

SCRAP $

NOW

When Interest rates are “normalized” we will have a “High cost of Inventory trap”

Cost Drivers

SLIDE 31 Canada USA 9000 km Each way MIN 6 weeks Transit Inventory MIN $100/M cube to transport MIN Many Transactions / Handling…… Much Waste of Natural Resource’s 31 Dig Resources Ship resources Dock resources Use Resources Ship products Dock products Ship Store ship Sell Process

LEAN Review of Trading Models

CHINA/ASIA

Localized TRADE Bloc FUTURE

Cost Drivers

TBM

SLIDE 32 Mexico Canada USA 9000 km Each way MIN 6 weeks Transit Inventory MIN $100/M cube to transport MIN Many Transactions / Handling…… Much Waste of Natural Resource’s 32 Dig Resources Ship resources Dock resources Use Resources Ship products Dock products Ship Store ship Sell Process

LEAN Review of Trading Models

CHINA/ASIA

Localized TRADE Bloc FUTURE

Cost Drivers

TBM

NAFTA

SLIDE 33 Mexico Canada USA 9000 km Each way MIN 6 weeks Transit Inventory MIN $100/M cube to transport MIN Many Transactions / Handling…… Much Waste of Natural Resource’s 33 Dig Resources Ship resources Dock resources Use Resources Ship products Dock products Ship Store Ship Sell Process

Localized TRADE Bloc

1000 km Each way MAX 1 week Transit Inventory Max $10/M cube to transport Max Few Transactions Minimal Inventory/Interest rate exposure

Short Supply Chains FAST RESPONSE to customers

LEAN Review of Trading Models

FUTURE

Cost Drivers 11% 16% 10% 10%

SLIDE 34 Canada USA 34 Process

Localized TRADE Bloc

1000 km Each way MAX 1 week Transit Inventory Max $10/M cube to transport Max Few Transactions Minimal Inventory/Interest rate exposure

Short Supply Chains FAST RESPONSE to customers

LEAN Review of Trading Models

Dig Resources Use Resources Ship Sell Local Manufacturing Strong Incubator for INNOVATION

FUTURE

SLIDE 35 Canada USA 35 Process

Localized TRADE Bloc

1000 km Each way MAX 1 week Transit Inventory Max $10/M cube to transport Max Few Transactions Minimal Inventory/Interest rate exposure

Short Supply Chains FAST RESPONSE to customers

LEAN Review of Trading Models

Dig Resources Use Resources Ship Sell Local Manufacturing Strong Incubator for INNOVATION

FUTURE

SLIDE 36 CHINA/ASIA Canada USA 36

LEAN Review of Trading Models

LEAN & GREEN

Intrinsically less wasteful Short Supply Chains FAST RESPONSE to customers

Local Manufacturing Strong Incubator for INNOVATION Balanced Trade 1000 km Each way MAX 1 week Transit Inventory Max $10/M cube to transport Max Few Transactions Minimal Inventory/Interest rate exposure

BALANCED ECONOMY

FUTURE Localized TRADE Bloc

Other Trade Blocs Other Trade Blocs Other Trade Blocs

SLIDE 37 CHINA/ASIA Canada USA 37

LEAN Review of Trading Models

LEAN & GREEN

Intrinsically less wasteful Short Supply Chains FAST RESPONSE to customers

Local Manufacturing Strong Incubator for INNOVATION Balanced Trade 1000 km Each way MAX 1 week Transit Inventory Max $10/M cube to transport Max Few Transactions Minimal Inventory/Interest rate exposure

BALANCED ECONOMY

Localized TRADE Bloc

Other Trade Blocs Other Trade Blocs Other Trade Blocs

FUTURE

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GLOBALIZED MANUFACTURING

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GLOBALIZED MANUFACTURING

We Question its future Sustainability

Long Supply Chains Are Far Less Sustainable

SLIDE 40

GLOBALIZED MANUFACTURING

START THINKING LEAN & GREEN

SLIDE 41 LOCAL BEST OFF-SHORE WORST OFF-SHORE

?

Boston Consulting Group (BCG)……

Predict BALANCED LANDED COST parity by 2015 in most sectors

The REAL Costs to Manufacture OFF-SHORE will be projected to rise. OFFSHORE LOCAL

BALANCED SOURCING

Validated Cost Trade-off Models … LOCAL versus Off-shore

SLIDE 42 LOCAL BEST OFF-SHORE WORST OFF-SHORE

?

Boston Consulting Group (BCG)……

Predict BALANCED LANDED COST parity by 2015 in most sectors

The REAL Costs to Manufacture OFF-SHORE will be projected to rise. Due to: Exchange, tariffs, Labor wage inflation, Product Quality Cost escalation Transportation costs, Customer location Inventory costs, Ease of doing business, Plus…Many Other hidden drivers…. OFFSHORE LOCAL

BALANCED SOURCING

Validated Cost Trade-off Models … LOCAL versus Off-shore

SLIDE 43 LOCAL BEST OFF-SHORE WORST OFF-SHORE

?

Boston Consulting Group (BCG)……

Predict BALANCED LANDED COST parity by 2015 in most sectors

The REAL Costs to Manufacture OFF-SHORE will be projected to rise. Due to: Exchange, tariffs, Labor wage inflation, Product Quality Cost escalation Transportation costs, Customer location Inventory costs, Ease of doing business, Plus…Many Other hidden drivers…. OFFSHORE LOCAL

BALANCED SOURCING

Validated Cost Trade-off Models … LOCAL versus Off-shore

SLIDE 44 44

TBM Take Back Manufacturing

WWW.SME-TBM.ORG The 5 Advanced Technologies Driving This Age of Disruption

3D Printing Advanced Manufacturing Technology process machinery and Sensor Technology Big Data IIOT Industrial Internet Of Things Connectivity Globalization of Ideas…. NOT materials!

SLIDE 45

Are we there yet? SMART FACTORY

Factory Of The Future NRC This Disruption Can level the Manufacturing playing field…… ….. between Low Cost Labor and Developed Countries

Industry 4.0…The Next Industrial Revolution/Opportunity

SLIDE 46 46

Our Biggest Threat….. Unresponsive National Governments

Balanced Trade

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So what’s next?

47

A new critical mass of political awareness …… Good discussion To force action taking ……

THE GAME CHANGERS!

Brit Balanced Trade Matters

SLIDE 48 48 America’s establishment remains clueless why stimulus after stimulus is failing A big part of the problem, which our globalist rulers won’t admit, is that so much stimulus is leaking abroad due to

ur trade deficit,

Make no mistake: our trade is in crisis. Our trade deficit now runs about $50 billion a month. The U.S. is competing under self-imposed free-trade rules against foreign nations with aggressively mercantilist trade strategies. Trade is rigged. Foreign governments subsidize their exports. Only about 15 percent of world trade is genuinely free. More free-trade agreements, the establishment solution to the problem, will not solve it. Trade agreements sign away democratic control over our health, safety, labor law, immigration law, fiscal policy, financial stability, national security, environmental policy, and other things. Imports cause a trade-off between wages and prices, and there is no good reason to suppose that free trade necessarily hits the sweet spot of this trade-off. Above all, the U.S. has virtually nothing to gain from pushing even further in the direction of more free trade— America is running a huge deficit, not a surplus, with China. ($245 billion in 2011, about 41 percent of our total). “Free trade costs America low-quality jobs but brings high-quality jobs in their place.”…..But the hard data actually show America losing both kinds of jobs. For example, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the U.S. lost over 270,000 engineer and architect jobs between 2000 and 2010. Free trade is rotting away America’s industrial base as foreign nations target and conquer industry after industry.

The Case against Free Trade By Ian Fletcher

http://www.thesocialcontract.com/artman2/publish/tsc_22_4/tsc_22_4_fletcher.shtml

SLIDE 49 49 America’s establishment remains clueless why stimulus after stimulus is failing A big part of the problem, which our globalist rulers won’t admit, is that so much stimulus is leaking abroad due to

ur trade deficit,

Make no mistake: our trade is in crisis. Our trade deficit now runs about $50 billion a month. The U.S. is competing under self-imposed free-trade rules against foreign nations with aggressively mercantilist trade strategies. Trade is rigged. Foreign governments subsidize their exports. Only about 15 percent of world trade is genuinely free. More free-trade agreements, the establishment solution to the problem, will not solve it. Trade agreements sign away democratic control over our health, safety, labor law, immigration law, fiscal policy, financial stability, national security, environmental policy, and other things. Imports cause a trade-off between wages and prices, and there is no good reason to suppose that free trade necessarily hits the sweet spot of this trade-off. Above all, the U.S. has virtually nothing to gain from pushing even further in the direction of more free trade— America is running a huge deficit, not a surplus, with China. ($245 billion in 2011, about 41 percent of our total). “Free trade costs America low-quality jobs but brings high-quality jobs in their place.”…..But the hard data actually show America losing both kinds of jobs. For example, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the U.S. lost over 270,000 engineer and architect jobs between 2000 and 2010. Free trade is rotting away America’s industrial base as foreign nations target and conquer industry after industry.

The Case against Free Trade By Ian Fletcher

http://www.thesocialcontract.com/artman2/publish/tsc_22_4/tsc_22_4_fletcher.shtml

SLIDE 50

CANADA must…..

Take Back Manufacturing

TBM Take Back Manufacturing

WWW.SME-TBM.ORG

To be competitive It will require…. Political will….. INDUSTRIAL POLICY (stable Dollar) Strong Investment in Capital and Industrial Learning

Re-establish a Productivity Improvement culture

The Application of INDUSTRY 4.0 …Disruptive Technologies

Local Community Engagement

SLIDE 51

Manufacturing has an IMAGE problem!!

Most manufacturing-based businesses are beyond dispirited…. Our Politicians/Government/Educators/Population have little understanding

f business and manufacturing…We must EDUCATE them!!

Manufacturing is deemed:

Dark, Dirty, Dangerous, Deafening and Difficult….

51

….. And Smelly!

M And…. Highly unstable as a career!

?

SLIDE 52 52

TBM

EXCITE the NEXT GENERATION

Change ….

The Image of Manufacturing

Let’s Make Manufacturing

SLIDE 53

KEY Things to Remember

Manufacturing Globalization is reversible, and Globalization has been and gone before..
Global trade has been a very inefficient generator of real wealth, and will soon start to

create negative wealth unless adjusted.

North America has the ability to become self sustaining… we have very strong essential
consumerism. We have people, skills knowledge, educational ability, technology, capital,

most natural resources, with a rule of law and “reasonable” political will.

Manufacturing provides the strongest economic multiplier effect…..

$1 of Manufacturing generates $3 in Services & $1 in Resource demand.

We need only a 10% increase in price/cost on only non essential items to reshore and re-

employee and build careers for all our citizens both young and old.

Sustainability not Economic growth will be the real driver of economic prosperity
Our most treasured right must be our national citizenship, and the protection of personal

worth, prosperity, and the reversal of social disorder. 53

TBM

SLIDE 54

KEY Things to Remember

Manufacturing Globalization is reversible, and Globalization has been and gone before..
Global trade has been a very inefficient generator of real wealth, and will soon start to

create negative wealth unless adjusted.

North America has the ability to become self sustaining… we have very strong essential
consumerism. We have people, skills knowledge, educational ability, technology, capital,

most natural resources, with a rule of law and “reasonable” political will.

Manufacturing provides the strongest economic multiplier effect…..

$1 of Manufacturing generates $3 in Services & $1 in Resource demand.

We need only a 10% increase in price/cost on only non essential items to reshore and re-

employee and build careers for all our citizens both young and old.

Sustainability not Economic growth will be the real driver of economic prosperity
Our most treasured right must be our national citizenship, and the protection of personal

worth, prosperity, and the reversal of social disorder. 54

TBM

SLIDE 55

KEY Things to Remember

Manufacturing Globalization is reversible, and Globalization has been and gone before..
Global trade has been a very inefficient generator of real wealth, and will soon start to

create negative wealth unless adjusted.

North America has the ability to become self sustaining… we have very strong essential
consumerism. We have people, skills knowledge, educational ability, technology, capital,

most natural resources, with a rule of law and “reasonable” political will.

Manufacturing provides the strongest economic multiplier effect…..

$1 of Manufacturing generates $3 in Services & $1 in Resource demand.

We need only a 10% increase in price/cost on only non essential items to reshore and re-

employee and build careers for all our citizens both young and old.

Sustainability not Economic growth will be the real driver of economic prosperity
Our most treasured right must be our national citizenship, and the protection of personal

worth, prosperity, and the reversal of social disorder. 55

TBM

SLIDE 56

KEY Things to Remember

Manufacturing Globalization is reversible, and Globalization has been and gone before..
Global trade has been a very inefficient generator of real wealth, and will soon start to

create negative wealth unless adjusted.

North America has the ability to become self sustaining… we have very strong essential
consumerism. We have people, skills knowledge, educational ability, technology, capital,

most natural resources, with a rule of law and “reasonable” political will.

Manufacturing provides the strongest economic multiplier effect…..

$1 of Manufacturing generates $3 in Services & $1 in Resource demand.

We need only a 10% increase in price/cost on only non essential items to reshore and re-

employee and build careers for all our citizens both young and old.

Sustainability not Economic growth will be the real driver of economic prosperity
Our most treasured right must be our national citizenship, and the protection of personal

worth, prosperity, and the reversal of social disorder. 56

TBM

SLIDE 57

KEY Things to Remember

Manufacturing Globalization is reversible, and Globalization has been and gone before..
Global trade has been a very inefficient generator of real wealth, and will soon start to

create negative wealth unless adjusted.

North America has the ability to become self sustaining… we have very strong essential
consumerism. We have people, skills knowledge, educational ability, technology, capital,

most natural resources, with a rule of law and “reasonable” political will.

Manufacturing provides the strongest economic multiplier effect…..

$1 of Manufacturing generates $3 in Services & $1 in Resource demand.

We need only a 10% increase in price/cost on only non essential items to reshore and re-

employee and build careers for all our citizens both young and old.

Sustainability not Economic growth will be the real driver of economic prosperity
Our most treasured right must be our national citizenship, and the protection of personal

worth, prosperity, and the reversal of social disorder. 57

TBM

SLIDE 58

KEY Things to Remember

Manufacturing Globalization is reversible, and Globalization has been and gone before..
Global trade has been a very inefficient generator of real wealth, and will soon start to

create negative wealth unless adjusted.

North America has the ability to become self sustaining… we have very strong essential
consumerism. We have people, skills knowledge, educational ability, technology, capital,

most natural resources, with a rule of law and “reasonable” political will.

Manufacturing provides the strongest economic multiplier effect…..

$1 of Manufacturing generates $3 in Services & $1 in Resource demand.

We need only a 10% increase in price/cost on only non essential items to reshore and re-

employee and build careers for all our citizens both young and old.

Sustainability not Economic growth will be the real driver of economic prosperity
Our most treasured right must be our national citizenship, and the protection of personal

worth, prosperity, and the reversal of social disorder. 58

TBM

SLIDE 59

KEY Things to Remember

Manufacturing Globalization is reversible, and Globalization has been and gone before..
Global trade has been a very inefficient generator of real wealth, and will soon start to

create negative wealth unless adjusted.

North America has the ability to become self sustaining… we have very strong essential
consumerism. We have people, skills knowledge, educational ability, technology, capital,

most natural resources, with a rule of law and “reasonable” political will.

Manufacturing provides the strongest economic multiplier effect…..

$1 of Manufacturing generates $3 in Services & $1 in Resource demand.

We need only a 10% increase in price/cost on only non essential items to reshore and re-

employee and build careers for all our citizens both young and old.

Sustainability not Economic growth will be the real driver of economic prosperity
Our most treasured right must be our national citizenship, and the protection of personal

worth, prosperity, and the reversal of social disorder. 59

TBM

SLIDE 60

KEY Things to Remember

Manufacturing Globalization is reversible, and Globalization has been and gone before..
Global trade has been a very inefficient generator of real wealth, and will soon start to

create negative wealth unless adjusted.

North America has the ability to become self sustaining… we have very strong essential
consumerism. We have people, skills knowledge, educational ability, technology, capital,

most natural resources, with a rule of law and “reasonable” political will.

Manufacturing provides the strongest economic multiplier effect…..

$1 of Manufacturing generates $3 in Services & $1 in Resource demand.

We need only a 10% increase in price/cost on only non essential items to reshore and re-

employee and build careers for all our citizens both young and old.

Sustainability not Economic growth will be the real driver of economic prosperity
Our most treasured right must be our national citizenship, and the protection of personal

worth, prosperity, and the reversal of social disorder. 60

TBM

SLIDE 61 61

SLIDE 62 62

FOR OUR KIDS!!!

Let’s Re-engineer Our Economy to Work Again!

TBM

TBM Take Back Manufacturing

WWW.SME-TBM.ORG

SLIDE 63

Questions?

63 KEEP ASKING…. WHY?…

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END

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