Table of contents Marco Verdecchia - University of LAquila, Italy - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Table of contents Marco Verdecchia - University of LAquila, Italy - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Dec 01, 2023 123 likes •630 views

Water Resources in Developing Countries: Hydroclimate modelling and Analysis tool Cetemps HYdrological Model Table of contents Marco Verdecchia - University of LAquila, Italy CHyM hydrological modelling for flood alert mapping applicaBon

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Table of contents

Water Resources in Developing Countries: Hydroclimate modelling and Analysis tool

Marco Verdecchia - University of L’Aquila, Italy CHyM hydrological modelling for flood alert mapping applicaBon

Cetemps HYdrological Model

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Table of contents

Water Resources in Developing Countries: Hydroclimate modelling and Analysis tool

Marco Verdecchia – University of L’Aquila, Italy - CHyM model for flood alert mapping

Overview

1. Can we carry out suitable hydrological forecast in operaBonal condiBon?
2. How we can do?
3. Why these forecast are not yet widely used by civil authoriBes?

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Table of contents

Water Resources in Developing Countries: Hydroclimate modelling and Analysis tool

Marco Verdecchia – University of L’Aquila, Italy - CHyM model for flood alert mapping

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Table of contents

Water Resources in Developing Countries: Hydroclimate modelling and Analysis tool

Marco Verdecchia – University of L’Aquila, Italy - CHyM model for flood alert mapping

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Table of contents

Water Resources in Developing Countries: Hydroclimate modelling and Analysis tool

Marco Verdecchia – University of L’Aquila, Italy - CHyM model for flood alert mapping

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Water Resources in Developing Countries: Hydroclimate modelling and Analysis tool

Marco Verdecchia – University of L’Aquila, Italy - CHyM model for flood alert mapping

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Table of contents

Water Resources in Developing Countries: Hydroclimate modelling and Analysis tool

Marco Verdecchia – University of L’Aquila, Italy - CHyM model for flood alert mapping

q Distributed grid-based hydrological model; q Different sets of precipitaJon data can be assimilated and merged in a hierarchical way at each hourly Jme step; q It includes an explicit parameterizaJon of different physical processes contribuJng to hydrological cycle; q It runs in any geographical domain with any resoluJon up to DEM resoluJon, drainage network is extracted by a naJve algorithm implemented in CHyM code; q It runs in any Linux plaPorms; q It doesn't use licensed soRware (GIS etc.), but graphic applicaJon are based on the GKS (low level library) developed by NCAR q It reads, in the current implementaJon, precipitaJon and temperature fields from:

RegCM, MM5, WRF, Era-40, trimm, Persiann, rain gauge (any sparse data), radar, satellite esJmaJon

CHyM - Architectural characterisBcs

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Table of contents

Water Resources in Developing Countries: Hydroclimate modelling and Analysis tool

Marco Verdecchia – University of L’Aquila, Italy - CHyM model for flood alert mapping

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Table of contents

Water Resources in Developing Countries: Hydroclimate modelling and Analysis tool

Marco Verdecchia – University of L’Aquila, Italy - CHyM model for flood alert mapping

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Water Resources in Developing Countries: Hydroclimate modelling and Analysis tool

Marco Verdecchia – University of L’Aquila, Italy - CHyM model for flood alert mapping

A cellular automata is a discrete dynamical system (Space, Jme and states of the system

are discrete quanJJes)

Each point in a regular spaJal la`ce, called a cell, can have anyone of a finite number of

states

The state of the cells in the la`ce are updated according to a local rule
All cells on the la`ce are updated synchronously

In order to solve numerical singularities and merge different data set of observational/predicted data, CHyM model uses an original Cellular Automata based algorithms

A Cellular automata definition

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Water Resources in Developing Countries: Hydroclimate modelling and Analysis tool

Marco Verdecchia – University of L’Aquila, Italy - CHyM model for flood alert mapping

CHyM grid is considered an aggregate of cellular automata
The status of a cell corresponds to the value of a CHyM matrix (DEM)
The state of the cells in the la`ce is updated according to following rule
All cells on the la`ce are updated synchronously
Update ends when flow scheme is OK

How Cellular Automata theory is applied to solve DEM singularities ⎟ ⎟ ⎠ ⎞ ⎜ ⎜ ⎝ ⎛ − + →

∑

8

) (

j i j j i i

h h h h β α

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Water Resources in Developing Countries: Hydroclimate modelling and Analysis tool

Marco Verdecchia – University of L’Aquila, Italy - CHyM model for flood alert mapping

ü CHyM grid is considered an aggregate of cellular automata ü The status of a cell corresponds to the value of precipitation ü The state of the cells in the lattice is updated according to following rule ü All cells on the lattice are updated synchronously

⎟ ⎟ ⎠ ⎞ ⎜ ⎜ ⎝ ⎛ − + →

∑

8

) (

j i j j i i

h h h h β α

But cells corresponding to rain gauges or defined in a previous Module are not updated

ü Update ends when a stable state is reached

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Water Resources in Developing Countries: Hydroclimate modelling and Analysis tool

Marco Verdecchia – University of L’Aquila, Italy - CHyM model for flood alert mapping

E. Coppola, B. Tomasse`, L. Mario`, M. Verdecchia and G. VisconJ, Cellular automata algorithms for drainage

network extracJon and rainfall data assimilaJon, Hydrological Science Journal, 52(3), 2007

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Water Resources in Developing Countries: Hydroclimate modelling and Analysis tool

Marco Verdecchia – University of L’Aquila, Italy - CHyM model for flood alert mapping

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15

Hamilton's principle or principle of staJonary acJon

William Rowan Hamilton (1805 –1865)

According to the Hamilton principle, CHyM model assumes that surface flow occur with a strong preferenJal direcJon. «…Ogni azione fama dalla natura non si pò fare con più brieve

modo co' medesimi mezzi... Date le cause la natura partorisce li effe` per i più brievi modi che far si possa...»

Leonardo da Vinci (1452-1519)

(Leonardo) Water Resources in Developing Countries: Hydroclimate modelling and Analysis tool

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Water Resources in Developing Countries: Hydroclimate modelling and Analysis tool

Marco Verdecchia – University of L’Aquila, Italy - CHyM model for flood alert mapping

ParametrizaBon of physical processes contribuBng to hydrological cycle Surface runoff

Based on the kinemaJc wave approximaJon (Lighthill and Whitam, 1955) of the shallow water wave, the equaJons used by CHYM model to simulate the surface rouJng overland and for channel flow, are the conJnuity and momentum conservaJon equaJons: S is longitudinal bed slope of the flow element , n the Manning’s roughness coefficient while R is the hydraulic radius that can be wrimen as a linear funcJon of the drained area

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Water Resources in Developing Countries: Hydroclimate modelling and Analysis tool

Marco Verdecchia – University of L’Aquila, Italy - CHyM model for flood alert mapping

A complete descripBon can be find starBng from: hRp://cetemps.aquila.infn.it/mvlib/11.html ParametrizaBon of physical processes contribuBng to hydrological cycle MelBng

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Water Resources in Developing Countries: Hydroclimate modelling and Analysis tool

Marco Verdecchia – University of L’Aquila, Italy - CHyM model for flood alert mapping

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Water Resources in Developing Countries: Hydroclimate modelling and Analysis tool

Marco Verdecchia – University of L’Aquila, Italy - CHyM model for flood alert mapping

Flood alert mapping ValidaBon of flood alarm index

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Water Resources in Developing Countries: Hydroclimate modelling and Analysis tool

Marco Verdecchia – University of L’Aquila, Italy - CHyM model for flood alert mapping

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PredicBng possible severe hydrological events Flood alert mapping

Water Resources in Developing Countries: Hydroclimate modelling and Analysis tool

Marco Verdecchia – University of L’Aquila, Italy - CHyM model for flood alert mapping

A determinisJc predicJon of discharge is oRen difficult because reliable Jme series of

flow discharge are not always available, especially for small basins.

Floods are oRen observed for small basin where model calibraJon is difficult
Flood occurrence depends also on the morphologic characterisJcs of the river
It is not straighPorward to establish a discharge value above which flood is expected to
ccur.

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Water Resources in Developing Countries: Hydroclimate modelling and Analysis tool

Marco Verdecchia – University of L’Aquila, Italy - CHyM model for flood alert mapping

Flood alert mapping DefiniBon of alarm index – CAI (CHyM Alarm index)

∫ ∫ ∫

Δ −

=

j i j

Up t T t Up

ds dtds s t P j t CAI ) , ( ) , (

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Water Resources in Developing Countries: Hydroclimate modelling and Analysis tool

Marco Verdecchia – University of L’Aquila, Italy - CHyM model for flood alert mapping

Flood alert mapping Average runoff Bme is calculated in four steps

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Water Resources in Developing Countries: Hydroclimate modelling and Analysis tool

Marco Verdecchia – University of L’Aquila, Italy - CHyM model for flood alert mapping

Flood alert mapping DefiniBon of alarm index – BDD (Best Discharge-based Drainage alarm index)

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Water Resources in Developing Countries: Hydroclimate modelling and Analysis tool

Marco Verdecchia – University of L’Aquila, Italy - CHyM model for flood alert mapping

Flood alert mapping ApplicaBon to different case studies – Genova – October 2014

Flood alert mapping operaJonally available at URL hRp://cetemps.aquila.infn.it/chymop

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Water Resources in Developing Countries: Planning and Management in Face of Hydroclimatological Extremes and Variability

Marco Verdecchia – University of L’Aquila, Italy - CHyM model for flood alert mapping

Flood alert mapping ApplicaBon to different case studies – Genova – October 2014

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Water Resources in Developing Countries: Hydroclimate modelling and Analysis tool

Marco Verdecchia – University of L’Aquila, Italy - CHyM model for flood alert mapping

Flood alert mapping ApplicaBon to different case studies – Abruzzo region – Sep 2012

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Water Resources in Developing Countries: Hydroclimate modelling and Analysis tool

Marco Verdecchia – University of L’Aquila, Italy - CHyM model for flood alert mapping

Flood alert mapping ApplicaBon to different case studies – Abruzzo region – Sep. 2012

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Water Resources in Developing Countries: Planning and Management in Face of Hydroclimatological Extremes and Variability

Marco Verdecchia – University of L’Aquila, Italy - CHyM model for flood alert mapping

Flood alert mapping ApplicaBon to different case studies – Abruzzo region – Sep. 2012

Piomba River

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Water Resources in Developing Countries: Hydroclimate modelling and Analysis tool

Marco Verdecchia – University of L’Aquila, Italy - CHyM model for flood alert mapping

Flood alert mapping ApplicaBon to different case studies – Abruzzo region – Sep. 2012

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Water Resources in Developing Countries: Hydroclimate modelling and Analysis tool

Marco Verdecchia – University of L’Aquila, Italy - CHyM model for flood alert mapping

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Water Resources in Developing Countries: Hydroclimate modelling and Analysis tool

Marco Verdecchia – University of L’Aquila, Italy - CHyM model for flood alert mapping

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Water Resources in Developing Countries: Hydroclimate modelling and Analysis tool

Marco Verdecchia – University of L’Aquila, Italy - CHyM model for flood alert mapping

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Water Resources in Developing Countries: Hydroclimate modelling and Analysis tool

Marco Verdecchia – University of L’Aquila, Italy - CHyM model for flood alert mapping

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Water Resources in Developing Countries: Hydroclimate modelling and Analysis tool

Marco Verdecchia – University of L’Aquila, Italy - CHyM model for flood alert mapping

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Water Resources in Developing Countries: Hydroclimate modelling and Analysis tool

Marco Verdecchia – University of L’Aquila, Italy - CHyM model for flood alert mapping

YouTube Movie

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Water Resources in Developing Countries: Hydroclimate modelling and Analysis tool

Marco Verdecchia – University of L’Aquila, Italy - CHyM model for flood alert mapping

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Water Resources in Developing Countries: Hydroclimate modelling and Analysis tool

Marco Verdecchia – University of L’Aquila, Italy - CHyM model for flood alert mapping

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Water Resources in Developing Countries: Hydroclimate modelling and Analysis tool

Marco Verdecchia – University of L’Aquila, Italy - CHyM model for flood alert mapping

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Water Resources in Developing Countries: Hydroclimate modelling and Analysis tool

Marco Verdecchia – University of L’Aquila, Italy - CHyM model for flood alert mapping

Flood alert mapping ValidaBon of flood alarm index

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Water Resources in Developing Countries: Hydroclimate modelling and Analysis tool

Marco Verdecchia – University of L’Aquila, Italy - CHyM model for flood alert mapping

Flood alert mapping ApplicaBon to different climatology

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Water Resources in Developing Countries: Hydroclimate modelling and Analysis tool

Marco Verdecchia – University of L’Aquila, Italy - CHyM model for flood alert mapping

Pozzanghere (Puddle) Pozzangheramento (invented by MV)

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Water Resources in Developing Countries: Hydroclimate modelling and Analysis tool

Marco Verdecchia – University of L’Aquila, Italy - CHyM model for flood alert mapping

Lab session –June 19 2017 Few suggesBons about model calibraBon and CHyM (any) model applicaBon

* A model cannot be considered as “black box” The model “does not work properly” is the “normal condi;on” * Model is just an approximaBon of the actual world * A “Physical” soluBon is always beRer than a “numerical” soluBon

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Water Resources in Developing Countries: Hydroclimate modelling and Analysis tool

Marco Verdecchia – University of L’Aquila, Italy - CHyM model for flood alert mapping

What happens if you run a numerical model? It does not work properly It works properly Code problem ParameterizaJon problem

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Water Resources in Developing Countries: Hydroclimate modelling and Analysis tool

Marco Verdecchia – University of L’Aquila, Italy - CHyM model for flood alert mapping

Return flow

The constant is set to 5 x 10-7 mm hour-1 km-2 and may depends on the catchment This constant is specified by cpar(1) The number day is specified by cpar(7) Return flow is parametrized as a funcJon of the total amount of water infiltrated in upstream basin in the last N days

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Water Resources in Developing Countries: Hydroclimate modelling and Analysis tool

Marco Verdecchia – University of L’Aquila, Italy - CHyM model for flood alert mapping

EvapotranspiraBon

Kc is set in the array evc(LU,MON) of CHyM code

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Water Resources in Developing Countries: Hydroclimate modelling and Analysis tool

Marco Verdecchia – University of L’Aquila, Italy - CHyM model for flood alert mapping

EvapotranspiraBon

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Water Resources in Developing Countries: Hydroclimate modelling and Analysis tool

Marco Verdecchia – University of L’Aquila, Italy - CHyM model for flood alert mapping

MelBng

Tf is set 0.005 mm hour-1 oC-1 and is specified by cpar(4) SRF is set to 0.0094 mm hour-1 m2/(wam 0C) and is specified by cpar(5)

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Water Resources in Developing Countries: Hydroclimate modelling and Analysis tool

Marco Verdecchia – University of L’Aquila, Italy - CHyM model for flood alert mapping

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Water Resources in Developing Countries: Hydroclimate modelling and Analysis tool

Marco Verdecchia – University of L’Aquila, Italy - CHyM model for flood alert mapping