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❲❤❛t s❤✐❢ts t❤❡ ❇❡✈❡r✐❞❣❡ ❈✉r✈❡❄ ❘❡❝r✉✐t♠❡♥t ❊✛♦rt ❛♥❞ ❋✐♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ❙❤♦❝❦s ❆❧❡ss❛♥❞r♦ ●❛✈❛③③❛✱ ❙✐♠♦♥ ▼♦♥❣❡②✱ ●✐❛♥❧✉❝❛ ❱✐♦❧❛♥t❡ ◆❡✇ ❨♦r❦ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐t② ▼❛② ✶✸✱ ✷✵✶✸

■♥tr♦❞✉❝t✐♦♥ ▼♦❞❡❧ ❈❛❧✐❜r❛t✐♦♥ ❘❡s✉❧ts ❙❤✐❢t ✐♥ t❤❡ ❇❡✈❡r✐❞❣❡ ❈✉r✈❡ U.S. Beveridge Curve 0.032 0.03 0.028 Vacancy rate 0.026 0.024 0.022 0.02 2003:1−2007:12 0.018 2008:1−2013:10 0.016 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.09 0.1 Unemployment rate

■♥tr♦❞✉❝t✐♦♥ ▼♦❞❡❧ ❈❛❧✐❜r❛t✐♦♥ ❘❡s✉❧ts ▼❡❝❤❛♥✐s♠ • ◆♦r♠❛❧ t✐♠❡s ✶✳ ❋✐r♠s ❤❡t❡r♦❣❡♥❡♦✉s ✐♥ ♣r♦❞✉❝t✐✈✐t②✱ s✐③❡ ❛♥❞ ❞❡❜t✳ ✷✳ ❋✐r♠s ❜♦rr♦✇ t♦ s❛t✐s❢② ❛ ♥♦♥✲♥❡❣❛t✐✈✐t② ❝♦♥str❛✐♥t ♦♥ ❞✐✈✐❞❡♥❞s✳ ✸✳ ❋✐r♠s ❝❛♥ ❞❡❢❛✉❧t ❛♥❞ ❡①✐t✳ ❋❛❝❡ ❧♦❛♥ ♣r❡♠✐✉♠s✳ ✹✳ ❍✐r✐♥❣ ✜r♠s ♣❛rt✐❝✐♣❛t❡ ✐♥ ❢r✐❝t✐♦♥❛❧ ❧❛❜♦r ♠❛r❦❡ts ✐♥ ✇❤✐❝❤ t❤❡② ♣♦st ✈❛❝❛♥❝✐❡s ✈ ✐t ✇✐t❤ r❡❝r✉✐t♠❡♥t ❡✛♦rt ❡ ✐t ✺✳ ❋❛st❡r ❣r♦✇✐♥❣ ✜r♠s ✜❧❧ ✈❛❝❛♥❝✐❡s ❢❛st❡r • ❉❛✈✐s✱ ❋❛❜❡r♠❛♥ ❛♥❞ ❍❛❧t✐✇❛♥❣❡r ✭✷✵✶✸✮ ✻✳ ❏♦❜ ❝r❡❛t✐♦♥ ❞♦♠✐♥❛t❡❞ ❜② ②♦✉♥❣ ✜r♠s • ❍❛❧t✐✇❛♥❣❡r✱ ❏❛r♠✐♥ ❛♥❞ ▼✐r❛♥❞❛ ✭✷✵✶✷✮

■♥tr♦❞✉❝t✐♦♥ ▼♦❞❡❧ ❈❛❧✐❜r❛t✐♦♥ ❘❡s✉❧ts ▼❡❝❤❛♥✐s♠ • ❋✐♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ❝r✐s✐s ↔ ■♥❝r❡❛s❡❞ ♣r❡♠✐✉♠ ♦♥ ❧♦❛♥s ✶✳ ❨♦✉♥❣ ✜r♠s ❝♦♥str❛✐♥❡❞ = ⇒ ▲❡ss ❣r♦✇t❤ ✷✳ ▲♦✇❡r ✈❛❧✉❡ ♦❢ ✜r♠s = ⇒ ↓ ❊♥tr② ✴ ↑ ❊①✐t ✸✳ ▲♦✇❡r r❡❝r✉✐t♠❡♥t ❡✛♦rt = ⇒ P❡rs✐st❡♥t ❢❛❧❧ ✐♥ t❤❡ ❡✣❝✐❡♥❝② ♦❢ t❤❡ ♠❡❛s✉r❡❞ ❛❣❣r❡❣❛t❡ ♠❛t❝❤✐♥❣ ❢✉♥❝t✐♦♥✳ ❖✉t✇❛r❞ s❤✐❢t ✐♥ t❤❡ ❇❡✈❡r✐❞❣❡ ❝✉r✈❡✳ ✹✳ ❖❧❞❡r ✜r♠s ❧❡ss ❛✛❡❝t❡❞ = ⇒ ↓ ❍✐r✐♥❣ r❛t❤❡r t❤❛♥ ↑ ❙❡♣❛r❛t✐♦♥s✳

■♥tr♦❞✉❝t✐♦♥ ▼♦❞❡❧ ❈❛❧✐❜r❛t✐♦♥ ❘❡s✉❧ts ❚♦❞❛② ✶✳ Pr❡s❡♥t ♠♦❞❡❧ ✷✳ ❉✐s❝✉ss ❝❛❧✐❜r❛t✐♦♥ ✸✳ ❋❡❛t✉r❡s ♦❢ t❤❡ ♠♦❞❡❧ • ❋✐r♠ ❞②♥❛♠✐❝s • ❈♦♠♣❛r✐s♦♥ ♦❢ st❡❛❞② st❛t❡s • ❘❡❝❡ss✐♦♥s ❞✉❡ t♦ ❝❤❛♥❣❡s ✐♥ ♣r♦❞✉❝t✐✈✐t②

■♥tr♦❞✉❝t✐♦♥ ▼♦❞❡❧ ❈❛❧✐❜r❛t✐♦♥ ❘❡s✉❧ts ❋✐r♠s ✲ ❉❡❢❛✉❧t ❱❛❧✉❡ ▲❡t Π( ♥ , ❜ , ③ ) ❜❡ t❤❡ ♣r❡s❡♥t ❞✐s❝♦✉♥t❡❞ ✈❛❧✉❡ ♦❢ ❞✐✈✐❞❡♥❞s ❛❢t❡r r❡❛❧✐s❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ♣r♦❞✉❝t✐✈✐t② ❛♥❞ ❡①✐t s❤♦❝❦✱ ❜❡❢♦r❡ t❤❡ ❡①✐t ✴ ❞❡❢❛✉❧t ❞❡❝✐s✐♦♥✳ • Pr♦❜❧❡♠ ♦❢ ❛♥ ✐♥❝✉♠❜❡♥t • ❈❤♦✐❝❡ ✿ ❙t❛② ❛♥❞ r❡♣❛②✱ ♦r ❊①✐t ❛♥❞ ❞❡❢❛✉❧t Π( ♥ , ❜ , ③ ) = ♠❛① { Π s ( ♥ , ❜ , ③ ) , ✵ } • ❈♦♥❞✐t✐♦♥❛❧ ♦♥ st❛②✐♥❣ • ❈❤♦✐❝❡ ✿ ❍✐r❡ ♦r ❋✐r❡ � Π ❢ ( ♥ , ❜ , ③ ) , Π ❤ ( ♥ , ❜ , ③ ) � Π s ( ♥ , ❜ , ③ ) = ♠❛①

■♥tr♦❞✉❝t✐♦♥ ▼♦❞❡❧ ❈❛❧✐❜r❛t✐♦♥ ❘❡s✉❧ts ❋✐r♠s ✲ ❋✐r✐♥❣ • ❈❤♦✐❝❡ ✿ ❋✐r♠ s✐③❡ ♥ ′ ❛♥❞ ❧❡✈❡❧ ♦❢ ❞❡❜t ❜ ′ � Π ❢ ( ♥ , ❜ , ③ ) ♥ ′ , ❜ ′ ❉ ❢ + β P ( ③ , ③ ′ )( ✶ − δ )Π( ♥ ′ , ❜ ′ , ③ ′ ) = ♠❛① ③ ′ ∈Z ③♥ ′ α − ✇ ( ♥ ′ , ❜ ′ , ③ ) ♥ ′ − χ + ❉ ❢ = + ◗ ( ♥ ′ , ❜ ′ , ③ ) ❜ ′ − ❜ ♥ ′ ∈ [ ♥ , ♥ ] ❉ ❢ ≥ ✵

■♥tr♦❞✉❝t✐♦♥ ▼♦❞❡❧ ❈❛❧✐❜r❛t✐♦♥ ❘❡s✉❧ts ❋✐r♠s ✲ ❍✐r✐♥❣ • ❈❤♦✐❝❡ ❋✐r♠ s✐③❡ ♥ ′ ✱ ❧❡✈❡❧ ♦❢ ❞❡❜t ❜ ′ ✱ r❡❝r✉✐t♠❡♥t ❡✛♦rt ❡ ✱ ✈❛❝❛♥❝✐❡s ✈ ′ � ♥ ′ , ❜ ′ , ❡ , ✈ ❉ ❤ + β Π ❤ ( ♥ , ❜ , ③ ) P ( ③ , ③ ′ )( ✶ − δ )Π( ♥ ′ , ❜ ′ , ③ ′ ) = ♠❛① ③ ′ ∈Z ③♥ ′ α − ✇ ( ♥ ′ , ❜ ′ , ③ ) ♥ ′ − χ − ❈ ( ❡ , ✈ , ♥ ) ❉ ❤ = + ◗ ( ♥ ′ , ❜ ′ , ③ ) ❜ ′ − ❜ ♥ ′ − ♥ = q❡✈ ♥ ′ > ♥ ❡ ∈ [ ✵ , ✶ ] ❉ ❤ ≥ ✵ • ❚✇♦✲st❛❣❡ ♣r♦❜❧❡♠✿ ✶✳ ❙t❛❣❡ ■ ❈❤♦♦s❡ t❛r❣❡t ❡♠♣❧♦②♠❡♥t ❧❡✈❡❧ ♥ ′ ✷✳ ❙t❛❣❡ ■■ ❈❤♦♦s❡ ♣♦s✐t✐♦♥s t♦ ♦♣❡♥ ✈ ✱ ❛♥❞ r❡❝r✉✐t♠❡♥t ❡✛♦rt ❡

■♥tr♦❞✉❝t✐♦♥ ▼♦❞❡❧ ❈❛❧✐❜r❛t✐♦♥ ❘❡s✉❧ts ❘❡❝r✉✐t♠❡♥t ♣r♦❜❧❡♠ � � � γ ✷ + ❝ κ � ✈ ❈ ( ♥ , ♥ ′ ) ❡ γ ✶ = ♠✐♥ ❡ , ✈ ❈ ( ❡ , ✈ , ♥ ) = ✈ γ ✷ + ✶ ♥ γ ✶ ♥ ′ − ♥ ≥ q❡✈ s . t .

■♥tr♦❞✉❝t✐♦♥ ▼♦❞❡❧ ❈❛❧✐❜r❛t✐♦♥ ❘❡s✉❧ts ■❞❡♥t✐✜❝❛t✐♦♥ • ❙♦❧✉t✐♦♥✿ q = µθ − φ � ♥ ′ − ♥ � � ✈ � � ❝ � φγ ✶ γ ✶ ❧♦❣ = Ω + ❧♦❣ θ + ❧♦❣ ♥ κ γ ✶ + γ ✷ γ ✶ + γ ✷ ♥ � ❤ � � ♥ ′ − ♥ � φγ ✶ γ ✷ � ❝ � ❧♦❣ = ✲ Ω − ❧♦❣ θ + ❧♦❣ κ ✈ γ ✶ + γ ✷ γ ✶ + γ ✷ ♥ Γ( κ ) � ✈ � γ ✷ ✈ ❈ ( ♥ , ♥ ′ ) = ✶ + γ ✷ ♥ ✶✳ γ ✷ /γ ✶ ❉❛✈✐s✱ ❋❛❜❡r♠❛♥ ❛♥❞ ❍❛❧t✐✇❛♥❣❡r ✭✷✵✶✸✮ γ ✷ ε ❢ , ❣ = γ ✶ + γ ✷ = ✵ . ✽✷ ✷✳ γ ✷ ❈♦♥tr♦❧s t❤❡ ✐♥❝r❡❛s✐♥❣ r❡t✉r♥s t♦ s❝❛❧❡ ✐♥ ✈❛❝❛♥❝✐❡s✳ ✸✳ κ ❚♦t❛❧ ❝♦st ♦❢ ❤✐r✐♥❣ ✹✳ ❝ /κ ▼❡❛♥ ✈❛❝❛♥❝② r❛t❡

■♥tr♦❞✉❝t✐♦♥ ▼♦❞❡❧ ❈❛❧✐❜r❛t✐♦♥ ❘❡s✉❧ts P♦t❡♥t✐❛❧ ❡♥tr❛♥ts • ❙t❛t❡ ❉r❛✇ ③ ∼ ❊①♣ ( ξ ) • ❈❤♦✐❝❡ ✿ ❊♥t❡r ♦r ❙t❛② ♦✉t Π ✵ ( ③ ) = ♠❛① { Π s ( ♥ , ✵ , ③ ) − χ ✵ , ✵ }

■♥tr♦❞✉❝t✐♦♥ ▼♦❞❡❧ ❈❛❧✐❜r❛t✐♦♥ ❘❡s✉❧ts ❇❛♥❦s • ❈♦♠♣❡t✐t✐✈❡ ❜❛♥❦s • ■♥t❡r♠❡❞✐❛t❡ ❢✉♥❞s ❛t ❝♦st ϕ • ❉❡♣♦s✐ts ❡❛r♥ r✐s❦✲❢r❡❡ r❛t❡ ❘ = ¯ ◗ − ✶ • Pr✐❝❡ ♣❡r ✉♥✐t ❧♦❛♥s✿ ◗ ( ♥ ′ , ❜ ′ , ③ ) • ❉❡❢❛✉❧t✿ ✭✐✮ ❋✐①❡❞ ❝♦st ♦❢ ❞❡❢❛✉❧t ζ ✱ ✭✐✐✮ ♥♦ r❡♣❛②♠❡♥t • ❊①♣❡❝t❡❞ r❡t✉r♥ ♦♥ ❧♦❛♥ ✐s ❡q✉❛❧ t♦ r✐s❦❧❡ss r❡t✉r♥ ♣❛✐❞ ♦♥ ❞❡♣♦s✐ts � � Pr [ ❘❡♣❛② | ♥ ′ , ❜ ′ , ③ ] − ζ ◗ ( ♥ ′ , ❜ ′ , ③ ) = ¯ ❜ ′ Pr [ ❉❡❢❛✉❧t | ♥ ′ , ❜ ′ , ③ ] ◗ ( ✶ − ϕ ) • Pr❡♠✐✉♠ ¯ ◗ / ◗ ( ♥ ′ , ❜ ′ , ③ ) ✐♥❝r❡❛s❡s ✇✐t❤ ↑ ϕ , ↑ ζ , ↑ Pr [ ❉❡❢❛✉❧t | ♥ ′ , ❜ ′ , ③ ] , ↓ ❜ ′

■♥tr♦❞✉❝t✐♦♥ ▼♦❞❡❧ ❈❛❧✐❜r❛t✐♦♥ ❘❡s✉❧ts ❈❛❧✐❜r❛t✐♦♥ P❛r❛♠❡t❡r ❱❛❧✉❡ ❆✳ ❍♦✉s❡❤♦❧❞ ❉✐s❝♦✉♥t r❛t❡ β ✵✳✾✾✻✼ ¯ ❙✐③❡ ♦❢ ❧❛❜♦r ❢♦r❝❡ ▲ ✶✼✳✺✷ ❇✳ ❋✐r♠s ❈♦st ❢✉♥❝t✐♦♥ γ ✷ ✻✳✻✹ ■♥✐t✐❛❧ ❧❛❜♦r ♥ ✶ ▼❡❛s✉r❡ ♣♦t❡♥t✐❛❧ ❡♥tr❛♥ts ✷✳✸ ▼ ✵ ❈✳ ▲❛❜♦r ♠❛r❦❡t ▼❛t❝❤✐♥❣ ❢✉♥❝t✐♦♥ φ ✵✳✻✵ ❇❛r❣❛✐♥✐♥❣ ♣♦✇❡r η ✵✳✻✵ ❉✳ Pr♦❞✉❝t✐✈✐t②