T HE C E R NT E C ANNOT H OL D : P AT RNS OF T E P OL ION ARIZAT - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
T HE C E R NT E C ANNOT H OL D : P AT RNS OF T E P OL ION ARIZAT IN N IGE RIA F . Cle me nti 1 , A. L . Da b a le n 2 , V. Mo lini 2 , a nd F . Sc he ttino 3 1 Unive rsity o f Mac e rata, Mac e rata, I taly 2 Wo rld Bank, Washing to n DC, USA
F . Cle me nti1, A. L . Da b a le n2, V. Mo lini2, a nd F . Sc he ttino 3
1 Unive rsity o f Mac e rata, Mac e rata, I
taly
2 Wo rld Bank, Washing to n DC, USA 3 Se c o nd Unive rsity o f Naple s, Naple s, I
taly
RVIE W
NT RODUCT ION
ia: T he GIP T r ilogy and Be yond
k
A AND ME T HODOL OGY
he Ne e d for Compar able Data
he Nige r ian House hold Consumption Data
nabling Data Compar ison for Nige r ia
he Re lative Distr ibution for Ine quality Que stions
he Re lative Distr ibution: Some Advantage s
E SUL T S
ian Consumption Distr ibution
UDING R E MARKS
E F E RE NCE S
E DGME NT S
UNU-WI DE R Co nfe re nc e o n "I ne q ua lity ‒ Me a sure me nt, T re nds, I mpa c ts, a nd Po lic ie s", He lsinki (F inla nd), 5 Se pte mb e r 2014 2
UNU-WI DE R Co nfe re nc e o n "I ne q ua lity ‒ Me a sure me nt, T re nds, I mpa c ts, a nd Po lic ie s", He lsinki (F inla nd), 5 Se pte mb e r 2014 3
se e ms to sug g e st a n inc re a se in “I ”-ne q ua lity tha t c o uld ha ve o ffse t the b e ne fits fro m susta ine d “G”-ro wth in te rms o f “P”-o ve rty re duc tio n.
ne q ua lity inc re a se is, ho we ve r, just o ne a spe c t o f the who le pro b le m; o ur hypo the sis is tha t Nig e ria is a lso g o ing thro ug h a pro c e ss o f e c o no mic po larizatio n.
disa ppe a ra nc e o f the middle c la ss (e .g . F
Wo lfso n, 1994, 1997); it c a n a lso b e re g a rde d a s the “c luste ring ” o f a po pula tio n a ro und two o r mo re po le s o f the inc o me / c o nsumptio n distrib utio n, whic h mig ht g ive rise to so c ia l c o nflic ts a nd te nsio ns (E ste b a n a nd Ra y, 1999, 2008, 2011).
a na lysis: GDP pe r c a pita ha s ste a dily g ro wn in the la st de c a de a nd Nig e ria is like ly to b e c o me the b ig g e st Afric a n e c o no my, b ut ye t c le a r sig ns o f c o nso lida tio n o f a na tio na l middle c la ss a re limite d; mo re o ve r, the c o untry is inc re a sing ly a ffe c te d b y sub -re g io na l c o nflic ts.
UNU-WI DE R Co nfe re nc e o n "I ne q ua lity ‒ Me a sure me nt, T re nds, I mpa c ts, a nd Po lic ie s", He lsinki (F inla nd), 5 Se pte mb e r 2014 4
a nd Ara a r, 2009, a nd Awo ye mi e t a l., 2010) a nd the limite d a va ila b ility o f c o mpa ra b le da ta se rie s no t to o c lo se in time ha s hinde re d a n inve stig a tio n
slo w a nd sig nific a nt c ha ng e s c a n b e de te c te d o nly o ve r lo ng pe rio ds.
he pre se nt study is inno va tive unde r a t le a st thre e a spe c ts: 1) unlike pre vio us studie s, ra the r tha n just c o mputing a nd c o mpa ring po la riza tio n indic e s, we a pply a no n-pa ra me tric to o l (the “re la tive distrib utio n”) to e xplo re po la riza tio n a lo ng the e ntire distrib utio n; 2) sinc e the re la tive distrib utio n a na lysis re q uire s a t le a st two c o mpa ra b le surve y ro unds, we use “surve y-to -surve y” imputa tio n te c hniq ue s to pro duc e fully c o mpa ra b le distrib utio ns; in this wa y we o ve rc o me the la c k o f c o mpa ra b le surve ys tha t limite d the sc o pe o f pre vio us wo rk. 3) sinc e Nig e ria is hig hly he te ro g e ne o us a c ro ss ma c ro re g io ns, we a lso a im a t do c ume nting sub -na tio na l pa tte rns o f po la riza tio n; the fle xib ility
a t the ma c ro -re g io na l le ve l to o .
UNU-WI DE R Co nfe re nc e o n "I ne q ua lity ‒ Me a sure me nt, T re nds, I mpa c ts, a nd Po lic ie s", He lsinki (F inla nd), 5 Se pte mb e r 2014 5
UNU-WI DE R Co nfe re nc e o n "I ne q ua lity ‒ Me a sure me nt, T re nds, I mpa c ts, a nd Po lic ie s", He lsinki (F inla nd), 5 Se pte mb e r 2014 6
xc luding c a se s o f sudde n sho c ks, me a sure s suc h a s ine q ua lity, po ve rty o r po la riza tio n te nd to mo ve slo wly in time ; c o mpa riso n o f suc h me a sure s, c o mpute d o n surve ys re la tive ly dista nt in time , c a pture s the re fo re mo re a c c ura te ly the e ffe c ts o f struc tura l mo dific a tio ns in the distrib utio n o f a we lfa re va ria b le .
impo ssib le – b y c ha ng e s in da ta c o lle c tio n me tho do lo g y (T a ro zzi, 2007).
n pa rtic ula r, the re is inc re a sing e vide nc e tha t q ue stio nna ire s re visio ns c a n a ffe c t re spo nde nts’ a nswe r in re le va nt wa ys (e .g . De a to n a nd Gro sh, 2000).
b a se d c o lle c tio n c a n dra ma tic a lly a lte r a g g re g a te fo o d c o nsumptio n e xpe nditure s, a re le va nt c o mpo ne nt o f to ta l e xpe nditure s in ma ny de ve lo ping c o untrie s (e .g . Be e g le e t a l., 2010, a nd Ahme d e t a l., 2014).
c o mpa riso n o f two distrib utio ns, it b e c o me s c ruc ia l using distrib utio ns suffic ie ntly dista nt in time in o rde r to se e sig nific a nt diffe re nc e s; the ne e d fo r c o mpa ra b le da ta re q uire s thus to b e dire c tly a ddre sse d.
UNU-WI DE R Co nfe re nc e o n "I ne q ua lity ‒ Me a sure me nt, T re nds, I mpa c ts, a nd Po lic ie s", He lsinki (F inla nd), 5 Se pte mb e r 2014 7
he Nig e ria ’ s Na tio na l Bure a u o f Sta tistic s (NBS) ha s g e ne ra lly use d the Na tio na l L iving Sta nda rd Surve y (NL SS) 2003/ 2004 a nd the Ha rmo nize d Na tio na l L iving Sta nda rd Surve y (HNL SS) 2009/ 2010 to mo nito r pro g re ss in po ve rty re duc tio n o ve r the la st de c a de .
he NBS a lso c o nduc ts o the r ho use ho ld surve ys, mo st no ta b ly the Ge ne ra l Ho use ho ld Surve y (GHS) c ro ss se c tio n a nd pa ne l.
he GHS c ro ss se c tio n is a surve y o f 22,000 ho use ho lds c a rrie d o ut pe rio dic a lly thro ug ho ut the c o untry; da ta o n c o nsumptio n a re c o lle c te d b y a sking the ho use ho ld a b o ut b ro a d c a te g o rie s o f c o nsume d ite ms in the la st mo nth: fo o d , he a lthc a re , sc ho o l, a nd so fo rth; a va ila b le da ta se ts inc lude 6 ro unds, fro m 2004/ 2005 to 2010/ 2011.
he GHS pa ne l is a ra ndo mly se le c te d sub -sa mple fro m GHS c ro ss se c tio n c o nsisting o f 5,000 ho use ho lds a nd c o ve ring the pe rio ds 2010/ 2011 (Wa ve 1) a nd 2012/ 2013 (Wa ve 2); it is re pre se nta tive a t na tio na l a nd zo na l (g e o - po litic a l) le ve ls; in e ve ry pa ne l wa ve , ho use ho lds a re inte rvie we d two time s:
the “po st-ha rve sting ” pe rio d (fro m F e b rua ry to April).
UNU-WI DE R Co nfe re nc e o n "I ne q ua lity ‒ Me a sure me nt, T re nds, I mpa c ts, a nd Po lic ie s", He lsinki (F inla nd), 5 Se pte mb e r 2014 8
surve ys a re no t dire c tly c o mpa ra b le ; pre limina ry c he c ks fo r po ve rty a nd ine q ua lity le ve ls c o mpute d o n the GHS pa ne l a nd the HNL SS, fo r e xa mple , indic a te tha t the fig ure s de rive d using the fo rme r lo o k sub sta ntia lly diffe re nt fro m tho se c o mpute d o n the la tte r.
“surve y-to -surve y” imputa tio n te c hniq ue s (E lb e rs e t a l., 2003).
e xpe nditure s o n the Wa ve 1 o f GHS pa ne l da ta b y inc luding se ve ra l ho use ho ld va ria b le s o n de mo g ra phic c ha ra c te ristic s, dura b le s a nd lo c a tio n a s e xpla na to rie s; we use the n the e stima te d c o e ffic ie nts to pre dic t c o nsumptio n o n the 2003/ 2004 NL SS surve y.
he va lidity o f the mo de l ha s b e e n te ste d b y me a ns o f b o th in-sa mple c rite ria (i.e . b y e va lua ting the R
2 size = 0.63) a nd o ut-o f-sa mple c rite ria (i.e .
b y te sting its a b ility to simula te the c o nsumptio n distrib utio n o f GHS pa ne l Wa ve 2, whe re ho use ho ld c o nsumptio n a nd no n-c o nsumptio n da ta a re a va ila b le re lia b ly) a g a inst two a lte rna tive imputa tio n me tho ds (F ig ure 1).
UNU-WI DE R Co nfe re nc e o n "I ne q ua lity ‒ Me a sure me nt, T re nds, I mpa c ts, a nd Po lic ie s", He lsinki (F inla nd), 5 Se pte mb e r 2014 9
F ig ure 1 Po st-I
mputa tio n Dia g no stic Plo ts
UNU-WI DE R Co nfe re nc e o n "I ne q ua lity ‒ Me a sure me nt, T re nds, I mpa c ts, a nd Po lic ie s", He lsinki (F inla nd), 5 Se pte mb e r 2014 10
he “re la tive distrib utio n” (Ha nd c o c k a nd Mo rris, 1998, 1999) c a n b e ta ke n a dva nta g e o f whe ne ve r the distrib utio n o f so me q ua ntity a c ro ss two po pula tio ns (o r po ints in time ) is to b e c o mpa re d.
he b a sic ide a unde rlying the re la tive distrib utio n is to ta ke the va lue s o f
po sitio ns in a no the r (the “re fe re nc e ” distrib utio n).
c o nsumptio n e xpe nditure , o ne me a sure d a t t - 1 a nd o ne a t t; tre a t t a s the c o mpa riso n distrib utio n a nd t – 1 a s the re fe re nc e distrib utio n, a nd d ivide this la tte r into de c ile s; the re la tive distrib utio n the n me a sure s wha t fra c tio n
re fe re nc e po pula tio n.
f the fra c tio n o f ho use ho lds in a de c ile rise s o r fa lls o ve r time , the re la tive distrib utio n will rise o r fa ll; if the re is no c ha ng e in the distrib utio n, the re la tive distrib utio n will b e fla t.
n this wa y, o ne c a n disting uish b e twe e n g ro wth, de c line o r sta b ility a t a ll po ints o n the distrib utio n.
UNU-WI DE R Co nfe re nc e o n "I ne q ua lity ‒ Me a sure me nt, T re nds, I mpa c ts, a nd Po lic ie s", He lsinki (F inla nd), 5 Se pte mb e r 2014 11
diffe re nc e s in lo c a tio n to iso la te c ha ng e s in distrib utio na l sha pe b e twe e n the c o mpa riso n a nd re fe re nc e po pula tio ns.
a djuste d” re fe re nc e po pula tio n re la tive to the una djuste d o ne .
po pula tio n re la tive to the lo c a tio n-a djuste d re fe re nc e po pula tio n.
“me dia n re la tive po la riza tio n” (MRP) inde x to summa rize distrib utio na l ine q ua litie s no t due to lo c a tio n shifts (it is lo c a tio n-a djuste d).
he MRP inde x ta ke s va lue s b e twe e n −1 a nd 1, whe re ze ro re pre se nts no diffe re nc e s in distrib utio na l sha pe while po sitive va lue s re pre se nt mo re po la riza tio n (inc re a se s in the ta ils o f the distrib utio n) a nd ne g a tive va lue s re pre se nt le ss po la riza tio n (c o nve rg e nc e to the c e nte r o f the distrib utio n).
t is a lso de c o mpo sa b le into the “uppe r” a nd “lo we r” re la tive po la riza tio n indic e s, re pre se nting the c o ntrib utio ns fro m the uppe r a nd lo we r ha lve s
UNU-WI DE R Co nfe re nc e o n "I ne q ua lity ‒ Me a sure me nt, T re nds, I mpa c ts, a nd Po lic ie s", He lsinki (F inla nd), 5 Se pte mb e r 2014 12
UNU-WI DE R Co nfe re nc e o n "I ne q ua lity ‒ Me a sure me nt, T re nds, I mpa c ts, a nd Po lic ie s", He lsinki (F inla nd), 5 Se pte mb e r 2014 13
c a pita c o nsumptio n e xpe nditure o f Nig e ria n ho use ho lds is pro vide d b y T a b le 1.
UNU-WI DE R Co nfe re nc e o n "I ne q ua lity ‒ Me a sure me nt, T re nds, I mpa c ts, a nd Po lic ie s", He lsinki (F inla nd), 5 Se pte mb e r 2014 14
UNU-WI DE R Co nfe re nc e o n "I ne q ua lity ‒ Me a sure me nt, T re nds, I mpa c ts, a nd Po lic ie s", He lsinki (F inla nd), 5 Se pte mb e r 2014 15
T a ble 1 Summa ry Me a sure s fo r Nig e ria n Ho use ho ld Co nsumptio n E
xpe nditure Pe r Ca pita
2003/ 2004 2012/ 2013
Me a n 64,424 93,597 Me d ia n 49,563 64,846 Sta nd a rd d e via tio n 60,565 201,536 Ske wne ss 7.11 53.15 K urto sis 142.57 4,853.21 Co nsumptio n sha re s Bo tto m 5% 0.80 0.77 Bo tto m 10% 2.09 2.00 Bo tto m 20% 5.61 5.33 T
45.82 50.52 T
29.65 35.44 T
18.76 24.77 Ine q ua lity me a sure s Gini 0.40 0.45 T he il 0.29 0.46 Po la riza tio n me a sure sa F
0.36 0.37 Duc lo s-E ste b a n-Ra y 0.24 0.26
a T
he Duc lo s-E ste b a n-Ra y ind e x ha s b e e n c o mpute d with the po la riza tio n se nsitivity pa ra me te r α se t a t 0.5
c a pita c o nsumptio n e xpe nditure o f Nig e ria n ho use ho lds is pro vide d b y T a b le 1.
he re la tive distrib utio n a na lysis re ve a ls a n o ve ra ll upshift o f the distrib utio n tha t pa rtly o b sc ure s a te nde nc y to po la riza tio n (F ig ure 2).
UNU-WI DE R Co nfe re nc e o n "I ne q ua lity ‒ Me a sure me nt, T re nds, I mpa c ts, a nd Po lic ie s", He lsinki (F inla nd), 5 Se pte mb e r 2014 16
F ig ure 2 Cha ng e s in the Nig e ria n Co nsumptio n Distrib utio n o ve r 2003-2013
UNU-WI DE R Co nfe re nc e o n "I ne q ua lity ‒ Me a sure me nt, T re nds, I mpa c ts, a nd Po lic ie s", He lsinki (F inla nd), 5 Se pte mb e r 2014 17
c a pita c o nsumptio n e xpe nditure o f Nig e ria n ho use ho lds is pro vide d b y T a b le 1.
he re la tive distrib utio n a na lysis re ve a ls a n o ve ra ll upshift o f the distrib utio n tha t pa rtly o b sc ure s a te nde nc y to po la riza tio n (F ig ure 2).
he size a nd sig n o f the e stima te d re la tive po la riza tio n indic e s c o nfirm the impre ssio n le ft b y the g ra phic a l displa y (T a b le 2).
UNU-WI DE R Co nfe re nc e o n "I ne q ua lity ‒ Me a sure me nt, T re nds, I mpa c ts, a nd Po lic ie s", He lsinki (F inla nd), 5 Se pte mb e r 2014 18
T a ble 2 Re la tive Po la riza tio n I
ndic e s, 2012/ 2013 to 2003/ 2004
UNU-WI DE R Co nfe re nc e o n "I ne q ua lity ‒ Me a sure me nt, T re nds, I mpa c ts, a nd Po lic ie s", He lsinki (F inla nd), 5 Se pte mb e r 2014 19
Inde xa Value L B
b
UB
c
p- value d
MRP 0.18 0.16 0.19 0.00 L RP 0.21 0.18 0.24 0.00 URP 0.15 0.12 0.18 0.00
a MRP = me d ia n re la tive po la riza tio n ind e x; L
RP = lo we r re la tive po la riza tio n ind e x; URP = uppe r re la tive po la riza tio n ind e x
b L
c Uppe r b o und o f the 95 pe rc e nt c o nfid e nc e inte rva l d Re fe rs to the null hypo the sis o f no c ha ng e with re spe c t to the re fe re nc e d istrib utio n, i.e . tha t the ind e x e q ua ls 0
c a pita c o nsumptio n e xpe nditure o f Nig e ria n ho use ho lds is pro vide d b y T a b le 1.
he re la tive distrib utio n a na lysis re ve a ls a n o ve ra ll upshift o f the distrib utio n tha t pa rtly o b sc ure s a te nde nc y to po la riza tio n (F ig ure 2).
he size a nd sig n o f the e stima te d re la tive po la riza tio n indic e s c o nfirm the impre ssio n le ft b y the g ra phic a l displa y (T a b le 2).
his pa tte rn o f distrib utio na l po la riza tio n, ho we ve r, is no t e ntire ly ho mo g e ne o us within the c o untry, b ut va rie s fro m zo ne to zo ne (F ig ure 3).
UNU-WI DE R Co nfe re nc e o n "I ne q ua lity ‒ Me a sure me nt, T re nds, I mpa c ts, a nd Po lic ie s", He lsinki (F inla nd), 5 Se pte mb e r 2014 20
F ig ure 3 Re la tive Po la riza tio n I
ndic e s b y Zo ne , 2012/ 2013 to 2003/ 2004
UNU-WI DE R Co nfe re nc e o n "I ne q ua lity ‒ Me a sure me nt, T re nds, I mpa c ts, a nd Po lic ie s", He lsinki (F inla nd), 5 Se pte mb e r 2014 21
Note T
he numb e r a b o ve o r b e lo w e a c h b a r ind ic a te s the p-va lue fo r the null hypo the sis tha t the ind e x e q ua ls 0
c a pita c o nsumptio n e xpe nditure o f Nig e ria n ho use ho lds is pro vide d b y T a b le 1.
he re la tive distrib utio n a na lysis re ve a ls a n o ve ra ll upshift o f the distrib utio n tha t pa rtly o b sc ure s a te nde nc y to po la riza tio n (F ig ure 2).
he size a nd sig n o f the e stima te d re la tive po la riza tio n indic e s c o nfirm the impre ssio n le ft b y the g ra phic a l displa y (T a b le 2).
his pa tte rn o f distrib utio na l po la riza tio n, ho we ve r, is no t e ntire ly ho mo g e ne o us within the c o untry, b ut va rie s fro m zo ne to zo ne (F ig ure 3).
ma c ro -re g io na l g a p se e ms to e me rg e : in fa c t, while the So uth So uth a nd So uth We st re g io ns c o ntrib ute ma inly to po la riza tio n in the uppe r ta il o f the na tio na l c o nsumptio n distrib utio n, ho use ho lds in the No rth E a st a nd No rth We st zo ne s – the c o nflic t-stric ke n a re a s – a re mo re like ly to fa ll in the lo we r na tio na l de c ile s c o mpa re d to the re st o f the c o untry (F ig ure 4).
UNU-WI DE R Co nfe re nc e o n "I ne q ua lity ‒ Me a sure me nt, T re nds, I mpa c ts, a nd Po lic ie s", He lsinki (F inla nd), 5 Se pte mb e r 2014 22
F ig ure 4 So urc e s o f Distrib utio na l Cha ng e b y Zo ne , 2003-2013
UNU-WI DE R Co nfe re nc e o n "I ne q ua lity ‒ Me a sure me nt, T re nds, I mpa c ts, a nd Po lic ie s", He lsinki (F inla nd), 5 Se pte mb e r 2014 23
c a pita c o nsumptio n e xpe nditure o f Nig e ria n ho use ho lds is pro vide d b y T a b le 1.
he re la tive distrib utio n a na lysis re ve a ls a n o ve ra ll upshift o f the distrib utio n tha t pa rtly o b sc ure s a te nde nc y to po la riza tio n (F ig ure 2).
he size a nd sig n o f the e stima te d re la tive po la riza tio n indic e s c o nfirm the impre ssio n le ft b y the g ra phic a l displa y (T a b le 2).
his pa tte rn o f distrib utio na l po la riza tio n, ho we ve r, is no t e ntire ly ho mo g e ne o us within the c o untry, b ut va rie s fro m zo ne to zo ne (F ig ure 3).
ma c ro -re g io na l g a p se e ms to e me rg e : in fa c t, while the So uth So uth a nd So uth We st re g io ns c o ntrib ute ma inly to po la riza tio n in the uppe r ta il o f the na tio na l c o nsumptio n distrib utio n, ho use ho lds in the No rth E a st a nd No rth We st zo ne s – the c o nflic t-stric ke n a re a s – a re mo re like ly to fa ll in the lo we r na tio na l de c ile s c o mpa re d to the re st o f the c o untry (F ig ure 4).
UNU-WI DE R Co nfe re nc e o n "I ne q ua lity ‒ Me a sure me nt, T re nds, I mpa c ts, a nd Po lic ie s", He lsinki (F inla nd), 5 Se pte mb e r 2014 24
UDING R E MARKS
UNU-WI DE R Co nfe re nc e o n "I ne q ua lity ‒ Me a sure me nt, T re nds, I mpa c ts, a nd Po lic ie s", He lsinki (F inla nd), 5 Se pte mb e r 2014 25
b ut de spite this the o utc o me s in te rms o f po ve rty re duc tio n ha ve no t b e e n sa tisfa c to ry, pro b a b ly due to fa st inc re a se s o f ine q ua lity.
ne q ua lity, ho we ve r, re pre se nts just o ne a spe c t o f the who le pro b le m: the c o untry, we a rg ue , is a lso unde rg o ing thro ug h a pro c e ss o f po la riza tio n.
we we re inde e d a b le to de te c t a c le a r rise in po la riza tio n, me a ning tha t the distrib utio na l c ha ng e s o b se rve d b e twe e n 2003/ 2004 a nd 2012/ 2013 ho llo we d o ut the middle o f the Nig e ria n ho use ho ld c o nsumptio n distrib utio n a nd inc re a se d c o nc e ntra tio n o f the ma ss to wa rd the ta ils.
he se mo dific a tio ns de sc rib e in pa rtic ula r a situa tio n whe re No rthe rn ho use ho lds inc re a sing ly mo ve d fro m the c e nte r to wa rd the b o tto m o f the distrib utio n, while So uthe rn ho use ho lds inc re a sing ly mo ve d upwa rd; the
furthe r a c c e ntua tio n o f the No rth-So uth divide c ha ra c te rizing the c o untry.
so c ie ty to b e mo re c o nflic t-pro ne ; o ur future re se a rc h will b e the re fo re dire c te d in unde rsta nding ho w e xisting c o nflic ts in Nig e ria c a n b e inte rpre te d a nd linke d to the pa tte rns o f po la riza tio n.
E F E RE NCE S (1)
UNU-WI DE R Co nfe re nc e o n "I ne q ua lity ‒ Me a sure me nt, T re nds, I mpa c ts, a nd Po lic ie s", He lsinki (F inla nd), 5 Se pte mb e r 2014 26
1. F . C. Ahme d , C. Do rji, S. T a ka ma tsu, a nd N. Yo shida . A Hyb rid Surve y to I mpro ve the Re liab ility
ffe c tive Manne r. Mime o , 2014. 2.
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