[PPT] - t w i Transport for Melbourne Whats the Plan? Photo Credit to PowerPoint Presentation

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The Australian Research Council Key Centre in Transport Management

Institute of Transport Studies (Monash)

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Transport for Melbourne

What’s the Plan?

Photo Credit to Daniel Bowen https://www.flickr.com/photos/danielbowen/6382532479

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The Australian Research Council Key Centre in Transport Management

Institute of Transport Studies (Monash)

Welcome

Professor Michael Buxton Centre for Urban Research RMIT University

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The Australian Research Council Key Centre in Transport Management

Institute of Transport Studies (Monash)

Professor Graham Currie

Public Transport Research Group Institute of Transport Studies Monash University

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The Australian Research Council Key Centre in Transport Management

Institute of Transport Studies (Monash)

Benchmarking Public Transport in Melbourne

Prof Graham Currie Public Transport Research Group Institute of Transport Studies Monash University

Transport for Melbourne What’s the plan? Thursday 4th August 2016

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Introduction Modal Problems Land Use Problems Improvement? Futures

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This paper examines Melbourne public transport performance

Mode Problems Land Use Problems Improvement? Futures

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Introduction Modal Problems Land Use Problems Improvement? Futures

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Buses ARE Melbourne’s public transport for most residents, which is a problem….

10 20

kilometres

Port Phillip Bay Western Port

Over two thirds of

Melbourne can only be serviced by bus services since rail and tram services lie considerable distances from where people live

r where they want to

travel to

In 1996 the Metropolitan

strategy team identified that 2.16M Melbournians lived In areas where buses were bus was the

nly means of access to

public transport. 0.98M lived within access distance of rail services

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…because there arent many

10 20

kilometres

Port Phillip Bay Western Port

Over two thirds of

Melbourne can only be serviced by bus services since rail and tram services lie considerable distances from where people live

r where they want to

travel to

In 1996 the Metropolitan

strategy team identified that 2.16M Melbournians lived In areas where buses were bus was the

nly means of access to

public transport. 0.98M lived within access distance of rail services

Weekday Service Frequency (2006)

Peak Off Peak

AV. MELBOURNE

40m 50m

Weekday Service Span

Weekday

AV. MELBOURNE

06:46-18:53

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The bus network on weekdays...

Source: Currie (2003) Source: Currie (2003)

Weekday Bus Services

Source: Currie (2003)

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…contrasts somewhat with weekends

Source: Currie (2003)

Sunday Bus Services

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Frequency drives Australian ridership performance

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220 271 304 305 307 400 402 404 407 410 437 442 443 508 527 552 561 564 612 623 624 627 683 685 766 781 784 785 800 811 812 850 926 700 (903) 703 888 889 900 901 503 506 507 521 541 542 545 546 548 T500 T501 100 111 120 124 125 130 135 140 150 155 160 170 180 200 210 212 250 555 T61 T62 T63 T64 T65 T70 T71 T75 T80

20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000

Boardings per route km Vehicle trips/annum

Melbourne Bus Melbourne Smartbus Adelaide NE Busway Brisbane SE Busway Sydney T-Ways

Source: Currie, G. and Delbosc A (2011) ‘Understanding bus rapid transit route ridership drivers: An empirical study of Australian BRT systems’ TRANSPORT POLICY Volume 18, Issue 5, September 2011, Pages 755-764

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In general our bus service level is poor compared to world practice

13 Source: Pan D (2013) ‘Key Transport Statistics of World Cities’ Journeys Sept 2013

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Tram services are struggling in growing traffic congestion

14 Source: VCEC (2006) Inquiry into Managing Transport Congestion

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Melbourne is the worlds biggest “streetcar” system

1 67 71 66 49 44 31 25 24 24 23 1 8 1 4 1 3 1 2 9 9 1 1 1 7 4 4 3 1 48 41 9 8 7 5 4 3 3 3 2 1 1 1

20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180

M E L BO UR NE T O RO N T O Du sse ld

rf

Bo ch u m E sse n Du isb u rg F ra n kfu rt/M a in Do rtm u nd M u lh e im Co lo g n e Ha n

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r M a n nh e im Ka rlsru h e (V B K) S tu ttg a rt Bo n n SW B Bi ele fe ld Bo n n SS B S aa rbru ch e n Na n tes ID F G re n

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to e llie r O rle a ns Ro u e n S trasb

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M a n che ste r No ttin g h am W e st M id la nd s T yn e a nd W ea r S an F ran cisco Ph ila d e lp hia S alt L a ke City S an D ie go S acram e n to G a lve sto n Pi ttsb urg h M e mp h is Ba ltimo re Da lla s Ne w ark Ke n

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is S an Jo se Cl ev ela n d De n ve r Ne w O rle an s Bu ffa lo Ne w ark S ea ttl e

Tram Track Km in Mixed Traffic

German Cities French Cities UK Cities USA Cities

Melbourne Toronto

Source: Currie G and Shalaby A (2007) ‘Success and Challenges in Modernising Streetcar Systems – Experience in Melbourne and Toronto’ Transportation Research Record No 2006 Transportation Research Board Washington DC ISSN 0361-1981 pp 31-39 2007

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Mixed Traffic service impedes performance

40 34 32 31 30 30 26 26 25 25 25 22 21 21 21 21 21 20 20 20 20 1 9 1 9 1 9 1 9 1 9 1 8 1 8 1 8 1 8 1 8 1 8 1 8 1 8 1 8 1 7 1 7 1 7 1 7 1 7 1 7 1 7 1 7 1 7 1 7 1 7 1 6 1 6 1 6 1 6 1 6 1 6 1 6 1 5 1 5 1 5 1 5 1 5 1 5 1 5 1 4 1 4 1 4 1 4 1 4 1 3 1 2 1 2 1 1 9

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

Skagen, Guadalajara, Toulouse, Washington, Laon, Stuttgart, Hong Kong, Strasbourg, New York, M annheim, Los Angeles, Rotterdam, Tunis, Hong Kong, M ainz, Heidelberg M unich, Riga, Berlin, Oslo, Paris, Budapest, Zwickau, Constanta, Amsterdam, Creil, Vienna, Zagreb, Genève M ELBOURNE Torino, Toronto, Tallinn, Würzburg, M ilano, Lisbon,

Average Speed (KPH)

Source: UITP Databank

Average Operating Speeds – World Tram/Light Rail Systems

City/ System

Melbourne (15/16 kph)

Melbourne Tram Reliability

33% of services are

considered to be NOT running on time

On time defined as arriving

more than 1 min early of more than 6 mins late

Source: Track Record

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Melbourne tram ridership is low compared to overseas systems; due to low relative frequency

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2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000

P a s s e n g e r s p e r v e h i c l e k m Vehicle trips per annum BRT (Australia) Light Rail (Australia) Light Rail (USA) Light Rail (Europe)

Source: Currie G and Delbosc A (2013) ‘Exploring Comparative Ridership Drivers of Bus Rapid Transit and Light Rail Transit Routes’ JOURNAL OF PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION Journal of Public Transportation, Vol. 16, No. 2, 2013 pp47-65

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Better performing railways are built on new not old infrastructure and strong resilience/reliability

33 45 52.6 55 20 30 40 50 60 Melbourne Singapore Hong Kong Perth

Average Speed (Kph)

Av. Speed (Kph)

15 50 100 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 Melbourne Sydney Best Practice Singapore Hong Kong

Breakdowns in Service (000 kms)

Av. Speed (Kph)

Never Recorded

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...yet expanding rail, thus making it more complex, has been our approach to mass transit expansion

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Unplanned disruptions are common; e.g. reported signal faults; 1,900 p.a. (5+/day)

21 Source: Adam Carey, The Age, ‘Signal failures are causing chronic rail delays’ 23/10/2013 Reported Signaling Disruptions

1,900 signal failures p.a. (12

months to August 2013)

5.2 per day
Biggest Locations:
Flinders Street Station 89
North Melbourne 71
Newport 51

Metro Trains "We are installing advanced computer technology which improves control of the signalling system, but our field equipment is outdated and requires replacing,"

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Melbourne rail demand growth has been impressive by any standard

127.9 131.8 133.8 134.9 146.0 162.4 178.6 201.2 213.9 219.3 228.9 222 225.5 120.0 140.0 160.0 180.0 200.0 220.0 240.0

2000-1 2001-2 2002-3 2003-4 2004-5 2005-6 2006-7 2007-8 2008-9 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13

Year

History of Rail Patronage - Melbourne

Rail Demand M trips p.a.

Source: Department of Transport/ Public Transport Victoria Annual Reports

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However the rail network has reached capacity

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So what do passengers think about these issues?

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Source: Currie G Delbosc A (2015) Variation in Perceptions

f Urban Public

Transport Performance Between International Cities Using Spiral Plot Analysis' TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH RECORD

No. 2538 on pages 54-
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5

0.5 Safe at night Reliability Frequency Safe during day PT available where and when needed Deal with disruptions quickly Get to stops/stations Quality of service Make connections Available on weekends Get information about PT Disruptions don't happen often Meet costs Information to plan journey People I care for can use it safely Available at night Ease of buying/using ticket Overcrowding Staff curteous and friendly Physical access Can make trips to new places on PT Travel time compared to car Comfortable with strangers on PT

Boston Brisbane London Melbourne New York Perth San Francisco Sydney Toronto Average Highest Importance Lowest Importance

PERFORMANCE MINUS IMPORTANCE RATINGS SPIRAL PLOT

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Introduction Modal Problems Land Use Problems Improvement? Futures

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The Transit Orientation of Development

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Source: Cervero and Kockleman (1997)

Density – the concentration and compactness of development within geographic space Diversity – the land use mix including the balance and compatability

f users with each other

(and transit) Design – which relates how the various land uses are combined, linked and presented in terms of ease of access and attractiveness

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Source: Aston L, Currie G and K Pavkova (2016) ) ‘Does Transit Mode Influence the Transit-Orientation of Urban Development? - An Empirical Study’ JOURNAL OF TRANSPORT GEOGRAPHY Vol 55 (2016) pp83-91

Walkers Paradise Very Walkable Somewhat Walkable Car Dependent 2 8

The Transit Orientation of Development – Design (Walkability) in Melbourne

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Minimum Density (including JOBS) for Effective PT Provision (Newman & Kenworthy (2006)

The Transit Orientation of Development – Density in Melbourne

Source: Aston L, Currie G and K Pavkova (2016) ) ‘Does Transit Mode Influence the Transit-Orientation of Urban Development? - An Empirical Study’ JOURNAL OF TRANSPORT GEOGRAPHY Vol 55 (2016) pp83-91

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Source: Aston L, Currie G and K Pavkova (2016) ) ‘Does Transit Mode Influence the Transit-Orientation of Urban Development? - An Empirical Study’ JOURNAL OF TRANSPORT GEOGRAPHY Vol 55 (2016) pp83-91

The Transit Orientation of Development – OVERALL Melbourne – only in central areas

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Introduction Modal Problems Land Use Problems Improvement? Futures

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Since 2001 PT service increased 63% (66% bus/ 36% rail, 10% tram) but - but population growth continues at a faster pace…

100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170

2001-2 2002-3 2003-4 2004-5 2005-6 2006-7 2007-8 2008-9 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16e 2016-17e

Rail Tram Bus Total

Index of Public Transport Service Kms p.a (2001-2=100)

Year Vehicle Kms p.a. (2001-2=100)

3.6 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.9 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.7 3 3.2 3.4 3.6 3.8 4 4.2 4.4 4.6 4.8 5

200 1-2 200 3-4 200 5-6 200 7-8 200 9-10 201 1-12 201 3-14 201 5- 16e

520

Population Growth (M)

Year Population (M)

Source: Department of Transport/ Public Transport Victoria Annual Reports

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…in last 10 years, per capita service increased to 22% but declined since 2011 (we have gone down by 9% points); recent trend is flat

Source: Department of Transport/ Public Transport Victoria Annual Reports

100 102 102 100 102 105 107 112 114 121 122 119 114 113 113 113 95 100 105 110 115 120 125

2001-2 2002-3 2003-4 2004-5 2005-6 2006-7 2007-8 2008-9 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015- 16e 2016- 17e

Year Relative Service Level Per Head Service Levels (Vkms supplied) Per Capita

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Introduction Modal Problems Land Use Problems Improvement? Futures

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Melbourne is expected to increase in size by another 1-2M people in 20- 30 years

0.35 0.67 0.98 1.27 1.55 1.82 2.08 2.33 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046 2051 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Growth (M) Year

Source: Victoria in Future (2012)

Forecast Melbourne Population Growth Population Growth Total (M)

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Melbourne Metro; exciting but capacity upgrade is long overdue now – current start date is 2026!

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Melbourne rail grade separations; exciting some capacity relief but not an increase in service

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Where is tram and bus priority? – SmartBus; downgraded?

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39 www.worldtransitresearch.info

9

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ALSO: NEW PTRG WEBSITE PTRG.INFO

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Join the ITS (Monash) LinkedIn group to keep informed of our activities

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Planning Public Transport Services – Short Course Melbourne 15-18 August, 2016

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Professor Jago Dodson

Centre for Urban Research RMIT University

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Nicholas Low

President of Transport for Melbourne

Roger Taylor

Chair of Transport for Melbourne

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Victoria McKenzie-McHarg

Climate Campaign Manager Australia Conservation Foundation

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Friends of Transport for Melbourne

John Hearsch – Rail Futures Mike Reece – VTAG Tony Morton – PTUA Oz Kayak – TCPA

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The Way Forward

Review forum feedback
Establish a federation of advocacy groups
Confirm a community transport charter
Engage with Government to develop a Transport Plan
On-going community involvement in the Transport Plan

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Become a Friend

f TfM

See our website

www.transportformelbourne.org

Thank you all for your participation this evening TfM thanks RMIT, Centre for Urban Research, for hosting this Forum