Sustainable Inclusive Growth in Brazil: Past Achievements and - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Sustainable Inclusive Growth in Brazil: Past Achievements and - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Jul 26, 2023 267 likes •952 views

CTEDRA Instituto Ayrton Senna Sustainable Inclusive Growth in Brazil: Past Achievements and Challenges Ahead Ricardo Paes de Barros (IAS/Insper), Diana Coutinho (IAS), Marina de Cuffa (IAS/Insper), Samuel Franco (OPE Sociais), Beatriz

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CÁTEDRA

Instituto Ayrton Senna

CÁTEDRA

Instituto Ayrton Senna

Brasília October, 2017 Ricardo Paes de Barros (IAS/Insper), Diana Coutinho (IAS), Marina de Cuffa (IAS/Insper), Samuel Franco (OPE Sociais), Beatriz Garcia (Insper/IAS), Rosane Mendonça (UFF), Laura Müller Machado (IAS/Insper), Camila Soares (IAS/Insper)

Sustainable Inclusive Growth in Brazil: Past Achievements and Challenges Ahead

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CÁTEDRA

Instituto Ayrton Senna

Achievements

1

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CÁTEDRA

Instituto Ayrton Senna

  • 1. Achievements
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CÁTEDRA

Instituto Ayrton Senna

  • 1. Achievements
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Instituto Ayrton Senna

  • 1. Achievements

2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

percentage of the population below the extreme poverty line

Evolution of the Extreme Poverty in Brazil

MDG Reduction in extreme poverty 4 times faster than required by the MDG MDG met 10 years in advance

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CÁTEDRA

Instituto Ayrton Senna

  • 1. Achievements

38,7 38,3 39,4 36,9 34,2 29,7 28,0 25,2 23,8 20,6 18,0 17,0 15,3 17,1 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 percentage of the population below the poverty line

Evolution of Poverty in Brazil

Reduction in poverty 2,5 faster than required to reduce to 1/2 in 25 years

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CÁTEDRA

Instituto Ayrton Senna

  • 1. Achievements

38,7 38,3 39,4 36,9 34,2 29,7 28,0 25,2 23,8 20,6 18,0 17,0 15,3 17,1 38,7 38,7 41,1 39,5 37,5 34,5 33,5 31,8 31,1 28,6 26,7 25,5 24,7 26,9 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 percentage of the population below the poverty line

Evolution of Poverty in Brazil

With reduction in inequality without reduction in inequality

11,8 21,6

Almost ½ of the reduction in poverty is due to the reduction in inequality

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Instituto Ayrton Senna

  • 1. Achievements

0,0% 0,5% 1,0% 1,5% 2,0% 2,5% 3,0% 3,5% 4,0% 4,5% 5,0%

First Second Third Fourth Fifth Sixth Seventh Eigth Ninth Tenth

Average annual growth rate of the labor income per worker by tenths of the income distribution: Brazil, 2001-2015

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Instituto Ayrton Senna

  • 1. Achievements
  • 1,5%
  • 1,0%
  • 0,5%

0,0% 0,5% 1,0% 1,5% 2,0% 2,5% 3,0% 3,5% 4,0% 4,5% 5,0%

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 average annual growth rate (%) percentile of the income distribution

Average annual growth rate of labor income per worker by percentile

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Instituto Ayrton Senna

  • 1. Achievements

4,0% 5,0% 6,0% 7,0% 8,0% 9,0% 10,0% 11,0% 12,0% 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

unemployment rate Monthly average earnings (R$ of 2014)

Evolution of the Main Brazilian Labor Market Indicators II

Average Earnings Unemployment Rate

R$1,731 real wage increase 44% in 10 years R$1,199 9,0% unemolyment rate declined almost two percentage points in 10 years 7,0%

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Instituto Ayrton Senna

  • 1. Achievements

36,0 37,5 39,0 40,5 42,0 43,5 45,0 46,5 48,0 49,5 51,0 52,5 54,0 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 650 700 750 800 850 900 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

percentage of the labor force in the formal sector Minimum wage (R$ of 2015)

Evolution of the Main Brazilian Labor Market Indicators I

Minimum Wage Degree of Formalization

R$440 R$872 real minimum wage doubled in 20 years the degreee of formalization increased 10 percentage points 41% 51%

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CÁTEDRA

Instituto Ayrton Senna

  • 1. Achievements

Determinantes Brasil 2001 Brasil 2015 Diferencial Contribuição Renda per capita

52 118 6,0% 100%

Porcentagem de adultos

51% 60% 1,1% 13%

Renda nào derivada do trabalho por adulto

24 85 9,6% 56%

Taxa de ocupação (%)

48% 40%

  • 1,3%
  • 12%

Remuneração do trabalho por ocupado

161 279 4,0% 43%

Fonte: estimado com base na Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílios (PNAD).

Determinantes do diferencial da renda per capita do 1º Décimo: Área Total

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Instituto Ayrton Senna

  • 1. Achievements

Determinantes Brasil 2001 Brasil 2015 Diferencial Contribuição Renda per capita

89 187 5,4% 100%

Porcentagem de adultos

54% 63% 1,0% 14%

Renda nào derivada do trabalho por adulto

36 97 7,3% 39%

Taxa de ocupação (%)

52% 44%

  • 1,2%
  • 12%

Remuneração do trabalho por ocupado

246 459 4,5% 60%

Fonte: estimado com base na Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílios (PNAD).

Determinantes do diferencial da renda per capita dos 20% mais pobres: Área Total

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Instituto Ayrton Senna

  • 1. Achievements

Determinantes Brasil 2001 Brasil 2015 Diferencial Contribuição Renda per capita

155 303 4,9% 100%

Porcentagem de adultos

60% 68% 0,9% 15%

Renda nào derivada do trabalho por adulto

56 130 6,2% 34%

Taxa de ocupação (%)

54% 48%

  • 0,9%
  • 11%

Remuneração do trabalho por ocupado

377 662 4,1% 62%

Fonte: estimado com base na Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílios (PNAD).

Determinantes do diferencial da renda per capita dos 40% mais pobres: Área Total

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Instituto Ayrton Senna

  • 1. Achievements

Determinantes Brasil 2001 Brasil 2015 Diferencial Contribuição Renda per capita

754 1057 2,4% 100%

Porcentagem de adultos

71% 79% 0,7% 27%

Renda nào derivada do trabalho por adulto

235 329 2,4% 24%

Taxa de ocupação (%)

60% 58%

  • 0,2%
  • 7%

Remuneração do trabalho por ocupado

1364 1730 1,7% 56%

Fonte: estimado com base na Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílios (PNAD).

Determinantes do diferencial da renda per capita: Área Total

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It is possible to sustain this rate of poverty reduction

2

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Instituto Ayrton Senna

  • 2. It is possible to sustain this rate of poverty reduction

0,20 0,22 0,24 0,26 0,28 0,30 0,32 0,34 0,36 0,38 0,40 0,42 0,44 0,46 0,48 0,50 0,52 0,54

Denmark Slovak Republic Slovenia Norway Czech Republic Iceland Finland Belgium Sweden Austria Netherlands Switzerland Germany Hungary Poland Luxembourg Ireland France Korea Australia Italy New Zealand Spain Estonia Portugal Greece United Kingdom Israel United States Turkey Mexico Brazil

Gini Coefficient

Income Inequality in High and Middle Income Countries: 2012 Inequality remains very high

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Instituto Ayrton Senna

2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

porcentagem da renda total (%)

Evolução da porcentagem da renda das famílias apropriada pelos 40% e 50% mais pobres no Brasil

40% mais pobre 50% mais pobre

Evolution of the percentage of the total income going to the poorest 40% and 50% in Brazil

Percentage of total income (%)

Bottom 50% Bottom 40%

  • 2. It is possible to sustain this rate of poverty reduction
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15,0 15,5 16,0 16,5 17,0 17,5 18,0 18,5 19,0 19,5 20,0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

percentage of GDP

Evolution of the Brazilian Primary Federal Expenditures as a Percentage of GDP: 2002-2014

Federal Primary Expenditures are increasing 0,4 percentage points per year

Severe Fiscal Imbalance

  • 2. It is possible to sustain this rate of poverty reduction
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CÁTEDRA

Instituto Ayrton Senna 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Taxa de crescimento anual (%) porcentagem de países

Distribuição dos países de acordo com o gasto governaental como porcentagem do PIB

Brasil

72% 41%

Distribution of countries according to total government expenditure as a percentage of GDP

Total government expenditure as percentage of GDP Percentage of countries

  • 2. It is possible to sustain this rate of poverty reduction
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Instituto Ayrton Senna 0,35 0,36 0,37 0,38 0,39 0,40 0,41 0,42 0,43 0,44 0,45 0,46 0,47 0,48 0,49 0,50 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 coeficiente de Gini

Evolução do grau de desigualdade salarial entre os empregados públicos (estatutários) e os empregados com carteira no setor privado: Coeficiente de Gini. 2001-2014

Funcionários públicos estatutários Empregados com carteira no setor privado

Evolution of the wage inequality among employees in the public and private sectors

Gini coefficient

Employees in the Public Sector Employees in the Private Sector

  • 2. It is possible to sustain this rate of poverty reduction
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Required growth and inequality reduction

3

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Instituto Ayrton Senna

  • 3. Required growth and inequality reduction

2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 poverty level (%) Balanced growth (%)

Impact of balanced growth on poverty: Brazil, 2015

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Instituto Ayrton Senna

  • 3. Required growth and inequality reduction

Determinantes Brasil 2001 Brasil 2015 Diferencial Contribuição Renda per capita

754 1057 2,4% 100%

Porcentagem de adultos

71% 79% 0,7% 27%

Renda nào derivada do trabalho por adulto

235 329 2,4% 24%

Taxa de ocupação (%)

60% 58%

  • 0,2%
  • 7%

Remuneração do trabalho por ocupado

1364 1730 1,7% 56%

Fonte: estimado com base na Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílios (PNAD).

Determinantes do diferencial da renda per capita: Área Total 17 years

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Instituto Ayrton Senna

  • 3. Required growth and inequality reduction

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20%

0% 20% 40% 60% poverty level (%) growth in factors determining per capita income

Impact on the level of poverty of increasing the level of factors determining per capita income

proportion

  • f adults

nonlabor income labor income

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Instituto Ayrton Senna

2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 poverty level (%) reduction in inequality (%)

Inpact of inequality reduction on poverty: Brazil, 2015

  • 3. Required growth and inequality reduction
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Instituto Ayrton Senna

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 inequality reduction (%) growth rate (%)

Iso-poverty: combinations of growth and inequality reductions leading to a reduction in poverty to one-half

  • 3. Required growth and inequality reduction
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Better Targeting

4

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Instituto Ayrton Senna

  • 4. Better Targeting

10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 110% 120% 130% 140% 150%

Exclusion Error (% of total program expenditures targeted using

reported income)

Inclusion Error (% of total programa expenditures targeted using reported income)

Inclusion and Exclusion Errors Associated with the Current "Bolsa Família" Program Targeting Mechanisms

Reported Income Fixed value for all current beneficiaries Possibilities using an income predictor 97% 86% 79% 34% 100%

“Bolsa Família” Targeting System based on reported income has very serious flaws

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5 10 15 20 25 30 35 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85

porcentagem da população abaixo da linha de pobreza (%)

Evolução da porcentagem da população abaixo da linha de pobreza por faixa etária: Brasil, 2014

Média 2x 6x

Age Profile of the Extreme Poverty Rate

Percentage of the ‘population below the extreme poverty line Age

Mean

  • 4. Better Targeting
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CÁTEDRA

Instituto Ayrton Senna 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 Primeiro Segundo Terceiro Quarto Quinto Sexto Sétimo Oitavo Nono Décimo Porcentagem de crianças de até 3 anos em creche

Evolução da taxa de frequência a creche pública para crianças de 0 a 3 anos, segundo os décimos da distribuição de renda: Brasil, 2015

Fonte: Estimativas produzidas a partir da Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílios (PNAD).

Private Public

Access to Daycare Centers (children up to 3 years old) by tenths of the income distribution: Brazil, 2015

percentage of children up to 3 years old First Second Third Fourth Fifth Sixth Seventh Eighth Ninth Tenth

  • 4. Better Targeting
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Instituto Ayrton Senna 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

porcentagem de crianças de até 3 anos de idade que frequentam creches (%)

Evolução da porcentagem de crianças de até 3 anos de idade frequentando Creches: 2001-2013

10% mais pobres 10% mais ricos 14 p.p. 7 p.p.

Evolution of the access to daycare centers (children up to 3 years old) by tenths of the income distribution: Brazil, 2001-2013

percentage of children up to 3 years old

  • 4. Better Targeting
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Balanced growth of earnings and productivity

5

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  • 5. Balanced growth of earnings and productivity

Nota: Renda deflacionada com INPC; PIB com deflator implícito do PIB. Fonte: Renda, Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílios (PNAD/IBGE); PIB, Sistema de Contas Nacionais (SCN/IBGE).

80 85 90 95 100 105 110 115 120 125 130 135 140 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Crescimento acumulado desde 2001

Produ vidade do Trabalho vs. Renda do Trabalho Base: 2001 (séries reais)

Remuneração média do trabalho PIB por trabalhador

  • 18

p. p.

Labor Productivity and Real Labor Income (2001=100)

Accumulated growth since 2001

Real Labor Income Labor Productivity

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Instituto Ayrton Senna

80 85 90 95 100 105 110 115 95 96 97 98 99 100 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 109 110 111 112 113 114 115 Remuneração do Trabalho (1996=100)

  • Produ vidade

do Trabalho (1996=100)

  • Crescimento

da Remuneração do Trabalho vs Crescimento da Produ vidade do Trabalho (1996 a 2003)

1996 2003

Nota: Produtividade definida como PIB real/trabalhadores; Remuneração deflacionada com INPC; Produtividade com deflator implícito do PIB. Fonte: Remuneração, Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílios (PNAD/IBGE); Produtividade, Sistema de Contas Nacionais (SCN/IBGE).

Growth in Labor Productivity and Real Labor Income: 1996 to 2003

Labor Income (1996=100) Labor Productivity (1996=100)

Alignment or misalignment?

  • 5. Balanced growth of earnings and productivity
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80 85 90 95 100 105 110 115 95 96 97 98 99 100 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 109 110 111 112 113 114 115 Remuneração do Trabalho (1996=100)

  • Produ vidade

do Trabalho (1996=100)

  • Crescimento

da Remuneração do Trabalho vs Crescimento da Produ vidade do Trabalho (1996 a 2003)

1996 2003 2003

Nota: Produtividade definida como PIB real/trabalhadores; Remuneração deflacionada com INPC; Produtividade com deflator implícito do PIB. Fonte: Remuneração, Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílios (PNAD/IBGE); Produtividade, Sistema de Contas Nacionais (SCN/IBGE).

Growth in Labor Productivity and Real Labor Income: 1996 to 2011

Labor Income (1996=100) Labor Productivity (1996=100)

Alignment or misalignment?

2011

  • 5. Balanced growth of earnings and productivity
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Instituto Ayrton Senna 75 80 85 90 95 100 105 110 115 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 (1996=100)

The Evolution of Labor Productivity and Real Average Earnings in Brazil: 1996-2011

Real average labor earnings Labor average productivity (GDP per worker)

Imbalance or Alignment Between Labor Productivity and Labor Earnings?

  • 5. Balanced growth of earnings and productivity
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Productive Inclusion

6

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  • 6. Productive Inclusion

80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 labor force participation for men aged 25 to 29 years old (%)

Evolution of the Brazilian labor force participation rate among men aged 25 to 29 years-old, by their educational level: 1992-2014

Functionally illiterate 5 to 9 years of schooling (complete primary education) Secondary education

Generating Persistent Poverty? Labor Marker Difficult in Absorbing Very Low-Skilled Youth

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  • 6. Productive Inclusion

30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

turnover rates (% of the labor force per year)

Evoluton of Turnover Rates among Brazilian Formal Employees: 2003-2015

All workers Low wage ( 2MW) workers

Excess Turnover

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  • 6. Productive Inclusion

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Thousands US$ (2005) per worker per year

The Evolution of the Average Labor Productivity Selected countries: 1950-2011

Japan Korea Argentina Brazil Chile China

Source: SAE/PR based on the Penn World Tables. Labor productivity as GDP/worker (Real GDP at constant 2005 national prices).

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  • 6. Productive Inclusion

10.000 20.000 30.000 40.000 50.000 60.000 70.000 80.000 10.000 20.000 30.000 40.000 50.000 60.000 70.000 80.000

Labor Productivity in 2011 (US$ (2005) per year per worker) Labor Productivity in 1980 (US$ (2005) per year per worker)

Ratio between labor productivity in 1980 and 2011

Brazil Korea

Source: SAE/PR based on the Penn World Tables. Labor productivity as GDP/worker (Real GDP at constant 2005 national prices).

China

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  • 6. Productive Inclusion

0,0 0,5 1,0 1,5 2,0 2,5 3,0 3,5 4,0 4,5 Uruguai Brasil Chile Bolívia Paraguai Colômbia Venezuela Suriname Equador Peru Argentina

Taxa anual de crescimento da produtividade média do trabalho na América do Sul (2001-2011)

América do Sul, Brasil excluído average annual growth rate (%)

Latin America without Brazil

Average annual growth rate in labor productivity: Latin America 2001-2011

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  • 6. Productive Inclusion
  • 5
  • 4
  • 3
  • 2
  • 1

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Zimbabwe Madagascar Liberia Comoros Ivory Coast Central African Republic Gabon Togo Benin Guinea Guinea-Bissau Burundi Cameroon Niger Swaziland Senegal Gambia Mali Mauritania Namibia Djibouti Congo - Brazzaville Kenya South Africa Egypt Botswana Tunisia Malawi Congo - Kinshasa Cape Verde Sao Tome and Principe Burkina Faso Sudan Mauritius Lesotho Morocco Zambia Uganda Sierra Leone Tanzania Ghana Mozambique Rwanda Chad Ethiopia Nigeria Angola Equatorial Guinea

Taxa anual de crescimento da produtividade média do trabalho na África (2001-2011)

África Brasil

Average annual growth rate in labor productivity: Africa 2001-2011

average annual growth rate (%)

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Connectivity between education and economic activity

7

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  • 7. Connectivity between education

and economic activity

8,0 8,5 9,0 9,5 10,0 10,5 11,0 11,5 12,0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2011 2012 2013 ganho percentual de remuneração por ano adicional de escolaridade (%)

Evolução dos diferencias de remuneração por nível educacional

Evolution of the wage differentials by educational level

Earnings gain due to one additional year of education (%)

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  • 7. Connectivity between education

and economic activity

In Chile, over the past 30 years, productivity growth has been $ 3,000 per additional year of workforce schooling.

Average Labor Productivity – GDP per worker (Thousand US$ (PPP) 1990) Average schooling on adult population (successfully concluded grades)

Evolution of schooling in adult population and labor production (1980-2010)

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  • 7. Connectivity between education

and economic activity

Average Labor Productivity – GDP per worker (Thousand US$ (PPP) 1990) Average schooling on adult population (successfully concluded grades)

Type I: Countries where productivity grows $ 3,000 per additional year of workforce schooling Evolution of schooling in adult population and labor production (1980-2010)

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  • 7. Connectivity between education

and economic activity

Average Labor Productivity – GDP per worker (Thousand US$ (PPP) 1990) Average schooling on adult population (successfully concluded grades)

Evolution of schooling in adult population and labor production (1980-2010) Type II: Countries where productivity grows $ 4,000 per additional year of workforce schooling

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  • 7. Connectivity between education

and economic activity

Average Labor Productivity – GDP per worker (Thousand US$ (PPP) 1990) Average schooling on adult population (successfully concluded grades)

Evolution of schooling in adult population and labor production (1980-2010) Type III: Countries where productivity grows $ 7,000 per additional year of workforce schooling

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  • 7. Connectivity between education

and economic activity

Average Labor Productivity – GDP per worker (Thousand US$ (PPP) 1990) Average schooling on adult population (successfully concluded grades)

Evolution of schooling in adult population and labor production (1980-2010) Type 0: Countries where productivity doesn’t grow with additional year of workforce schooling

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Over the past 25 years, Brazil has undergone an unprecedented educational

  • expansion. More

than 90% of the countries had a lower progress in this period than Brazil.

Fonte: Human Development Data (http://hdr.undp.org/en/data).

  • 7. Connectivity between education

and economic activity

Annual progress of average schooling of the working age population over the past 25 years by country

Countries distribution Annual progress of average shooling (years of schooling)

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Fonte: Human Development Data (http://hdr.undp.org/en/data).

  • 7. Connectivity between education

and economic activity

Over the past 25 years, Brazilian growth has been

  • slow. Less than

40% of the countries had lower economic growth in that period than Brazil. Annual growth rate of GDP per capita over the past 25 years by country

Countries distribution Annual growth rate of GDP per capita (GDP/habitant)

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In Brazil, growth in schooling has not been accompanied by significant growth in labor productivity. More than 2/3 of the countries have translated schooling into productivity better than Brazil.

Fonte: Human Development Data (http://hdr.undp.org/en/data).

  • 7. Connectivity between education

and economic activity

Ratio between productivity and schooling progress over the past 25 years by country

Countries distribution Ration between productivity and schooling progress (%)

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If Brazil had the same capacity to translate education into productivity as either Turkey or Korea, Brazilian economic growth would have been two to three times faster than it was over the last 25 years.

Fonte: Human Development Data (http://hdr.undp.org/en/data).

  • 7. Connectivity between education

and economic activity

Annual growth rate of GDP per capita over the past 25 years by country

Countries distribution Annual growth rate of GDP per capita (GDP/habitant)

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Ageing

8

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  • 8. Ageing

2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

Distribuição da população (%)

Evolution of the percentage of old-age population: Brazil, 1990-2060

At least 60 years old At least 70 years old

Source: SAE/PR based on population records and projections from IBGE

2014

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CÁTEDRA

Instituto Ayrton Senna

  • 8. Ageing

2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

Distribuição da população (%)

Evolution of the percentage of old-age population: Brazil, 1990-2060

At least 60 years old At least 70 years old

Source: SAE/PR based on population records and projections from IBGE

2014

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SLIDE 59

CÁTEDRA

Instituto Ayrton Senna

  • 8. Ageing

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

percentage of the population (%)

Evolution of the Distribution of the Brazilian Population by Age Groups: 1900 to 2060

Under 15 years old At least 60 years old Between 15 and 59 years old 2014

Source: SAE/PR based on population records and projections from IBGE

Less than 15 or at least 60 years old

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SLIDE 60

CÁTEDRA

Instituto Ayrton Senna

  • 8. Ageing

Source: Growing old in an older Brazil : implications of population aging on growth, poverty, public finance and service delivery / Michele Gragnolati, et al. Washington D.C.: The World Bank, 2011. p. 12.

Number of years for population 65+ to increase from 7% to 14%

Brazil is aging almost six times faster than did France

21 years 115 years

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SLIDE 61

CÁTEDRA

Instituto Ayrton Senna

  • 8. Ageing

Ratio between per capita public expenditure with the elderly and the youth: 2010

ratio

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SLIDE 62

CÁTEDRA

Instituto Ayrton Senna

  • 8. Ageing

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85

porcentagem da população abaixo da linha de pobreza (%)

Evolução da porcentagem da população abaixo da linha de pobreza por faixa etária: Brasil, 2014

Média 2x 6x

Age Profile of the Extreme Poverty Rate

Percentage of the population below the extreme poverty line Age

Mean

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SLIDE 63

CÁTEDRA

Instituto Ayrton Senna

Discrimination

9

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SLIDE 64

CÁTEDRA

Instituto Ayrton Senna

  • 9. Discrimination

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% 60% 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Evolution of the percentage of blacks 30 to 34 years old

Total University

26 p.p 19 p.p 26 p.p

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SLIDE 65

CÁTEDRA

Instituto Ayrton Senna

  • 9. Discrimination

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% 60% 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Evolution of the percentage of blacks 30 to 34 years old

Total University Graduate

26 p.p 19 p.p 26 p.p 4 p.p 14 p.p

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SLIDE 66

CÁTEDRA

Instituto Ayrton Senna

  • 9. Discrimination

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

porcentagem da população negra no grupo

Evolução da Representatividade da População Negra na População Total e entre os Dentistas

35 p.p. 38 p.p.

População Total Dentistas

Evolution of the percentage of blacks

Total population Dentist

Percentage of blacks

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SLIDE 67

CÁTEDRA

Instituto Ayrton Senna

CÁTEDRA

Instituto Ayrton Senna

www.insper.edu.br/catedras/instituto-ayrton-senna/

CÁTEDRA

Instituto Ayrton Senna

Núcleo Ciência para Educação