SUPPLEMENT Lockdown, Loosening, and Asias June 2020 Growth - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
SUPPLEMENT Lockdown, Loosening, and Asias June 2020 Growth Prospects Abdul Abiad Director, Macroeconomic Research, ADB 1 Ou Outline of f Disc scussi ssion Overview of forces now reshaping Asian economies The outlook for the
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Si Since Ap April, total COVID ID-19 19 cas ases worldw dwide de hav have risen n fr from less than han a a million n to over 13 13 million n by 15 15 Jul July, wi with devel eloping Asia accounting for r 14.4% of the e total
COVID-19 cases worldwide, new cases daily
Sources: CEIC Data Company; World Health Organization (accessed 16 July 2020).
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COVID-19 cases worldwide, cumulative
COVID-19 cases by subregion, cumulative
Do Domesti tic outb tbreaks have ve occurred in more economies in th the region, with th 22 of th the ADB DB’s 46 developing members recording more than 1,000 cases each
COVID-19 cases by subregion, new cases daily
Sources: CEIC Data Company; World Health Organization (accessed 16 July 2020).
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COVID-19 Government Response Stringency Index
Note: The Government Response Stringency index is a composite measure
and travel bans, rescaled to a value from 0 to 100, with 100 being the strictest response Source: University of Oxford.
5 HKG MON ROK TAP GEO KAZ KGZ AFG BAN IND NEP PAK SRI INO LAO MAL MYA PHI SIN THA VIE
10 20 30 20 40 60 80 100 Average stringency index
East Asia Central Asia South Asia Southeast Asia The Pacific Linear (Trend line)
Average mobility outside residence, percentage change from the baseline PNG FIJ CAM TAJ
AFG = Afghanistan, BAN = Bangladesh, CAM = Cambodia, FIJ = Fiji, GEO = Georgia, HKG = Hong Kong, China, IND = India, INO = Indonesia, KAZ = Kazakhstan, KYR = Kyrgyz Republic, LAO = Lao People’s Democratic Republic, MAL = Malaysia, MON = Mongolia, MYA = Myanmar, NEP = Nepal, PAK = Pakistan, PNG = Papua New Guinea, PHI = Philippines, ROK = Republic of Korea, SIN = Singapore, SRI = Sri Lanka, TAJ = Tajikistan, TAP = Taipei,China, THA = Thailand, VIE = Viet Nam. Sources: ADB estimates using data from University of Oxford. Our World in Data. https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/covid-stringency-index; Google. Community Mobility Reports. https://www.google.com/covid19/mobility/.
Stringency and mobility in developing Asia
Q1 2020 stringency, mobility, and Q1 GDP growth declines
AUT = Austria, BEL = Belgium, BGR = Bulgaria, CAN = Canda, CHL = Chile, CHN=People’s Republic of China, COL = Columbia, CYP = Cyprus, DEU = Germany, DNK = Denmark, ESP = Spain, EST = Estonia, FIN = Finland, FRA = France, GBR = United Kingdom, GEO = Georgia, HKG = Hong Kong, China, HUN = Hungary, IDN = Indonesia, ISR = Israel, ITA = Italy, JPN = Japan, KOR = Republic of Korea, LTU = Lithuania, LTV = Latvia, MAR = Morocco, MEX = Mexico, MNG = Mongolia, MYS = Malaysia, NGA = Nigeria, NLD = Netherlands, NOR = Norway, PER = Peru, PHL = Philippines, POL = Poland, ROU = Romania, RUS = Russia, SGP = Singapore, SVK = Slovakia, SWE = Sweden, THA = Thailand, TWN = Taipei,China, UKR = Ukraine, USA = Unites States, VNM = Viet Nam. Source: Abiad et al., 2020, “The impact of COVID-19 on developing Asian economies: The role of outbreak severity, containment stringency, and mobility declines,” in COVID-19 in Developing Economies, CEPR e-book.
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Regression of Consumption and Investment Revisions on Stringency, Mobility, and Outbreak Severity
Robust standard errors in parentheses. Collinearity between average stringency and average mobility (correlation -0.82) results in both variables becoming insignificant if included simultaneously, as in columns 6 and 12. *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1 Source: Abiad et al., 2020, “The impact of COVID-19 on developing Asian economies: The role of outbreak severity, containment stringency, and mobility declines,” in COVID-19 in Developing Economies, CEPR e-book.
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(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12) VARIABLES Average stringency
(0.0255) (0.0204) (0.0271) (0.0330) (0.0281) (0.0604) Average mobility 0.0558** 0.0530** 0.0387 0.111*** 0.107*** 0.0896 (0.0258) (0.0208) (0.0308) (0.0364) (0.0287) (0.0632) Log cases per million
(0.231) (0.186) (0.169) (0.165) (0.426) (0.329) (0.322) (0.327) Constant
0.285
0.0449
4.300
0.392 (1.783) (0.892) (1.535) (1.689) (1.191) (1.424) (2.530) (1.490) (2.721) (2.765) (2.290) (2.832) Observations 36 34 37 36 34 33 36 34 37 36 34 33 R-squared 0.192 0.181 0.189 0.349 0.430 0.455 0.226 0.226 0.196 0.384 0.410 0.411 Revisions to 2020 Consumption growth forecast Revisions to 2020 Investment growth forecast
Baseline assumptions on the international economy 2019 2020 2021 ADO ADOS ADO ADOS GDP growth (%) Major advanced economies 1.7
1.8 4.1 p United States 2.3 0.4
2.1 3.8 p Euro area 1.2
1.6 5.5 p Japan 0.7
0.9 2.0 p Brent crude spot prices (average, $ per barrel) 64.03 35.00 35.00 55.00 45.00 q Major advanced economies are set to contract after already slowing in 2019.
p = upgraded forecast, q = downgraded forecast, no sign = unchanged.
Sources: Bloomberg, Haver Analytics, ADB estimates. 8
Decline in tourist arrivals, selected developing Asian economies
Fo For the 24 economies with tourist arrivals data available for Ap April, th the year-on
year decline in arrivals ranges from 87% to 100% 100%.
Note: April data for Cook Islands is a mirror data of arrivals from AUS/NZL. Sources: CEIC Data Company; IMF Tourism Tracker; and country official sources.
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Travel plans after bans are lifted
22% 45% 23% 7% 3% 14% 47% 28% 8% 4% 12% 33% 36% 14% 5% 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
Not wait at all Wait a month or two Wait six months or so Wait a year or so Not travel for the foreseeable future February Survey April Survey June Survey
Source: IATA
55% 55% o
respo ponde ndents s sai aid t d that hat e even af n after t trav avel r restrictions ns ar are lift lifted, they would ld wait it six ix months to a year r or r more re before re tr travel eling—or
20 40 Jan 2019 Apr Jul Oct Jan 2020 Apr Jun
% change year on year
Sri Lanka Thailand Indonesia Taipei,China Nepal Viet Nam
Hong Kong, China Georgia India Singapore Maldives
COVID-19’s impact on international tourism receipts in developing Asia, % of GDP
Source: Abiad et al., forthcoming.
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AFG = Afghanistan, ARM = Armenia, AZE = Azerbaijan, BAN = Bangladesh, BHU = Bhutan, BRU = Brunei Darussalam, CAM = Cambodia, COO = Cook Islands, FSM = Federated States of Micronesia, FIJ = Fiji, GEO Georgia, HKG = Hong Kong, China, IND = India, INO = Indonesia, KAZ = Kazakhstan, KIR = Kiribati, KYR = Kyrgyz Republic, LAO = Lao People’s Dem. Rep., MAL = Malaysia, MLD = Maldives, MAR = Marshall Islands, MON = Mongolia, MYA = Myanmar, NAU = Nauru, NEP = Nepal, PAK = Pakistan, PAL = Palau, PNG = Papua New Guinea, PRC = People’s Republic of China, PHI = Philippines, KOR = Republic of Korea, SAM = Samoa, SIN = Singapore, SOL = Solomon Islands, SRI = Sri Lanka, TAP = Taipei,China, TAJ = Tajikistan, THA = Thailand, TIM = Timor-Leste, TON = Tonga, TUV = Tuvalu, UZB = Uzbekistan, VAN = Vanuatu, and VIE = Viet Nam.
MLD COO PAL VAN NIU FIJ SAM GEO CAM THA HKG TON ARM RMI FSM SOL SRI MAL AZE KYR SIN BHU TAP LAO VIE MON TIM TUV PHI KIR UZB NEP MYA TAJ INO KAZ BRU NAU KOR IND PAK AFG PRC BAN PNG % of GDP
Shorter containment Longer containment
Calculated global spillovers (%of GDP) and exports to GDP under shorter and longer containment scenarios
BGD=Bangladesh, BTN=Bhutan, BRN=Brunei Darussalam, KHM=Cambodia, CHN=China, FJI=Fiji, HKG=Hong Kong, China, IND=India, IDN=Indonesia, KAZ=Kazakhstan, KOR=Republic of Korea, KGZ=Kyrgyz Republic, LAO=Lao PDR, MYS=Malaysia, MDV=Maldives, MNG=Mongolia, NPL=Nepal, PAK=Pakistan, PHL=Philippines, SGP=Singapore, LKA=Sri Lanka, TWN= Taipei,China, THA=Thailand , VNM= Viet Nam Source: Abiad et al., 2020, “The impact of COVID-19 on developing Asian economies: The role of outbreak severity, containment stringency, and mobility declines,” in COVID-19 in Developing Economies, CEPR e-book.
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COVID-19’s impact on developing Asia GDP (relative to no-COVID baseline), under shorter-containment scenario
Source: : Abiad et al., forthcoming.
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Note: Domestic demand declines are assumed only for economies with significant outbreaks (more than 1,000 cases). Does not account for any policy responses. AFG = Afghanistan, ARM = Armenia, AZE = Azerbaijan, BAN = Bangladesh, BHU = Bhutan, BRU = Brunei Darussalam, CAM = Cambodia, COO = Cook Islands, FSM = Federated States of Micronesia, FIJ = Fiji, GEO Georgia, HKG = Hong Kong, China, IND = India, INO = Indonesia, KAZ = Kazakhstan, KIR = Kiribati, KYR = Kyrgyz Republic, LAO = Lao People’s Dem. Rep., MAL = Malaysia, MLD = Maldives, MAR = Marshall Islands, MON = Mongolia, MYA = Myanmar, NAU = Nauru, NEP = Nepal, PAK = Pakistan, PAL = Palau, PNG = Papua New Guinea, PRC = People’s Republic of China, PHI = Philippines, KOR = Republic of Korea, SAM = Samoa, SIN = Singapore, SOL = Solomon Islands, SRI = Sri Lanka, TAP = Taipei,China, TAJ = Tajikistan, THA = Thailand, TIM = Timor-Leste, TON = Tonga, TUV = Tuvalu, UZB = Uzbekistan, VAN = Vanuatu, and VIE = Viet Nam.
ARM AZE GEO KAZ KGZ TAJ TKM UZB PRC HKG ROK MON TAP BRU CAM INO LAO MAL MYA PHI SIN THA TIM VIE AFG BAN BHU IND MLD NEP PAK SRI COO FIJ FSM KIR RMI NAU PAL PNG SOL TOM TUV VAN SAM
% impact on GDP, relative to no-COVID baseline
Global Spillovers (excluding tourism) International tourism demand decline Domestic demand decline
Central East Southeast South Pacific
COVID-19’s sectoral impact on developing Asian economies, under shorter-containment scenario
Source: : Abiad et al., forthcoming.
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Note: Sectoral impacts are available only for 24 developing Asian economies covered by the ADB Multi-Region Inout-Outout Tables (MRIOT) BAN = Bangladesh, BHU = Bhutan, BRU = Brunei Darussalam, CAM = Cambodia,, FIJ = Fiji, HKG = Hong Kong, China, IND = India, INO = Indonesia, KAZ = Kazakhstan,, KYR = Kyrgyz Republic, LAO = Lao People’s Dem. Rep., MAL = Malaysia, MLD = Maldives, MON = Mongolia, NEP = Nepal, PAK = Pakistan, PRC = People’s Republic of China, PHI = Philippines, KOR = Republic of Korea, SIN = Singapore, SRI = Sri Lanka, TAP = Taipei,China, THA = Thailand, and VIE = Viet Nam.
0.0 KAZ KYR PRC HKG KOR MON TAP BRU CAM LAO INO MAL PHI SIN THA VIE BAN BHU IND MLD NEP PAK SRI FIJ
Agriculture, Mining and Quarrying Business, Trade, Personal, and Public Services Light/Heavy Manufacturing, Utilities, and Construction Hotel and restaurants and Other Personal Services Transport services
Central East Southeast South Pacific
Estimated global and regional losses due to COVID-19 (relative to a no-COVID baseline)
Source: Abiad et al., 2020, “The impact of COVID-19 on developing Asian economies: The role of outbreak severity, containment stringency, and mobility declines,” in COVID-19 in Developing Economies, CEPR e-book.
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Shorter- containment Longer- containment Shorter- containment Longer- containment World
Developing Asia
Central Asia
East Asia
Southeast Asia
South Asia
The Pacific
United States
Europe
Rest of the world
GDP (%) GDP ($ billion)
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GDP=gross domestic product Note: Data as of 29 June 2020. Source: ADB COVID-19 Policy Database.
4 8 12 16 Central and West Asia East Asia South Asia Southeast Asia The Pacific % of subregional GDP Functioning money markets Credit creation Lending to nonfinancial sector Equity claims on the private sector Direct support to income International assistance (lender/donor) No breakdown 6.0 15.2 10.8 11.5 7.1
GDP growth outlook in developing Asia
%
6.1 6.1 6.2 5.9 5.1 0.1 6.2 6.7 6.6 6.6 6.4 5.6 0.4 6.6 2.2 6.2 2.4 6.7 0.0 1.5 3.0 4.5 6.0 7.5 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Developing Asia Developing Asia excluding NIEs
ADOS ADO 2020 ADOS ADO Forecast
While GDP growth rates will recover in 2021, it will not be enough to fully offset the sharp drop in 2020…
Source: Asian Development Outlook database.
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…and GDP levels will be below what they would have been without COVID, in 2021 and possibly beyond.
100 110 120 130 140 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
GDP levels, 2015=100
Developing Asia recovery path
Note: Bubble size indicates the value of 2019 nominal GDP. Source: Asian Development Outlook database.
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HKG MON PRC KOR TAP AFG BAN BHU IND MLD NEP PAK SRI ARM AZE GEO KAZ KGZ TAJ TKM UZB BRU CAM INO LAO MAL MYA PHI SIN THA TIM VIE COO FSM FIJ KIR RMI NAU PAL PNG SAM SOL TON TUV VAN
4 2020 GDP growth forecast in this Supplement, % East Asia South Asia Central Asia Southeast Asia The Pacific Change from 2020 GDP growth forecast in ADOS Dec 2019, percentage points
p = upgraded forecast, q = downgraded forecast, no sign = unchanged.
Source: Asian Development Outlook database.
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2020 2021 2020 2021 ADO ADOS ADO ADOS ADO ADOS ADO ADOS East Asia 2.0 1.3 q 6.5 6.8 p South Asia 4.1
6.0 4.9 q Hong Kong, China
3.5 5.1 p Bangladesh 7.8 4.5 q 8.0 7.5 q People’s Rep. of China 2.3 1.8 q 7.3 7.4 p India 4.0
6.2 5.0 q Republic of Korea 1.3
2.3 3.5 p Pakistan 2.6
3.2 2.0 q Taipei,China 1.8 0.8 q 2.5 3.5 p Central Asia 2.8
4.2 4.2 Southeast Asia 1.0
4.7 5.2 p Azerbaijan 0.5
1.5 1.2 q Indonesia 2.5
5.0 5.3 p Kazakhstan 1.8
3.6 3.4 q Malaysia 0.5
5.5 6.5 p Philippines 2.0
6.5 6.5 The Pacific
2.7 1.6 q Singapore 0.2
2.0 3.2 p Fiji
3.0
Thailand
2.5 3.5 p Papua New Guinea 0.8
2.8 2.9 p Viet Nam 4.8 4.1 q 6.8 6.8
Developing Asia 2.2 0.1 q 6.2 6.2 Excluding NIEs 2.4 0.4 q 6.7 6.6 q
Exchange rate movement in the PRC and Southeast Asia
Ex Exchange e rates es have ve not dep eprec eciated ed by much…
Source: Bloomberg (accessed 15 July 2020).
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Portfolio flows to Emerging Asia
Notes: 7-day and 28-day moving average of the total portfolio flows. Total portfolio flows is the sum of emerging Asia debt, emerging Asia equity and Malaysia portfolio. Emerging Asia debt data includes Indonesia, India and Thailand. Emerging Asia equity includes PRC, Indonesia, India, Republic of Korea, Thailand, Philippines, Viet Nam, Taipei,China, Sri Lanka, Pakistan. Source: Institute of International Finance (www.IIF.com).
…a …and portf tfolio flows to th the region have stabilized.
85 95 105 115 125 1 / 1 / 2 2 1 / 1 5 / 2 2 1 / 2 9 / 2 2 2 / 1 2 / 2 2 2 / 2 6 / 2 2 3 / 1 1 / 2 2 3 / 2 5 / 2 2 4 / 8 / 2 2 4 / 2 2 / 2 2 5 / 6 / 2 2 5 / 2 / 2 2 6 / 3 / 2 2 6 / 1 7 / 2 2 7 / 1 / 2 2 7 / 1 5 / 2 2
1 Jan 2020 = 100
Indonesia Malaysia Philippines PRC Singapore Thailand Viet Nam
2 1 / 1 / 2 2 1 / 1 3 / 2 2 1 / 2 5 / 2 2 2 / 6 / 2 2 2 / 1 8 / 2 2 3 / 1 / 2 2 3 / 1 3 / 2 2 3 / 2 5 / 2 2 4 / 6 / 2 2 4 / 1 8 / 2 2 4 / 3 / 2 2 5 / 1 2 / 2 2 5 / 2 4 / 2 2 6 / 5 / 2 2 6 / 1 7 / 2 2 6 / 2 9 / 2 2 7 / 1 1 / 2 2
$ billion
7-day moving average 28-day moving average
Equity market indexes in the PRC and Southeast Asia
Ma Many equ equities es h have r e rec ecover ered ed w wel ell f from t thei eir l lows…
Notes: JCI = Jakarta Stock Exchange Composite Index; KLCI = Kuala Lumpur Composite Index; PSEi = Philippine Stock Exchange Index; SET = Stock Exchange of Thailand Index; SHCOMP = Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index; STI = Singapore Strait Times Index; and VNINDEX = Vietnam Ho Chi Minh Stock Index. Source: Bloomberg (accessed 15 July 2020).
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JP Morgan EMBI stripped spreads in the PRC and Southeast Asia
Notes: IND=India; INO=Indonesia; PHI=Philippines; PRC=People’s Republic of China; MAL=Malaysia; VIE=Viet Nam. The stripped spread is the yield on sovereign dollar-denominated bonds relative to comparable US Treasuries, and stripped
Source: Bloomberg (accessed 15 July 2020).
…a …and bond spreads in th the region have narrowed since Ma March.
50 75 100 125 1 / 1 / 2 2 1 / 1 5 / 2 2 1 / 2 9 / 2 2 2 / 1 2 / 2 2 2 / 2 6 / 2 2 3 / 1 1 / 2 2 3 / 2 5 / 2 2 4 / 8 / 2 2 4 / 2 2 / 2 2 5 / 6 / 2 2 5 / 2 / 2 2 6 / 3 / 2 2 6 / 1 7 / 2 2 7 / 1 / 2 2 7 / 1 5 / 2 2
1 Jan 2020 = 100
JCI KLCI PSEi SHCOMP SET STI VNINDEX 100 200 300 400 500 1 / 1 / 2 2 1 / 1 5 / 2 2 1 / 2 9 / 2 2 2 / 1 2 / 2 2 2 / 2 6 / 2 2 3 / 1 1 / 2 2 3 / 2 5 / 2 2 4 / 8 / 2 2 4 / 2 2 / 2 2 5 / 6 / 2 2 5 / 2 / 2 2 6 / 3 / 2 2 6 / 1 7 / 2 2 7 / 1 / 2 2 7 / 1 5 / 2 2
basis points
IND INO PHI PRC MAL VIE
Source: CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis' World Trade Monitor 21
Developing Asia's Trade, 2000-2020
Changes in GVC Participation Ratios over Time, 2000-2018
Lao PDR=Lao People's Democratic Republic, PRC=People's Republic of China Source: ADB estimates; and Asian Development Bank Multiregional Input-Output Tables 2000 and 2018
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0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 T a i p e i , C h i n a V i e t N a m F i j i B h u t a n M
g
i a R e p u b l i c
K
e a J a p a n C a m b
i a H
g K
g , C h i n a M a l d i v e s B r u n e i D a r u s s a l a m L a
D R S i n g a p
e B a n g l a d e s h I n d i a T h a i l a n d P h i l i p p i n e s P a k i s t a n P R C K y r g y z R e p u b l i c N e p a l I n d
e s i a S r i L a n k a K a z a k h s t a n M a l a y s i a Changes in Particpation Ratio Backward Participation Forward Participation Total Participation
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Source: Asian Development Outlook database; World Economic Outlook database, April 2020. 4.8 2.5 3.0 4.3 5.4 4.9 5.5 5.6 3.0
5.4 4.3 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.9 3.6 2.9
5.4
2 4 6 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Percentage points Developing Asia United States Euro area Japan Latin America and the Caribbean Middle East and North Africa Sub-Saharan Africa Rest of the world
Contributions to global growth
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305% ($187 tn) 322% ($255 tn) 387% ($158 tn) 383% ($184 tn) 168% ($28 tn) 220% ($71 tn) 198% ($18 tn) 265% ($57 tn) 100 200 300 400 500 2009 2019 2009 2019 2009 2019 2009 2019 World Advanced economies Emerging market economies Developing Asia Household debt Nonfinancial corporates Financial corporates Government
GDP=gross domestic product; tn = trillion Notes: Percentages refer to totals across sectors by economy grouping, which is based on Institute of International Finance definitions. Developing Asia is a subset of Emerging market economies and is comprised of Hong Kong, China; India; Indonesia; Republic of Korea; Malaysia; Pakistan; People’s Republic of China; Philippines; Singapore; and
Source: Institute of International Finance Global Debt Database (accessed 12 June 2020).
26 GDP=gross domestic product; HKG=Hong Kong, China; IND=India; INO=Indonesia; KOR=Republic of Korea; MAL=Malaysia; PAK=Pakistan; PHI=Philippines; PRC=People’s Republic of China; SIN=Singapore; THA=Thailand; tn = trillion Notes: Percentages refer to totals across sectors. Numbers in parentheses refer to total debt levels. Source: Institute of International Finance Global Debt Database (accessed 12 June 2020).
370% ($0.8 tn) 519% ($1.9 tn) 137% ($1.8 tn) 129% ($3.6 tn) 65% ($0.4 tn) 79% ($0.9 tn) 276% ($2.9 tn) 330% ($5.2 tn) 202% ($0.4 tn) 221% ($0.8 tn) 65% ($0.1 tn) 94% ($0.3 tn) 93% ($0.2 tn) 99% ($0.4 tn) 209% ($10.6 tn) 300% ($41.5 tn) 428% ($0.9 tn) 480% ($1.8 tn) 162% ($0.5 tn) 188% ($1.0 tn) 100 200 300 400 500 600 2009 2019 2009 2019 2009 2019 2009 2019 2009 2019 2009 2019 2009 2019 2009 2019 2009 2019 2009 2019 HKG IND INO KOR MAL PAK PHI PRC SIN THA
Household debt Nonfinancial corporates Financial corporates Government
27 Notes: Projections are from Baseline Scenario. Comprises a panel of 40 ADB DMCs. Source: ADB calculations using Asia Debt Monitor (ADM) Database based on World Economic Outlook (WEO) October 2019, WEO April 2020 and Asian Development Outlook (ADO) Supplement – June 2020.
0% 25% 50% 75% 100% 125% 150%
0% 10% 20% 30% Public Debt (% of GDP) Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) 2019 2021
Public Debt and Fiscal Balance
2019: 2 DMCs 2021: 1 DMCs 2019: 12 DMCs 2021: 17 DMCs 2019: 17 DMCs 2021: 20 DMCs 2019: 9 DMCs 2021: 2 DMCs