Summary Paul Rago and Colleagues Northeast Fisheries Population - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Summary Paul Rago and Colleagues Northeast Fisheries Population - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Groundfish Operational Assessments 2015 Summary Paul Rago and Colleagues Northeast Fisheries Population Dynamics Branch Science Center New England Fishery Management Council Plymouth, MA September 30, 2015

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SLIDE 1

Groundfish Operational Assessments 2015— Summary

Paul Rago and Colleagues Population Dynamics Branch New England Fishery Management Council Plymouth, MA September 30, 2015

Northeast Fisheries Science Center

http://www.nefsc.noaa.gov/groundfish/operational-assessments-2015/

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SLIDE 2

Objectives for Today’s Presentation

Describe the Operational Assessment Process Summarize Key Findings of the 20 groundfish assessments Next steps

U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 2

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SLIDE 3

Operational Assessment Timeline Species Stock Northeast Regional Coordi- nating Council meeting

Industry Outreach meetings July 22, 2015 Assess- ment Oversight Panel meeting July 27, 2015 Conduct Assess- ments August- September Peer Review Meeting

  • Sep. 14-18

Final report to the NEFMC: PDT SSC October 2015

U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 3

http://www.nefsc.noaa.gov/groundfish/operational-assessments-2015/

You are here

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SLIDE 4

Generic Terms of Reference—few changes allowed

  • Update the data
  • Run the models to estimate stock size and

fishing mortality

  • Update the values of Biological Reference

Points

  • Determine Stock Status
  • Estimate Overfishing Limit
  • Sources of Uncertainty and Research Needs
  • Plan B if model fails.
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SLIDE 5

Stock Assessment Models

VPA

  • Georges Bank winter flounder
  • Georges Bank haddock
  • Plaice
  • Witch flounder
  • Cape Cod-Gulf of Maine

yellowtail flounder

ASAP

  • Gulf of Maine cod (M=0.2)
  • Gulf of Maine cod (Mramp)
  • Southern New England-Mid

Atlantic winter flounder

  • Gulf of Maine haddock
  • White hake
  • Pollock
  • Redfish
  • Southern New England-Mid

Atlantic yellowtail flounder

OTHER

  • GB cod
  • Wolfish
  • N & S Windowpanes
  • GB yellowtail
  • GOM winter
  • Ocean Pout
  • Halibut
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SLIDE 6

9/30/2015

http://www.nefsc.noaa.gov/groundfish/operational-assessments-2015/agenda.html

  • Data Portal
  • Background
  • Working

Papers

  • Presentations

Data Portal Output

Search Criteria Assessment Year Species Stock Information Type

OUTPUTS

Zip File=Everything Assessment Report Figures Tables Model info: inputs,

  • utputs, diagnostics

Maps—Survey Maps –Commercial Background Reports

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SLIDE 7

External Peer Reviewers

  • Steven Cadrin (Chair)—SMAST
  • Jeans-Jacque Maguire—consultant
  • Gary Nelson, MADMF.
  • Jim Berkson—NOAA-Sea Grant
  • Other Key Participants
  • Jamie Cournane—NEFMC (at review table)
  • Doug Butterworth—Industry
  • Large audience in Woods Hole and on Webinar

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SLIDE 8

Reviewer’s Reports on Each Stock

  • Acceptability (or not) of assessment as

scientific basis for management advice.

  • Recommendation of alternative basis for

catch if assessment is not accepted.

  • Key sources of uncertainty
  • Research needs

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SLIDE 9

Reviewers Findings (1)

  • 18 of 20 stock assessments were judged as an

acceptable scientific basis for management advice

  • Two assessments were not accepted due to poor

diagnostics and Plan B was implemented

  • Georges Bank cod
  • Implemented method for adjusting recent average

catch based on recent survey trends.

  • Atlantic halibut
  • Suggested slight increase in catch based on

increased spatial incidence of discards

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SLIDE 10

Reviewers Findings (2)

  • Stock status did not change for 15 of the 20

stocks, worsened for two stocks, improved for

  • ne stock, and became more uncertain for two

stocks

  • Overfishing Limits (OFL) recommended for

each stock

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SLIDE 11

The Status Score Card

Overfished and Overfishing (5) GOM Cod Cape Cod/GOM yellowtail SNE Yellowtail (worse) GB Winter (worse) Witch Not Overfished and Overfishing (0) Overfished but No Overfishing (4) SNE winter Wolffish Northern Windowpane Ocean Pout Not Overfished and No Overfishing (7) GB haddock GOM haddock Plaice Redfish White Hake Pollock Southern Windowpane Overfished but Overfishing UNKNOWN (1) GB cod Overfishing but Overfished UNKNOWN (1) GM winter

UNKNOWN Status (2) (low abundance)

Atlantic halibut GB yellowtail

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SLIDE 12

But the scorecard alone is insufficient

  • Magnitude of depletion of stocks has

increased considerably for some stocks: SNE yellowtail flounder, witch flounder, CC/GOM yellowtail

  • Several stocks are above BMSY{GB haddock,

GOM haddock, Pollock, Redfish)

  • Number of stocks using a retrospective

adjustment has increased from 2 to 7.

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SLIDE 13

Retrospective Adjustment applied to 7 of 14 Age or Size-Based Assessments

  • Retrospective Pattern—a consistent pattern of over or

under estimating terminal year biomass and fishing mortality due to an unknown change in landings, discards, natural mortality or survey catchability in the most recent years.

  • Seven stocks {GB haddock, CC/GOM yellowtail, GB

winter, redfish, plaice, witch, pollock}

  • For these stocks the 2014 SSB estimate was adjusted

downward by 24% on average (Range -49% to -20%)

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SLIDE 14

The Green Stocks

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Stock

Last Assessment Status Change Since Last Assessment Overfishing Occurring? Overfished ?

Georges Bank Haddock

2012 Same No No

Gulf of Maine Haddock

2014 Same No No

American Plaice

2012 Same No No

Acadian Redfish

2012 Same No No

White Hake

2013 Same No No

Pollock

2014 Same No No

Southern New England/Mid- Atlantic Windowpane

2012 Same No No

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SLIDE 15

The Green and Red Stocks

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9/30/2015

Stock

Last Assessment Status Change Since Last Assessment Overfishing Occurring? Overfished ?

Gulf of Maine Winter Flounder

2014 Same No Unknown

Southern New England/ Mid- Atlantic Winter Flounder

2011 Same No Yes

Wolffish

2012 Same No Yes

Gulf of Maine/Georges Bank Windowpane

2012 Better No Yes

Ocean Pout

2012 Same No Yes

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SLIDE 16

The Red and Unknown Stocks

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9/30/2015

Stock

Last Assessment Status Change Since Last Assessment Overfishing Occurring? Overfished ?

Gulf of Maine Cod

2014 Same Yes Yes

Cape Cod/Gulf of Maine Yellowtail Flounder

2012 Same Yes Yes

Southern New England/Mid- Atlantic Yellowtail Flounder

2012 Worse Yes Yes

Georges Bank Winter Flounder

2014 Worse Yes Yes

Witch Flounder

2012 Same Yes Yes

Georges Bank Yellowtail Flounder

2014 Same Unknown Unknown

Georges Bank Cod

2012 More uncertain Unknown Yes

Atlantic Halibut

2012 More uncertain Unknown Yes

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SLIDE 17

Common Research Recommendations

  • Benchmark Considerations
  • Georges Bank Cod
  • Halibut
  • Witch
  • Longer term, Synoptic Projects
  • Review stock structure {cod, halibut}
  • Causes of Low Productivity (especially growth and

recruitment)

  • Address Retrospective Problem—Remedies not

Causes

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SLIDE 18

Keeping up with a Changing Environment

  • Stock assessment models incorporate the primary

consequences of changes in the environment

  • Growth
  • Maturity
  • Recruitment
  • Irrespective of the underlying cause, the updated

information is immediately relevant to management

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9/30/2015

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SLIDE 19

Changes in Average Weights at Age:

Georges Bank Haddock, 1935-2014

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Courtesy L. Brooks Age 9+ Age 4 Age 1 Age 8 Age 5

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SLIDE 20

Changes in Average Weights at Age:

Witch Flounder, 1985-2014

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Courtesy S. Wigley Age 3 Age 6 Age 8 Age 10

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SLIDE 21

Changes in Total Biomass (mt) at Maximum Sustainable Yield Proxy: 2005, 2008, 2015 for 8 stocks: {GOM cod, GB haddock, GOM yellowtail, GB

winter, SNE yellowtail, Plaice, Witch, Redfish, white hake}

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759950 667713 525496 100000 200000 300000 400000 500000 600000 700000 800000 2005 GARM II 2008 GARM III 2015 Updates

  • 12%
  • 21%
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SLIDE 22

Spawning Stock Biomass since 1985: 13 Stocks

100000 200000 300000 400000 500000 600000 700000 800000 900000 1000000

Spawning Stock Biomass (mt)

Year

SNE yellowtail CC GM yellowtail Witch SNE Winter GB winter White hake Pollock GOM haddock GB haddock GOM cod GB cod Plaice Redfish

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SLIDE 23

Differing Trends:

Haddock, Redfish, Pollock, W Hake vs Cod and Flatfish

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20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 700,000 800,000 900,000 1,000,000 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Cod +Flatfish SSB (mt) Haddock, Redfish, Pollock ,W Hake SSB (mt)

YEAR

Pollock, Haddock, Redfish Cod + flatfish

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SLIDE 24

Next Steps

  • PDT analyses now underway
  • SSC to review OFLs and set ABCs October 13-14
  • Consideration by Council committees
  • Northeast Regional Coordinating Council (NRCC)

Nov 17-18.

  • Review at December 1-3 Meeting of Council

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SLIDE 25

Questions?

9/30/2015

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