Summary Paul Rago and Colleagues Northeast Fisheries Population - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Groundfish Operational Assessments 2015 — Summary Paul Rago and Colleagues Northeast Fisheries Population Dynamics Branch Science Center New England Fishery Management Council Plymouth, MA September 30, 2015 http://www.nefsc.noaa.gov/groundfish/operational-assessments-2015/

Objectives for Today’s Presentation Describe the Operational Assessment Process Summarize Key Findings of the 20 groundfish assessments Next steps U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 2

Operational Assessment Timeline You are here Final Assess- report to Northeast ment Conduct the Industry Peer Regional Oversight Assess- NEFMC : Outreach Review Coordi- Panel ments meetings Meeting nating PDT meeting July 22, August- Council Sep. 14-18 2015 SSC July 27, September meeting October 2015 2015 Species Stock http://www.nefsc.noaa.gov/groundfish/operational-assessments-2015/ U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 3

Generic Terms of Reference — few changes allowed • Update the data • Run the models to estimate stock size and fishing mortality • Update the values of Biological Reference Points • Determine Stock Status • Estimate Overfishing Limit • Sources of Uncertainty and Research Needs • Plan B if model fails.

Stock Assessment Models ASAP VPA • Gulf of Maine cod (M=0.2) • Georges Bank winter flounder • Gulf of Maine cod (Mramp) • Georges Bank haddock • Southern New England-Mid • Plaice Atlantic winter flounder • Witch flounder • Gulf of Maine haddock • Cape Cod-Gulf of Maine yellowtail flounder • White hake • Pollock OTHER • Redfish • GB cod • Southern New England-Mid • Wolfish Atlantic yellowtail flounder • N & S Windowpanes • GB yellowtail • GOM winter • Ocean Pout • Halibut

http://www.nefsc.noaa.gov/groundfish/operational-assessments-2015/agenda.html Data Portal Output Search Criteria Assessment Year Species Stock • Data Portal Information Type • Background OUTPUTS Zip File=Everything • Working Assessment Report Figures Papers Tables Model info: inputs, • Presentations outputs, diagnostics Maps — Survey Maps – Commercial 9/30/2015 Background Reports

External Peer Reviewers • Steven Cadrin (Chair) — SMAST • Jeans-Jacque Maguire — consultant • Gary Nelson, MADMF. • Jim Berkson — NOAA-Sea Grant • Other Key Participants • Jamie Cournane — NEFMC (at review table) • Doug Butterworth — Industry • Large audience in Woods Hole and on Webinar 7

Reviewer’s Reports on Each Stock • Acceptability (or not) of assessment as scientific basis for management advice. • Recommendation of alternative basis for catch if assessment is not accepted. • Key sources of uncertainty • Research needs 8

Reviewers Findings (1) • 18 of 20 stock assessments were judged as an acceptable scientific basis for management advice • Two assessments were not accepted due to poor diagnostics and Plan B was implemented • Georges Bank cod • Implemented method for adjusting recent average catch based on recent survey trends. • Atlantic halibut • Suggested slight increase in catch based on increased spatial incidence of discards 9

Reviewers Findings (2) • Stock status did not change for 15 of the 20 stocks, worsened for two stocks, improved for one stock, and became more uncertain for two stocks • Overfishing Limits (OFL) recommended for each stock 10

The Status Score Card Overfished and Overfishing (5) Not Overfished and Overfishing (0) GOM Cod Cape Cod/GOM yellowtail SNE Yellowtail (worse) GB Winter (worse) Witch Overfished but No Overfishing (4) Not Overfished and No Overfishing (7) SNE winter GB haddock Wolffish GOM haddock Northern Windowpane Plaice Ocean Pout Redfish White Hake Pollock Southern Windowpane Overfished but Overfishing UNKNOWN (1) UNKNOWN Status (2) (low abundance) GB cod Atlantic halibut Overfishing but Overfished UNKNOWN (1) GB yellowtail GM winter

But the scorecard alone is insufficient • Magnitude of depletion of stocks has increased considerably for some stocks: SNE yellowtail flounder, witch flounder, CC/GOM yellowtail • Several stocks are above B MSY {GB haddock, GOM haddock, Pollock, Redfish) • Number of stocks using a retrospective adjustment has increased from 2 to 7. 12

Retrospective Adjustment applied to 7 of 14 Age or Size-Based Assessments • Retrospective Pattern — a consistent pattern of over or under estimating terminal year biomass and fishing mortality due to an unknown change in landings, discards, natural mortality or survey catchability in the most recent years. • Seven stocks {GB haddock, CC/GOM yellowtail, GB winter, redfish, plaice, witch, pollock} • For these stocks the 2014 SSB estimate was adjusted downward by 24% on average (Range -49% to -20%) 13

The Green Stocks Status Last Change Overfishing Overfished Stock Assessment Since Last Occurring? ? Assessment Georges Bank Haddock 2012 Same No No Gulf of Maine Haddock 2014 Same No No American Plaice 2012 Same No No Acadian Redfish 2012 Same No No White Hake 2013 Same No No Pollock 2014 Same No No Southern New England/Mid- Same No No Atlantic Windowpane 2012 14

The Green and Red Stocks Status Last Change Overfishing Overfished Stock Assessment Since Last Occurring? ? Assessment Gulf of Maine Winter Flounder 2014 Same No Unknown Southern New England/ Mid- Same No Yes Atlantic Winter Flounder 2011 Wolffish 2012 Same No Yes Gulf of Maine/Georges Bank Better No Yes Windowpane 2012 Ocean Pout 2012 Same No Yes 9/30/2015 15

The Red and Unknown Stocks Status Last Change Overfishing Overfished Stock Assessment Since Last Occurring? ? Assessment Gulf of Maine Cod 2014 Same Yes Yes Cape Cod/Gulf of Maine Yellowtail Same Yes Yes Flounder 2012 Southern New England/Mid- Yes Yes Atlantic Yellowtail Flounder 2012 Worse Georges Bank Winter Flounder 2014 Worse Yes Yes Witch Flounder 2012 Same Yes Yes Georges Bank Yellowtail Flounder 2014 Same Unknown Unknown More Yes Georges Bank Cod 2012 Unknown uncertain More Yes Atlantic Halibut 2012 uncertain Unknown 9/30/2015 16

Common Research Recommendations • Benchmark Considerations • Georges Bank Cod • Halibut • Witch • Longer term, Synoptic Projects • Review stock structure {cod, halibut} • Causes of Low Productivity (especially growth and recruitment) • Address Retrospective Problem — Remedies not Causes 17

Keeping up with a Changing Environment • Stock assessment models incorporate the primary consequences of changes in the environment • Growth • Maturity • Recruitment • Irrespective of the underlying cause, the updated information is immediately relevant to management 9/30/2015 18

Changes in Average Weights at Age: Age 9+ Georges Bank Age 8 Haddock, 1935-2014 Age 5 Age 4 Age 1 Courtesy L. Brooks 19

Changes in Average Weights at Age: Age 10 Witch Flounder, Age 8 1985-2014 Age 6 Age 3 Courtesy S. Wigley 20

Changes in Total Biomass (mt) at Maximum Sustainable Yield Proxy: 2005, 2008, 2015 for 8 stocks: { GOM cod, GB haddock, GOM yellowtail, GB winter, SNE yellowtail, Plaice, Witch, Redfish, white hake} -12% 759950 800000 -21% 667713 700000 600000 525496 500000 400000 300000 200000 100000 0 2005 GARM II 2008 GARM III 2015 Updates 21

Spawning Stock Biomass since 1985: 13 Stocks 1000000 900000 800000 SNE yellowtail CC GM yellowtail 700000 Witch Spawning Stock Biomass (mt) SNE Winter 600000 GB winter 500000 White hake Pollock 400000 GOM haddock GB haddock 300000 GOM cod GB cod 200000 Plaice 100000 Redfish 0 Year

Differing Trends: Haddock, Redfish, Pollock, W Hake vs Cod and Flatfish 1,000,000 160,000 Haddock, Redfish, Pollock ,W 900,000 Pollock, Haddock, Redfish 140,000 Cod +Flatfish SSB (mt) 800,000 Cod + flatfish Hake SSB (mt) 120,000 700,000 100,000 600,000 500,000 80,000 400,000 60,000 300,000 40,000 200,000 20,000 100,000 0 0 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 YEAR 23

Next Steps • PDT analyses now underway • SSC to review OFLs and set ABCs October 13-14 • Consideration by Council committees • Northeast Regional Coordinating Council (NRCC) Nov 17-18. • Review at December 1-3 Meeting of Council 24

Questions? 9/30/2015 25