? Striking Gold in Software Repositories An Econometric Study of - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Jun 22, 2023 344 likes •448 views

? Striking Gold in Software Repositories An Econometric Study of Cryptocurrencies on GitHub Asher Trockman , Rijnard van Tonder, Bogdan Vasilescu MSR 19, May 2627, Montral, QC, Canada Why do we think there is gold? Dabbish et al.

SLIDE 1

Striking Gold in Software Repositories

MSR ’19, May 26–27, Montréal, QC, Canada

Asher Trockman, Rijnard van Tonder, Bogdan Vasilescu

An Econometric Study of Cryptocurrencies on GitHub

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SLIDE 2

Why do we think there is “gold”? 2.) “Attractiveness” Influences Crypto Speculators 1.) Visible Signals on GitHub Influence Perceptions of Software Quality 3.) Informed? Speculators Drive Price

Dabbish et al. 2012, Trockman et al. 2018 Kristoufek 2013, 2015; Garcia et al. 2014

A c t i v i t y Popularity Quality Assurance Perceived Quality Crypto Attractiveness Price

ε ε

F e a t u r e s & P u b l i c i t y 1

SLIDE 3

0x Achain AdEx aelf Aeon Aeron Aeternity Agoras Tokens Agrello Aion ALIS Ambrosus Ark Asch Augur Bancor Basic Attention Token Bean Cash Bibox Token Binance Coin Bismuth BitClave Bitcoin Bitcoin Cash Bitcoin Gold BitConnect Bitcore BitShares Blackmoon Blocknet Blocktix BLOCKv Bloom Bodhi Bounty0x Burst Byteball Bytes Bytecoin Bytom Cardano Centra CloakCoin Cobinhood Counterparty Crown Cryptonex CyberMiles Dash Decentraland Decision Token Decred DeepOnion Delphy Dentacoin Diamond DigiByte DigitalNote DigixDAO Dimecoin district0x Divi Dogecoin Dragonchain DubaiCoin eBitcoin Edgeless Elastic Electra Electroneum Emercoin Enigma Enjin Coin EOS Ethereum Ethereum Classic Etherparty ETHLend Expanse Experience Points Factom FairCoin Feathercoin Flash Game.com Genesis Vision Gifto Gnosis Golem Golos Greencoin Grid+ GridCoin Groestlcoin GXShares HempCoin Hshare HTMLCOIN Humaniq Hush I/O Coin ICON iExec RLC Ink INS Ecosystem Internet Node Token ION IoT Chain IOTA Kin Komodo Kyber Network Lamden LAToken LBRY Credits LEOcoin Linda Lisk Litecoin Loopring Lunyr Lykke MaidSafeCoin Matchpool MediBloc MediShares Melon Mercury Metaverse ETP MinexCoin Mintcoin Moeda Loyalty Points MonaCoin Monero MonetaryUnit Monetha Mooncoin Myriad Namecoin NAV Coin Neblio Nebulas NEM NEO Neumark Neutron NewYorkCoin Nexus Nimiq NoLimitCoin Nuls Numeraire NVO OKCash OmiseGO Omni Open Trading Network Oyster Pandacoin Particl Pascal Coin Peercoin Peerplays Phore Pillar PIVX Playkey Po.et Populous PotCoin Presearch PRL Pura QLINK Qtum Quantstamp Quantum

Collecting Crypto Financial & Development Data

0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00 J a n 2 1 8 A p r 2 1 8 J u l 2 1 8 O c t 2 1 8 J a n 2 1 9

Market Cap (Scaled)

0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00 J a n 2 1 8 A p r 2 1 8 J u l 2 1 8 O c t 2 1 8 J a n 2 1 9

Total Stars (Scaled)

347 Days of Daily Measurements 347 Days of Daily Measurements Development Activity & Popularity Financial (Market Capitalization)

…and 239 other cryptocurrencies:

(different availability for different parts of the study)

…and more!

SLIDE 4

Correlation with Avg. Market Cap = (price × coins)

33% 66% 0%

Stars Watchers Forks Contrib. Commits LOC Added LOC Removed Popularity Metrics Activity Metrics

62% 61% 65% 50% 43% 38% 32%

Market Cap Any Badge Any CI 107 109 1011

Badge/CI: F True

(0.22) (0.30)

Quality Assurance Indicators …

SLIDE 5

Linear Models of Avg. Market Cap = (price × coins)

33% 66% 0%

Stars Watchers Forks Contrib. Commits LOC Added LOC Removed Popularity Metrics

62% 61% 65% 50% 43% 38% 32%

Quality Assurance Indicators …

Only popularity metrics are significantly and positively associated with avg. market cap.

SLIDE 6

Granger “Causality” Metrics ⟺ Market Cap

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Past Levels of Dependent Variable Past Levels of Independent Variable Dependent Variable

Time

Series 1 Lagged Series 1 + ε

0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00

Market Cap

0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00

Popularity

Stars Forks Watchers 0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00 Jan 2018 Apr 2018 Jul 2018 Oct 2018 Jan 2019

Activity

Commits Added Removed

Note: Toda-Yamamoto method

Coin: Bytom (1 of ~150)

Similar trends. for ~3 coins 4

SLIDE 7

Exclusive!

0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00

Market Cap

0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00

Popularity

Stars Forks Watchers 0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00 Jan 2018 Apr 2018 Jul 2018 Oct 2018 Jan 2019

Activity

Commits Added Removed

Metrics ⟺ Market Cap Not compelling.

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Representative example

No Granger Causality.

Monero

We see evidence of Granger causality in only a few projects.

Correcting for multiple hypotheses, this is insignificant. Stars Granger-cause? Market Cap Watchers Granger-cause? Market Cap 9/142 coins 4/146 coins

Binance, Cryptonex, Diamond, Electroneum, Emercoin, INS Ecosystem, Pandacoin, Vericoin, ZenCash Ark, Mintcoin, NEM, PIVX *(But we are likely to get similar from random noise.) 5

SLIDE 8

Exclusive!

0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00

Market Cap

0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00

Popularity

Stars Forks Watchers 0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00 Jan 2018 Apr 2018 Jul 2018 Oct 2018 Jan 2019

Activity

Commits Added Removed

Metrics ⟺ Market Cap Not compelling.

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Exceptional example ZenCash

We see evidence of Granger causality in only a few projects. Other models reveal a very weak connection between popularity and market cap, which is not robust.

Stars Granger-cause? Market Cap Watchers Granger-cause? Market Cap 9/142 coins 4/146 coins

Binance, Cryptonex, Diamond, Electroneum, Emercoin, INS Ecosystem, Pandacoin, Vericoin, ZenCash Ark, Mintcoin, NEM, PIVX Granger causality? < Large outlier *(But we are likely to get similar from random noise.) 6

SLIDE 9

Looks like we haven’t struck gold. BUT:

:-( A c t i v i t y Popularity Quality Assurance Perceived Quality Crypto Attractiveness Price

ε ε

F e a t u r e s & P u b l i c i t y

?

Correlation with Avg. Market Cap = (price × coins)

33% 66% 0%

Stars Watchers Forks Contrib. Commits LOC Added LOC Removed Popularity Metrics Activity Metrics

62% 61% 65% 50% 43% 38% 32%

Market Cap Any Badge Any CI 107 109 1011

Badge/CI: F True

(0.22) (0.30)

Quality Assurance Indicators …

E x c l u s i v e !

0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00 Market Cap 0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00 Popularity Stars Forks Watchers 0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00 Jan 2018 Apr 2018 Jul 2018 Oct 2018 Jan 2019 Activity Commits Added Removed

Metrics ⟺ Market Cap Not compelling.

Representative example

No Granger Causality.

Monero

We see evidence of Granger causality in only a few projects.

Correcting for multiple hypotheses, this is insignificant. Stars Granger-cause? Market Cap Watchers Granger-cause? Market Cap 9/142 coins 4/146 coins

Binance, Cryptonex, Diamond, Electroneum, Emercoin, INS Ecosystem, Pandacoin, Vericoin, ZenCash Ark, Mintcoin, NEM, PIVX *(But we are likely to get similar from random noise.)

Long-term: Signals of Pop. & QA Short-term: Very limited evidence Future work Multi-year trends Sophisticated models Volatility or volume Check out econometric techniques for future studies!

asher.trockman@gmail.com

Contact

http://ashertrockman.com 7