Storms Strengthening Security & Resilience in the 21 st Century - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Beyond the Storms

Strengthening Security & Resilience in the 21st Century

________________________ Dane S. Egli, PhD Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory

Why Why Cr Critica itical l Infra Infrast stru ruct ctur ure e Pr Prot

• tec

ectio tion? n?

So Society as ciety assu sumes mes it it wi will ll b be the e there re

• Priv

rivate s ate sector ector: : ow

• wns

ns & operates & operates approx 85% national approx 85% national inf infras rastructure tructure

• Mega

ega-communities communities: : 85% of 85% of population liv population lives es on 26% of

• n 26% of land,

land, generates generates 75% of 75% of GDP DP

• Bridges

Bridges: : ov

• ver

er 25% are s 25% are structurally tructurally def deficient icient

• Dams

Dams: : 85,000, 85,000, av average age ov erage age over 50 y er 50 yrs rs, , some

• me 4,000

4,000 at risk at risk

• Financial

Financial: : fragile ragile system tem w/cas cascading points cading points of

• f f

failure, ailure, GPS timing timing

• Trans

ransportation portation: 30% of : 30% of roads roads in in dis disrepair, repair, 36% 36% urban h urban highw ighway ays conge congested ted

• Oil

il: : ov

• ver 8

er 80% 0% of U

• f US refined

refined oil

• il supp

upply ly is is dis distribu tributed ted thro through ugh a a sing ingle le hub hub

• Maritime

aritime: 361 major ports, 13B containers/year, world’s largest trade ($645B)

• Pandemic I

andemic Inf nfluenza luenza: : lack v lack vaccines accines for v

• r virus

irus outbreak impacting

• utbreak impacting ov
• ver 156M

er 156M

• Gov
• vernance

ernance: legis : legislation, lation, CFRs CFRs, , statutes tatutes des designed igned for 20

• r 20th

th century

century

• Leaders

Leadership hip: : need need integrated national integrated national framew ramework f

• rk for action
• r action

St Stud udy y Ob Objec jective tives

• Con

Condu duct ct a a Strate Strategic Examina gic Examination tion to: to:

• Unders

Understand tand curr current ent st state ate of CIP

• f CIP post

post-9/11, 9/11, post post-Katr Katrina ina

• Ide

Identify ntify major major CIKR CIKR challenges acr challenges across

• ss nation

nation

• Condu

Conduct ct emp empirical irical research research to support to support sy syst stemic emic fin finding dings

• Propose new

Propose new solut solutions ions that that impact impact national policies national policies

“The ability to protect the critical infrastructure and key resources of the United Sta tates tes is is vital ital to our to our na national s tional security ecurity, , public public health health and s and saf afety ety, , economic v economic vitality itality, , and and way of life.” DHS Secretary (2006)

Glob Globalized alized Ec Econ

• nom
• my

Complex, int Complex, interconnected, erconnected, simult simultaneously aneously operat

• perating sy

ing syst stem em of

• f sy

syst stems ems

This his is is a lo a local cal-regio gional nal-sta tate te-fede ederal al-na nation tional al-con contine tinenta ntal-inte nterna nation tional al is issue ue Inter ntermodal modal suppl upply chains hains and impacting and impacting economies economies

18 18 C Cri riti tica cal l Infrastruc Infrastructure ture Se Secto ctors rs

Highly i Highly inter nterdependent dependent yet yet independently independently gover governed sy ned syst stems ems

Critical Manufacturing Commercial Facilities Energy Nuclear Reactors, Materials & Waste Water National Monuments & Icons Banking & Finance Health Care & Public Health Communications Defense Industrial Base Emergency Services Information Technology Dams Postal & Shipping Food & Agriculture Chemical Government Facilities Transportation Systems

Ja Japa pan n Ea Eart rthq hqua uake ke Ca Case se St Stud udy

Earth Earthqu quak ake, e, Tsuna Tsunami, mi, Fu Fuku kushima shima Nuc Nuclear lear Di Disast saster er

• 9.0

9.0 magnitude earthquake magnitude earthquake of

• ff

Eas astern Japan coas tern Japan coast in 2011 t in 2011

• Triggered ts

riggered tsunami unami wav aves es up to 133 up to 133 ft; t; flooding, looding, eros erosion, ion, ground ground saturation, aturation, dis disrupted global rupted global supply upply chains chains

• Nuclear dis

uclear disas aster ter natural/ natural/man man-made made imp impact acts; ; seco econd nd onl

• nly to C

to Cher hernob nobyl, l, Ukraine in kraine in 1986 1986

• Signif

ignificant icant dis disas aster ter les lessons

• ns for
• r

internation international al commun community ity:

• National

ational culture of culture of preparednes preparedness

• Soci
• ciety

ety em embra braced ced un unity ity-of

• f-eff

effort

• rt
• Unity

nity-of

• f-command

command failed ailed at the t at the top

• p
• Digital

Digital systems tems enabled comms enabled comms

• Lev

Leveraged high eraged high-tech s tech social

• cial media

media

• Submarine cables

ubmarine cables highly highly vulnerable ulnerable

Hur Hurrica ricane ne Iren Irene e Cas Case e Stu Study dy

Post Post-Kat Katrina rina te test st of na

• f nation

tional pre al prepa pare redn dness ess

• Only hurricane to make

landfall INCONUS in 2011

• Came ashore in NC and

impacted 12 states and 1/8 of U.S. population

• Fragile infrastructure lacking

flexible resilience

• Revealed major capability

gaps in CIKR system:

• EC weeks w/o electricity
• Trees destroyed power lines
• State MAAs not established
• Systems lack redundancy
• ER transportation barriers
• Large gaps between national

policy/local levels

Hur Hurrica ricane ne San Sandy dy Cas Case e Stu Study dy

Oct Octob

• ber

er 201 2012 2 Fr Fran anke kenst nstor

• rm
• Largest Atlantic hurricane on record, 90

mph winds, 1,100 miles in diameter, impacted 24 states

• Second only to Katrina in damage costs and

economic interruption (est. $66M), 10 million customers lost power

• 253 deaths across seven-country path from

Caribbean to Northeastern U.S.

• Revealed need for significant change…

transformational approach in CIKR, Preparedness, Resiliency

• Hit U.S. most densely-populated region
• Fujiwhara effect w/hurricane-nor’easter hybrid
• Cascading impact on global intermodal systems
• NYSE closed for 2 days, travelers stranded
• Flooded subways, tunnels, ports, airports
• Storm surge of 14’, 1,000-mile fetch
• Power, Comms, Housing, Sanitation, Donations
• Major inflection point for disaster mgmt planners

Irene Aug 2011 Sandy Oct 2012

Po Port rt Autho Authori rity ty New York/New New York/New Je Jersey rsey ( (PANY PANYNJ) NJ)

Internat International ional cros crossr sroads

• ads of intermodal
• f intermodal commerce

commerce

Hub of interconnected global supply chains NYC population over 8 million PANJNY 2012 budget $7B Nation’s #2 container port 1,340 acres of port terminal 2,000 waterways 2 Foreign Trade Zones (FTZs) 3,500 longshore workforce 2011 TEU containers 5.3 million 80 tenants across business sectors

Ge Geor

• rge

ge Wa Wash shing ingto ton n Br Bridg idge

Gr Greates eatest t vehicular vehicular capacity capacity in t in the wor he world, ld, 106 million vehicles 106 million vehicles per per year year, , built built in 1931 in 1931

JF JFK K Int Inter erna natio tiona nal l Airp Airpor

• rt

“Daniel Castillo walked in dripping wet…” 13 Aug 2012 USA Today

Tra Trans ns-Alask Alaska a Pipeline Pipeline Sys Syste tem m (TAPS) (TAPS)

800 miles from Pr 800 miles from Prudhoe Bay udhoe Bay to V to Valdez aldez, pr , privat ivately ely owned by

• wned by t

the he Aly Alyeska eska Pipeline S Pipeline Serv ervice Company ice Company

93 93 Major Major Findings Findings

20 T 20 Themes from hemes from polici policies, es, SME interview interviews, s, case case studies studies

• Str

Strat ategic egic Vis ision ion

• Cult

ultur ural al Fac Facto tors rs

• Meas

easur ureme ement nts-Met etric rics

• Public

Public-Priv Private Part ate Partners nerships hips

• Who

Whole le-of

• f-Nat

Nation C ion Challe hallenge nges

• Capa

apabilit bilities ies Appr pproac

• ach
• Inf

Infor

• rmat

mation Sha ion Sharin ring

• Ope

Opera ratio tional nal Applic pplicat ation ion

• Meas

easur ureme ement nts & & Met etric rics

• Mar

arit itime ime Secur Securit ity

• Res

Resilience ilience

• Policy Factor

Policy Factors

• Ris

Risk k As Asses sessment sments

• Mi

Mitigat tigation ion

• Nati

National Framew

• nal Framework
• rk
• Internat

International ional Collabor Collaboration ation

• Intelligence

Intelligence

• Legislat

Legislation ion Changes Changes

• Cyber

Cyber Se Security curity

• Global Supply Chains

Global Supply Chains

Collect Collective ive Act Action ion

Provide Provides s th the or e orga ganizi nizing ng princ principle iple an and d ec econ

• nomic i
• mic impe

mpera rative tive

• Homeland
• meland security

ecurity and and inf infras rastructure tructure protection are protection are public public goods goods—people people expect them to be there… like weather forecas

• recasts

ts, , clean air, clean air, military, military, etc etc

• Uncoordinated actions

ncoordinated actions driv driven en by by s self elf- interes interested parties ted parties puts puts s serv ervices ices at risk at risk, , theref therefore res

• re resilience

ilience mus must t be v be view iewed as ed as a a common common-pool pool res resource

• urce
• Independent

ndependent action action is is being taken being taken acros across s sectors ectors—an an env environment w ironment which hich is is hig highly hly inte interde rdepen penden dent

• Whole

Whole-of

• f-nation

nation collectiv collective e action action incentiv incentives es mus must t prov provide v ide value alue propos proposition ition for

• r public

public-priv private ate inv inves estments tments

• The

he cha challen llenge: ge: res resilien ilience ce and and inf infras rastructure protection are tructure protection are pos positiv itive e externalities externalities enjoyed by “free riders” but mus must t be part of be part of future inv uture inves estments tments

Str Strat ateg egic ic Objec Objective tives

20 reco 20 recomme mmenda ndations: tions: 13 str 13 strategic ategic and and 7 op 7 operational erational level level

• Define

Define crit critical ical infrast infrastruct ructure ure res resilience ilience (CIR) (CIR)

• Dev

Develop elop a a ris risk map k map (ex (exter ternal nal) dep ) dependencies endencies & & (internal) (internal) inter interdependencies dependencies for a for a discr discrete ete geographic geographic location location

• Lay gr

Lay groundwor

• undwork

k for a for a fun functional r ctional resili esilience ence framewor framework k based on based on fun functions ctions & capab & capabilit ilities ies that that is is scalable/ scalable/adaptable adaptable

• Demon

Demonst strate rate the the utility utility of

• f P

Public ublic-Private Private-Pa Part rtnerships nerships (P (PPP PP) ) by by wor working king w/ w/post post-9/11, 9/11, post post-Katr Katrina, ina, post post-Sand Sandy SM y SMEs Es

• Expa

Expand nd ris risk ass k assess essment ment methodologies methodologies, , building upon building upon curr current ent R = f (T R = f (T,V,C ,V,C) qua ) quantit ntitativ ative e approaches approaches

• As

Asser sert t the ut the utilit ility y of

• f collectiv

collective action e action in closing w in closing whole hole-of

• f-nation

nation policy gaps policy gaps in prepar in preparedness edness and res and resiliency iliency

1

Infrastructure Protection Functional Continuity

National Preparedness

Resilience

Pr Prevent ent Pr Protect

• tect

Mit Mitiga igate te Respon espond Reco ecover er

Land Land Maritime aritime Air ir Spa Space ce Cyber yber

National Resilience Framework

A scalable model and continuum of preparedness

An active virtue integrated into all operations and systems