[PPT] - STATE OF THE REGION CONTEXT STATE OF THE REGION Global Economic PowerPoint Presentation

SLIDE 1

STATE OF THE REGION

SLIDE 2

CONTEXT

STATE OF THE REGION

SLIDE 3

Global Economic Impacts

STATE OF THE REGION

SLIDE 4

Global Unemployment Rates‐ 5 Years

9.1% 4.3% 6.1% 7.1% 10.0% 5.2% 10.8% 6.0% 6.1% 5.0% 3.1% 4.1% 7.0% 10.1% 5.6% 5.0% 11.8% 5.2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% US Japan China Canada Euro AreaAustrialia India Brazil Russia

2011 2016

Source: The Economist October 22, 2016

SLIDE 5

Projected GDP 2013,2014,2015,2016

1.9% 1.7% 7.7% 1.7% ‐0.4% 2.4% 4.9% 2.2% 1.5% 1.5% 0.6% 6.6% 1.3% 1.5% 2.8% 7.6% ‐3.2% ‐0.7% ‐6% ‐4% ‐2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% US Japan China Canada Euro AreaAustrialia India Brazil Russia 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: The Economist October 22 , 2016

SLIDE 6

GDP GDP Pe Per Capit Capita (2015) (2015)

$55,800 $38,100 $14,100 $45,600 $37,800 $65,400 $6,200 $15,600 $25,400 $0 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 $70,000 US Japan China Canada Euro Area Austrialia India Brazil Russia 2015 Source: The World Bank, October, 2016

SLIDE 7

Sources: TIP Industries U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (total nonfarm employment, seasonally adjusted); NBER (recession dates); New York Times (format)

Forecast Summer 2016

SLIDE 8

Value of the U.S. Dollar

Source: MacroTrends.net

SLIDE 9

Geopolitics Get More Important Every Year

STATE OF THE REGION

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STATE OF THE REGION

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USA Nonfarm Payroll Employment

120 125 130 135 140 145 150 120 125 130 135 140 145 150

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Millions of Persons Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics September 144.74 mil.

15.3 million jobs added since February 2010‐ The longest streak

f private job growth in history

SLIDE 12

Average Hourly Earnings

1.0

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics

1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

September 2.6% 12 Month % Change

Monthly % Change Sep. 0.2% Aug. 0.1% Jul. 0.4% June 0.1% May 0.2%

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Education & Health Professional & Business Services Leisure & Hospitality Retail Trade Manufacturing Mining & Logging Financial Construction Utilities Information Wholesale Trade Transportation & Warehousing Other Services

Total Job Net Gain July 2015 to July 2016 2.4 million

SLIDE 14

Dow Dow Jo Jones‐ 2006 2006‐2016 2016

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STATE OF THE REGION

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AL AK AZ AR

CA

CO CT DE FL GA HA ID IL IN IA KS LA KY ME MD MA MI MN MS MO MT NE NV NH NJ NM NY NC ND OH OK OR PA RI SC SD TN TX UT VT VA WA WV WI WY

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 10 20 30 40 50

Average Statistical Ranking

Average "Best States" ranking

Rankings and Performance

Worse Performance Than Rank Better Performance Than Rank

States By Average Ranks by Forbes, CNBC, and Chief Executive Plotted Against Actual Performance for Job Growth, Wage Growth and Growth in GDP

SLIDE 17

2017 2017 St State Business Business Ta Tax Clim Climate In Index – St State Ranking Ranking

(1 is Best, 50 is Worst)

Overall Corporate Tax

Individual Income

Sales Tax Property Tax

Alabama 32nd

14 22 48 16

Arkansas 38th

40 29 44 24

Florida 4th

19 1 28 10

Georgia 36th

10 42 33 21

Kentucky 34th

28 30 13 36

Louisiana 41st

36 27 50 30

Maryland 42nd

21 46 14 42

Mississippi 28th

12 20 38 35

Missouri 15th

5 28 24 7

North Carolina 11th

4 15 19 31

Oklahoma 31st

9 38 36 12

South Carolina 37th

15 41 31 26

Tennessee 13th

22 8 46 29

Texas 14th

49 6 37 37

Virginia 33rd

6 40 11 28

West Virginia 18th

17 26 15 13

Source: 2017 State Tax Climate Index

SLIDE 18

Southern Southern St States es 1‐Ye Year

Emplo Employment Sep Sept 2015 2015 to to Sep Sept 2016 2016

1.7% 0.8% 1.5% 3.4% 2.8% 1.4% ‐1.0% 1.7% 1.1% 0.7% 1.9% ‐0.7% 2.7%2.5% 1.7% 2.1% 0.1% ‐1.5% ‐1.0% ‐0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0%

USA AL AR FL GA KY LA MD MO MS NC OK SC TN TX VA WV

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

SLIDE 19

Southern Southern St States es 1‐Ye Year

Ma Manuf nufactur uring Em Emplo ployment Sep Sept 2015 2015 to to Sep Sept 2016 2016

‐0.4% 1.7% ‐0.2% 4.4% 1.2% ‐0.5% ‐5.1% 1.8% ‐1.2% 0.9% ‐0.3% ‐7.3% 1.8%2.1% ‐3.1% ‐1.7% ‐1.5% ‐8.0% ‐6.0% ‐4.0% ‐2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0%

USA AL AR FL GA KY LA MD MO MS NC OK SC TN TX VA WV

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

SLIDE 20

Southern Southern St States es 1‐Ye Year

Pr Professional & Business Business Ser Servic ices Em Emplo ployment Chang Changes Sep Sept 2015 2015 to to Sep Sept 2016 2016

2.9% 0.7% 2.6% 4.8% 4.2% 2.8% ‐2.6% 2.3% 3.4% ‐5.6% 4.5% ‐3.1% 6.4% 3.3% 1.9% 4.0% 1.1% ‐8.0% ‐6.0% ‐4.0% ‐2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0%

USA AL AR FL GA KY LA MD MO MS NC OK SC TN TX VA WV

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

SLIDE 21

Southern Southern St States es 1‐Ye Year

% Em Emplo ployment Chang Changes Sep Sept 2015 2015 to to Sep Sept 2016 2016

0.8% ‐0.6% 2.3% 1.5% 2.3% 2.7% 0.8% 2.9% 1.9% 3.4% 2.8% 2.5% 3.2% 0.7% 1.5% 1.9% ‐0.4% 1.4% ‐1.0% 0.5% 1.7% 2.2% 2.0% 1.6% 0.7% 1.1% 0.2% 1.0% 2.7% 2.1% 1.3% ‐0.4% 1.1% 1.9% ‐1.3% 1.4% ‐0.7% 3.5% 0.9% 1.1% 2.7% 2.5% 2.5% 1.7% 2.9% 2.0% 2.1% 3.2% 0.1% 1.2% ‐3.2%

‐4.0% ‐3.0% ‐2.0% ‐1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0%

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware District of Columbia Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Oregon‐ 3.5% Florida 3.4% Idaho 3.2% Washington 3.2% Delaware 2.9% Utah 2.9%

SLIDE 22

Al All St States es 1‐Ye Year

To Total Em Emplo ployment Chang Changes Sep Sept 2015 2015 to to Sep Sept 2016 2016

16,300 ‐2,000 61,500 18,600 379,700 69,200 12,800 12,900 14,600 276,300 118,700 15,900 21,500 43,400 44,200 29,600 ‐5,900 25,800 ‐19,800 3,100 46,200 78,300 84,900 46,100 7,900 31,100 1,000 9,600 34,300 13,900 53,400 ‐3,100 106,600 82,600 ‐5,700 73,400 ‐11,300 61,600 51,500 5,300 54,400 10,600 71,300 206,800 39,800 6,200 81,100 100,500 600 36,000 ‐9,200

‐50,000 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware District of Columbia Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Total added jobs 2,447,000 California‐ 379,700 Florida‐ 276,300 Texas‐ 206,800 Georgia‐ 118,700 New York‐ 106,600 Washington‐100,500

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

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0.7% 2.4% 2.7% 2.9% 2.0% 1.6% ‐0.4% 3.4% 1.7% 0.9% 1.1% 1.8% 4.5% ‐0.9% 2.7% ‐0.3% 4.8% 1.9%

‐2% ‐1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% Government Leisure & Hospitality Education & Health Services Professional & Technical Services Financial Trade, Transport & Utilities Manufacturing Construction Total

NC USA

September 2015‐2016

Employment Gains By Sector for the United States and NC

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

SLIDE 24

0.6% 1.5% 3.4% 4.0% 1.4% 2.8% ‐1.7% 2.2% 2.1%

0.9% 1.1% 1.8% 4.5% ‐0.9% 2.7% ‐0.3% 4.8% 1.9%

0.9% 1.6% 5.7% 6.4% 3.3% 1.5% 1.8% 3.0% 2.7% ‐3% ‐2% ‐1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% Government Leisure & Hospitality Education & Health Services Professional & Technical Services Financial Trade, Transport & Utilities Manufacturing Construction Total

SC NC VA

September 2015‐2016

Employment Gains By Sector for the SC, VA and NC

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

SLIDE 25 Cherokee Clay Graham Macon Swain Jackson Haywood Madison Buncombe Henderson Tran- sylvania Yancey Avery McDowell Rutherford Polk Watauga Caldwell Burke Cleveland Ashe Alleghany Wilkes Alex- ander Catawba Lincoln Gaston Surry Yadkin Iredell Stokes Forsyth Davie Rowan Cabarrus Union Rockingham Guilford Davidson Randolph Stanly Anson Mont- gomery Moore Rich- mond Caswell Person Chatham Wake Lee Warren Franklin Harnett Hoke Scot- land Robeson Bladen Columbus Brunswick Johnston Northampton Halifax Nash Wilson Edgecombe Wayne Sampson Duplin Pender New Hanover Onslow Jones Lenoir Greene Pitt Hertford Gates Bertie Wash- ington Martin Beaufort Hyde Tyrrell Dare Craven Pamlico Carteret

Growth above state average of 2.6% Growing below state average of 2.6% Losing Jobs

NC Change in Number of Jobs 2014 ‐ 2015 North Carolina Average 2.6%

Source: NC Department of Commerce

SLIDE 26

North North Car Carolina lina Met Metro Em Emplo ployment Gr Growth th Augus August 2015 2015 – Augus ugust 2016 2016

1.8% 1.9% 2.6% 2.2% 2.3% 1.7%1.6% ‐0.4%‐0.3% 2.0% 1.1% 2.5% ‐1.4% 1.1% 0.7% ‐2% ‐2% ‐1% ‐1% 0% 1% 1% 2% 2% 3% 3% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

SLIDE 27

Pe Percentage Annual Annual Job Job Chang Change 1990 1990‐2015 2015

‐7% ‐5% ‐3% ‐1% 1% 3% 5%

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

United States North Carolina

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

SLIDE 28

Pe Percentage Annual Annual Job Job Chang Change 1990 1990‐2015 2015

‐7% ‐5% ‐3% ‐1% 1% 3% 5%

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

United States North Carolina PTP Region

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

SLIDE 29

Job Job Gr Growt

wth 2014

2014‐2015 2015

2.6% 2.8% 3.3% 1.8% 3.5% 4.0%

0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% Total Job Growth Manufacturing Business & Prof Servces

North Carolina PTP

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

SLIDE 30

PTP County Jobs 2014‐2015

57,755 41,318 10,769 177,824 269,167 43,898 26,161 6,896 9,628

58,070 41,838 11,772 180,479 275,949 44,385 26,042 6,967 9,760

50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 2014 2015 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

11,846 Net New Jobs

SLIDE 31

PTP County Manufacturing Jobs 2014‐2015

8,548 9,114 1,932 16,067 32,052 15,585 5,770 860 2,398

8,979 9,536 2,592 16,325 33,232 15,701 5,806 878 2,534

5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 2014 2015

3,257 Net New Manufacturing Jobs, Up 3.5%‐Growth in Every County

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

SLIDE 32

PTP County Employment Growth August 2015– August 2016

1,526 874 427 1,869 4,008 1,115 681 261 221 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500

PTP employment grew by over 10,000, and every county grew

Source: NC Commerce

SLIDE 33

PTP County Employment Growth August 2015 – August 2016

2.1% 1.2% 2.3% 1.1% 1.7% 1.8% 1.8% 1.3% 1.3% 1.5% 1.9% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5%

Source: NC Commerce

SLIDE 34

Comparisons

STATE OF THE REGION

SLIDE 35

GMP Growth 2015

2.5% 2.2% 2.5%

0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% Burlington Greensboro‐High Point Winston‐Salem

2015

Metros Growing 2.2% to 2.5% Richmond Columbia Birmingham Louisville Washington DC Metros Growing Slower Cincinnati Indianapolis Pittsburgh Chattanooga Mobile Boston New York Kansas City

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

SLIDE 36

GMP Growth 2015

2.5% 2.2% 2.5%

0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% Burlington Greensboro‐High Point Winston‐Salem

2015

Metros Growing Half as Fast as PTP Norfolk Greenville, NC Memphis Wichita Des Moises Houston Milwaukee

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

SLIDE 37

Forbes Best Places for Business and Careers

Greensboro and Winston‐Salem Ranked Ahead of…

Virginia Beach
Spartanburg
Huntsville
Roanoke
Birmingham
Mobile

Cost of Doing Business rank 19th and 21st

SLIDE 38

Metro Comparisons‐Population

1,145,647 744,526 2,426,363 547,776 810,068 552,493 874,869 444,752 1,830,345 1,273,568 1,271,334 314,560 325,079 752,157 659,330 158,276 ‐ 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 3,000,000

Source: US Census

SLIDE 39

Metro Comparisons‐% of Households with Someone Over 60

32.9% 23.1% 21.9% 38.1% 23.1% 21.6% 26.6% 32.5% 21.6% 18.6% 24.7% 40.4% 37.4% 34.5% 36.3% 36.1% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% 40.0% 45.0%

Source: US Census

SLIDE 40

Metro Comparisons‐Real GDP Per Capita

$50,174 $43,707 $55,610 $39,564 $42,201 $71,334 $39,213 $49,485 $55,841 $53,462$51,796 $41,159 $38,771 $46,257 $38,340 $28,700 $0 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 $70,000 $80,000

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

SLIDE 41

Metro Comparisons‐Manufacturing Productivity Per Job

$108,308 $119,533 $159,172 104650 $108,767 $525,300 $105,762 $129,572 $113,883 $211,573 $99,518 $159,718 $215,782 $102,854 $0 $100,000 $200,000 $300,000 $400,000 $500,000 $600,000

Source: Garner Economics 2016

SLIDE 42

Metro Comparisons‐Average Change in Weekly Wage 2010‐2015

3.3% 4.0% 1.9% 4.2% 2.1% ‐2.7% 1.4% ‐0.8% 5.0% 3.8% 0.5% 2.6% 0.1% 2.7% 1.4% 0.3% ‐4.0% ‐3.0% ‐2.0% ‐1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0%

Source: Bureau Labor Statistics

SLIDE 43

Metro Comparisons‐Average Rent

$797 $974 $847 $736 $837 $871 $731 $733 $855 $912 $981 $756 $693 $731 $696 $743 $0 $200 $400 $600 $800 $1,000 $1,200

Source: US Census

SLIDE 44

Remaining Competitive in a Rapidly Transforming World

PTP

STATE OF THE REGION

SLIDE 45

Now think all the way back to 2003…

LinkedIn (2003) Facebook (2004) YouTube (2005) Twitter (2006) IPhone (2007) Mobile apps Mobile maps Fitbit (2007) Spotify (2007) Dropbox (2007)

Airbnb (2008) Hulu (2008) Kickstarter (2009) Facetime (2010) Uber (2009) Pinterest (2010) Tumblr (2010) Snapchat (2011) Udacity (2012)

SLIDE 46

Fewer children‐ in 1960, 3.7 children, today 1.9

Demographic and Societal Trends

STATE OF THE REGION

SLIDE 47

The Slowing Global Population Growth

Source: The United Nations Data

SLIDE 48

SLIDE 49

Domes Domestic Mi Migrat ation 2010 2010‐2015 2015 fo for Al All St States es

160,346 ‐266,115 192,337 ‐104,537 650,660 ‐425,954 ‐191,130 ‐269,194 ‐653,071 180,189 ‐153,296‐132,073 159,023 736,492 124,326

‐800,000 ‐600,000 ‐400,000 ‐200,000 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware District of Columbia Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

2,005

The Winners The Losers Texas New York Florida Illinois Colorado New Jersey North Carolina California Arizona Michigan South Carolina Ohio

Source: US Census

SLIDE 50 Cherokee Clay Graham Macon Swain Jackson Haywood Madison Buncombe Henderson Tran- sylvania Yancey Avery McDowell Rutherford Polk Watauga Caldwell Burke Cleveland Ashe Alleghany Wilkes Alex- ander Catawba Lincoln Gaston Surry Yadkin Iredell Stokes Forsyth Davie Rowan Cabarrus Union Rockingham Guilford Davidson Randolph Stanly Anson Mont- gomery Moore Rich- mond Caswell Person Chatham Wake Lee Warren Franklin Harnett Hoke Scot- land Robeson Bladen Columbus Brunswick Johnston Northampton Halifax Nash Wilson Edgecombe Wayne Sampson Duplin Pender New Hanover Onslow Jones Lenoir Greene Pitt Hertford Gates Bertie Wash- ington Martin Beaufort Hyde Tyrrell Dare Craven Pamlico Carteret

10.6% and over increase 5.3% to 10.5% increase 0.1% to 5.2% increase population decrease

North Carolina Change in Population 2010 to 2015 North Carolina Average 5.3%

Source: US Census

SLIDE 51

Metro Comparisons‐Projected Population Growth 2014‐2044

10.6% 38.3% 52.3% 24.3% 31.6% 38.3% 30.0% 32.5% 36.5% 73.9% 20.2% 2.6% 11.7% 24.1% 23.2% 22.6% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0%

Source: US Conference of Mayors

SLIDE 52

U.S AL

AK AZ AR CA CO CT DE FL GA HA ID IL IN IA KS KY LA ME MD MA MI MN MS MO MT NE NV NH NJ NM NY NC ND OH OK OR PA RI SC SD TN TX UT VT VA WA WV WI WY ‐4.0% ‐2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 16.0% ‐10.0% ‐5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0%

Advanced Industry Wage Growth 2012 – 2015 Advanced Industry Job Growth 2012 ‐ 2015

Advanced Industry Job and Wage Growth 2012 ‐ 2015

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

SLIDE 53

Technology Sector Employment Growth (2010-2015)

Source: EL estimates based on EMSI 2016.3

0.8%

10.9% 20.6%

20%
10%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% West Virginia Kentucky Vermont Arkansas Wyoming Virginia Kansas Alabama New Jersey Louisiana Maryland Rhode Island Mississippi Connecticut Indiana Maine New Mexico Hawaii Ohio Idaho South Dakota Iowa Florida Alaska New Hampshire Pennsylvania Minnesota Nebraska South Carolina Tennessee Montana Nevada Wisconsin District of Columbia United States Washington Oklahoma Illinois Massachusetts Georgia Oregon Colorado Missouri New York California Arizona Delaware Utah Texas North Carolina Michigan North Dakota

NC Ranks: 3rd

Change Over Time

SLIDE 54

The The Ne Next Bi Big Things Things‐Demogr Demographi aphic

STATE OF THE REGION

SLIDE 55

The The Ne Next Bi Big Things Things‐Busi Business ness

STATE OF THE REGION

SLIDE 56

The The Ne Next Bi Big Things Things‐Technol chnologi gical

STATE OF THE REGION

SLIDE 57

STATE OF THE REGION