SLIDE 1
Standard Bank
Budget Presentation
March 2017 Vetumbuavi Mungunda Naufiku Hamunime
Standard Bank Budget Presentation Vetumbuavi Mungunda Naufiku - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Standard Bank Budget Presentation Vetumbuavi Mungunda Naufiku - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Standard Bank Budget Presentation Vetumbuavi Mungunda Naufiku Hamunime March 2017 Construction Slowdown Reduced Government Spending MACROECONOMIC OVERVIEW ECONOMIC GROWTH GDP by sector at Current Prices (N$ millions) Real GDP Growth
SLIDE 2
SLIDE 3
MACROECONOMIC OVERVIEW
SLIDE 4
ECONOMIC GROWTH
Real GDP Growth (%)
2.60 0.3 6 5.1 5.1 5.7 6.4 5.3 2.5 1 0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00 7.00
GDP by sector at Current Prices (N$ millions)
5000 10000 15000 20000 Agriculture & Forestry Fishing & Fish Processing Mining & Quarrying Manufacturing Electricity & Water Construction Wholesale & Retail Trade Hotel & Restaurants Transport & Communication Financial Intermediation Real Estate & Business Services Public Administration & Defence Education Health 2014 2015 2016
SLIDE 5
ECONOMIC GROWTH VS. PEERS
Regional GDP Growth (%)
- 10
- 8
- 6
- 4
- 2
2 4 6 8 10 12 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Namibia Bostwana Kenya South Africa
GDP per capita 2015 (USD)
1377 6360 5724 4674 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 Kenya Botswana South Africa Namibia
Nominal GDP 2015 (USD bn)
63 14 315 11 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 Kenya Botswana South Africa Namibia
SLIDE 6
ECONOMIC GROWTH VS. PEERS
Real GDP by sector 2015 (%)
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing Mining & Quarrying Manufacturing Electricity & Water Construction Wholesale & Retail Trade, Catering & Accomodation Transport & Communication Financial Intermediation & Real Estate Public Administration and Defence
Namibia South Africa Botswana Kenya
SLIDE 7
ECONOMIC GROWTH VS. PEERS
Regional Debt to GDP (%)
10 20 30 40 50 60 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Namibia Bostwana Kenya South Africa
Total Government Debt (NAD million)
5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Foreign Reserves (NAD million)
10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Net Debt
SLIDE 8
GOVERNMENT FINANCES
SLIDE 9
FISCAL OVERVIEW: REVENUE
Revenue (NAD million)
10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 Income Tax On Individuals 21% Company Tax 15% Domestic Taxes on Goods & Services 23% SACU Receipts 33% Non-Tax Revenue 6%
Composition of Government Revenue (2015/16)
5 10 15 20 SACU Receipts Domestic Taxes on Goods & Services Company Taxes Income Tax on Individuals
2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17
Main Revenue Categories (NAD bn)
- 5
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Year-on-Year Change (%) Total Tax Revenue
SLIDE 10
FISCAL OVERVIEW: REVENUE VS. PEERS
Revenue as % of GDP
Income Taxes 37% Domestic Taxes on Goods & Services 23% SACU Receipts 33% Other Taxes 1% Non-Tax Revenue (incl. Mineral Royalties) 6%
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 Namibia Botswana South Africa Kenya
2013 2014 2015 2016
Composition of Revenue (2015/16)
Income Taxes 27% Domestic Taxes on Goods & Services 10% SACU Receipts 30% Non-Tax Revenue (incl. Mineral Royalties) 32% Other 1%
Namibia
Total Revenue & Grants
N$52.22 Bn
Botswana
Total Revenue & Grants
N$64.79 Bn
SLIDE 11
FISCAL OVERVIEW: EXPENDITURE
Expenditure (NAD millions)
- 20
- 15
- 10
- 5
5 10 15 20 25 30 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 Revenue & Expenditure Year-on-Year Change (%) Government Revenue Government Expenditure
10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18
Composition of Government Expenditure (2016/17)
Personnel Expenditure 43% Goods & Other Services 15% Subsidies & Other Current Transfers 30% Acquisition
- f Capital
Assets 10% Capital Transfers 2%
SLIDE 12
FISCAL OVERVIEW: EXPENDITURE
Expenditure as % of GDP
10 20 30 40 50 Namibia Botswana South Africa Kenya
2013 2014 2015 2016
Total Expenditure (NAD bn)
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 2013 2014 2015 2016 Namibia Bostwana
SLIDE 13
FISCAL OVERVIEW: BUDGET ALLOCATIONS
5 10 15 20 25 Safety & Security Defence Finance Education Health and Social Services Urban & Regional Development Agriculture, Water & Forestry Transport Higher Education Poverty Eradication & Social Welfare
2014/15 2015/16 2016/17
Main Ministerial Allocations (% of Expenditure)
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 Defence Education Health
2015 2016
%
Botswana
5 10 15 20 Defence Education Health
2013 2014
Kenya
%
SLIDE 14
FISCAL OVERVIEW: WAGE BILL
Botswana
20 20.5 21 21.5 22 22.5 23 23.5 24 24.5 25
2014/15 2015/16 2016/17
Personnel Expenditure (NAD bn)
5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 Defence Force, Police & Correctional Services Education Health & Social Services Agriculture, Water & Forestry Works
Public Servants (2015/16)
Namibia
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OPERATIONAL VS. DEVELOPMENT BUDGET
Operational & Development Expenditure (NAD million)
500 1000 1500 2000 2500 Personnel Expenditure Goods & Other Services Subsidies & Transfers Acquisition of Capital Assets Statutory Expenditure
2016/17 Mid-Year Suspensions to the Operational Budget (NAD million)
10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 Operational Development
500 1000 1500 2000 2500 Goods & Other Services Acquisition of Capital Assets Capital Transfers
2016/17 Mid-Year Suspensions to the Development Budget (NAD million)
Total Development Budget was cut by N$2.7 Billion Total Operational Budget cut by N$2.82 Billion
SLIDE 16
Necessary Pains for A Secure Future
SLIDE 17
Foundations for A Secure Future Budget 2017/2018 Yes/ No
Reduce Wage Bill
Continue with Mid-Term Reforms: freezes in civil service, Performance Contracts, Revise PSEMAS
Policy Certainty (NEEEF, PPP)
PPP legislation introduced in parliament. NEEEF undergoing revisions after 2016 public consultations.
Reprioritize Expenditure
N$9 billion allocated to Development Expenditure, increase from N$ 6.3 allocated in previous financial year
Essential Infrastructure Spending (Water, Energy, Social Housing)
Development Infrastructure prioritized includes: Railway Rehabilitation, Expansion of Walvis Bay Port, Mass Land Servicing & Housing, and Water & Storage Infrastructure
SOEs Reform & Divestiture
Public Management Reforms
Budget Deficit & Debt
Budget Deficit projected to decrease from 6.3% (2016/17) to 3.5% Debt to GDP projected to remain consistent at 42%
Measures taken to stimulate increased industrial & economic activity (agriculture, tourism, etc.)
2017/18 BUDGET
? ? ? ? ?
SLIDE 18