SOM approach – methods: Expert evaluation questionnaire formats Prepared by ACTION WP6 (SYKE and HELCOM) Liisa Saikkonen liisa.saikkonen@ymparisto.fi HELCOM EN ESA 3 2019
How to carry out expert evaluations? 1. Present survey formats that we have come up with: - activity-pressure contributions to assess how much different activities contribute to different pressures - Measure group pressure reduction from activities to assess the effect that measures have on pressures caused by different activities These will be further linked to pressure targets and state to calculate the sufficiency of measures (forthcoming). 2. How to carry out expert evaluations in practice? 2
Geographic scale for activity-pressure contributions:sub-basins 1. North: Bothnian Sea, The Quark, Bothnian Bay 2. Åland Sea including Archipelago Sea Coastal waters 3. Northeast: Gulf of Riga, Gulf of Finland 4. Central: North Baltic Proper, Western Gotland Basin 5. South: Eastern Gotland Basin, Gdansk Basin, Bornholm Basin, Arkona Basin 6. Southwest: Kattegat, Great Belt, The Sound, Kiel Bay, Bay of Mecklenburg Activity-pressure contributions are the same for all sub-sub-basins within one sub-basin! 3
Activity-pressure contribution 4
Measure group % -effect on pressure from activity: Options A and B - probability scales 5
Measure group % -effect on pressure from activity: Option C - probability scale with dynamic bins First ask what is - most likely pressure reduction % (M) - lowest possible pressure reduction % (L) - highest possible pressure reduction % (H) Let’s say the expert answers M=6.5%, L=0% and H=15% Then create probability scale based on these… 6
Measure group % -effect on pressure from activity: Option C – probability scale with dynamic bins 7
How to carry out expert evaluations in practice? ● web surveys, consensus vote, or some other practice? ● Should we set priors based on existing data and models? How? ● Supporting data/model results to support expert evaluation? ● How to collect data/model results from Action WPs and SOM groups to support the expert elicitations? ● Guidance? ● All comments, insights and recommendations are appreciated! 8
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