SOM approach methods: Expert evaluation questionnaire formats - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

SOM approach – methods: Expert evaluation questionnaire formats

Prepared by ACTION WP6 (SYKE and HELCOM) Liisa Saikkonen liisa.saikkonen@ymparisto.fi HELCOM EN ESA 3 2019

• 1. Present survey formats that we have come up with:
• activity-pressure contributions to assess how much different

activities contribute to different pressures

• Measure group pressure reduction from activities to assess the

effect that measures have on pressures caused by different activities These will be further linked to pressure targets and state to calculate the sufficiency of measures (forthcoming).

• 2. How to carry out expert evaluations in practice?

2

How to carry out expert evaluations?

• 1. North: Bothnian Sea, The Quark, Bothnian Bay
• 2. Åland Sea including Archipelago Sea Coastal waters
• 3. Northeast: Gulf of Riga, Gulf of Finland
• 4. Central: North Baltic Proper, Western Gotland Basin
• 5. South: Eastern Gotland Basin, Gdansk Basin, Bornholm Basin,

Arkona Basin

• 6. Southwest: Kattegat, Great Belt, The Sound, Kiel Bay, Bay of

Mecklenburg Activity-pressure contributions are the same for all sub-sub-basins within one sub-basin!

3

Geographic scale for activity-pressure contributions:sub-basins

4

Activity-pressure contribution

5

Measure group % -effect on pressure from activity: Options A and B - probability scales

First ask what is

• most likely pressure reduction % (M)
• lowest possible pressure reduction % (L)
• highest possible pressure reduction % (H)

Let’s say the expert answers M=6.5%, L=0% and H=15% Then create probability scale based on these…

6

Measure group % -effect on pressure from activity: Option C - probability scale with dynamic bins

7

Measure group % -effect on pressure from activity: Option C – probability scale with dynamic bins

• web surveys, consensus vote, or some other practice?
• Should we set priors based on existing data and models? How?
• Supporting data/model results to support expert evaluation?
• How to collect data/model results from Action WPs and SOM

groups to support the expert elicitations?

• Guidance?
• All comments, insights and recommendations are appreciated!

8

How to carry out expert evaluations in practice?

9