Solar Cell Market Evolution Can we predict the next wave of - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Solar Cell Market Evolution Can we predict the next wave of - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Solar Cell Market Evolution Can we predict the next wave of innovation? Jim Rand 8 May 2014 Market Highlights Ramification on Supply Technology Demand Price 1. Look Forward for Growth Potential 2. Look Backward for What Triggered Change

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5/8/2014 J.A.Rand

Solar Cell Market Evolution

Can we predict the next wave of innovation?

Jim Rand 8 May 2014

Market Highlights Supply Demand Price Ramification on Technology

1. Look Forward for Growth Potential 2. Look Backward for What Triggered Change 3. Look Forward for Guidance on Technology

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Definition: “The Market” = Flat Plate PV

2

Conventional Silicon PV Modules Thin Film Modules (CdTe, CIGS)

Convention, Rack Mounted, One-Sun, Flat-Plate Modules

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Definition: “The Market” = Flat Plate Silicon PV

Capacity (MW) Market Share (%)

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5/8/2014 J.A.Rand $0 $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 $60 $70 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Average Selling Price (2011 $'s) Installed Module Capacity (GW)

4 “Solar Industry Update”, David Feldman, Robert Margolis, NREL

The US has a great runway ahead with >100 GW to install, perhaps a good deal more Existence Proof exists with Germany, which was done at much higher price

  • 1. Look Forward for Growth Potential
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0.4 4. 40. 0.1 1. 10. 100. 1,000. 10,000. 100,000. 1,000,000. 10,000,000. Global Average Power -Module Price (2011$/Wp) Cumulative PV Module Shipments (MWp)

PV Module Experience Curve

The first 25 Years

The Missionary Period

We knew we were doing the right thing – but there was no money in it.

“Solar Industry Update”, David Feldman, Robert Margolis, NREL

  • 2. Look Backwards for Triggers to Change
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0.4 4. 40. 0.1 1. 10. 100. 1,000. 10,000. 100,000. 1,000,000. 10,000,000. Global Average Power -Module Price (2011$/Wp) Cumulative PV Module Shipments (MWp)

2001-2008

The Party Years

The Silicon Crisis with a Silver Lining

The Silver Lining of the Silicon Shortage

  • 1. Profits!!!.....Wall Street notices, billions in investment follows
  • 2. Productivity Increases are Accelerated…wafers get thinner quick
  • 3. Technologist are Valued…..opportunity, respect, and stock options
  • 4. More Room on the Field for Small Players….the thin film window opens

“Solar Industry Update”, David Feldman, Robert Margolis, NREL

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Huge Gains in Productivity

Compiled by David Feldman. Sources: 2004 CLSA. Solar Power: Sector

  • Outlook. Michael Rogol. July 2005. 2005-2013 Photon Consulting. Solar

Annual 2007, 2008, 2012, 2013.

Similar gains in all aspects of manufacturing (with the possible exception of labor)

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0.4 4. 40. 0.1 1. 10. 100. 1,000. 10,000. 100,000. 1,000,000. 10,000,000. Global Average Power -Module Price (2011$/Wp) Cumulative PV Module Shipments (MWp)

2009 to Today

The End of the Beginning

Profits disappear Manufacturing continues in places that don’t need profits

By 2012, 77 different solar firms left the sector, either by closure, bankruptcy, or fire-sale.

“Rest in Peace: The List of Deceased Solar Companies”, Eric Wesoff, Greentech Media, 6 April 2013

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5/8/2014 J.A.Rand

  • The Silicon Technology is Firmly in Place

– Supply Chain – Manufacturability – Market Acceptance

  • Proven in the Field
  • Prices are “dirt cheap”
  • Investment Community Has Moved On
  • Any new incremental technology improvement will

be taken up by the existing manufacturers in Asia

  • We are STILL not competitive without Incentives

Recap of Present Status

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5/8/2014 J.A.Rand

  • Reduce the Cost of the “Active”

Solar Cell Material and Device

  • Cost of the “Package”
  • Enhance Productivity - 1400

kwh/kwpv

  • Decrease BOS
  • Big Increase in Efficiency

Addressing the Key Elements of $/kwh

Make a cheaper module…only with comparable efficiency and reliability Widespread use of Trackers? Just AZ? We can all agree >30%....nothing incremental

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5/8/2014 J.A.Rand

High Efficiency at the Module Level

Si

SPWR

M.A. Green, “Third Generation Photovoltaics”, 2003

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Big Gains in Efficiency Come From:

1. Intermediate Bandgap 2. Thermal Photovoltaics 3. Hot Carrier Solar Cells 4. Multiple Electrons per Photon 5. Multi-Junction Solar Cells

Only Multi-Junction Solar Cells have been shown to work.

3rd Generation Solar Cells

SpectroLab record efficiency multi-junction device structure which has demonstrated 40.7% under concentration.

“CPV, mainly HCPV, is considered by some as a sleeping giant. CPV is expected to reach around 1 GW of production capacity by 2017”

Global Market Outlook, 2013, EPIA

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End

  • Jim.rand.solar@gmail.com
  • My Next Venture:

Performance and Reliability at the Module Level