Softwood Market Survey International Softwood Confernce Geneva, - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Softwood Market Survey International Softwood Confernce Geneva, - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Apr 07, 2023 11 likes •292 views

Softwood Market Survey International Softwood Confernce Geneva, 8th October 2007 E.O.S. European Organisation of the Sawmill Industry aisbl O.E.S. Organisation Europenne des Scieries aisbl Organisation E.O.S. Europische Organisation

slide-1
SLIDE 1

E.O.S.

European Organisation of the Sawmill Industry aisbl

O.E.S.

Organisation Organisation Européenne des Scieries aisbl

E.O.S.

Europäische Organisation der Sägewerke aisbl

Softwood Market Survey

International Softwood Confernce Geneva, 8th October 2007

slide-2
SLIDE 2

E.O.S.

European Organisation of the Sawmill Industry aisbl

O.E.S.

Organisation Organisation Européenne des Scieries aisbl

E.O.S.

Europäische Organisation der Sägewerke aisbl

Data provided by EOS members and associated contacts Incomplete data completed with figures from UNECE and other sources

Crucial to receive complete and reliable data

slide-3
SLIDE 3

E.O.S.

European Organisation of the Sawmill Industry aisbl

O.E.S.

Organisation Organisation Européenne des Scieries aisbl

E.O.S.

Europäische Organisation der Sägewerke aisbl

Production of softwood

slide-4
SLIDE 4

E.O.S.

European Organisation of the Sawmill Industry aisbl

O.E.S.

Organisation Organisation Européenne des Scieries aisbl

E.O.S.

Europäische Organisation der Sägewerke aisbl

General overview

200.000 210.000 220.000 230.000 240.000 2005 2006 2007* 2008**

2006 2007 2008 EUROPE (EOS) 103.986 m 3 110.230 m 3 112.930 m 3 NORTH AMERICA* 124.395 m 3 117.238 m 3 116.099 m 3 OTHER 6.646 m 3 6.875 m 3 7.040 m 3 Development of Softwood production (000 m 3 ) – according to region

* Data for North America based on data provided by the Western Wood Products Association (WWPA)

slide-5
SLIDE 5

E.O.S.

European Organisation of the Sawmill Industry aisbl

O.E.S.

Organisation Organisation Européenne des Scieries aisbl

E.O.S.

Europäische Organisation der Sägewerke aisbl

North America: Decline

25.000 50.000 75.000 AT BE CH CZ DE FI FR IT NO RO RU SE DK LV UK CAN USA 2006 2007 2008

slide-6
SLIDE 6

E.O.S.

European Organisation of the Sawmill Industry aisbl

O.E.S.

Organisation Organisation Européenne des Scieries aisbl

E.O.S.

Europäische Organisation der Sägewerke aisbl

EOS: Continuous growth

5.000 10.000 15.000 20.000 25.000 30.000 AT BE CH CZ DE FI FR IT NO RO RU SE 2006 2007 2008

slide-7
SLIDE 7

E.O.S.

European Organisation of the Sawmill Industry aisbl

O.E.S.

Organisation Organisation Européenne des Scieries aisbl

E.O.S.

Europäische Organisation der Sägewerke aisbl

FI 11,7% DE 22,4% AT 9,9% SE 17,3% RU 19,0% FR 7,7% IT 0,8% NO 2,3% RO 2,5% BE 1,3% CZ 3,7% CH 1,4%

Relative shares (2006)

FI 5,2% UK 1,2% CAN 24,3% USA 28,6% RU 8,4% DE 9,9% AT 4,4% SE 7,7% DK 0,2% LV 1,4% CH 0,6% CZ 1,6% BE 0,6% RO 1,1% NO 1,0% IT 0,4% FR 3,4%

slide-8
SLIDE 8

E.O.S.

European Organisation of the Sawmill Industry aisbl

O.E.S.

Organisation Organisation Européenne des Scieries aisbl

E.O.S.

Europäische Organisation der Sägewerke aisbl

% variation in production (2006)

  • 10%
  • 5%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% AT USA CAN FI CH DK RO RU UK LV NO CZ SE FR IT DE BE

slide-9
SLIDE 9

E.O.S.

European Organisation of the Sawmill Industry aisbl

O.E.S.

Organisation Organisation Européenne des Scieries aisbl

E.O.S.

Europäische Organisation der Sägewerke aisbl

Other markets

United Kingdom

– Strong increase in production (3 million m3, i.e. +7.5% in 2007)

Denmark

– Highly concentrated market (+ 50 mills) with stable production (500 thousand m3)

Latvia

– Increased production (3.3 million m3, i.e. +2.2%)

China

– Growing production following an expansion

  • f the production capacity and log supply

from Russia

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SLIDE 10

E.O.S.

European Organisation of the Sawmill Industry aisbl

O.E.S.

Organisation Organisation Européenne des Scieries aisbl

E.O.S.

Europäische Organisation der Sägewerke aisbl

Consumption of softwood

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SLIDE 11

E.O.S.

European Organisation of the Sawmill Industry aisbl

O.E.S.

Organisation Organisation Européenne des Scieries aisbl

E.O.S.

Europäische Organisation der Sägewerke aisbl

General overview

2006 2007 2008 EUROPE 67.684 m 3 71.508 m 3 71.880 m 3 NORTH AMERICA* 138.334 m 3 124.450 m 3 121.915 m 3 OTHER 14.170 m 3 14.789 m 3 15.107 m 3 Development of Softwood consumption (000 m 3 ) – according to region

* Data for North America based on data provided by the Western Wood Products Association (WWPA)

150.000 175.000 200.000 225.000 2005 2006 2007* 2008

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SLIDE 12

E.O.S.

European Organisation of the Sawmill Industry aisbl

O.E.S.

Organisation Organisation Européenne des Scieries aisbl

E.O.S.

Europäische Organisation der Sägewerke aisbl

North America: strong decline

20.000 40.000 60.000 80.000 100.000 120.000 AT BE CH CZ DE FI FR IT NO RO RU SE DK LV UK CAN USA 2006 2007 2008

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SLIDE 13

E.O.S.

European Organisation of the Sawmill Industry aisbl

O.E.S.

Organisation Organisation Européenne des Scieries aisbl

E.O.S.

Europäische Organisation der Sägewerke aisbl

EOS: looking good

5.000 10.000 15.000 20.000 25.000 AT BE CH CZ DE FI FR IT NO RO RU SE 2006 2007 2008

slide-14
SLIDE 14

E.O.S.

European Organisation of the Sawmill Industry aisbl

O.E.S.

Organisation Organisation Européenne des Scieries aisbl

E.O.S.

Europäische Organisation der Sägewerke aisbl

USA 53,9% FI 2,2% UK 4,4% CAN 8,9% FR 4,9% IT 3,3% NO 1,3% RO 0,5% BE 1,0% CZ 1,0% CH 0,7% LV 0,7% DK 1,3% SE 2,3% AT 2,4% DE 9,2% RU 2,0% AT 7,7% DE 29,9% FI 7,3% SE 7,4% RU 6,5% CH 2,4% CZ 3,3% BE 3,2% RO 1,5% NO 4,2% IT 10,8% FR 15,8%

Relative shares (2006)

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SLIDE 15

E.O.S.

European Organisation of the Sawmill Industry aisbl

O.E.S.

Organisation Organisation Européenne des Scieries aisbl

E.O.S.

Europäische Organisation der Sägewerke aisbl

% variation in consumption

(2006)

  • 15%
  • 10%
  • 5%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% RU SE CZ USA UK CH FI NO CAN FR AT RO DK IT BE DE LV

slide-16
SLIDE 16

E.O.S.

European Organisation of the Sawmill Industry aisbl

O.E.S.

Organisation Organisation Européenne des Scieries aisbl

E.O.S.

Europäische Organisation der Sägewerke aisbl

Other markets

United Kingdom

– High demand in 2007 (over 10 million m3, i.e +4.4% in 2007)

Latvia

– Increased demand (1.8 million m3, i.e. +17.6% in 2006 and + 12.2% in 2007)

Denmark

– Solid demand (2.8 million m3), but mounting insecurity for future

China

– Continuous rise in consumption up to 330 million m3 by 2010

slide-17
SLIDE 17

E.O.S.

European Organisation of the Sawmill Industry aisbl

O.E.S.

Organisation Organisation Européenne des Scieries aisbl

E.O.S.

Europäische Organisation der Sägewerke aisbl

Sawn softwood trade

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SLIDE 18

E.O.S.

European Organisation of the Sawmill Industry aisbl

O.E.S.

Organisation Organisation Européenne des Scieries aisbl

E.O.S.

Europäische Organisation der Sägewerke aisbl

  • Europe is a net exporter of sawn

softwood compared to North America as a net importer

  • Net exporters: CA, RU and SE
  • Net importers: USA, UK and IT
  • China
  • exports and imports have increased, although

the latter at a slower pace

A T B E C H C Z D E F I F R IT N O R O R U S E E O S D K L V U K C A N U S A T O T A L E x p

  • rt

6 .6 9 4 1 .0 0 2 2 1 1 .9 4 3 7 .2 9 5 7 .7 1 2 9 1 4 6 2 4 7 2 1 .6 1 6 1 5 .4 2 8 1 3 .2 3 5 6 .5 3 8 1 5 0 2 .1 6 2 2 5 0 3 7 .9 9 2 .1 7 5 9 9 .1 8 4 Im p

  • rt

1 .6 4 1 1 .8 5 0 3 3 9 3 5 5 4 .2 3 4 5 1 5 3 .5 7 3 6 .4 9 9 8 3 2 3 6 2 1 1 1 9 .7 5 6 2 .7 5 0 4 5 1 7 .1 8 6 5 3 5 3 .5 2 0 8 4 .1 6 6 S u rp lu s /D e fic it 5 .0 5 3 -8 5

  • 1

1 8 1 .5 8 8 3 .0 6 1 7 .1 9 7 -2 .6 5 9

  • 6

.3 4 7

  • 5

1 1 1 .5 9 3 1 5 .4 2 2 1 2 .9 9 2 3 6 .7 8 2 -2 .6 1 .7 1 1 -6 .9 3 6 3 7 .4 6 -5 1 .3 4 5 1 5 .0 1 8

slide-19
SLIDE 19

E.O.S.

European Organisation of the Sawmill Industry aisbl

O.E.S.

Organisation Organisation Européenne des Scieries aisbl

E.O.S.

Europäische Organisation der Sägewerke aisbl

Softwood logs

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SLIDE 20

E.O.S.

European Organisation of the Sawmill Industry aisbl

O.E.S.

Organisation Organisation Européenne des Scieries aisbl

E.O.S.

Europäische Organisation der Sägewerke aisbl

Availability of logs (2007)

AT DK FR AU CH DE FI NO RU USA (WWPA) USA (RISI) AT (storm) BE RO CZ

High Normal Low

slide-21
SLIDE 21

E.O.S.

European Organisation of the Sawmill Industry aisbl

O.E.S.

Organisation Organisation Européenne des Scieries aisbl

E.O.S.

Europäische Organisation der Sägewerke aisbl

Log trade (2006)

  • Europe and North America are net

exporters

  • Mainly Russia
  • Net importers: AT and FR
  • China
  • Net importer with growing need for logs

A T B E C H C Z D E F I F R IT N O R O R U S E E O S L V U K C A N U S A T O T A L E x p

  • rt

4 4 5 4 1 .2 5 0 1 .7 9 4 3 .6 2 4 2 9 1 7

  • 2

5 3 8 2 .5 0 1 .5 1 0 3 1 .0 5 4 3 9 9 1 3 6 4 .6 5 0 7 .0 4 4 4 3 .2 8 3 Im p

  • rt

6 .0 3 4 6 8 5 1 2 8 6 4 2 .6 0 3 .1 3 7 7 3 4

  • 2

5 3 2 7 2 7 5 0 1 5 .5 3 9 6 9 3 7 7 2 .8 5 0 2 .1 3 3 2 1 .5 8 S u rp lu s /D e fic it

  • 5

.5 9 4

  • 1

4 5 1 .2 3 8 9 3 1 .0 0 -2 .8 9 5 1 8 3

  • 2

6 2 2 .3 0 7 6 0 1 5 .5 1 5 -2 1

  • 2

4 1 1 .8 0 4 .9 1 1 2 1 .7 7 5

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SLIDE 22

E.O.S.

European Organisation of the Sawmill Industry aisbl

O.E.S.

Organisation Organisation Européenne des Scieries aisbl

E.O.S.

Europäische Organisation der Sägewerke aisbl

Cost and price developments

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SLIDE 23

E.O.S.

European Organisation of the Sawmill Industry aisbl

O.E.S.

Organisation Organisation Européenne des Scieries aisbl

E.O.S.

Europäische Organisation der Sägewerke aisbl

Cost development softwood logs in 2006

25 50 75 100 125 150 A T B E C H C Z D E F I F R R O R U L V A U U S A ( R I S I ) U S A ( W W P A ) %

Cost development energy 2006

25 50 75 100 125 A T B E C H C Z D E F I F R R O R U L V A U U S A ( R I S I ) U S A ( W W P A ) %

slide-24
SLIDE 24

E.O.S.

European Organisation of the Sawmill Industry aisbl

O.E.S.

Organisation Organisation Européenne des Scieries aisbl

E.O.S.

Europäische Organisation der Sägewerke aisbl

Cost development transport in 2006

25 50 75 100 A T B E C H C Z F I F R R O R U L V A U U S A ( R I S I ) U S A ( W W P A ) %

Price development sawn softwood in 2006

25 50 75 100 125

A T B E C H C Z D E F I F R R O R U L V A U U S A ( R I S I ) U S A ( W W P A )

%

slide-25
SLIDE 25

E.O.S.

European Organisation of the Sawmill Industry aisbl

O.E.S.

Organisation Organisation Européenne des Scieries aisbl

E.O.S.

Europäische Organisation der Sägewerke aisbl

Price development chips in 2006

50 100 150 AT BE CH CZ DE FR RO RU LV AU USA (RISI) USA (WWPA) %

P rice d evelo p m en t saw d u st in 2006

50 100 150 A T B E CH CZ DE FR RO LV A U US A %

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SLIDE 26

E.O.S.

European Organisation of the Sawmill Industry aisbl

O.E.S.

Organisation Organisation Européenne des Scieries aisbl

E.O.S.

Europäische Organisation der Sägewerke aisbl

To sum up....

  • Growing European production vs.

worsening trend in North America

  • Good demand for sawn softwood,

except in the USA, as very reliant on construction sector

  • Europe is a net exporter of logs and

sawn wood

  • Prices are stable while costs increase
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SLIDE 27

E.O.S.

European Organisation of the Sawmill Industry aisbl

O.E.S.

Organisation Organisation Européenne des Scieries aisbl

E.O.S.

Europäische Organisation der Sägewerke aisbl

To sum up....

  • Future trends:
  • Supply problems
  • Chinese influence
  • Biomass energy (threat and
  • pportunity)
  • Green Public Procurement as new

topic on the political scene

slide-28
SLIDE 28

E.O.S.

European Organisation of the Sawmill Industry aisbl

O.E.S.

Organisation Organisation Européenne des Scieries aisbl

E.O.S.

Europäische Organisation der Sägewerke aisbl

Thank you for your attention!