Snake River Hatchery Fall Chinook Salmon Abundance and Population - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Snake River Hatchery Fall Chinook Salmon Abundance and Population - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Feb 04, 2024 27 likes •157 views

Snake River Hatchery Fall Chinook Salmon Abundance and Population Composition William Young, NPT Deborah Milks, WDFW S. Rosenberger, IPC John Powel, PSMFC/IDFG Daniel Hasselman, CRITFC HGMP Addendum: What we will have a good understanding of

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SLIDE 1

Snake River Hatchery Fall Chinook Salmon Abundance and Population Composition

William Young, NPT Deborah Milks, WDFW

  • S. Rosenberger, IPC

John Powel, PSMFC/IDFG Daniel Hasselman, CRITFC

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SLIDE 2

HGMP Addendum: What we will have a good understanding of by 2017

  • Adult hatchery and natural returns to Lower Granite Dam (LGR)
  • Adult hatchery and natural escapement above LGR
  • Percentage of the hatchery-origin spawners (pHOS)
  • Run reconstruction, 2003 - 2016
  • Parentage-based tagging (PBT), 2016
  • Percentage of the natural-origin fish used in hatchery broodstock (pNOB)
  • Run reconstruction, 2007 - 2016
  • Parentage-based tagging (PBT), 2016
  • Age-at-return for hatchery- and natural-origin fish
  • Genetic diversity and effective population size
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10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000

Draft Management Escapement Goal (39,110) ICTRT minimum viability = 3,000

Natural-origin Abundance = 8,786 Hatchery-origin Adundance = 23,554

10-year geomeans

Adult Fall Chinook Abundance to Lower Granite Dam

Hatchery Natural New run reconstruction methods

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SLIDE 4

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Adult Escapment Above Lower Granite Dam

10000 20000 30000 40000

Adult fall Chinook escapement above Lower Granite Dam

Natural-origin Escapement = 7,722 (8,786) Hatchery-origin Escapement = 18,534 (23,554)

10-year geomeans

Hatchery Natural

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Adult fall Chinook escapement and proportion of hatchery-origin spawners (pHOS) above Lower Granite Dam

Recent 10-year average pHOS = 0.70

1 9 9 4 1 9 9 5 1 9 9 6 1 9 9 7 1 9 9 8 1 9 9 9 2 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 2 6 2 7 2 8 2 9 2 1 2 1 1 2 1 2 2 1 3 2 1 4 2 1 5 2 1 6

Adult Escapment Above Lower Granite Dam

10000 20000 30000 40000

Proportion of Adult Hatchery-origin Spawners (pHOS)

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0

Hatchery Natural pHOS

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Run Reconstruction and parentage-based-tagging (PBT) estimates of proportion of hatchery-origin spawners (pHOS) in 2016

0.754 0.748 0.831 0.769 0.763 0.753 0.743 0.849 0.774 0.766

0.700 0.750 0.800 0.850 0.900

Females Males Jacks <52 cm All Males (male+jack) All Fish

pHOS

PBT Run Reconstruction

  • 3.0%
  • 2.0%
  • 1.0%

0.0% 1.0%

Relative Difference in pHOS

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SLIDE 7

0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35 0.4 0.45 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

# naturals in broodstock/total broodstock)

Spawn Year

WDFW pNOB NPTH pNOB Total pNOB

Run Reconstruction estimates of proportion of natural-

  • rigin broodstock (pNOB) from 2007 - 2016

Minimum pNOB pNOB goal

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SLIDE 8

Run Reconstruction and parentage-based-tagging (PBT) estimates of proportion of natural-origin broodstock (pNOB)

0.35 0.35 0.35 0.28 0.28 0.28

0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.35 0.40 NPTH LFH All

Proportion of Natural-origin Brood Stock (pNOB) PBT Run reconstruction

  • 10.0%

0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0%

Relative difference in pNOB

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Fall Chinook Age Composition

0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40

Oc Age 0 Oc Age 1 Oc Age 2 Oc Age 3 Oc Age 4

Ocean Age Proportion

Hatchery Natural

  • 80.0%
  • 40.0%

0.0% 40.0% 80.0%

Relative Ocean Age Composition Difference

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0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Hatchery, 2003 - 2016

0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Natural, 2003 - 2016

Natural and Hatchery Fall Chinook Age Composition Trends

Ocean age 0 Ocean age 1 Ocean age 2 Ocean age 3 Ocean age 4

Trends

Hatchery Natural

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Snake River fall Chinook genetic diversity

  • Snake River fall Chinook were distinct (Utter et al. 1982; Marshall et al. 2011)
  • But, by how much (Kassler et al. 2004; Hecht et al. 2015)
  • Demonstrated high levels of genetic diversity

(Marshall et al. 2011; Narum et al. 2007)

  • Consistently high Nb/N ratio

(Waples, personal communication)

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SLIDE 12

Snake River fall Chinook genetic diversity 2016 Return by PBT

500 1000 1500 2000 Ne

Hatchery and Natural Effective Population Size (Ne)

Lyons Ferry Broodstock Nez Perce Broodstock Wild Origin Fish at LGR

  • 1. No genetic differentiation between

Snake River hatchery to natural

Fst = 0.0003

Sample Size Ho He Polymorphic Loci Lyons Ferry Broodstock 1785 0.251 0.259 95.64% Nez Perce Broodstock 716 0.253 0.259 94.97% Wild Origin Fish at LGR 810 0.253 0.261 95.30%

  • 2. High levels of genetic diversity
  • 3. High Effective Population Size
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Snake River Fall Chinook Salmon Hatchery Program

Questions?