[PPT] - Skill assessment of the CSIRO multi-year Climate Analysis Forecast PowerPoint Presentation

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Skill assessment of the CSIRO multi-year Climate Analysis Forecast Ensemble (CAFE) system

CSIRO decadal climate forecasting project

Dougie Squire, James Risbey, Carly Tozer, Thomas Moore, James Munroe

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New project to understand and improve predictability on multi-year time scales
Use a variant of the GFDL CM2.1 ocean (MOM5) - atmosphere (AM2) - land (LM2)
sea ice (SIS) model
Focus on internal variability

The CSIRO system

Skill assessment of CSIRO’s CAFE system | Dougie Squire 2

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New project to understand and improve predictability on multi-year time scales
Use a variant of the GFDL CM2.1 ocean (MOM5) - atmosphere (AM2) - land (LM2)
sea ice (SIS) model
Focus on internal variability

The CSIRO system

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See O’Kane C1-03 (tomorrow)

Skill assessment of CSIRO’s CAFE system | Dougie Squire

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The CSIRO system

New project to understand and improve predictability on multi-year time scales
Use a variant of the GFDL CM2.1 ocean (MOM5) - atmosphere (AM2) - land (LM2)
sea ice (SIS) model
Focus on internal variability

Skill assessment of CSIRO’s CAFE system | Dougie Squire

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Fractional in-band variances of SLA

New project to understand and improve predictability on multi-year time scales
Use a variant of the GFDL CM2.1 ocean (MOM5) - atmosphere (AM2) - land (LM2)
sea ice (SIS) model
Focus on internal variability

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The CSIRO system

Monselesan et al. 2015 GRL

Skill assessment of CSIRO’s CAFE system | Dougie Squire

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Fractional in-band variances of SLA

New project to understand and improve predictability on multi-year time scales
Use a variant of the GFDL CM2.1 ocean (MOM5) - atmosphere (AM2) - land (LM2)
sea ice (SIS) model
Focus on internal variability

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The CSIRO system

Monselesan et al. 2015 GRL 1-2 years

Skill assessment of CSIRO’s CAFE system | Dougie Squire

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Fractional in-band variances of SLA

New project to understand and improve predictability on multi-year time scales
Use a variant of the GFDL CM2.1 ocean (MOM5) - atmosphere (AM2) - land (LM2)
sea ice (SIS) model
Focus on internal variability

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The CSIRO system

Monselesan et al. 2015 GRL 5-10 years

Skill assessment of CSIRO’s CAFE system | Dougie Squire

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diagnostics/verification software

Leverage emerging efforts towards best practices in big data and reproducibility
Towards a community effort
Dataset/filetype agnostic

+ James Munroe

Skill assessment of CSIRO’s CAFE system | Dougie Squire

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diagnostics/verification software

Leverage emerging efforts towards best practices in big data and reproducibility
Towards a community effort
Dataset/filetype agnostic

+ James Munroe

Skill assessment of CSIRO’s CAFE system | Dougie Squire

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diagnostics/verification software

Leverage emerging efforts towards best practices in big data and reproducibility
Towards a community effort
Dataset/filetype agnostic

+ James Munroe

Skill assessment of CSIRO’s CAFE system | Dougie Squire

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diagnostics/verification software

Skill assessment of CSIRO’s CAFE system | Dougie Squire

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diagnostics/verification software

5 x 32 CPU, 256 Gb VMs

Skill assessment of CSIRO’s CAFE system | Dougie Squire

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Skill assessment of CSIRO’s CAFÉ system | Dougie Squire 13

diagnostics/verification software

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2-year, 11-member hindcasts started monthly over 2002-2016
Only ocean observations assimilated
Bred-vector-initialised on sub-surface ocean temperature isosurface

corresponding to high in-band variance on 1-2 month time scales

Mean bias corrected (Stockdale 1997 MWR)

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CAFE-f1 hindcasts (today’s data)

Skill assessment of CSIRO’s CAFE system | Dougie Squire

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2-year, 11-member hindcasts started monthly over 2002-2016
Only ocean observations assimilated
Bred-vector-initialised on sub-surface ocean temperature isosurface

corresponding to high in-band variance on 1-2 month time scales

Mean bias corrected (Stockdale 1997 MWR)

15 Skill assessment of CSIRO’s CAFE system | Dougie Squire

CAFE-f1 hindcasts (today’s data)

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2-year, 11-member hindcasts started monthly over 2002-2016
Only ocean observations assimilated
Bred-vector-initialised on sub-surface ocean temperature isosurface

corresponding to high in-band variance on 1-2 month time scales

Mean bias corrected (Stockdale 1997 MWR)

See O’Kane C1-03 (tomorrow); and O’Kane et al. 2018 JC

16 Skill assessment of CSIRO’s CAFE system | Dougie Squire

CAFE-f1 hindcasts (today’s data)

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2-year, 11-member hindcasts started monthly over 2002-2016
Only ocean observations assimilated
Bred-vector-initialised on sub-surface ocean temperature isosurface

corresponding to high in-band variance on 1-2 month time scales

Mean bias corrected (Stockdale 1997 MWR)

See O’Kane C1-03 (tomorrow); and O’Kane et al. 2018 JC

17 Skill assessment of CSIRO’s CAFE system | Dougie Squire

CAFE-f1 hindcasts (today’s data)

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Temporal anomaly correlations of monthly SST

Skill assessment of CSIRO’s CAFE system | Dougie Squire

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Ranked probability skill score of tropical T2m

Skill assessment of CSIRO’s CAFE system | Dougie Squire

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Ranked probability skill score of tropical T2m

Forecast skill is strongly related to ENSO variability

Skill assessment of CSIRO’s CAFE system | Dougie Squire

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Ranked probability skill score of SE Australian T2m

Skill assessment of CSIRO’s CAFE system | Dougie Squire

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Ranked probability skill score of SE Australian T2m

Skill assessment of CSIRO’s CAFE system | Dougie Squire

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Ranked probability skill score of thermal wind

Skill assessment of CSIRO’s CAFE system | Dougie Squire

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Ranked probability skill score of thermal wind

Positive correlation with MEI (O’Kane et al. 2017 MWR)

Skill assessment of CSIRO’s CAFE system | Dougie Squire

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Conclusions

Skill assessment of CSIRO’s CAFE system | Dougie Squire

is a diagnostics/verification software package that we are building
Early CAFE system hindcasts indicate comparable skill to other systems
Prediction skill in Australia is strongly tied to the tropical ocean (ENSO) and to

the CAFE system’s ability to simulate relevant teleconnection processes Contact: Dougie.Squire@csiro.au

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Longitudinal WAF First two EOFs Longitudinal wave activity flux at 500hPa H500 EOFs

Free-running model diagnostics

Skill assessment of CSIRO’s CAFE system | Dougie Squire

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h500 anomaly composites for heavy Tasmanian rainfall

Skill assessment of CSIRO’s CAFE system | Dougie Squire

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Ensemble spread metrics

Talagrand of SE Australian T2m Goddard et al. ensemble spread metric, T2m

Skill assessment of CSIRO’s CAFE system | Dougie Squire

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Ranked probability skill score of tropical T2m

Skill assessment of CSIRO’s CAFE system | Dougie Squire

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Ranked probability skill score of tropical T2m

Skill assessment of CSIRO’s CAFE system | Dougie Squire

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Uncorrected tropical Pacific SST

Skill assessment of CSIRO’s CAFE system | Dougie Squire

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Uncorrected tropical Pacific SST

Skill assessment of CSIRO’s CAFE system | Dougie Squire

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Uncorrected tropical Pacific SST

Skill assessment of CSIRO’s CAFE system | Dougie Squire

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Uncorrected tropical Pacific SST

Skill assessment of CSIRO’s CAFE system | Dougie Squire

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Uncorrected tropical Pacific SST

Skill assessment of CSIRO’s CAFE system | Dougie Squire