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Skill assessment of the CSIRO multi-year Climate Analysis Forecast Ensemble (CAFE) system CSIRO decadal climate forecasting project Dougie Squire, James Risbey, Carly Tozer, Thomas Moore, James Munroe The CSIRO

  1. Skill assessment of the CSIRO multi-year Climate Analysis Forecast Ensemble (CAFE) system CSIRO decadal climate forecasting project Dougie Squire, James Risbey, Carly Tozer, Thomas Moore, James Munroe

  2. The CSIRO system • New project to understand and improve predictability on multi-year time scales • Use a variant of the GFDL CM2.1 ocean (MOM5) - atmosphere (AM2) - land (LM2) - sea ice (SIS) model • Focus on internal variability 2 Skill assessment of CSIRO’s CAFE system | Dougie Squire

  3. The CSIRO system • New project to understand and improve predictability on multi-year time scales • Use a variant of the GFDL CM2.1 ocean (MOM5) - atmosphere (AM2) - land (LM2) - sea ice (SIS) model See O’Kane C1-03 (tomorrow) • Focus on internal variability 3 Skill assessment of CSIRO’s CAFE system | Dougie Squire

  4. The CSIRO system • New project to understand and improve predictability on multi-year time scales • Use a variant of the GFDL CM2.1 ocean (MOM5) - atmosphere (AM2) - land (LM2) - sea ice (SIS) model • Focus on internal variability 4 Skill assessment of CSIRO’s CAFE system | Dougie Squire

  5. The CSIRO system • New project to understand and improve predictability on multi-year time scales • Use a variant of the GFDL CM2.1 ocean (MOM5) - atmosphere (AM2) - land (LM2) - sea ice (SIS) model • Focus on internal variability Monselesan et al. 2015 GRL Fractional in-band variances of SLA 5 Skill assessment of CSIRO’s CAFE system | Dougie Squire

  6. The CSIRO system • New project to understand and improve predictability on multi-year time scales • Use a variant of the GFDL CM2.1 ocean (MOM5) - atmosphere (AM2) - land (LM2) - sea ice (SIS) model • Focus on internal variability 1-2 years Monselesan et al. 2015 GRL Fractional in-band variances of SLA 6 Skill assessment of CSIRO’s CAFE system | Dougie Squire

  7. The CSIRO system • New project to understand and improve predictability on multi-year time scales • Use a variant of the GFDL CM2.1 ocean (MOM5) - atmosphere (AM2) - land (LM2) - sea ice (SIS) model • Focus on internal variability 5-10 years Monselesan et al. 2015 GRL Fractional in-band variances of SLA 7 Skill assessment of CSIRO’s CAFE system | Dougie Squire

  8. diagnostics/verification software • Leverage emerging efforts towards best practices in big data and reproducibility + James Munroe • Towards a community effort • Dataset/filetype agnostic 8 Skill assessment of CSIRO’s CAFE system | Dougie Squire

  9. diagnostics/verification software • Leverage emerging efforts towards best practices in big data and reproducibility + James Munroe • Towards a community effort • Dataset/filetype agnostic 9 Skill assessment of CSIRO’s CAFE system | Dougie Squire

  10. diagnostics/verification software • Leverage emerging efforts towards best practices in big data and reproducibility + James Munroe • Towards a community effort • Dataset/filetype agnostic 10 Skill assessment of CSIRO’s CAFE system | Dougie Squire

  11. diagnostics/verification software ����������� ������ ���������� 11 Skill assessment of CSIRO’s CAFE system | Dougie Squire

  12. diagnostics/verification software 5 x 32 CPU, 256 Gb VMs ����������� ������ ���������� 12 Skill assessment of CSIRO’s CAFE system | Dougie Squire

  13. diagnostics/verification software 13 Skill assessment of CSIRO’s CAFÉ system | Dougie Squire

  14. CAFE-f1 hindcasts (today’s data) • 2-year, 11-member hindcasts started monthly over 2002-2016 • Only ocean observations assimilated • Bred-vector-initialised on sub-surface ocean temperature isosurface corresponding to high in-band variance on 1-2 month time scales • Mean bias corrected (Stockdale 1997 MWR) 14 Skill assessment of CSIRO’s CAFE system | Dougie Squire

  15. CAFE-f1 hindcasts (today’s data) • 2-year, 11-member hindcasts started monthly over 2002-2016 • Only ocean observations assimilated • Bred-vector-initialised on sub-surface ocean temperature isosurface corresponding to high in-band variance on 1-2 month time scales • Mean bias corrected (Stockdale 1997 MWR) 15 Skill assessment of CSIRO’s CAFE system | Dougie Squire

  16. CAFE-f1 hindcasts (today’s data) • 2-year, 11-member hindcasts started monthly over 2002-2016 • Only ocean observations assimilated • Bred-vector-initialised on sub-surface ocean temperature isosurface corresponding to high in-band variance on 1-2 month time scales • Mean bias corrected (Stockdale 1997 MWR) See O’Kane C1-03 (tomorrow); and O’Kane et al. 2018 JC 16 Skill assessment of CSIRO’s CAFE system | Dougie Squire

  17. CAFE-f1 hindcasts (today’s data) • 2-year, 11-member hindcasts started monthly over 2002-2016 • Only ocean observations assimilated • Bred-vector-initialised on sub-surface ocean temperature isosurface corresponding to high in-band variance on 1-2 month time scales • Mean bias corrected (Stockdale 1997 MWR) See O’Kane C1-03 (tomorrow); and O’Kane et al. 2018 JC 17 Skill assessment of CSIRO’s CAFE system | Dougie Squire

  18. Temporal anomaly correlations of monthly SST 18 Skill assessment of CSIRO’s CAFE system | Dougie Squire

  19. Ranked probability skill score of tropical T 2m 19 Skill assessment of CSIRO’s CAFE system | Dougie Squire

  20. Ranked probability skill score of tropical T 2m Forecast skill is strongly related to ENSO variability 20 Skill assessment of CSIRO’s CAFE system | Dougie Squire

  21. Ranked probability skill score of SE Australian T 2m 21 Skill assessment of CSIRO’s CAFE system | Dougie Squire

  22. Ranked probability skill score of SE Australian T 2m 22 Skill assessment of CSIRO’s CAFE system | Dougie Squire

  23. Ranked probability skill score of thermal wind 23 Skill assessment of CSIRO’s CAFE system | Dougie Squire

  24. Ranked probability skill score of thermal wind Positive correlation with MEI (O’Kane et al. 2017 MWR) 24 Skill assessment of CSIRO’s CAFE system | Dougie Squire

  25. Conclusions • is a diagnostics/verification software package that we are building • Early CAFE system hindcasts indicate comparable skill to other systems • Prediction skill in Australia is strongly tied to the tropical ocean (ENSO) and to the CAFE system’s ability to simulate relevant teleconnection processes Contact: Dougie.Squire@csiro.au 25 Skill assessment of CSIRO’s CAFE system | Dougie Squire

  26. Free-running model diagnostics Longitudinal wave activity flux at 500hPa H500 EOFs Longitudinal WAF First two EOFs 26 Skill assessment of CSIRO’s CAFE system | Dougie Squire

  27. h500 anomaly composites for heavy Tasmanian rainfall 27 Skill assessment of CSIRO’s CAFE system | Dougie Squire

  28. Ensemble spread metrics Talagrand of SE Australian T 2m Goddard et al. ensemble spread metric, T 2m 28 Skill assessment of CSIRO’s CAFE system | Dougie Squire

  29. Ranked probability skill score of tropical T 2m 29 Skill assessment of CSIRO’s CAFE system | Dougie Squire

  30. Ranked probability skill score of tropical T 2m 30 Skill assessment of CSIRO’s CAFE system | Dougie Squire

  31. Uncorrected tropical Pacific SST 31 Skill assessment of CSIRO’s CAFE system | Dougie Squire

  32. Uncorrected tropical Pacific SST 32 Skill assessment of CSIRO’s CAFE system | Dougie Squire

  33. Uncorrected tropical Pacific SST 33 Skill assessment of CSIRO’s CAFE system | Dougie Squire

  34. Uncorrected tropical Pacific SST 34 Skill assessment of CSIRO’s CAFE system | Dougie Squire

  35. Uncorrected tropical Pacific SST 35 Skill assessment of CSIRO’s CAFE system | Dougie Squire

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