Skill assessment of the CSIRO multi-year Climate Analysis Forecast - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

skill assessment of the csiro multi year climate analysis
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Skill assessment of the CSIRO multi-year Climate Analysis Forecast - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Skill assessment of the CSIRO multi-year Climate Analysis Forecast Ensemble (CAFE) system CSIRO decadal climate forecasting project Dougie Squire, James Risbey, Carly Tozer, Thomas Moore, James Munroe The CSIRO


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Skill assessment of the CSIRO multi-year Climate Analysis Forecast Ensemble (CAFE) system

CSIRO decadal climate forecasting project

Dougie Squire, James Risbey, Carly Tozer, Thomas Moore, James Munroe

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  • New project to understand and improve predictability on multi-year time scales
  • Use a variant of the GFDL CM2.1 ocean (MOM5) - atmosphere (AM2) - land (LM2)
  • sea ice (SIS) model
  • Focus on internal variability

The CSIRO system

Skill assessment of CSIRO’s CAFE system | Dougie Squire 2

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  • New project to understand and improve predictability on multi-year time scales
  • Use a variant of the GFDL CM2.1 ocean (MOM5) - atmosphere (AM2) - land (LM2)
  • sea ice (SIS) model
  • Focus on internal variability

The CSIRO system

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See O’Kane C1-03 (tomorrow)

Skill assessment of CSIRO’s CAFE system | Dougie Squire

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The CSIRO system

  • New project to understand and improve predictability on multi-year time scales
  • Use a variant of the GFDL CM2.1 ocean (MOM5) - atmosphere (AM2) - land (LM2)
  • sea ice (SIS) model
  • Focus on internal variability

Skill assessment of CSIRO’s CAFE system | Dougie Squire

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Fractional in-band variances of SLA

  • New project to understand and improve predictability on multi-year time scales
  • Use a variant of the GFDL CM2.1 ocean (MOM5) - atmosphere (AM2) - land (LM2)
  • sea ice (SIS) model
  • Focus on internal variability

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The CSIRO system

Monselesan et al. 2015 GRL

Skill assessment of CSIRO’s CAFE system | Dougie Squire

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Fractional in-band variances of SLA

  • New project to understand and improve predictability on multi-year time scales
  • Use a variant of the GFDL CM2.1 ocean (MOM5) - atmosphere (AM2) - land (LM2)
  • sea ice (SIS) model
  • Focus on internal variability

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The CSIRO system

Monselesan et al. 2015 GRL 1-2 years

Skill assessment of CSIRO’s CAFE system | Dougie Squire

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Fractional in-band variances of SLA

  • New project to understand and improve predictability on multi-year time scales
  • Use a variant of the GFDL CM2.1 ocean (MOM5) - atmosphere (AM2) - land (LM2)
  • sea ice (SIS) model
  • Focus on internal variability

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The CSIRO system

Monselesan et al. 2015 GRL 5-10 years

Skill assessment of CSIRO’s CAFE system | Dougie Squire

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diagnostics/verification software

  • Leverage emerging efforts towards best practices in big data and reproducibility
  • Towards a community effort
  • Dataset/filetype agnostic

+ James Munroe

Skill assessment of CSIRO’s CAFE system | Dougie Squire

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diagnostics/verification software

  • Leverage emerging efforts towards best practices in big data and reproducibility
  • Towards a community effort
  • Dataset/filetype agnostic

+ James Munroe

Skill assessment of CSIRO’s CAFE system | Dougie Squire

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diagnostics/verification software

  • Leverage emerging efforts towards best practices in big data and reproducibility
  • Towards a community effort
  • Dataset/filetype agnostic

+ James Munroe

Skill assessment of CSIRO’s CAFE system | Dougie Squire

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diagnostics/verification software

Skill assessment of CSIRO’s CAFE system | Dougie Squire

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diagnostics/verification software

5 x 32 CPU, 256 Gb VMs

Skill assessment of CSIRO’s CAFE system | Dougie Squire

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diagnostics/verification software

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  • 2-year, 11-member hindcasts started monthly over 2002-2016
  • Only ocean observations assimilated
  • Bred-vector-initialised on sub-surface ocean temperature isosurface

corresponding to high in-band variance on 1-2 month time scales

  • Mean bias corrected (Stockdale 1997 MWR)

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CAFE-f1 hindcasts (today’s data)

Skill assessment of CSIRO’s CAFE system | Dougie Squire

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  • 2-year, 11-member hindcasts started monthly over 2002-2016
  • Only ocean observations assimilated
  • Bred-vector-initialised on sub-surface ocean temperature isosurface

corresponding to high in-band variance on 1-2 month time scales

  • Mean bias corrected (Stockdale 1997 MWR)

15 Skill assessment of CSIRO’s CAFE system | Dougie Squire

CAFE-f1 hindcasts (today’s data)

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  • 2-year, 11-member hindcasts started monthly over 2002-2016
  • Only ocean observations assimilated
  • Bred-vector-initialised on sub-surface ocean temperature isosurface

corresponding to high in-band variance on 1-2 month time scales

  • Mean bias corrected (Stockdale 1997 MWR)

See O’Kane C1-03 (tomorrow); and O’Kane et al. 2018 JC

16 Skill assessment of CSIRO’s CAFE system | Dougie Squire

CAFE-f1 hindcasts (today’s data)

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  • 2-year, 11-member hindcasts started monthly over 2002-2016
  • Only ocean observations assimilated
  • Bred-vector-initialised on sub-surface ocean temperature isosurface

corresponding to high in-band variance on 1-2 month time scales

  • Mean bias corrected (Stockdale 1997 MWR)

See O’Kane C1-03 (tomorrow); and O’Kane et al. 2018 JC

17 Skill assessment of CSIRO’s CAFE system | Dougie Squire

CAFE-f1 hindcasts (today’s data)

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Temporal anomaly correlations of monthly SST

Skill assessment of CSIRO’s CAFE system | Dougie Squire

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Ranked probability skill score of tropical T2m

Skill assessment of CSIRO’s CAFE system | Dougie Squire

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Ranked probability skill score of tropical T2m

Forecast skill is strongly related to ENSO variability

Skill assessment of CSIRO’s CAFE system | Dougie Squire

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Ranked probability skill score of SE Australian T2m

Skill assessment of CSIRO’s CAFE system | Dougie Squire

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Ranked probability skill score of SE Australian T2m

Skill assessment of CSIRO’s CAFE system | Dougie Squire

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Ranked probability skill score of thermal wind

Skill assessment of CSIRO’s CAFE system | Dougie Squire

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Ranked probability skill score of thermal wind

Positive correlation with MEI (O’Kane et al. 2017 MWR)

Skill assessment of CSIRO’s CAFE system | Dougie Squire

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Conclusions

Skill assessment of CSIRO’s CAFE system | Dougie Squire

  • is a diagnostics/verification software package that we are building
  • Early CAFE system hindcasts indicate comparable skill to other systems
  • Prediction skill in Australia is strongly tied to the tropical ocean (ENSO) and to

the CAFE system’s ability to simulate relevant teleconnection processes Contact: Dougie.Squire@csiro.au

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Longitudinal WAF First two EOFs Longitudinal wave activity flux at 500hPa H500 EOFs

Free-running model diagnostics

Skill assessment of CSIRO’s CAFE system | Dougie Squire

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h500 anomaly composites for heavy Tasmanian rainfall

Skill assessment of CSIRO’s CAFE system | Dougie Squire

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Ensemble spread metrics

Talagrand of SE Australian T2m Goddard et al. ensemble spread metric, T2m

Skill assessment of CSIRO’s CAFE system | Dougie Squire

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Ranked probability skill score of tropical T2m

Skill assessment of CSIRO’s CAFE system | Dougie Squire

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Ranked probability skill score of tropical T2m

Skill assessment of CSIRO’s CAFE system | Dougie Squire

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Uncorrected tropical Pacific SST

Skill assessment of CSIRO’s CAFE system | Dougie Squire

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Uncorrected tropical Pacific SST

Skill assessment of CSIRO’s CAFE system | Dougie Squire

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Uncorrected tropical Pacific SST

Skill assessment of CSIRO’s CAFE system | Dougie Squire

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Uncorrected tropical Pacific SST

Skill assessment of CSIRO’s CAFE system | Dougie Squire

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Uncorrected tropical Pacific SST

Skill assessment of CSIRO’s CAFE system | Dougie Squire