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RGS Annual Conference 2016 SIM4NEXUS: Dragan A. Savic & A novel approach towards improving decision-making for Lydia S. Vamvakeridou- resource efficiency, based on the Lyroudia water-land-food-energy-climate Centre for Water Systems

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SIM4NEXUS:

A novel approach towards improving decision-making for resource efficiency, based on the water-land-food-energy-climate Nexus

RGS Annual Conference 2016

Dragan A. Savic & Lydia S. Vamvakeridou- Lyroudia Centre for Water Systems University of Exeter

01/09/2016

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SIM4NEXUS project

H2020 project SIM4NEXUS
Sustainable Integrated Management FOR the

NEXUS of water-land-food-energy-climate for a resource-efficient Europe

Grant of € 7.9M
4 year project (2016-2020)
Started June 2016
26 partners from 16 European countries
Co-ordination: Wageningen University & Research
Core team: University of Exeter, University of Thessaly

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Project Objectives

SIM4NEXUS has four objectives:

1. To adopt existing knowledge and develop new

expertise on the Nexus,

2. To reduce uncertainties of how policies,

governance and institutions affect complex changing environmental systems,

3. To showcase the implementation by a network of

regional and national case studies in Europe

4. To valorise the project outputs by suitable business

models.

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The Nexus for resource efficiency

Target: Resource efficiency Five Nexus components

Water
Energy
Food
Land use
Climate

under Climate Change

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The Nexus for resource efficiency

Target: Resource efficiency Instruments:

Technology
Economic development
Social cohesion
Social innovation
Governance
Policy

under Climate Change

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Previous related research: Thematic models

Several well established and developed “thematic” models” do exist:

Simulating some (but not all five) Nexus components
At some scales (e.g. Global)
Not necessarily targeting resource efficiency
Some targeting GHG
Or biodiversity
Or the economy
But not all…

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Thematic models in SIM4NEXUS

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The main idea(s)

Using the “thematic models” to identify the links and the gaps in

the Nexus

With diverse Data Sources and Climate change scenarios
Running the thematic models
Combining outputs from the thematic models using Complexity

Science methodologies:

System Dynamics mainly (previous expertise)
Cellular Automata
Fuzzy Pattern Recognition
Material Flow Analysis
To develop “Nexus” models for specific Case Studies and scenarios
To develop a Serious Game for education and decision makers

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Concept

before integration partial integration Nexus with SIM4NEXUS

Common prac ce with silo-thinking, fragmented policy and decision making and R&D support Decision making par ally integra ng Nexus components with high uncertainty about results SIM4NEXUS approach: NEXUS- compliant R&D and policy-making

thema c models knowledge policy & decision making complexity science producing integrated knowledge water energy food land climate with high uncertainty All Nexus components interac ng with reduced uncertainty

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Structure

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The Serious Game

SIM4NEXUS to develop a Serious Game

With an Innovative Knowledge Elicitation Engine (KEE)
Based on Aqua Republica (an existing serious game

focusing on water developed by DHI)

http://www.dhigroup.com/upload/publications/scribd/172

629015-Exploring-the-World-of-Aqua-Republica-DHI-Case- Story.pdf

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Different Case Studies

To achieve a detailed understanding of the scientific

interrelations between the components of the Nexus.

To represent different spatial scales (regional, national,

continental and global)

To assess the benefits of synergies in policies when decision

makers address the Nexus concerns.

To assess relevant near-term policy initiatives This assessment will

be accompanied by sensitivity analysis in all the case studies, in

rder to reduce uncertainties and increase the reliability of

each proposed scenario.

To propose the potential for transferability of the case study to
ther regions and countries.
As test beds of the models and the Serious Game

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Case Studies

With Local stakeholders

3 at regional level
5 at national level
2 transboundary

At higher level (educational)

1 at European level
1 at Global level

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Progress

This 4-year Project started in June 2016
Nexus interlinkages are being defined
Case Studies detailed descriptions under way
Questionnaires/Interviews with stakeholders
First Case Study (fast track-exploratory) started (Sardinia), based
n previous work
Emphasis on data exchange chain
First results expected by the end of 2016

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For further information please consult www.sim4nexus.eu, follow us at @SIM4NEXUS

Thanks for your attention!

D.Savic@exeter.ac.uk L.S.Vamvakeridou-Lyroudia@exeter.ac.uk floor.brouwer@wur.nl sim4nexus@wur.nl This is an ict4water cluster project www.ict4water.eu