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Ladies & Poli,cs: A Conversa,on and Call to Ac,on to Engage, Educate, and Empower Black Women Voters September 13, 2019 Celinda Lake Lake Research Partners Washington, DC | Berkeley, CA | New York, NY lakeresearch.com 202.776.9066 Black

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Ladies & Poli,cs: A Conversa,on and Call to Ac,on to Engage, Educate, and Empower Black Women Voters

September 13, 2019

Celinda Lake

Lake Research Partners

Washington, DC | Berkeley, CA | New York, NY lakeresearch.com 202.776.9066

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Black voters—and the rising American electorate, more broadly—is expanding dramaGcally, comprising ever larger shares of the total electorate in presidenGal

  • elecGons. Much of the overall growth has been fueled by Millennial voters and voters of

color.

61.2% 55.8% 51.7% 46.5% 40.5% 6.5% 12.5% 16.9% 22.8% 21.5%

1.9%

5.8% 11.1% 12.3% 13.4% 12.4% 13.4% 6.0% 7.4% 8.4% 9.2% 10.3%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

2004 2008 2012 2016 2020

Share of electorate, presidenGal elecGons

Non-RAE Millennials Gen Z African American La,nx

2

Source: CPS November 2018

(ProjecGon)

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Black voters—Black women especially—voted for Democrats by overwhelming margins in the recent midterm elecGons, and were once again a key reason for the Party’s electoral

  • success. Maintaining these margins while also increasing turnout will be crucial ahead of

2020.

3

Source: hXps://www.cnn.com/elecGon/2018/exit-polls

39 60 49 49 88 12 92 7 63 34 73 26

DEM GOP DEM GOP DEM GOP DEM GOP DEM GOP DEM GOP

Midterm Vote By Race/Gender

White Men (35%) White Women (37%) Black Men (5%) Black Women (6%) La,no Men (5%) La,no Women (6%) 2016 Vote Among AA Women

94% Clinton 4% Trump 2% Other/3rd Party

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82 14 4 67 26 16 78 17 6

Extremely likely Very likely Somewhat likely

Total Black men Black women Whites

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Likelihood to vote

7 23 1 69

Republican Lean Republican Undecided Lean Democrat Democrat

2020 Generic Congressional Ballot

Among Black women

Source: LRP/Tarrance Group BaXle Ground Poll 1010 Likely 2020 Voters NaGonwide

Black women overwhelmingly prefer Democrats to Republicans on the generic 2020 Congressional ballot, though with more than one-in-five undecided, and engagement levels that trail white voters’ slightly, generaGng and maintaining enthusiasm will be an ongoing priority for campaigns.

84 14 3

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MobilizaGon remains vital in engaging and turning out voters in any elecGon. In 2016, we saw a decline in voter turnout among black voters, as well as non-white voters as a whole. The decline in voter turnout in 2016 from 2012 is aXributed to less mobilizaGon, among other factors.

Source: Pew Research Center

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While black women fluctuated when it came to their view of the country’s direc9on under President Obama, they have shi=ed to being solidly nega9ve under President Trump.

Direc,on of Country (Among Black Women)

46 37 52 34 1 4 8 31 48 41 57 98 91 90 23 15 7 9 1 5 2

25 50 75 100 125

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Right Direc,on Wrong Track Unsure

Source: Lake Research/Tarrance Group, BaXleground Poll

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7

24 35 25 15

19 36 16 16 28 48 16 8 Very worried Somewhat worried Not too worried Not at all worried

Total White Hispanic Black men Black women How Worried Are You About a Possible Economic Downturn?

27 41 7 22 62 19 14 5

Source: LRP/Tarrance Group BaXle Ground Poll 1010 Likely 2020 Voters NaGonwide

Black women are noGceably more nervous about the current trajectory of the naGonal economy than other demographic subgroups, with over 6-in-10 very worried about an imminent economic downturn.

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29 21 18 11

Racial Inequality Healthcare Growing gap between the rich and poor The Economy

Top Issues among Black women

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14 16 11 7 7 11 22 22 81 64 79 68 85 74 51 56

Jobs The economy Taxes EducaGon Healthcare ImmigraGon NaGonal Security Special Interests Republicans Democrats Which party do you trust more on the following issues?

Among Black women

Don’t Know

5 16 25 5 10 14

30%

Source: LRP/Tarrance Group BaXle Ground Poll 1010 Likely 2020 Voters NaGonwide Source: Sep 17-Oct2 2018 American Values Survey of 2,509 adults (age 18 and up) living in the United States

When it comes to their issue agenda, Black women place racial inequality on par with economic concerns as their most pressing prioriGes, followed closely by concerns over health care. When assessing the two parGes on the issues, Black women prefer Democrats substanGally across the board, though the margins are narrower on naGonal security and dealing with special interests.

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Black voters across gender, age, and party lines strongly support candidates with clear plans aimed at advancing economic opportuniGes and improved working condiGons for Black Americans. Black voters as a whole also want to see policies aimed at materially improving wages, benefits, and job training, as well as fighGng employment and wage discriminaGon.

Source: Hart Research and Brossard Research on behalf of the Black Economic Alliance, N=1003 Black adults naGonwide, including 503 interviews conducted by phone and 500 conducted online, May 17-28, 2019.

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58 7 29 7

Favor Oppose Not sure Refused

80 13 7

Support Oppose Undecided Moving Funds from IncarceraGon to Community-Based Public Safety Programs

Among Black women

Generate 100% of the naGons' energy from clean sources within 10 years

Among Black women

10

Medicare for All Healthcare Plan

Among all Black voters

Source: LRP October 2017 poll of 800 likely voters naGonwide Source: LRP survey of 1000 likely voters naGonwide Source: LRP survey 700 likely voters naGonwide

86 6 8

Support Oppose Undecided

Black women voters register commanding support for criminal jusGce reforms that move money away from incarceraGon and towards community-based public safety programs. Support is also quite high for a Medicare for All health care system. Though support is less intense, in part because the plans around a Green New Deal are less defined, a solid majority of Black women voters also supports transiGoning towards 100% clean energy over the next 10 years.

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Across the country, black women are running for higher office—and

  • winning. Black women

ran House campaigns in 21 different states in

  • 2018. The women who

won are widely distributed throughout the U.S., which suggests there are divergent routes and offices for aspiring candidates. Where Black Women Vote, Representa,on Follows

US House of RepresentaGves, 2018

Source: Metropolitan Policy Program at Brookings. hXps://www.brookings.edu/research/black-women-are-looking-forward-to-the-2020-elecGons/

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City Total Popula,on Black Popula,on Black Popula,on Share Total Black Women 18+ AND % Share of Black Vo,ng Age Popula,on for Black women Birmingham (AL) 212,424 152,952 72% 223,657 54.9% Mobile (AL) 193,717 98,017 50.6% 166,871 55.3% Montgomery (AL) 201,717 119,783 59.4% 102,188 55.1% Albany (GA) 75,657 54,673 72.3% 56,772 54.3% Atlanta (GA) 456,378 239,005 52.4% 51,114 55.5% Savannah (GA) 144,717 78,344 54.1% 44,469 55.9% Detroit (MI) 683,443 544,427 79.7% 32,110 55.5% Flint (MI) 98,918 53,757 54.3% 29,019 55.2% Rocky Mount (NC) 56,175 35,248 62.7% 16,227 52.5% DeSoto (TX) 51,854 36,133 69.7% 14,563 57.3%

Majority-black ciGes remain an influenGal block

  • f black electoral power for

statewide races. Thirty-four states will hold senate races in 2020. Several of the most compeGGve of these states contain at least one majority-black city (with at least 50,000 residents) where voter turnout could significantly impact the outcomes of those races.

Source: Metropolitan Policy Program at Brookings.

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Final Thoughts

  • 1. Candidates can and should run on a plaform that addresses Black women’s top expressed concerns: racial inequality, health

care, and economic jus,ce. These issues appeal to and help define a progressive coali,on of voters and supporters.

  • 2. Building upon the momentum of Black women’s efforts in the 2018 midterms, a 2020 plaform that includes efforts to end voter

suppression, strengthen the Affordable Care Act and promote income equality can help promote Black candidates and progressive victories.

  • 3. Poli,cal par,es should invest in candidates running for office in majority-black ci,es within states hos,ng senate races in 2020,

as there is a posi,ve correla,on with the concentra,on of Black residents in a district and Black women’s electoral success.

  • 4. Mayoral victories among the 100 most populated ci,es, and unexpected wins in congressional districts in which blacks are not

the majority in 2018, show that Black women are viable in different districts with different demographics. Recent and past successes suggest Black women are crea,ng more and different routes to elected office.

  • 5. Black female candidates who can advance issues around racial inequality, health care, and economic jus,ce will strongly

influence the outcome of 2020 races, as occurred in 2018.

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Source: Brookings InsGtute

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Celinda Lake clake@lakeresearch.com

Washington, DC | Berkeley, CA | New York, NY

LakeResearch.com 202.776.9066