Seizing the Moment: Priorities, Options, and Tools for Enhancing NDC Ambition Berlin, June 14 th
10 POINTS ON MITIGATION AMBITION Background The findings of the IPCC 1.5SR clearly underscore that greater ambition is urgently needed as current NDCs are inconsistent with the temperature goal of the Paris Agreement. Objectives The purpose of this paper is to • define what ambition means in the context of LTS, NDCs and SDGs • inform activities of the NDC Cluster, the NDC Partnership and beyond on how to support increased mitigation ambition in new and updated NDCs as well as in LTS. The paper formulates 10 points on mitigation ambition and includes recommendations on ways to support ambition raising through international cooperation.
10 POINTS ON MITIGATION AMBITION Remember what all Parties to the Paris Agreement have agreed to • Parties to individually contribute their highest possible mitigation ambition • Communicate new/updated NDCs by 2020 • Formulate LTS, mindful of the LTTG, by 2020 Urgency to scale up ambition is demonstrated by best available science • Worst impacts of climate change can be avoided by limiting warming to 1.5°C • Current NDCs are not consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C • Need to use critical window of opportunity between now and 2020
10 POINTS ON MITIGATION AMBITION Full transformation is needed across all sectors • Transformative changes are required: decarbonise all countries and all sectors • Sector transformations imply major and timely shift of investments • Some transformations are well underway: shift to RE-based electricity A long-term and whole-economy view is essential • Development of LTS is critical to understand and define short-term action • LTS provide predictability to sectoral stakeholders • Without LTS likelihood of stranded assets and sector lock-in will be significant
10 POINTS ON MITIGATION AMBITION Incrementalism risks the Paris Agreement goal slipping out of reach • If focus is on implementing current NDCs, the LTTG is out of reach • Many of current NDCs present policy as usual instead of highest possible ambition • Incremental bottom up target setting needs to align with Paris-compatible pathways Higher ambition brings sustainable development benefits already in the short term • Mitigation actions are often synergistic with the achievement of SDGs • Understanding the SD implications of climate ambition is critical to manage the transition process
10 POINTS ON MITIGATION AMBITION All countries matter • Each tonne of GHG matters now to avoid the worst impacts • CBDR means some need to decarbonize faster • There is no trade-off between ambitious mitigation and economic development Some countries need to support others • Countries with higher capacities and responsibility support the transition of others • They should also make deep emission cuts faster to bring down the costs for others • Focus support on translating NDCs into investment strategies and bringing NDCs in line with the Paris long-term temperature goal
10 POINTS ON MITIGATION AMBITION All financial flows need to be made Paris-compatible • Low-carbon investments remain way below identified opportunities • Paris-compatibility as condition in all fields of development cooperation • Remove fossil subsidies and introduce price and non-price policy instruments This task can only be achieved by working together • Donors help to enhance institutional, human and knowledge capacity • Provide evidence to support the dialogue with those affected by sector transformations • Clarify investment and support needs together and share experience among equals
10 POINTS ON MITIGATION AMBITION https://climateanalytics.org/blog/2019/centred-on-science-how-the-ipcc-can-guide-mitigation-action/
10 POINTS ON MITIGATION AMBITION
10 POINTS ON MITIGATION AMBITION http://ambitiontoaction.net/scan_tool/
10 POINTS ON MITIGATION AMBITION Key message Ambitious 2020 NDCs informed by long-term strategies and aligned with the Paris long-term temperature goal will help achieving the sustainable development goals. Thank you for your attention Jan Sindt Lukas Kahlen Climate Policy Analyst Climate Policy Analyst Climate Analytics NewClimate Institute jan.sindt@climateanalytics.org l.kahlen@newclimate.org Activity implemented as part of the IKI NDC Support Cluster Download the paper
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