Ag e nda I te m G.1.b Supple me nta l Pub lic Pre se nta tio n 1 June 2020 SARDI NE RE BUI L DI NG PL AN 1
CPSMT Re po r t ~ Sar dine Re building We tha nk the Ma na g e me nt T e a m fo r its ha rd wo rk to hig hlig ht ke y issue s (and c halle nge s ) re : sa rdine re b uilding pla n. F o r e xa mple : CPS stoc ks ar e dr ive n pr imar ily by e nvir onme ntal for c ing, e ve n without fishing Unde r c urre nt HCR, fishing mor tality is unlike ly to have a substantial e ffe c t o n the po pula tio n “ It is impossible to de ve lo p a r e building pro g ra m… guar e a stoc k to MSY le ve l ante e d to r e stor in 10 ye ar s, e ve n with no fishing .” Many r ic tions tha t mig ht b e c o nside re d …to e str mo dify fishing a c tivitie s a t lo w sto c k size have alr e ady be e n imple me nte d: (e .g . the dire c te d fishe ry ha s b e e n c lo se d fo r 5 ye a rs, sha rp re duc tio ns in inc ide nta l c a tc h ra te a nd T AC imple me nte d in 2019) A r e building pr o gr am may be de fine d implic itly in c ur r e nt sar dine HCR 2
Range o f Alte r native s Alte r native 1 {sta tus q uo } ~ Allowing fishing a s unde r c urre nt HCR ha s ne g lig ib le impa c t o n sto c k b ut ke e ps fishe r ie s and industr y alive Curre nt HCR is a de - fac to r e building plan Alte r native 2 ~ ze r ve st sc e na rio o har “ i.e . c o mple te c lo sure o f live b ait industry [targ e ting sardine ], e liminatio n o f inc ide ntal landing s in o the r fishe rie s suc h as Pac ific mac ke re l, marke t sq uid, no rthe rn anc ho vy and Pac ific whiting , and c lo sure o f the small sc ale fishe ry ”. Alt. 2 would pr e c ipitate e c onomic c r isis ~ But would NOT GUARANT E E sar dine r e c ove r y 5% har ve st r ate (e .g. 1,000 mt for all use s) = de ath by a thousand c uts 3
Analytic al appr o ac he s: E vide nc e o f Re c r uitme nt & Abundanc e T ha nks to Co unc il suppo rt fo r o ur ”dire c te d fishing ” E F P, NMF S a ppro ve d it a nd we a re pro duc ing ne w e vide nc e : Sma lle st = YOY 70-90g = 1yr 90-110g = 2 yr 122g = 4 yr 200g + = 5-6 yr Ba se d o n Butle r e t a l 1993 Ca lCOF I & R.Pa rrish mo de l Sa mple fro m 32 to n la nding in Mo nte re y o n 6/ 8/ 20 4
April 2020 te stimo ny Co nflic t is be twe e n what fishe r me n say is o ut the r e , base d o n what the y se e , and what bio lo gists say, base d o n insuffic ie nt sc ie nc e 6,000 to ns sa rdine o b se rve d in 60 ft. wa te r ne a r Se a l Be a c h – 61 de g . Wa te r 5 2019 Spring Ae ria l E F P
April 2020 te stimo ny 30-60 gr am Sar dine s ° Ca pture d 3/ 26/ 19 a s pa rt o f 30-to n po int se t ne a r Ga vio ta , a b o ve Sa nta Ba rb a ra ~ Ma ny la rg e sa rdine sc ho o ls ° Mo re e vide nc e o f re c ruitme nt 6
Re : the Re building Analysis tainty : We have se r ious c onc e r ns r e : unc e r Re b uilding pro je c tio ns b a se d o n 2020 sa rdine a sse ssme nt No e vide nc e o f re c ruitme nt No ne w fishe ry a g e da ta sinc e 2015 ” Histor ic ” re c ruitme nt o nly fro m 2005-2018, inc luding 4 ye a rs o f de c lining pro duc tivity a nd 8 ye a rs o f re pro duc tive fa ilure ~12 of 18 of ye a rs in mode l (2/ 3) ha d low re c ruitme nt Re b uilde r mo de l c a nno t inc o rpo ra te e nviro nme nta l e ffe c ts Curre nt HCR (i.e . te mp. fra c tio n a nd 150,000 mt c uto ff) no t a pplie d How c a n the Counc il c onside r e vide nc e of re c ruitme nt not c urre ntly inc lude d in the stoc k a sse ssme nt or re building mode ls? SSC re c o mme nda tio n: use a sto c k-re c ruitme nt re la tio nship to g e ne ra te future re c ruitme nt (ra the r tha n sa mpling re c ruitme nts fro m mo de l time se rie s) Without re c ruitme nt, re building mode l a nd a na lysis would be ne g a tive ly bia se d 7
Re : So c io -E c o no mic Impac t Analysis L ive Ba it F ishe ry ~ I na b ility to la nd sa rdine s (Alte rna tive 2) wo uld c urta il a lmo st 5,000 jo b s, $602 millio n in sa le s impa c ts, $222 millio n in inc o me a nd $309 millio n in g ro ss do me stic pro duc t ( SAC pub lic c o mme nt ) Comme rc ia l sa rdine fishe ry: We re c omme nd soc io- e c onomic impa c ts of sa rdine fishe ry a na lyze d sta te by sta te e xte nding ba c k to 2007 ( b e fo re pre ma ture se a so n c lo sure s ). Also inc lude impa c ts to fishe rie s tha t c a tc h sa rdine s inc ide nta lly (i.e . squid, a nc hovy, whiting ) E c onomic impor tanc e of Sar dine fishe r y in CA ~ age 2000- 2007 ( la st ye a r b e fo re pre ma ture se a so n c lo sure s Ave r b e g a n ) sar dine s = 38.1% of total CPS c atc h (inc luding squid) ~ mo re tha n a third o f CA’ s “3 le g g e d sto o l” o f susta ina b ility (CWPA pub lic c o mme nt ~ So urc e : T MP ) a b le 2.1.1-1 CPS F CA we tfish industr y ne e ds sar dine s to sur vive ! 8
Impo r tanc e o f CA We tfish Industr y to CA Until re c e nt ye a rs, CA’ s c o mple x o f o f CPS fishe rie s pro duc e d 80+% of volume , 37% doc kside value o f to ta l sta te wide c o mme rc ia l fishe ry ha rve st I mpo rta nt to ma ny ha rb o r c o mmunitie s Vo lume is e sse ntia l to ma inta in infra struc ture , jo b s We tfish % of T otal We tfish % of T otal Por t Por t L andings Por t XV Value 97.5% 76.3% Monte r e y Har bor 96.2% 66.3% Moss L anding 98.7% 82% (sq uid) Ve ntur a 99.9% 99.9% Por t Hue ne me 99.6% 93.4% San Pe dr o 97.7% 81.4% T e r minal Island Contr ibution to State wide 82% 37% 9 L andings
F ig ure 3.4.14. Re g iona l la nding s by we ig ht a nd va lue , with 12- ye a r tre nds a nd a ve ra g e proportions for e a c h ma jor We st Coa st ma na g e me nt g roup, 2000- 2011. (Ma ps c ourte sy of c o syste m Pla n p.72 2013 10 IN . Murdoc k E nvironme nta l, da ta sourc e : Pa c F Pa c ific Co a st F ishe ry E
CA So c io -E c o no mic Impac ts ~ 2 “ Pac ific sardine is histo ric ally o ne o f the to p te n hig he st value d c o mme rc ial fishe rie s in Califo rnia. State wide , the c o mme rc ial Pac ific Sardine c lo sure in 2015 re sulte d in a to tal e x-ve sse l value o f o nly $343,148, whic h is 90% age o f $3,504,098 . I n 2016, le ss than the 2010-14 ave r the c lo sure re sulte d in a to tal e x-ve sse l value o f o nly $95,657, whic h is 96% le ss than the 2011-15 ave rag e o f $2,711,679.” (L t. Go v. Gavin Ne wso m) T he Se c re ta ry o f Co mme rc e a ppro ve d Ca lifo rnia ’ s re q ue st fo r disa ste r re lie f fo r the sa rdine fishe ry fo r 2015- 16 a nd 2017-19. Sar dine s ar e foundation of CA’s we tfish industry 11
CA So c io -E c o no mic Impac ts ~ 3 Ye ar Sar dine Pounds lande d in Califor nia Value of Califor nia Por ts L andings 2007 178,476,460 lb s (80,956.4 mt) $8,206,936 (pe ak ) 2010 74,203,757 lb s (33,658.6 mt) $4,303,644 2011 61,097,986 lb s (27,713.7 mt) $5,390,048 2012 50,802,762 lb s (23,044 mt) $4,321,171 2013 15,594,475 lb s (7,073.6 mt) $1,501,919 2014 17,125,439 lb s (7,768 mt) $2,000,814 2015 3,751,035 lb s (1,701.5 mt) $343,148 2016 954,217 lb s (432.8 mt) $95,657 2017 952,891 lb s (432.2 mt) $61,453 2018 720,480 lb s (326.8 mt) $77,458 12
In Summar y ~ Ple ase c o nside r : Sa rdine a b unda nc e is drive n prima rily b y e nviro nme nta l fo rc ing ; no g ua ra nte e d time line to re b uild Curta iling fishing unlike ly to be ne fit re c ove ry ( CPSMT Re po rt ) MSA a llo ws fle xib ility in re b uilding pla ns: pe rmits dire c te d fishing to c o ntinue F urthe r re stric tio ns wo uld pre c ipita te so c io -e c o no mic c risis Re po rt sta te s: “ T CPSMT he c o mb inatio n o f spawning b io mass b uffe r and re duc e d harve st rate s…me ans that a re b uilding plan fo r o ve rfishe d [sardine ] may b e de fine d implic itly.” (We be lie ve ) the re building pla n a lre a dy e xists: e mbe dde d in the c urre nt HCR Ple a se support Mod.Alte rna tive 1 (ABC) or Alte rna tive 1 (ACT ~ sta tus quo) a s the Pre limina ry Pre fe rre d Alte rna tive . 13
e me nts : MSA Re gulato r y r e quir MSA re q uire s e nd to o ve rfishing “imme dia te ly” fo r o ve rfishe d sto c ks… BUT ovide s fle xibility to c o nside r b io lo g ic a l q uirks (i.e . MSA also pr sto c ks with unusua l life histo ry tra its) sa rdine “b o o m & b ust” c yc le s a re a n e xc e ption to the (10- ye a r) rule MSA doe s not r e quir e instant r e c ove r y OY is lo ng -te rm g o a l MSA doe s allow dir e c te d fishing during re b uilding MSA a lso r e quir e s Counc il to c onside r fishing c ommunitie s, not only biology, whe n de ve loping r e building plan Ple ase be c r e ative 14
Que stio ns? 15
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