San Antonio, Texas Housing Analysis Primary Work Elements - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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San Antonio, Texas Housing Analysis Primary Work Elements - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Jan 09, 2023 306 likes •569 views

Rental and For-Sale Housing Analysis Fall 2013 San Antonio, Texas Housing Analysis Primary Work Elements Established a Primary Market Area - PMA (study area) Analyzed more than 100 demographic & economic metrics Conducted

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San Antonio, Texas

Rental and For-Sale Housing Analysis Fall 2013

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Housing Analysis

Primary Work Elements

  • Established a Primary Market Area - PMA (study area)
  • Analyzed more than 100 demographic & economic metrics
  • Conducted approximately a dozen stakeholder interviews
  • Surveyed over 34 rental properties the PMA
  • Evaluated PMA’s historical for-sale data on 913 units sold between

8/2011 – 8/2013 & 141 available for-sale units

  • Completed a housing gap analysis by tenure and income
  • Evaluated various “other housing factors” affecting the housing

market (i.e. community services, crime, drive times, etc.)

  • Provided recommendations as to product types that should be

considered for development

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Primary Market Area

PMA – The smallest area from which most support will originate PMA Based Upon:

  • Interviews
  • Demographics
  • Drive-times
  • Mobility Patterns
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Demographic Highlights

 After a decline of 6.0% b/w 2000-2010, increased 2.8% b/w 2010-

2012

 Projected 7.5% growth b/w 2012-2017, adding 5,347 people

(exceeding 2000 total population)

Population by Year

75,352 68,931 70,864 76,211

63,000 65,000 67,000 69,000 71,000 73,000 75,000 77,000 2000 2010 2012 2017

Year Population

San Antonio PMA - Population Trends

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Population by Age

0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% <25 25 - 34 35 - 44 45 - 54 55 - 64 65 - 74 75+

Age Range Share 2010 2012 2017

 All age cohorts projected to

grow in total population between 2012-17

 Greatest population growth

among ages 65 to 74 (1,372

  • r 29.2%)

San Antonio PMA - Population Trends

Demographic Highlights

 Population shares by age

will decline among young, increase among old

 Greatest population share

growth among ages 65 to 74 (1,372 or 29.2%); Greatest declines among age 25 or younger

Population by Age

2,500 5,000 7,500 10,000 12,500 15,000 17,500 20,000 22,500 25,000 <25 25 - 34 35 - 44 45 - 54 55 - 64 65 - 74 75+

Age Range Population 2010 2012 2017

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Households by Year

27,560 25,094 24,233 24,715

22,000 23,000 24,000 25,000 26,000 27,000 28,000 2000 2010 2012 2017

Year Households

 After a decline of 6.0% b/w 2000-2010, increased 2.8% b/w 2010-

2012

 Projected 7.5% growth b/w 2012-2017, adding 5,347 people

(exceeding 2000 total population) San Antonio PMA - Household Trends

Demographic Highlights

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Demographic Highlights

Household Heads by Age

0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% <25 25 - 34 35 - 44 45 - 54 55 - 64 65 - 74 75+

Age Range Share 2010 2012 2017

San Antonio PMA - Household Trends

Household Heads by Age

500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 5,500 6,000 <25 25 - 34 35 - 44 45 - 54 55 - 64 65 - 74 75+

Age Range Households 2010 2012 2017

  • Households (HH) by age

cohort are projected to grow among all but the 25- 34 age group

  • Greatest growth among 65-

74 and 55-64

  • The shares of HHs are

declining among younger HHs (< age55), but increasing among older HHs (55 to 74)

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Demographic Highlights

Shares of households (HH) by income are projected to increase among higher income households ($60k+) Median HH incomes are projected to increase by 6.6% between 2012 and 2017

Households by Income

0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% 40.0% <$20K $20K - $40K $40K - $60K $60K - $100K $100K+

Household Income Share 2010 2012 2017

Median Household Income

$29,508 $27,687 $28,053

$26,500 $27,000 $27,500 $28,000 $28,500 $29,000 $29,500 $30,000 2010 2012 2017

Year Median Income

San Antonio PMA - Household IncomeTrends

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Economic Highlights

  • County experienced slight slowdown in 2009, but has grown

each year since 2003

  • County gained 26,830 jobs (3.6%) since 2010
  • County unemployment rate declined past three years
  • July 2013 rate of 6.3% is a five-year low (lower than

state/nation)

Unemployment Rates Total Employment

Bexar County - Economic Trends

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  • Surveyed 34 projects w/ 4,677 units & only 45 vacancies
  • All segments 96.8%+ occupancy, no apparent weaknesses
  • All market-rate units 98.5% occupied & Tax Credit 99.7% occupied
  • Subsidized housing market is very strong: 99.9% occupancy
  • All 9 subsidized projects have wait lists, 6-24 months long
  • Housing Choice Voucher wait list: 28,500 households

Housing Supply

Project Type Projects Surveyed Total Units Vacant Units Occupancy Rate

Market-rate 16 2,192 30 98.6% Market-rate/Government-Subsidized 1 249 8 96.8% Market-rate/Tax Credit/Government-Subsidized 3 677 3 99.6% Tax Credit 4 528 2 99.6% Tax Credit/Government-Subsidized 2 124 2 98.4% Government-Subsidized 8 907 100.0%

Total

34 4,677 45 99.0%

San Antonio PMA - Rental Housing Overview

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Housing Supply – Rental (Apartments) Rental Housing Supply - Locations

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Market-rate

Bedroom Baths Units Distribution Vacancy % Vacant Median Gross Rent Studio 1.0 635 23.3% 13 2.0% $549 One-Bedroom 1.0 1,261 46.3% 22 1.7% $800 Two-Bedroom 1.0 137 5.0% 1 0.7% $869 Two-Bedroom 1.5 26 1.0% 0.0% $813 Two-Bedroom 2.0 538 19.8% 1 0.2% $1,947 Two-Bedroom 2.5 45 1.7% 2 4.4% $3,251 Three-Bedroom 2.0 81 3.0% 2 2.5% $3,005 Three-Bedroom 3.5 1 0.0% 0.0% $4,904 Total Market-rate 2,724 100.0% 41 1.5%

  • San Antonio PMA – Market-rate Housing

Housing Supply - Rental

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Tax Credit, Non-Subsidized Bedroom Baths Units Distribution Vacancy % Vacant Median Gross Rent Studio 1.0 93 15.6% 2 2.2% $600 One-Bedroom 1.0 198 33.1% 0.0% $660 Two-Bedroom 1.0 9 1.5% 0.0% $780 Two-Bedroom 2.0 189 31.6% 0.0% $841 Three-Bedroom 2.0 109 18.2% 0.0% $979 Total Tax Credit 598 100.0% 2 0.3%

  • San Antonio PMA – Tax Credit Housing

Housing Supply - Rental

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Housing Supply - Rental

Subsidized Tax Credit Bedroom Baths Units Distribution Vacancy % Vacant One-Bedroom 1.0 146 48.5% 2 1.4% Two-Bedroom 1.0 88 29.2% 0.0% Two-Bedroom 2.0 26 8.6% 0.0% Three-Bedroom 2.0 41 13.6% 0.0% Total Subsidized Tax Credit 301 100.0% 2 0.7% Government-Subsidized Bedroom Baths Units Distribution Vacancy % Vacant Studio 1.0 250 23.7% 0.0% One-Bedroom 1.0 642 60.9% 0.0% Two-Bedroom 1.0 121 11.5% 0.0% Two-Bedroom 2.0 32 3.0% 0.0% Three-Bedroom 1.0 1 0.1% 0.0% Three-Bedroom 2.0 8 0.8% 0.0% Total Subsidized 1,054 100.0% 0.0%

San Antonio PMA – Government-subsidized Housing

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Housing Supply – For-sale

Year Built Number Sold Average Beds/Baths Average

  • Sq. Feet

Price Range Median Sales Price Avg Days

  • n Market

1939 or earlier 539 3/1.75 1,767 $2,600 - $2,600,000 $94,900 150 1940 to 1950 150 2/1.25 1,233 $14,100 - $385,000 $61,550 122 1951 to 1960 29 3/1.5 1,282 $15,500 - $261,000 $53,500 127 1961 to 1970 9 3/1.5 1,905 $20,500 - $810,000 $89,000 132 1971 to 1980 8 3/2.0 1,354 $43,000 - $135,000 $67,550 78 1981 to 1990 13 3/2.25 1,984 $21,900 - $725,000 $138,000 93 1991 to 2000/ 27 3/2.5 2,193 $36,000 - $997,000 $175,000 93 2001 to present 138 3/2.75 2,021 $28,157 - $1,085,000 $207,000 129 Total 913 3/2.0 1,716 $2,600 - $2,600,000 $99,900 138

Sales History by Year Built – (August 13, 2011 to August 13, 2013)

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Housing Supply – For-sale

  • Nearly 60% of all homes sold in past 2 years was built pre-1940
  • Notable share (15.1%) of new product sold in past 2-years

Sales History by Year Built

16.4% 3.2% 1.0% 0.9% 1.4% 3.0% 15.1% 59.0% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 1939 or earlier 1940 - 1950 1951 - 1960 1961 - 1970 1971 - 1980 1981 - 1990 1991 - 2000 2001 to present

Year Built Share

Sales History by Year Built

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Bedrooms Sold Avg. Baths Avg.

  • Sq. Feet

Price Range Median Price Price Per

  • Sq. Ft.
  • Avg. Days
  • n Market

Two-Br. 13 2.25 1,296 $173,739 – $599,000 $219,000 $168.98 145 Three-Br. 18 2.25 1,693 $110,325 – $649,000 $165,500 $97.76 102 Four-Br. 6 3.25 2,974 $212,000 – $390,000 $286,950 $96.49 91 Five-Br. 9 3.5 3,364 $243,226 – $732,500 $269,720 $80.18 79 Total 46

  • 2,075

$110,325 – $732,500 $224,333 $108.11 108

New Home Sales by Bedrooms – Year Built (2010 and later) Housing Supply – For-sale

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Housing Supply – For-sale

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Housing Supply – For-sale

  • PMA has 141 available homes for-sale (most 2-br and 3-br)
  • Median homes sales (asking) price of $139,000
  • Average days on market of 117 (Three-bedroom shortest, 84 days)

Bedrooms Homes Listed Avg. Baths Avg.

  • Sq. Ft.

Avg. Year Built Price Range Median Price Price

  • Sq. Ft.
  • Avg. Days
  • n Market

One-Br. 4 1.0 1,080 1969 $15,000 - $208,000 $107,500 $99.54 206 Two-Br. 52 1.25 1,346 1937 $19,900 - $799,000 $82,950 $61.63 137 Three-Br. 53 1.75 1,693 1935 $20,000 - $998,000 $99,900 $59.00 84 Four-Br. 22 2.75 2,761 1959 $72,000 - $899,000 $390,016 $141.26 102 Five-Br.+ 10 3.75 3,930 1972 $75,000 - $895,000 $519,495 $132.19 183 Total 141

  • 1,873

1943 $15,000 – $998,000 $139,000 $74.21 117

San Antonio PMA - Available For-Sale Housing by Bedroom

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Housing Supply – For-sale (available)

List Price Number of Homes Percent of Supply Average Days on Market

Up to $99,999 62 44.0% 117 $100,000 to $124,999 3 2.2% 56 $125,000 to $149,999 9 6.4% 76 $150,000 to $174,999 9 6.4% 85 $175,000 to $199,999 9 6.4% 190 $200,000 to $224,999 5 3.5% 142 $225,000 to $249,999 4 2.8% 57 $250,000 to $274,999 4 2.8% 61 $275,000 to $299,999 2 1.4% 30 $300,000 to $349,999 6 4.3% 115 $350,000 to $399,999 5 3.5% 143 $400,000+ 23 16.3% 142 Total 141 100.0% 117

Available For-Sale Housing Supply by Price

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Bedrooms Homes Listed Avg. Baths Avg.

  • Sq. Ft.

Price Range Median List Price Price Per

  • Sq. ft.
  • Avg. Days
  • n Market

Two-Br. 5 2.0 1,312 $169,900 – $596,126 $183,900 $140.17 172 Three-Br. 4 2.75 1,985 $163,172 – $725,000 $304,500 $153.40 230 Four-Br. 4 3.0 2,890 $214,632 – $390,532 $346,389 $119.86 155 Five-Br. 2 3.75 3,601 $264,295 – $499,990 $382,143 $106.12 62 Total 15

  • 2,218

$163,172 – $725,000 $309,000 $139.31 168

Available New For-Sale Housing Supply-Year Built (2010 and later)

Housing Supply – For-sale (available)

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Housing Supply – For-sale (available)

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Demand Component Target Market Segment (Income Band) Low ($0 to $24,520) Moderate ($24,521 to $36,780) High ($36,781 - $60,000) Number of Income- Appropriate Renter Households 2015 8,109 2,469 2,666 Multiplied by Capture Rates 2% to 10% 2% to 10% 2% to 10% Equals Maximum Unit Potential

162 to 810 49 to 247 53 to 267

Housing Gap Estimates – Rental

Overall Rental Housing Demand by Income

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Housing Gap Estimates – For-sale

Income Range Affordable Home Value* Net Market Demand Capture Rate Site Specific Demand Less Than $39,999 Up to $99,999 796 15% 120 $40,000 to $49,999 $100,000 to $124,999 201 15% 30 $50,000 to $59,999 $125,000 to $149,999 134 15% 20 $60,000 to $69,999 $150,000 to $174,999 97 15% 15 $70,000 to $79,999 $175,000 to $199,999 89 15% 13 $80,000 to $89,999 $200,000 to $224,999 71 15% 11 $90,000 to $99,999 $225,000 to $249,999 74 15% 11 $100,000 to $109,999 $250,000 to $274,999 50 15% 8 $110,000 to $119,999 $275,000 to $299,999 60 15% 9 $120,000 to $139,999 $300,000 to $349,999 101 15% 15 $140,000 to $159,999 $350,000 to $399,999 64 15% 10 $160,000 & Over $400,000+ 280 15% 42 Total 2,017 15% 304

*Basedon 2.5 times the annual income

Overall For-Sale Housing Demand by Income & Price

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Contact Information Patrick M. Bowen Bowen National Research 155 E. Columbus St., Suite 220 Pickerington, Ohio 43147 Phone: 614-833-9300 E-Mail: patrickb@bowennational.com