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SURFACE WATER AVAILABILITY IN MOROCCO
BALANCING UNCERTAINTY IN BIOPHYSICAL MODELING OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS
- Chas. Fant
Alyssa McCluskey and Kenneth Strzepek
S URFACE W ATER A VAILABILITY IN M OROCCO B ALANCING U NCERTAINTY IN - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
S URFACE W ATER A VAILABILITY IN M OROCCO B ALANCING U NCERTAINTY IN - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
S URFACE W ATER A VAILABILITY IN M OROCCO B ALANCING U NCERTAINTY IN B IOPHYSICAL M ODELING OF C LIMATE C HANGE I MPACTS Chas. Fant Alyssa McCluskey and Kenneth Strzepek Integrated Framework Global change (temperature, rainfall, fossil fuel
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Integrated Framework
Agriculture
(food, exports)
Local economy
(growth, jobs, welfare, inequality)
Global change
(temperature, rainfall, fossil fuel prices)
Rivers
(runoff, streamflow)
Flooding
(frequency, severity)
Sea level rise
(land loss, salination)
Energy
(hydropower)
Infrastructure
(roads, ports, houses)
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Overview of CLIRUN-II
- Rainfall-runoff model
- Focus on the impacts of changes in climate
- Calibration / validation procedure to build base model
- For the future, climate is adjusted
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Overview of CLIRUN-II
Model Structure
- Input:
– Temperature – Precipitation – PET
- Output
– Total runoff
- Structure
– Water enters system by rain and snowmelt – Two soil layers – Water exits the system by evaporation, quick runoff and slow runoff
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- 16 basins with “measured”
stream flow
- 21 basins without measured
stream flow
- Natural vs. actual stream flow
Basin delineation
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Climate Change Data
- Hadley Centre model
– Downscaled to 0.1 degree from 2.75 X 3.75 deg grids – 2 scenarios: A2 and B2
- A suite of 56 GCM-SRES pairs
– 22 GCMs – 3 SRES scenarios: A2, A1b, and B1
- GCM uncertainty
– Best at predicting long-term global mean changes
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Climate Change Data
Climate used as input Apply to ‘measured’ base data Change in Climate
30 years of ‘Measured’ climate data monthly time series
GCM data
GCM-Base [mean]
GCM-Future [decade mean] 2010 - 2100
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Results
Change in climate for a basin
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Results
Change in runoff for the Souss Basin
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Results
Change in runoff overview for Morocco
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Conclusions
- The future is uncertain
- GCMs are the most advanced tools currently available for estimating the
long-term effects of climate change
- Impact studies are more valuable if we understand the impacts in terms of
a range of possible outcomes