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Run II luminosity projections Matching FY07 and prospects for FY08 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Run II luminosity projections Matching FY07 and prospects for FY08 and FY09 Tevatron Meeting Vaia Papadimitriou 31 August, 2007 (see also beams-doc-2864) 1 Introduction 1. The model used is the one described in Beams-doc-2022, 2680.

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Run II luminosity projections Matching FY07 and prospects for FY08 and FY09

Tevatron Meeting Vaia Papadimitriou 31 August, 2007 (see also beams-doc-2864)

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Introduction

  • 1. The model used is the one described in Beams-doc-2022, 2680.
  • 2. The model predicts weekly integrated luminosity on the basis of 16 input

parameters described in the following page.

  • 3. The original model was extended to cover a period of three years (FY07-FY09)

allowing for a variation of the input parameters every 3 months.

  • 4. The inputs were selected in most cases by looking at the current performance
  • f the machine.
  • 5. I am assuming two shutdowns, starting on a) August 6, 2007 and b) August 24,
  • 2008. For both shutdowns I am assuming 10 weeks of no luminosity.
  • 6. For both shutdowns I am assuming that after the weeks of no luminosity, the

first week we deliver 70% of the expected integrated luminosity and the second week 85% of the expected luminosity.

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Selected Inputs for the model with the goal to compare expected and delivered luminosity in FY07

Number of protons per bunch 256 x 109 Luminosity Density @ 100 x 1010 90.32 μb-1 / sec Luminosity Density @ 300 x 1010 190.34 μb-1 / sec Init Tevatron Lifetime @ 80 μb-1/sec 7.07 hours Init Tevatron Lifetime @ 160 μb-1/sec 6.59 hours HEP store hours per week 109.94 hours Acc-Rec Transfer Efficiency @ 0x1010 87.4% Acc-Rec Transfer Efficiency @ 300x1010 87% Acc-Rec transfer time (0.395, 0.268, 0.206, 0.195) hours Recycler lifetime 500 hours Recycler mining efficiency 93.8% Peak stack rate (18, 21, 21, 22 ) x1010/hour Half rate stack size 200x1010 Maximum stack size 400x1010 Timeline Utililization Factor (73, 74, 74, 74) % Accumulator leftover factor (11, 10, 10, 10)% With the above inputs we should have expected for FY07 a total of ~1363 pb-1 for 20.6 h long stores This is to be compared with 1311 pb-1 delivered in FY07 Assuming 20.6 hour long stores and 6 pbar transfer shots between stores

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Assumed peak stacking rate profile for FY08 and FY09– mod1

O c t . 7

  • Jan. 08
  • Jul. 08

A p r . 8

  • Oct. 08

J u l . 9

  • Jan. 09
  • Apr. 09

peak stacking rate assumed (mod1) as a function of time FY08-FY09

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 trimester number peak stacking rate

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Assumed peak stacking rate profile for FY08 and FY09 – mod2

O c t . 7 J a n . 8

  • Jul. 08

A p r . 8

  • Oct. 08

J u l . 9

  • Jan. 09
  • Apr. 09

peak stacking rate assumed ( mod2 ) vs time FY08-FY09

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 trimester number peak stacking rate

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Assumed peak stacking rate profile for FY08 and FY09 – mod3

O c t . 7 J a n . 8

  • Jul. 08

A p r . 8

  • Oct. 08

J u l . 9

  • Jan. 09
  • Apr. 09

peak stacking rate ( mod3 ) vs time FY08-FY09

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 trimester number peak stacking rate

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Assume four (five) different scenarios

  • 1. In the following we pick the three stacking profiles discussed earlier and build

around them two more pesimistic and two (three) more optimistic projections for integrated luminosity in the next two years.

  • 2. We are by default assuming 21 hour long stores and 6 pbar transfer shots

between stores as a default (except in Scenario V).

  • 3. The most pesimistic scenario (I) uses the stacking rate profile mod1 and

assumes 100 store hours a week. Most of the other input parameters are the ones we ran at on average within FY07.

  • 4. Scenario II uses the stacking rate profile mod2 and assumes 105 store hours

per week. It also assumes more protons per bunch, better Acc-Rec transfer efficiency and better timeline utilization factor.

  • 5. Scenario III uses the stacking rate profile mod2 and assumes 115 store hours

per week except for the trimesters right after the shutdowns (110 h). It also assumes a bit better Acc-Rec transfer eff. than Sc. II and smaller transfer time. It uses as well an 1% better Tevatron lifetime from January 2008 and on.

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Assume four (five) different scenarios

  • 6. Scenario IV uses the stacking rate profile mod3 and assumes 120 store hours

per week except for the trimesters right after the shutdowns (110 h). It also assumes a better luminosity density, by 2%, and a timeline utilization factor which is a bit better than in Sc. III.

  • 7. Scenario V is identical to Scenario IV but it uses 18 hour long stores for the

trimesters where the peak stacking rate is 27 x 1010/hour.

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Inputs for FY08 and FY09 – Sc. I (pesimistic)

Number of protons per bunch 256, 256, 256, 256, 260, 260, 260, 260 x 109 Luminosity Density @ 100 x 1010 90.32 μb-1 / sec Luminosity Density @ 300 x 1010 190.34 μb-1 / sec Init Tevatron Lifetime @ 80 μb-1/sec 7.07 hours Init Tevatron Lifetime @ 160 μb-1/sec 6.59 hours HEP store hours per week 100 hours Acc-Rec Transfer Efficiency @ 0x1010 87.4% Acc-Rec Transfer Efficiency @ 300x1010 87% Acc-Rec transfer time 0.19 hours Recycler lifetime 500 hours Recycler mining efficiency 93.8% Peak stacking rate 22, 22, …, 22 x1010/hour Half rate stack size 210x1010 Maximum stack size 420x1010 Timeline Utililization Factor 74,74,74,74,75,75,75,75% Accumulator leftover factor 10% Assuming 21 hour long stores and 6 pbar transfer shots between stores With above inputs we should expect ~ 2651 pb-1 in 2 years

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Inputs for FY08 and FY09 – Scenario II

Number of protons per bunch 260, 270, 270, 270, 270, 270, 270, 270 x 109 Luminosity Density @ 100 x 1010 90.32 μb-1 / sec Luminosity Density @ 300 x 1010 190.34 μb-1 / sec Init Tevatron Lifetime @ 80 μb-1/sec 7.07 hours Init Tevatron Lifetime @ 160 μb-1/sec 6.59 hours HEP store hours per week 105 hours Acc-Rec Transfer Efficiency @ 0x1010 90% Acc-Rec Transfer Efficiency @ 300x1010 90% Acc-Rec transfer time 0.19 hours Recycler lifetime 500 hours Recycler mining efficiency 93.8% Peak stacking rate 22, 25, …, 25 x1010/hour Half rate stack size 210x1010 Maximum stack size 420x1010 Timeline Utililization Factor 80% Accumulator leftover factor 10% Assuming 21 hour long stores and 6 pbar transfer shots between stores With above inputs we should expect ~ 3082 pb-1 in 2 years

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Inputs for FY08 and FY09 – Scenario III

Number of protons per bunch 260, 270, 270, 270, 270, 270, 270, 270 x 109 Luminosity Density @ 100 x 1010 90.32 μb-1 / sec Luminosity Density @ 300 x 1010 190.34 μb-1 / sec Init Tevatron Lifetime @ 80 μb-1/sec 7.07, 7.14,…7.14 hours Init Tevatron Lifetime @ 160 μb-1/sec 6.59, 6.65, …,6.65 hours HEP store hours/week 110, 115,115, 115, 110, 115, 115, 115 hours Acc-Rec Transfer Efficiency @ 0x1010 90,92,…92% Acc-Rec Transfer Efficiency @ 300x1010 90, 91,…91% Acc-Rec transfer time 0.19, 0.16, …, 0.16 hours Recycler lifetime 500 hours Recycler mining efficiency 93.8% Peak stacking rate 22, 25, …, 25 x1010/hour Half rate stack size 210x1010 Maximum stack size 420x1010 Timeline Utililization Factor 80% Accumulator leftover factor 10% Assuming 21 hour long stores and 6 pbar transfer shots between stores With above inputs we should expect ~ 3378 pb-1 in 2 years

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Inputs for FY08 and FY09 – Sc. IV (optimistic1)

Number of protons per bunch 260, 270, 270, 270, 270, 270, 270, 270 x 109 Luminosity Density @ 100 x 1010 90.32, 92.126,…,92.126 μb-1 / sec Luminosity Density @ 300 x 1010 190.34, 194.147,…,194.147 μb-1 / sec Init Tevatron Lifetime @ 80 μb-1/sec 7.07, 7.14 hours Init Tevatron Lifetime @ 160 μb-1/sec 6.59, 6.65, …,6.65 hours HEP store hours/week 110, 120,120, 120, 110, 120, 120, 120 hours Acc-Rec Transfer Efficiency @ 0x1010 90, 92,…92% Acc-Rec Transfer Efficiency @ 300x1010 90, 91,…91% Acc-Rec transfer time 0.19, 0.16, …, 0.16 hours Recycler lifetime 500 hours Recycler mining efficiency 93.8% Peak stacking rate 22, 25, 27,…, 27 x1010/hour Half rate stack size 210, 250, …,250x1010 Maximum stack size 420, 500,…,500x1010 Timeline Utililization Factor 80, 83, …,83% Accumulator leftover factor 10% Assuming 21 hour long stores and 6 pbar transfer shots between stores With above inputs we should expect ~ 3586 pb-1 in 2 years

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Inputs for FY08 and FY09 – Sc. V (optimistic2)

Number of protons per bunch 260, 270, 270, 270, 270, 270, 270, 270 x 109 Luminosity Density @ 100 x 1010 90.32, 92.126,…,92.126 μb-1 / sec Luminosity Density @ 300 x 1010 190.34, 194.147,…,194.147 μb-1 / sec Init Tevatron Lifetime @ 80 μb-1/sec 7.07, 7.14 hours Init Tevatron Lifetime @ 160 μb-1/sec 6.59, 6.65, …,6.65 hours HEP store hours/week 110, 120,120, 120, 110, 120, 120, 120 hours Acc-Rec Transfer Efficiency @ 0x1010 90, 92,…92% Acc-Rec Transfer Efficiency @ 300x1010 90, 91,…91% Acc-Rec transfer time 0.19, 0.16, …, 0.16 hours Recycler lifetime 500 hours Recycler mining efficiency 93.8% Peak stacking rate 22, 25, 27,…, 27 x1010/hour Half rate stack size 210, 250, …,250x1010 Maximum stack size 420, 500,…,500x1010 Timeline Utililization Factor 80, 83, …,83% Accumulator leftover factor 10% Assuming 21 hour long stores and 6 pbar transfer shots between stores, but 18 hour stores when stacking rate is 27 x 1010/hour With above inputs we should expect ~ 3752 pb-1 in 2 years

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Integrated luminosity in Run II pb-1

500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000 5500 6000 6500 7000 7500 10/01/03 08/01/04 06/02/05 04/03/06 02/02/07 12/04/07 10/04/08 08/05/09 time since FY04 Integrated luminosity pb-1 Integrated Lum ScI pb-1 Integrated Lum ScII pb-1 Integrated Lum ScIII pb-1 Integrated Lum ScIV pb-1

Luminosity projection curves updating the FY07 projections with real data

FY08 start Real data up to FY07 (included) 6.79 fb-1 6.59 fb-1 6.29 fb-1 5.86 fb-1 Official set

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Integrated luminosity in Run II pb-1

500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000 5500 6000 6500 7000 7500 10/01/03 08/01/04 06/02/05 04/03/06 02/02/07 12/04/07 10/04/08 08/05/09 time since FY04 Integrated luminosity pb-1 Integrated Lum ScI pb-1 Integrated Lum ScII pb-1 Integrated Lum ScIII pb-1 Integrated Lum ScIV pb-1 Integrated Lum ScV pb-1

Luminosity projection curves updating the FY07 projections with real data

FY08 start Real data up to FY07 (included) 6.79 fb-1 6.59 fb-1 6.29 fb-1 5.86 fb-1 6.96 fb-1 Scenario V assumes shorter stores at high stacking rates

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What we expect that the delivered luminosity will be in FY08

  • 1. Scenario I: 1.27 fb-1
  • 2. Scenario II: 1.48 fb-1
  • 3. Scenario III: 1.62 fb-1
  • 4. Scenario IV: 1.71 fb-1
  • 5. Scenario V: 1.76 fb-1

There is still room to improve the Tevatron luminosity lifetime by more than 1%, to improve on luminosity density by more than 2% as well as in the more pesimistic scenarios, or to adjust accordingly the store length when the stacking rate becomes higher, even within scenarios II and III.

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Projection of peak luminosity and luminosity delivered per week

Scenario I inputs Initial luminosity Integrated luminosity

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Store Length (Hours) Integrated Luminosity per Week ( pb

  • 1)

2 Transfers 3 Transfers 4 Transfers 5 Transfers 6 Transfers 7 Transfers 50 100 150 200 250 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Store Length (Hours) Initial Luminosity ( ฀b-1/sec) 2 Transfers 3 Transfers 4 Transfers 5 Transfers 6 Transfers 7 Transfers

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Projection of peak luminosity and luminosity delivered per week

Scenario III inputs

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Store Length (Hours) Integrated Luminosity per Week ( pb

  • 1)

2 Transfers 3 Transfers 4 Transfers 5 Transfers 6 Transfers 7 Transfers 50 100 150 200 250 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Store Length (Hours) Initial Luminosity ( ฀b-1/sec) 2 Transfers 3 Transfers 4 Transfers 5 Transfers 6 Transfers 7 Transfers

Initial luminosity Integrated luminosity This points to shorter stores for maximum delivered luminosity

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Backup slides

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Using information between October 1, 2006 and August 5, 2007. Stores 4996-5592 and pbar shots 4561- 6480 were used.

Accelerator performance plots in FY07 to be used as input for the luminosity projection model Vaia Papadimitriou

August 31, 2007

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# 6 store length (hours) 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 4980 5020 5060 5100 5140 5180 5220 5260 5300 5340 5380 5420 5460 5500 5540 5580 store number store length (hours)

Store length, stores 4996-5592

10/01/06-08/05/07

AVG FY07: 20.63 h STD DEV FY07: 7.81 h AVG Last 50 FY06: 22.07 h

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CDF-D0 average initial luminosity stores 4996- 5592

10/01/06-08/05/07

# 15 SDA avg initial lum (1E30) vs store number 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 4950 5000 5050 5100 5150 5200 5250 5300 5350 5400 5450 5500 5550 5600 5650 store number avg initial luminosity

AVG FY07: 192.48 E30

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# 55 SBD p/bunch at Remove Halo (1E09) vs store number 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 190 200 210 220 230 240 250 260 270 280 290 300 310 320 4950 5000 5050 5100 5150 5200 5250 5300 5350 5400 5450 5500 5550 5600 5650 store number protons/bunch at Remove Halo

Protons per bunch at Remove Halo,

stores 4996-5592

10/01/06-08/05/07

AVG FY07: 255.59 1E09 12/14/06 AVG for last 50 stores in FY06 (4859-4994): 256.4

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luminosity density vs stash size

Stores 4996-5592

10/01/06-08/05/07

lum density vs stash size

y = 0.5001x + 40.305 R2 = 0.6481

50 100 150 200 250 300 350 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 stash size (E10) luminosity density lum density Linear (lum density)

At 100 E10 stash: 90.315 At 300 E10 stash: 190.335

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CDF luminosity lifetime fits

(exponent)

μ

μτ ⎟ ⎟ ⎠ ⎞ ⎜ ⎜ ⎝ ⎛ + = t L t L 1 ) (

AVG FY07: 1.1

10/01/06-08/05/07

Stores 4996-5592

# 182 exponent 1/time vs store number chisquare < 5

0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 4950 5000 5050 5100 5150 5200 5250 5300 5350 5400 5450 5500 5550 5600 5650 store number exponent of 1/time fit

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CDF luminosity lifetime fits (tau)

(chisquare<5)

μ

μτ ⎟ ⎟ ⎠ ⎞ ⎜ ⎜ ⎝ ⎛ + = t L t L 1 ) (

Stores 4996-5592

# 181 TAU 1/time vs store number

2 4 6 8 10 12 4950 5000 5050 5100 5150 5200 5250 5300 5350 5400 5450 5500 5550 5600 5650 store number tau

10/01/06-08/05/07

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CDF luminosity lifetime fits (tau) vs lum density, FY07 (chisquare<5)

Stores 4996-5592

# 181 TAU 1/time vs lum density

y = -0.006x + 7.5452 R2 = 0.0701

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 260 280 300 320 luminosity density tau (1/time)

10/01/06-08/05/07

At 80 lum den: 7.065 At 160 lum den: 6.585

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Store hours per week, FY07

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Transfer efficiency for pbar shots 4561-6480

10/01/06-08/04/07

Column 35 Total transfer efficency (beg-end) 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 4500 4700 4900 5100 5300 5500 5700 5900 6100 6300 6500 pbar shot number Acc to RR transfer eff.

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Transfer efficiency for pbar shots vs stash size, 4561-4916

10/01/06-12/19/06

Column 35 Total transfer efficency (beg-end) vs stash size

y = -0.0014x + 87.383 R2 = 0.0002

20 40 60 80 100 120 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 260 280 300 320 340 360 380 400 420 stash size Acc to RR transfer eff.

At 0 stash: 87.38% At 300 E10 stash: 86.96%

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Transfer time, shots 4561- 6480

10/01/06-08/04/07

delay in hours vs pbar shot number 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35 0.4 0.45 0.5 0.55 0.6 0.65 0.7 0.75 0.8 0.85 0.9 0.95 1 4500 4700 4900 5100 5300 5500 5700 5900 6100 6300 6500 pbar shot number delay between transfers in hours

AVG FY07: 1st trim. 0.395 h, 2nd trim. 0.268 h, 3rd trim. 0.206 h, 4th trim. 0.195 h

remove gt 2 hours for avg

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Unstacking fraction, stores 4996-5592

10/01/06-08/05/07

AVG FY07:0.938

# 31 RR unstacking fraction vs store number

0.4 0.45 0.5 0.55 0.6 0.65 0.7 0.75 0.8 0.85 0.9 0.95 1 1.05 4950 5000 5050 5100 5150 5200 5250 5300 5350 5400 5450 5500 5550 5600 5650 store number mining efficiency

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Fraction of time we stack per week setup for stacking is included

06/06/06-08/05/07

timeline factor vs time 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35 0.4 0.45 0.5 0.55 0.6 0.65 0.7 0.75 0.8 0.85 0.9 0.95 5/23/2006 7/2/2006 8/11/2006 9/20/2006 10/30/200 6 12/9/2006 1/18/2007 2/27/2007 4/8/2007 5/18/2007 6/27/2007 8/6/2007 date fraction of time we are stacking

AVG FY07:0.7219 (0.76 if I remove the 3 small value numbers in FY07) I assume a (74) 80% timeline factor. (this takes into account roughly about 15 hours in store setup per week, 12 hours in SwYa events and 6-7 hours in studies.

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luminosity density vs stash size for best 10 initial luminosity stores

Stores: 5245, 5234, 5244, 5226, 5590, 5201, 5186, 5376, 5370, 5194

10/01/06-08/05/07

At 100 E10 stash: 165.89 At 300 E10 stash: 234.87

lum density vs stash size

y = 0.3449x + 131.4 R2 = 0.5477

240 250 260 270 280 290 300 310 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 stash size (E10) luminosity density lum density Linear (lum density)

Average mining eff.: 92.9%

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luminosity density vs stash size for best 39 initial luminosity stores

10/01/06-08/05/07

At 100 E10 stash: 196.1 At 300 E10 stash: 236

lum density vs stash size (39 highest initial lum stores)

y = 0.1995x + 176.15 R2 = 0.2463

50 100 150 200 250 300 350 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 stash size E10 luminosity density lum density Linear (lum density)

Average mining eff: 93.2%