[PPT] - #rsif2016 www.sruc.ac.uk/rsif2016 Rural Scotland in Focus 2016: PowerPoint Presentation

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Leading the way in Agriculture and Rural Research, Education and Consulting

Rural Scotland in Focus 2016: Informing Rural Policy in Scotland

RPLC Webinar Wednesday 15th February 2017

@RuralPolicySRUC #rsif2016 www.sruc.ac.uk/rsif2016

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Structure of the Webinar

Introduction to rural Scotland
The RSiF Reports, the Rural Policy Centre

and SRUC

Key messages from RSiF 2016

– Changing Land Management – Rural Economies – Policies for Communities in Scotland – Conclusions – the need for a rural strategy

The impact of the RSiF Reports

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Rural Scotland is significant:

1. 98% of Scotland’s land mass (rural defined as less than 3,000 population) 2. Home to approx. 20% of population = 1 million people 3. Sectors: food and drink, tourism, renewables, forestry, agriculture and fisheries, IT, manufacturing, construction, professional and creative industries.

3

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Rural Scotland in Focus Reports give:

1. Fast-track to evidence
2. Commentary on key themes
3. Compendium of resources
4. Insight into changes over time

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Rural Policy Centre Activities

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RSiF supports SRUC in delivering: SRUC Mission: “committed to excellence in the advancement, communication and translation

f knowledge throughout

the rural sector”

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Partnership is central…

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Introduction: Key Points

1. Much has changed since our 2014 Report:
a. UK Election (2015)
b. Scottish Election (2016)
c. Brexit vote (2016)
d. Context of uncertainty
2. Wider policy landscape…
3. The centrality of evidence remains:
a. what is known, what is not known, what we still

need to know…

b. what all this means for rural and national policy…

which we explore at the end…

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Report chapters: Key Messages

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Agriculture – Time for

Change?

– Steven Thomson with – Andrew Barnes – Julian Bell – Gavin Hill – Robert Logan – David Keiley

Outcomes from different

land ownership models

– Dr Rob McMorran

What future for woodland

and forestry in Scotland?

– Prof Davy McCracken

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Agriculture – time for change?

Scottish agriculture is constantly evolving –

using SRUC experts:

– Provide an overview – Drivers of change – Opportunities and Challenges going forward

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Changing Agriculture – Data Evidence

Less than 40 40 to 54 55 to 64 65 and

ver

Total Cereals 8% 30% 30% 32% 1,222 General Cropping 8% 30% 29% 32% 476 Horticulture & permanent crops 5% 42% 23% 30% 102 Specialist pigs 20% 45% 20% 14% 49 Specialist poultry 15% 39% 24% 23% 75 Dairy 14% 47% 23% 16% 722 Cattle & sheep (LFA) 10% 31% 26% 32% 9,742 Lowland cattle & sheep 9% 32% 28% 31% 1,150 Mixed 11% 31% 30% 28% 1,538 Forage 9% 26% 25% 40% 2,278 Other 10% 13% 33% 43% 30 Total 10% 31% 27% 32% 17,384 Age Local Authority (LA) Scotland’s crop area LA’s total Farmland Barley Wheat Oilseeds Potato Barley Wheat Oilseeds Potato Aberdeenshire 27% 31% 35% 13% 29% 17% 67% 9% 6% 3% Scottish Borders 12% 19% 8% 21% 21% 7% 35% 32% 10% 3% Angus 12% 37% 10% 13% 15% 32% 45% 19% 8% 12% Perth & Kinross 10% 14% 9% 10% 6% 18% 46% 18% 4% 8% Fife 9% 55% 7% 15% 7% 9% 39% 30% 5% 4% Highland 7% 2% 7% 3% 6% 6% 59% 9% 5% 4% East Lothian 5% 52% 3% 12% 7% 4% 32% 43% 8% 4% Moray 4% 16% 6% 1% 1% 4% 69% 5% 2% 4% Dumfries & Galloway 4% 5% 4% 3% 1% 1% 53% 17% 1% 1% Data source: Extracted from Scottish Government June Agricultural Census 2015 (a) LA crop area as % of: (b) % of Scottish Area of : (c) % of LA’s cropping area under: Local Authority Holdings Work Days Average days per Holding % of Scottish Total Perth & Kinross 85 13,147 155 10% Angus 54 4,414 82 3% East Lothian 30 798 27 1% Fife 44 2,872 65 2% Aberdeenshire 193 56,341 292 44% Scotland 1,502 127,307 85 Local Authority Holdings Work Days Average days per Holding % of Scottish Total Perth & Kinross 25 190,992 7,640 42% Angus 33 152,758 4,629 33% East Lothian 7 60,757 8,680 13% Fife 20 19,952 998 4% Aberdeenshire 43 14,969 348 3% Scotland 217 459,801 2,119 Table Estimated (a) seasonal labour and (b) Migrant labour in key Local Authorities and proportion attributed to horticulture - 2015 Data Source: Scottish Government’s June Agricultural Census – 2015. 91% 99% 54% 12% 85% 91% (a) Non-family labour employed on non-regular basis % LA total in Horticulture 56% 0% 10% 31% 88% 45% (b) Migrant workers (i.e non-UK nationals) % LA total in Horticulture Flock Size less than 10 1,737 14% 8,787 0.3% 10-50 4,077 32% 100,388 4% 50-100 1,680 13% 118,655 5% 100-250 2,093 17% 337,260 13% 250-500 1,482 12% 529,141 20% 500-1,000 1,087 9% 754,503 29% Over 1,000 505 4% 739,440 29% Scotland 12,661 100% 2,588,174 100% Holdings with Sheep Sheep Herd Size <10 3,376 33% 12,968 2% 5,132 53% 17,031 6% 10-50 3,414 33% 88,125 17% 3,161 33% 75,318 27% 50-100 1,894 18% 136,083 26% 862 9% 59,213 22% 100 - 200 1,181 12% 160,583 31% 367 4% 50,399 18% 200-400 352 3% 91,129 18% 139 1% 38,216 14% >400 50 0.5% 30,592 6% 45 0.5% 34,612 13% Scotland 10,267 100% 519,480 100% 9,706 100% 274,789 100% Holdings with Suckler Cows Suckler Cows Holdings with finishing males Finishing Males

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System Bottom Third Average Top Third Top - Bottom Difference LFA Hill

£297
£180
£70

£227 LFA Upland – early weaning

£178
£109

£22 £200 LFA Upland – late weaning

£158
£58

£155 £313 Lowground suckler

£180
£33
£115

£65 Rearer-finisher

£293
£217

£18 £311 Cereal finishing

£16

£55 £155 £171 Forage Finishing

£132
£126
£89

£43 Data Source: QMS (2015) Cattle and Beef Enterprise Profitability in Scotland Sample Size Increased likelihood of retirement More uncertain business future Increased challenges to maintain the business Increased

pportunities

for maintaining the business under 40 61 15% 67% 61% 52% 40-54 184 14% 60% 53% 35% 55-64 203 25% 57% 54% 40% 65 and over 259 24% 57% 50% 33% Very Small 206 24% 54% 45% 28% Small 201 21% 60% 56% 35% Medium 167 18% 56% 59% 40% Large 114 11% 59% 50% 49% Beef & Sheep 434 20% 61% 53% 33% Cropping & Horticulture 56 14% 45% 46% 36% Dairy / Pigs / Poultry 47 13% 43% 40% 47% Forage/Other 84 24% 44% 49% 46% Mixed 68 24% 65% 63% 41% 689 20% 57% 52% 37% Age Group Business Size Farm Type Total Sample Data Source: SAC Customer Satisfaction Survey, 2016 How Brexit might impact on your? Sample Don't know Decrease Stay the same Increase Business Size 676 17% 11% 57% 15% Farming Intensity 671 14% 16% 49% 21% Mix of farm products 670 15% 10% 63% 13% Diversification & off-farm income 659 12% 13% 42% 32% Data Source: SAC Customer Satisfaction Survey, 2016 Lower Quartile Second Quartile Third Quartile Upper Quartile Lower Quartile 64% 22% 9% 6% Second Quartile 22% 42% 24% 12% Third Quartile 10% 23% 44% 23% Upper Quartile 6% 12% 27% 55% Technical Efficiency Band Current Period Previous Period

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Agriculture – chapter structure

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Agriculture – chapter structure

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Agriculture – time for change?

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Agriculture – time for change

Policy uncertainty

– drop in investment; – long-term system changes are postponed

Farmers & crofters need to drive changes to

improve:

– technical efficiency, – business viability, – vibrancy of the sector

Support the younger generation

– implement new ideas and take new approaches to farming

Unprecedented period of policy transition

– Need to take stock and create a roadmap for success for Scottish agriculture

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Outcomes from different land

wnership models
Some diversification of landownership

types has occurred, with different

utcomes.

– Private estate owners emphasise long-term estate viability and deliver economic impacts. – NGO landowners play a key role in conservation, delivering economic and social outcomes. – Community landownership rebuilds community capacity, confidence, increases employment, investment, housing and reduces out-migration.

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Land ownership continued

Policy shifts have increased

pressure on landowners to deliver public benefits and involve communities.

All landowners face

challenges: financial pressures, public and political perceptions and expectations, uncertainty and conflict.

‘New’ landownership models

can increase rural resilience.

Pro-active community

engagement and partnership by private landowners can enhance community outcomes.

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What future for woodland and forestry in Scotland?

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What future for woodland and forestry in Scotland?

Attitudes & Perceptions

Partnerships

Leadership

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Dr Jane Atterton

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The shape of wider rural economies

There are 51,000 registered SMEs in rural

Scotland; one third of Scotland’s total.

Over 70% of these - nearly 37,000 businesses
operate outside the primary sector.
Evidence about the characteristics, needs and

contributions of non-primary sector businesses is relatively limited.

This has led to two false assumptions:

– that the rural economy = agriculture, and – that cities are the only engines of growth.

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Evidence of differences:

Evidence shows that rural businesses are different

to urban businesses:

– e.g. over 42% of businesses in both accessible and remote rural Scotland have no employees, compared to 30-34% in urban Scotland. – e.g. business survival and reg./dereg. rates – e.g. greater importance of home-based and family-

wned businesses
They may therefore

need different (type, delivery, etc.) support.

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The need to know more…

What more do we need to know about rural businesses? What more do we need to know about the context they are

perating in?

This evidence will:

Challenge false assumptions
Lead to more appropriate rural business support
Fulfil the Scottish Government’s purpose

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Prof Sarah Skerratt

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Resilient rural communities?

1. Since 1999, there have been many policies,

programmes and funds to support community resilience.

2. 17 years later, we do not know whether all

these policies have changed the national-level picture of outcomes for communities.

3. This is because:
a. policies and programmes do not feed into each
ther;
b. Indicators change significantly with each new

policy;

c. local-level evidence is not pulled together to assess

progress towards national community outcomes.

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The evidence shows:

Urgent need to:

– develop a framework; – smarter use of what we already know; – identify gaps for further evidence-gathering.

Then:

– clear picture of what has changed and why; – know what to stop and what to continue.

It is no longer acceptable to say that it is

“too difficult” to collect data in and for rural areas (e.g. for Indicators).

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What next for rural Scotland?

1. We have taken you through the drivers and

directions-of-travel of Scotland’s multiple agricultural and land-use sectors, rural businesses and communities.

2. The evidence points to the need for a rural

strategy which is:

a. Coherent, inclusive and measurable;
b. builds on the innovation and creativity of those

in rural Scotland.

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Three Aims of the Strategy:

1. To set out the vision for rural Scotland, and

how the different rural-specific interventions deliver to that vision;

2. To monitor, evaluate and review how national

policies are supporting, or hampering, delivery of that rural vision, potentially using a type of “rural proofing” approach;

3. To develop ways of measuring progress in
rder to track how rural is delivering to (a) its

vision and (b) the Outcomes of the National Performance Framework.

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Vision and progress underpinned by evidence…

1. 1999: Social Justice Strategy:
a. evidence is critical because

“Scotland will know if we are moving towards a fairer, more just nation”.

2. “Scotland knows” is a

compelling phrase – one worth reaching for.

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Impact through Engagement

1. Scottish Parliament:

a. Parliamentary Reception b. Parliamentary Committees c. Launch Events: MSPs on Panel

2. Scottish Government:
Informing Government Policy Analysts and Researchers
3. Scottish Stakeholders:
NGOs, land management, development trusts, academics
4. UK Stakeholders:
e.g. UK Rural Policy and Practitioners’ Research Group
5. International Stakeholders:
Sweden, Finland, Australia, Canada – economic and regional

development bodies, Parliaments.

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Leading the way in Agriculture and Rural Research, Education and Consulting

Rural Scotland in Focus 2016: Informing Rural Policy in Scotland

sarah.skerratt@sruc.ac.uk jane.atterton@sruc.ac.uk www.sruc.ac.uk/ruralpolicycentre

@RuralPolicySRUC #rsif2016 www.sruc.ac.uk/rsif2016