Risk, Resilience & Recovery Developing integrated urban and - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Risk, Resilience & Recovery

Developing integrated urban and local area data management systems to monitor and measure the related impact of the pandemic on affordable housing and urban development space to facilitate evidence-based decision-making

Kecia Rust | 15 September 2020

1. Thinking about Covid-19 & housing 2. What are our data needs? 1. Risk 2. Recovery 3. Resilience 3. Way forward 1. Réflexion sur la Covid-19 et le logement 2. Quels sont nos besoins en matière de données ? 1. Risque 2. Recouvrement 3. Résilience

• 3. Perspectives d'avenir

Overview Aperçu

Thinking about Covid-19 and housing

Réflexion sur la Covid-19 et le logement

• Households face:
• Health issues: poor access to water & sanitation, limited access to healthcare;
• vercrowding
• Financial issues: declining capacity to pay rent / mortgage payments, to buy food,

to pay school fees, etc.

• Resilience issues: savings are being depleted; stigma
• Businesses (landlords, lenders, builders, etc. both large and small scale) face:
• Capacity issues: potential impact when workforce cannot come to work –

whether for health or lockdown

• Sustainability issues: difficulty to persist with increasing non-payment, or slowing

approval timeframes

• Growth issues: inability to grow given depressed demand-side, and

administrative delays

• Cities and governments face:
• Declining revenues as property owners (businesses, landlords, residents) struggle

to meet obligations

• Constrained national fiscus, decrease in conditional grants
• Over time, declining rates base as property values fall
• Rising financial obligations and operational pressures to address vulnerable

housing circumstances

• Failing areas, and rental institutions, where household risk is particularly high (i.e.

inner cities)

• The consequences of extraordinary measures and having to get back to normal

Health impact: risk of infection, managing infection, stigma

Impact sur la santé: risque d'infection, contraintes dans la gestion de l'infection, stigmatisation

Economic & Lockdown impact: declining livelihoods,

declining budgets, deferred investments Impact du confinement sur l’économie : baisse des moyens de subsistance, baisse des budgets, investissements reportés

• Vue des ménages :
• Problèmes de santé : accès insuffisant à l'eau et à l'assainissement, accès limité aux soins de santé ;

surpopulation

• Questions financières : diminution de la capacité à payer le loyer/les paiements hypothécaires, à

acheter de la nourriture, à payer les frais de scolarité, etc.

• Problèmes de résilience : épuisement de l'épargne ; stigmatisation
• Les entreprises (propriétaires, prêteurs, constructeurs, etc., à petite et grande échelle) sont

confrontées :

• Problèmes de capacité : impact potentiel lorsque la main-d'œuvre ne peut pas venir travailler - que ce

soit pour des raisons de santé ou de fermeture

• Questions de durabilité : difficulté à persister avec l'augmentation des non-paiements ou le

ralentissement des délais d'approbation

• Problèmes de croissance : incapacité à se développer en raison d'une demande déprimée et de

retards administratifs

• Les villes et les gouvernements sont confrontés :
• Baisse des revenus alors que les propriétaires (entreprises, propriétaires, résidents) peinent à

respecter leurs obligations

• Fiscalité nationale restreinte, diminution des subventions conditionnelles
• Au fil du temps, la base des taux diminue à mesure que la valeur des biens immobiliers baisse
• Augmentation des obligations financières et des pressions opérationnelles pour faire face aux

situations de logement vulnérables

• Zones en difficulté et établissements de location, où le risque pour les ménages est particulièrement

élevé (c'est-à-dire les centres-villes)

• Conséquences des mesures extraordinaires et du retour aux activités normales

Thinking about Covid-19 and housing Réflexion sur la Covid-19 et le logement

Quality, affordable housing becomes all the more important in a post-Covid

• world. We need to do more with less.

Un logement abordable et de qualité devient d'autant plus important dans un monde post-

• Covid. Nous devons faire plus avec moins.

Our data needs must be shaped by our plans to address the risk, to stimulate recovery and to ensure resilience Nos besoins en données doivent être façonnés par nos plans pour faire face au risque, stimuler la reprise et assurer la résilience

What are our data needs? Three categories of attention:

Quels sont nos besoins en données? Trois catégories d'attention:

Addressing RISK Ensuring RESILIENCE Stimulating RECOVERY

Housing as an asset: land, titling, transactions

http://housingfinanceafrica.org/documents/framing- concept-understanding-the-housing-asset/

The house as a private asset | Housing sector as a national asset

Social asset | a place in the settlement, an address, effective citizenship Economic growth & job creation | backwards and forward linkages, impact of housing on the economy

Financial intermediation | financial sector development, and opportunities for domestic capital investment

Financial asset | can be traded for money and can be used as security against a loan

Economic (income-earning) asset | part of a household’s economic strategy – backyard landlordism or home based entrepreneurialism

Sustainable human settlements | integrated with functioning local economies

Housing as the key to unlocking productivity growth, job creation, and private investment

http://housingfinanceafrica.org/documents/assessing- nigerias-affordable-housing-market/

Access to adequate housing

• Housing quality: affordable housing,

informal settlement upgrading & infrastructure investment and housing microfinance

• Housing mobility: affordable rental

http://housingfinanceafrica.org/resources/yearbook/

Faire face aux RISQUES Assurer la RÉSILIENCE Stimuler la RÉCUPÉRATION

Addressing risk

Fair face aux risques

Demand-side focus on housing quality & credit health Supply-side focus on value chain blockages & developer health

Accent du côté de la demande sur la qualité du logement et la santé du crédit Accent du côté de l'offre sur les blocages de la chaîne de valeur et la santé économique des développeurs

• Housing conditions: roof, walls, floor
• Living conditions: number of sleeping

rooms, density levels

• Access to water & sanitation
• Cooking fuel & power
• Credit indebtedness
• Non-performing loans by market

segment

• Land availability, assembly, titling
• Infrastructure needs and capacity
• Housing starts & completions
• Time & cost of statutory approvals
• Cost per unit, cost per m2 / cost outliers
• Maintenance & management capacity: scoping

supply side

• Number of developers / builders
• Development pipeline
• Access to construction finance

Addressing risk: we see an enormous need for home improvements. For example, in Nigeria…

Aborder le risque: nous constatons un énorme besoin de rénovations des logements. Par exemple, au Nigéria…

Notes: a dwelling is considered informal if one of the materials used in its construction is not finished. Households without access to flush sanitation have no waterborne sewage disposal. A dwelling is overcrowded if the no. of members per sleeping room exceeds 2. Source: DHS Nigeria 2018 20 |

INADEQUATE URBAN HOUSING

(Urban B40 households; 7 million households)

35% 52% 5% 93% 4% 34% 31% 70% Percentage of households Total urban

(Urban B40; 7 million)

Abuja

(Abuja B40; 87,000)

Informal No flush toilet Overcrowded Potentially Inadequate Informal No flush toilet Overcrowded Potentially Inadequate 12% 43% 29% 84% Lagos

(Lagos B40; 1 million)

Informal No flush toilet Overcrowded Potentially Inadequate

Overcrowded dwellings that also don’t have sanitation Overcrowded dwellings that also don’t have sanitation Overcrowded dwellings that also don’t have sanitation

40% 32% 19%

Analysis for CAHF by 71point4

Addressing risk: in some countries, NGOs play an important role in informal settlements. For example in South Africa…

Faire face aux risques: dans certains pays, les ONG jouent un rôle important dans les logements informels. Par exemple en Afrique du Sud…

Source: https://www.internationalbudget.org/wp- content/uploads/asivikelane-number-10-metro.pdf

Stimulating recovery

Stimuler la récupération

Housing has a real impact on the economy: 3,7% in South Africa; 7,1% in Nigeria; 13,8% in Tanzania; 11% in Uganda; 7,3% in Ghana; 8,3% in Kenya; 9,5% in Rwanda. Post-covid recovery plans can rely on housing as a key driver. But we need data for each link in the value chain. Le logement a un impact réel sur l'économie: 3,7% en Afrique du Sud; 7,1% au Nigéria; 13,8% en Tanzanie; 11% en Ouganda; 7,3% au Ghana; 8,3% au Kenya; 9,5% au Rwanda. Les plans de relance post-covid peuvent s'appuyer sur le logement comme moteur clé. Mais nous avons besoin de données pour chaque maillon de la chaîne de valeur.

Ensuring resilience, for example, in South Africa...

Assurer la résilience, par exemple en Afrique du Sud…

The housing asset provides an important source of long-term savings for households, against which they can leverage

• finance. Data management systems should track property

values in support of policy interventions that support property price appreciation. At the same time, working property markets enhance household mobility, which also supports resilience. L'actif immobilier constitue une source importante d'épargne à long terme pour les ménages, contre laquelle ils peuvent

• btenir des financements. Les systèmes de gestion des

données devraient suivre les valeurs des propriétés à l'appui des interventions politiques qui soutiennent l'appréciation des prix des propriétés. Dans le même temps, les marchés de l'immobilier fonctionels améliorent la mobilité des ménages, ce qui favorise également la résilience.

See CAHF’s Citymark dashboards: http://housingfinanceafrica.org/documen t-type/dashboard/

Ensuring resilience, for example, in Tanzania...

Assurer la résilience, par exemple en Tanzanie…

Rental markets are important for household mobility, while also offering household-level landlords an opportunity to earn an income. Tracking rental data allows policy makers and regulators to see gaps where rental supply needs to be stimulated. Les marchés locatifs sont importants pour la mobilité des ménages, tout en offrant également aux propriétaires la possibilité de gagner un

• revenu. Le suivi des données

de location permet aux décideurs et aux régulateurs de voir les lacunes là où l'offre de location doit être stimulée.

Source: Data on properties for rent in Dar es Salaam scraped from Zoom Tanzania, accessed July 2017

AVERAGE RENTAL PRICES FOR 1,2 AND 3 BEDROOM PROPERTIES BY SUBURB

CAHF’s Data Agenda for Africa seeks to collect Headline Indicators along the Value Chain – key market data to address risk, support recovery, and ensure resilience in affordable housing markets Le programme de données du CAHF pour l'Afrique cherche

à collecter des indicateurs clés le long de la chaîne de valeur - des données de marché clés pour faire face aux risques, soutenir la reprise et assurer la résilience sur les marchés du logement abordable

For more detail on the Headline Indicators, their underlying conceptual frameworks, and their associated metadata, see http://housingfinanceafrica.org/documents/headline-indicators-framework-indicators-and-definitions/. The set of indicators has been designed to provide a high-level perspective on the functioning of housing markets while also remaining cognisant of challenges related to data availability. Land assembly / acquisition, bulk infrastructure, and titling

• World Bank DBI Quality of land administration index score (0-30) ● World Bank DBI Transparency of information index (0-6) ● World Bank DBI Geographic coverage index score (0-8) ● World Bank DBI Reliability of infrastructure index score (0-8) ●

Government expenditure on bulk infrastructure as a % of national budget ● Total number of residential properties with a title deed ● Minimum size of a residential plot in urban areas in square meters House construction

• Total number of formal dwellings ● Population of the main urban city ● Ratio of people per habitable room in urban formal dwellings to people per habitable room in urban informal dwellings ● Number of houses completed ● Size of cheapest, newly

built house by a formal developer or contractor in an urban area in m2 ● Number of formal private developers / contractors ● Number of microfinance providers ● Number of microfinance loans outstanding ● Value of microfinance loans outstanding in local currency ● Number of construction finance providers ● Number of housing construction loans outstanding ● Value of housing construction loans outstanding in local currency ● Value of DFI funding invested in residential real estate in local currency

• Government expenditure on housing as a share of national budget GDP ● Construction as a % of GDP ● Residential real estate construction as a % of GDP ● Labour costs as a % of total construction costs in the main urban city ● Time (in days) from

application to completion for residential units in the main urban city ● Cost of standard 50kg bag of cement in local currency Sales, transfer, and rental

• % of population living in households that rent their dwelling ● % of population living in households that own their dwelling ● Ratio of households that rent to households that own ● % of the adult population that borrowed formally ● % of the adult

population that borrowed any money ● Number of new residential transfers ● Number of residential resale transactions ● Rate of churn ● Number of formal estate agents ● Number of transfers financed with a mortgage ● Number of mortgage providers ● Value of residential mortgages issued in local currency ● Number of mortgages outstanding ● Value of residential mortgages outstanding in local currency ● Ratio of mortgages to properties ● Ratio of mortgages to GDP ● Ratio of non- performing mortgages to total outstanding mortgages ● Average down payment on a mortgage as % of mortgage (if required) ● Average mortgage term ● Prevailing mortgage lending rate ● Price of the cheapest, newly built house by a formal developer or contractor in an urban area in local currency ● % of urban households that can afford the cheapest, newly built house by a formal developer or contractor in an urban area ● Average rental for cheapest, newly built house by a formal developer or contractor in an urban area in local currency ● Price to rent ratio in the main urban centre ● Number of procedures to register property ● Time to register property (days) ● Cost to register property ● World Bank DBI Equal access to property rights index (-2-0) ● World Bank DBI Land dispute resolution index (0-8) ● Lending rate Maintenance and ongoing improvements

• Number of approved building permit applications for improvements ● Home improvements as % of total household expenditure

Social and economic infrastructure

• Number of households ● Population growth rate ● Urbanisation rate ● Population pyramid ● Country income pyramid ● % of households living below national poverty line ● Human development index (HDI) country score ● Human development

index (HDI) country ranking ● Gini coefficient ● Unemployment rate ● % of urban population living in slums, informal settlements, or inadequate housing (SDG 11.1.1) ● Transport as % of total household expenditure ● % of population living in households without access to basic services ● % of population living in households without access to basic drinking water services ● % of population living in households without access to basic hygiene services ● % of population living in households without access to basic sanitation services ● % of population living in households without access to basic electricity ● % of population living in households without access to basic education services ● % of population living in households without access to basic health care services ● % of population living in households without access to basic information services ● % of population living in households without access to clean cooking, lighting, and heating fuels ● % of population living in households without access to basic waste collection services ● % of population living in households without access to basic mobility ● Number of properties that are rated for property taxes in the main urban city ● USD Exchange rate ● PPP conversion factor ● List of main urban centres ● Yield on 3-month government bonds ● Yield on 2-year government bonds ● Yield on 10-year government bonds ● Ease of doing business index rank ● GDP growth rate ● GDP per capita in current local currency units

Land assembly / acquisition, bulk infrastructure, and titling House construction Sales, transfer, and rental Maintenance and ongoing improvements Social and economic infrastructure

Integrated urban and local area data management systems require the participation of multiple partners, actively sharing data on their piece of the value chain

Households and

• rganisations

at the community level collecting data on their situations Private sector

• rganisations

delivering, managing and financing affordable housing. Local think tanks and data management centres. Municipal, state, county and national governments in the land, housing, finance and planning sectors Multi-lateral

• rganisations

working domestically and regionally – such as The Data Agenda for Africa seeks to bring together all of these actors and the

data that they collect, to prepare an view

• n the factors

creating risk, or providing

• pportunities for

recovery & resilience.

Thank you! Merci!

Covid-19 and housing: strategies for resilience in South Africa

(11 May 2020)

http://housingfinan ceafrica.org/docum ents/covid-and- housing-strategies- for-resilience-in- south-africa/ Unpacking the potential impact of Covid-19 pandemic

• n the South

African economy and the housing sector

(24 April 2020)

http://housingfinanc eafrica.org/docume nts/unpacking-the- potential-impact-

• f-the-covid-19-

pandemic-on-the- south-african- economy-and-the- housing-sector/ State of disaster: what is Covid-19 teaching us about housing in Africa?

(22 April 2020)

http://housingfin anceafrica.org/d

• cuments/state-
• f-disaster-what-

is-covid-19- teaching-us- about-housing- in-africa/ Stay home: what does Covid-19 mean for affordable housing in Africa?

(30 March 2020)

http://housingfina nceafrica.org/doc uments/stay- home-what-does- covid-19-mean- for-affordable- housing-in-africa//

CAHF’s work across Africa is supported by grants from FSDAfrica and the French Development Agency AfD

Nigerian housing sector responses to the Covid-19 pandemic

(19 May 2020)

http://housingfinan ceafrica.org/docum ents/nigerian- housing-sector- responses-to-the- covid-19- pandemic-nigeria- mortgage- refinance- company/ Rental housing markets in Africa and Covid-19: what is the impact and what measures are needed to ensure resilience?

(25 May 2020)

http://housingfinanceafr ica.org/documents/blog

• rental-housing-

markets-in-africa-and- covid-19-what-impact- does-the-pandemic- have-on-these-markets- and-what-measures- are-needed-to-ensure- their-resilience/

Kecia Rust, Executive Director Kecia@housingfinanceafrica.org www.housingfinanceafrica.org

Thank You