risk from release of biotech trees James S. Clark Nicholas School - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Our charge: Forest health measures for evaluating risk from release of biotech trees James S. Clark Nicholas School of the Environment Department of Statistical Science Duke University

My charge: Climate-change emphasis • Biotechnology risks to forest-health • How they differ from non-biotech efforts • Modelling to assess risks

f forest health – why size-species str Ele lements of tructure? • ‘ Human health ’ : concern for • Forests: ’dynamic size -species structure (SSS) ’ the individual • The basis for conservation and management: thinning practice • Species diversity : is it declining? • Mammals: ‘ body condition ’— Individual species at risk we mostly don’t care about • Example services : individuals • Masting system — base of the food chain • Carbon storage • Wood/fiber • Demography: individual scale • Recreation/spiritual renewal • Sustainable : change in size-species performance impacts structure (SSS) populations • Monitored throughout N America and most European countries

Siz ize-species structure (S (SSS): : climate, management, disturbance • Combined effects of demography • Concentrations in large size classes: recruitment failure, succession • Concentration in small size classes: recruitment bottleneck in crowded stands, invasion Clark et al, National Climate Assessment (2016)

Main points • Risks • Exotic invaders suggest • Escape: pollination, seed the possible dispersal • The role of monitoring • Super competitors that beat • How much is enough? the pervasive limitations • Models could do better • Pathogens/insects released • but not much from natural enemies

The pervasive limitations • Escape • Demography • Fecundity: few individuals • Recruitment : • Pollen expensive, dispersal • Understory water, light inefficient, short-term viability, • Important dynamics limited to hybridization open environments • Attribution: noisy data, but • Seed expensive, dispersal compound interest inefficient • Pathogen regulation • Damping off common • Ex : individual produces 10 6 seeds • Poorly understood, hard to in a population with average replacement of 1 tree attribute • Complications: both host and pathogens respond similarly

A novel invader • Novel traits leading to: • Super-competitors — novel traits that beat the pervasive limitations • Release from natural enemies — vulnerable recruitment stages • Introduction and spread : • LDD of pollen ( Quercus, Pinus ) and seed (wind Populus, many by animal vectors) • Hybridize (e.g., Quercus ) • Recruit : not only open environments, but also understory invasion • Summary : abundant pollen and seed, hybridize, withstand fungal attack and understory competition

Super competitor potential Ailanthus beats the limitations in competitive stands: • Early maturation, high fecundity, root suckering • Establishes in the understory • Must withstand pathogen attack • Allelopathy

Monitoring can be critical: Ailanthus invading closed forest 0.06 50 DF_BW 40 Basal area (m^2/ha) 0.04 Seeds per m2 30 20 0.02 10 0.00 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 Year

Ailanthus invading closed forest 0.06 50 DF_BW ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● 40 ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● Basal area (m^2/ha) ● ● ● ● ● 0.04 ● ● ● ● Seeds per m2 ● ● ● ● 30 ● ● ● ● ● ● 20 0.02 10 10 0.00 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 0 Year

Ailanthus invading closed forest DF_BW 2000 0.06 50 DF_BW ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● 40 ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● Basal area (m^2/ha) ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● 0.04 ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● Seeds per m2 ● ● ● ● ● ● 30 ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● 20 50 m 0.02 ● ● ● ● 10 10 0.00 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 0 Year

Ailanthus invading closed forest DF_BW 2001 0.06 50 DF_BW ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● 40 ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● Basal area (m^2/ha) ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● 0.04 ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● Seeds per m2 ● ● ● ● ● ● 30 ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● 20 50 m 0.02 ● ● ● ● ● ● 10 10 0.00 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 0 Year

Ailanthus invading closed forest DF_BW 2001 0.06 50 DF_BW ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● 40 ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● Basal area (m^2/ha) ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● 0.04 ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● Seeds per m2 ● ● ● ● ● ● 30 ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● 20 50 m 0.02 ● ● ● ● ● ● 10 10 0.00 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 0 Year

Ailanthus invading closed forest DF_BW 2002 0.06 50 DF_BW ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● 40 ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● Basal area (m^2/ha) ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● 0.04 ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● Seeds per m2 ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● 30 ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● 20 50 m 0.02 ● ● ● ● ● ● 10 10 0.00 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 0 Year

Ailanthus invading closed forest DF_BW 2003 0.06 50 DF_BW ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● 40 ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● Basal area (m^2/ha) ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● 0.04 ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● Seeds per m2 ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● 30 ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● 20 50 m 0.02 ● ● ● ● ● ● 10 10 0.00 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 0 Year

Ailanthus invading closed forest DF_BW 2004 0.06 50 DF_BW ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● 40 ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● Basal area (m^2/ha) ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● 0.04 ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● Seeds per m2 ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● 30 ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● 20 50 m 0.02 ● ● ● ● ● ● 10 10 0.00 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 0 Year

Ailanthus invading closed forest DF_BW 2005 0.06 50 DF_BW ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● 40 ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● Basal area (m^2/ha) ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● 0.04 ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● Seeds per m2 ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● 30 ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● 20 50 m 0.02 ● ● ● ● ● ● 10 10 0.00 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 0 Year

Ailanthus invading closed forest DF_BW 2006 0.06 50 DF_BW ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● 40 ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● Basal area (m^2/ha) ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● 0.04 ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● Seeds per m2 ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● 30 ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● 20 50 m 0.02 ● ● ● ● ● ● 10 10 0.00 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 0 Year

Ailanthus invading closed forest DF_BW 2007 0.06 50 DF_BW ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● 40 ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● Basal area (m^2/ha) ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● 0.04 ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● Seeds per m2 ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● 30 ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● 20 50 m 0.02 ● ● ● ● ● ● 10 10 0.00 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 0 Year

Ailanthus invading closed forest DF_BW 2008 0.06 50 DF_BW ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● 40 ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● Basal area (m^2/ha) ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● 0.04 ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● Seeds per m2 ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● 30 ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● 20 50 m 0.02 ● ● ● ● ● ● 10 10 0.00 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 0 Year