Revised October 14, 2015
ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (August 2014–August 2015) 66 64 62 60 58 56 54 52 50 48 46 44 Sept-14 Oct Nov Dec Jan-15 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Purchasing Managers' Index New Orders Production Employment Inventories Source: Institute for Supply Management
Percentage Changes in Manufacturing Production, August 2014–August 2015 Percent 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% Aug-14 Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan-15 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug -0.5% -1.0% Manufacturing Durable Goods Nondurable Goods Source: Federal Reserve Board
Year-Over-Year Industrial Production Growth, August 2014–August 2015 Percent 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% Aug-14 Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan-15 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Industrial Production Manufacturing Durable Goods Nondurable Goods Source: Federal Reserve Board
Manufacturing Production and Manufacturing Capacity Manufacturing Production Utilization (SIC) (2012=100) Capacity Utilization, 2014-2015 107 77% 106 105 76% 104 103 75% 102 101 74% 100 99 98 73% Jan-14 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan-15 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Manufacturing Production Manufacturing Capacity Utilization Source: Federal Reserve Board
Real Gross Domestic Product (Chained 2009 Dollars) 5% 4.6% 4.3% 3.9% 4% 3.0% 3% 2.8% 2.5% 2.5% 2.1% 2.0% 1.8% 2% 1% 0.6% 0% 2014:I II III IV 2015:I II III IV 2016:I II III IV Real GDP Forecast: -1% ↑ 2.4% (2014) -0.9% ↑ 2.3% (2015) ↑ 2.5% (2016) -2% Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, NAM calculations using Moody’s Analytics simulation model
NAM Manufacturers’ Outlook Survey by Quarter, 2013–2015 91.2% 88.7% 88.5% 87.3% 86.1% 85.9% 83.1% 78.1% 76.3% 76.1% 72.3% 70.1% 69.2% 67.3% 51.8% 2012:1 2012:2 2012:3 2012:4 2013:1 2013:2 2013:3 2013:4 2014:1 2014:2 2014:3 2014:4 2015:1 2015:2 2015:3 Note: Percentage of respondents who characterized the current business outlook as somewhat or very positive.
Expected Growth of Manufacturing Sales, Investment and Employment 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% Q1:2014 Q2:2014 Q3:2014 Q4:2014 Q1:2015 Q2:2015 Q3:2015 Sales Investment Employment Avg. 12-Month Growth Rates Sales: ↑ 2.0% Investment: ↑ 0.7% Source: NAM Manufacturers’ Outlook Survey Note: Expected growth rates are annual averages. Employment: ↑ 0.3%
Primary Current Business Challenges, Third Quarter 2015 Unfavorable business climate (e.g., taxes, regulations) 79.4% Rising health care/insurance costs 77.5% Weaker domestic economy and sales for our products 50.7% Attracting and retaining a quality workforce 49.7% Strengthened U.S. dollar relative to other currencies 47.7% Weaker global growth and slower export sales 37.6% Rising raw material costs for our products 12.4% Challenges with access to capital 4.9% Source: NAM Manufacturers’ Outlook Survey Note: Respondents were able to check all that apply. Therefore, responses exceed 100 percent.
“Which of the following statements regarding the Federal Reserve’s possible normalization of rates would be true for your firm?” The FOMC's actions stem from improvements in the overall U.S. economy, and it is time for 12.3% the Fed to "take its foot off of the accelerator" 23.5% a little to reflect that progress. There are still sufficient weaknesses in the U.S. economy, even with recent progress. As such, the Fed should not be in a hurry to raise rates. It should wait until 2016 to start doing so. 64.2% I have no opinion. Source: NAM Manufacturers’ Outlook Survey
Effective Federal Funds Rate, 2005–2015 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: Federal Reserve Board
Purchasing Managers’ Indices for the Top 10 Export Markets for U.S. Manufactured Goods (September 2015) 53.0 52.3 52.1 51.5 51.0 49.2 48.6 47.2 47.0 44.4 Canada Mexico China Japan United Germany Brazil Netherlands South Korea Hong Kong Kingdom Emerging Markets Manufacturing PMI: 48.5 Eurozone Manufacturing PMI: 52.0 Global Manufacturing PMI: 50.6 U.S. Manufacturing PMI (Markit): 53.1 Source: Markit
Year-Over-Year Growth in Goods Exports and Imports, August 2014–August 2015 6% 4% 2% 0% Aug-14 Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan-15 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug -2% -4% -6% -8% -10% -12% Goods Exports Goods Imports Source: U.S. Department of Commerce
Trade-Weighted U.S. Dollar Index Against Major Currencies Index (1973=100) (Currency Units per U.S. Dollar) 94 92 90 88 86 84 82 80 78 76 74 Jan-14 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan-15 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Source: Federal Reserve Board
– Monthly Changes in Employment (September 2014–September 2015, in Thousands of Employees) 423 329 266 260 250 245 223 221 201 187 142 136 119 45 23 19 17 11 9 6 6 -18 -9 3 0 1 Sep-14 Oct Nov Dec Jan-15 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Nonfarm Payrolls Manufacturing Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Employment Situation, 2013–2015 Millions Unemployment of Workers Rate 12.5 8.5% 12.4 8.0% 12.3 7.5% 12.2 7.0% 12.1 12.0 6.5% 11.9 6.0% 11.8 5.5% 11.7 5.0% 11.6 11.5 4.5% 2013 2014 2015 Manufacturing Employment Unemployment Rate Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Manufacturing Sectors with the Largest Net Employment Gains (September 2014 to September 2015, in thousands of employees) Transportation equipment 46.0 Food manufacturing 15.9 Furniture and related products 15.3 Nonmetallic mineral products 13.8 Plastics and rubber products 13.5 Miscellaneous nondurable goods manufacturing 12.5 Miscellaneous durable goods manufacturing 12.0 Wood products 5.7 Chemicals 5.1 Petroleum and coal products 2.0 Computer and electronic products 1.4 Electrical equipment and appliances 1.2 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Manufacturing Job Openings, Hires and Separations (January 2014–July 2015, in thousands of workers) 350 325 300 275 250 225 200 Jan-14 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan-15 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Job Openings Hires Separations Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Monthly Business and Consumer Consumer Sentiment Surveys NFIB Small Confidence Indices Business Index 120 110 110 105 100 100 90 95 80 70 90 60 85 50 80 40 75 30 20 70 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Conference Board Consumer Confidence NFIB Small Business Optimism Source: University of Michigan/Thomson Reuters, Conference Board, National Federation of Independent Business
Housing Market Situation Housing Starts, Permits NAHB Housing (in thousands of units) Market Index 1,600 65 60 1,400 55 1,200 50 45 1,000 40 800 35 600 30 25 400 20 200 15 0 10 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Housing Starts Housing Permits NAHB Housing Market Index Source: U.S. Census Bureau, National Association of Home Builders
Manufacturing Construction Spending, 2005–2015 (Value of Private Construction Put in Place, in Billions of Dollars) $95 $90 $85 $80 $75 $70 $65 $60 $55 $50 $45 $40 $35 $30 $25 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Year-Over-Year Percentage Changes in the Producer Price Index, September 2014–September 2015 Percent 3% 2% 1% 0% Sep-14 Oct Nov Dec Jan-15 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep -1% -2% Final Demand Final Demand Less Food and Energy Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
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