Revenue Forecast Legislative Fiscal Division Fortune Magazine 1. - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Revenue Forecast Legislative Fiscal Division Fortune Magazine 1. Quarterly growth in GDP Not everyone is 2. Monthly Job growth feeling the recovery: 3. Unemployment rate the economy as told by 8 charts Lance 4. Uneven
Legislative Fiscal Division
Fortune Magazine – “Not everyone is feeling the recovery: the economy as told by 8 charts” Lance Lambert November 14
0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 1975:2 1977:1 1978:4 1980:3 1982:2 1984:1 1985:4 1987:3 1989:2 1991:1 1992:4 1994:3 1996:2 1998:1 1999:4 2001:3 2003:2 2005:1 2006:4 2008:3 2010:2 2012:1 2013:4 2015:3 2017:2 2019:1
Quarterly Montana GSP not seasonally adjusted
IHS Markit data
33.1%
6.9%
Montana DLI dashboard
Montana lost 63,500 in employment in April By September 42,600 have been regained
Note employment shown below includes self- employed, while US data to the left does not. In Montana, total employment is down 12,000 jobs, while payroll employment is down 21,700 jobs.
Montana DLI dashboard Montana’s unemployment rate reached 11.9% in April In September the rate was 5.3% Prior to the pandemic it was 3.5%
Montana Counties from 8.3% Garfield darkest blue above to 1.8% Glacier lightest blue above Montana as a whole is 5.3%
County data is not seasonally adjusted. DLI data.
Montana DLI dashboard
counted as unemployed
kids as schools are remote and day cares are unreliable with frequent quarantine orders
roughly 17,000 in April, but has nearly fully recovered, down only 0.5% in September. However, an estimated 20,000 parents have had to decrease work hours or make
lack of childcare and the need to supervise children learning at home.
15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 2006:1 2006:3 2007:1 2007:3 2008:1 2008:3 2009:1 2009:3 2010:1 2010:3 2011:1 2011:3 2012:1 2012:3 2013:1 2013:3 2014:1 2014:3 2015:1 2015:3 2016:1 2016:3 2017:1 2017:3 2018:1 2018:3 2019:1 2019:3 2020:1 2020:3
Employment (NAICS), Manufacturing (Thous.)
Employment (NAICS), Manufacturing (Thous.)
20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 2006:1 2006:3 2007:1 2007:3 2008:1 2008:3 2009:1 2009:3 2010:1 2010:3 2011:1 2011:3 2012:1 2012:3 2013:1 2013:3 2014:1 2014:3 2015:1 2015:3 2016:1 2016:3 2017:1 2017:3 2018:1 2018:3 2019:1 2019:3 2020:1 2020:3
Employment (NAICS), Construction (Thous.)
Employment (NAICS), Construction (Thous.)
July-October
91% of last five year average
last 5 year average, the Flathead did well Doing well – Outdoor activities
service down 12.4% Not doing well
in the first four months of FY 2021 over previous years
4 6 8 10 12
Employment (NAICS), Natural Resources & Mining (Thous.)
Employment (NAICS), Natural Resources & Mining (Thous.)
Gross State Product
October IHS Markit Gross State Product (GSP) Slower Growth next four years From 2019 to 2023 forecast grows 7.1% over four years or an average of 1.7% per year From 2015 to 2019, the previous four year’s growth is 11.1% or an average of 2.7% per year
20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Average growth 1.7% / year Average growth 2.7% / year
IHS Markit Forecast Industry Share of Gross State Product
Sector change from 2019 to 2023 is significant:
from 7.7% to 8.6%
15.3%
1.8% (mining peaked at over 6% from 2008 – 2014)
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
2019 2023 Sum of Government Sum of Other Services Sum of Leisure & Hosp Sum of Health+ Sum of Professional+ Sum of Real Estate+ Sum of Finance and In Sum of Information Sum of Trade, Utils Sum of Manufacturing Sum of Construction Sum of Mining Sum of Agriculture, F
close to “average” year
debt at the same rate as before
Personal Income
October IHS Markit Spike in transfers in 2020 from stimulus packages FY 2020 assumes two stimulus packages Slower Growth next four years From 2019 to 2023 forecast personal Income grows 12.2% over four years or an average of 2.9% per year From 2015 to 2019, the previous four year’s growth is 18.3% or an average of 4.3% per year
10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Other inc Transfers Div, interest, rent Other labor inc Wages Average growth 2.9% / year Average growth 4.3% / year
Technology and automation Innovation Remote work Relocation
New Voters and New Residents
Newly registered voters from September 1, 2020 through election day, with new id numbers by decade of birth totaled 21,869
Those born after 1990 are likely to be voters that are new to voting and may or may not be new to Montana. There were 9,330 new voters born before 1990 or 1.2% of registered voters Those born before 1990 may be new to voting or may be in migrants to Montana. A total of 12,539 new voters were born before 1990 or 1.7% of registered voters.
Data from the Secretary of State
4,396 4,934 3,576 2,547 2,739 2,370 961 294 52
2000 1990 1980 1970 1960 1950 1940 1930 1920
Stimulus / Surge / Vaccine
Economic Forecast to be Updated
Vaccine Stimulus
Revised modeling with current surge
Downward: Stimulus assumed in the October IHS Markit forecast, but not the November Revised IHS Markit modeling with current case surge Upward: Vaccine availability was not included
penalty free – aka Safe Harbor
refunds
avoid higher taxes in 2021 in anticipation of higher federal tax rates
many companies doing well with the PPP and state programs
0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0%
Year-Over-Year Monthly Withholding Since FY 2019
Monthly Withholding Growth 3 Month Moving Average Pre-pandemic 6.8% Post-pandemic 3.9%
0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0%
Year-Over-Year Monthly Withholding Since FY 2019
Monthly Withholding Growth 3 Month Moving Average Wage Growth
General Fund Balance $452 Budget Stabilization Reserve Fund Balance, $118 Fire Fund Balance, $55 $0 $100 $200 $300 $400 $500 $600 $700 Beginning FY 2021
Reserve Balances Beginning FY 2021 ($ millions)
LFD training on Managing Volatility