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Research Project: Development of decision support system for optimal agricultural production under global environment changes

The University of Tokyo National Agriculture and Food Research Organization National Institute of Agro-Environmental Sciences Ishikawa Prefectural University Toyama Prefecture Fukui Prefecture Research Program on Climate Change Adaptation

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• S. Ninomiya (University of Tokyo)

Background

• Food shortage crisis

– Population increase by 200,000 per day – Usage shift from food to bio-fuel – Meat consumption increase – Unstable and short water supply – Land shortage – Damage by global warming and frequent extreme whether conditions

• Needs for stable and profitable productivity against global

warming

– High productivity – Profit performance – Sustainability

• Low impact on environment, low emission
• Sustainable resource management

– Food safety

Objectives

To Develop Decision support system for optimal agricultural production under global environment changes

• In order to realize robust, stable and profitable agriculture under long-

term global warming and frequent extreme weather conditions

• The system realizes

– Optimal crop management, considering profitability – Optimal water management in an area of a watershed

• Expected outcomes of studies

– Stable food supply – Stable farm profitability – Optimal usage of water resource – Sustainable agriculture

Former related studies by the group

• Modeling

– High resolution grid data generation model – Rice yield simulator – Heat and water transfer model

• Efficient field monitoring systems

– Filedserver, Fieldrouter, Agriserver, eKakashi

• Framework

– Ground data database – Data integration framework - Metbroker

Rice yield simulator

• No considerations on soil

and water conditions

• Terribly low resolution of

prediction

• No guidance for optimal

cropping

Outline of research

Climatic downscaling data s y s t e m i z a t i

• n

Crop water demand Soil condition and resource availability Local climatic data

Weather model for high resolution data

High resolution data generation for local area

Crop modeling

Prediction of yield and quality

Soil and water modeling

Estimation of water resource and soil condition

Decision support system for optimal cropping

Farm base optimal cropping for productivity and profitability Guideline for local water management Monitoring data for assimilation and parameter tuning

Evaluation of system by ground monitoring

Development of monitoring system Integration of models Easy-to-use user interface Evaluation at test beds

Weather model for locally useful high resolution data

DIAS database DIAS database

・ Reanalysis data ・ Climatic Senario data （CMIP 5） Uncertainty evaluation based on multiple climatic scenarios

Statistical and dynamic downscaling

• f climatic and weather data

Daily and hourly high resolution data

• Temperature
• Rainfall
• Wind speed
• Solar rad.
• Snow fall
• Humidity
• long-wave rad.

・Seasonal prediction ・Past to future Y1980-y2030 High resolution data

SW model SW model Crop model Crop model

Storage starch (ST) Storage starch Accumulation Vegetative Tissues (V) Vegetative tissue growth Grain Yield (Y) Root Photosynthesis Sugar (Su) Maintenance respiration Grain growth Translocation leaf N leaf N accumulation Grain N soil N uptake Grain N accumulation Senescence Translocation Root growth dead N Development DVI Expansion LAI Senescence Attainable Yield Spikelet # Spikelet sterility Differentiation Degeneration Biomass growth and yield formation Plant N dynamics LAI development Phenological development Spikelet number stem N accumulation stem N Senescence Translocation

Rice Wheat and barley

Crop model to consider quality Crop model to consider quality

Double cropping optimization against global warming

・Optimal cropping timing, Optimal variety ・Risk management, optimal land productivity ・Optimal resource utilization

Double cropping optimization against global warming

・Optimal cropping timing, Optimal variety ・Risk management, optimal land productivity ・Optimal resource utilization

Climatic data

・Crop growth ・Yield and quality ・Prediction of crop damage

Soil/water model For water supply and soil moisture Ground data for tuning and evaluation

Crop growth model Crop growth model

食糧自給率向上のための水田の高度利用 食糧自給率向上のための水田の高度利用

Double cropping of rice and wheat

Prediction of quality degrading

・Demand prediction and optimal water management and usage plan ・Combination with crop model to make more accuracy ・Optimal reduction of enviromental impact by material cycle model ・Demand prediction and optimal water management and usage plan ・Combination with crop model to make more accuracy ・Optimal reduction of enviromental impact by material cycle model

Soil moisture Temperature, nutrition Amount and quality change of local water resource

Crop production

Cropping system change Land use change Water availability Water demand and usage pattern

Crop model

• 10

10 20 30 40 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 Temperature(℃ )

10cm

Temperature(℃)

material cycle modeling under climatic change

Soil and water modeling for local circulation Soil and water modeling for local circulation

Local water cycle Nutrient salt cycle Chemical impact

Evaluation of system by ground monitoring Evaluation of system by ground monitoring

Ground monitoring data Ground monitoring data Evaluation Evaluation Evaluation of system based on productivity and profit performance Evaluation of system based on productivity and profit performance

Development of monitoring systems operational under poor network and power infrastructure Development of monitoring systems operational under poor network and power infrastructure Data assimilation Parameter tuning

Models Models

DSS for optimal crop production DSS for optimal crop production

Crop model Soil and Water Models Local climatic model Ground monitoring Data exchange framework

DIAS Database

Downscaling data Ground data Local climatic data

DSS for OCP

Tools for optimal cropping Tools for optimal local water management User interface

• Farm base optimal cropping for productivity and profitability

– Optimal amount and timing of fertilizer and irrigation, selection cropping period and variety, double cropping system

• Guideline for local water management

Test beds in three prefectures in Hokuriku

• Test beds

– Toyama, Ishikawa and Fukui Prefectures – Tedorigawa watershed

• Reasons

– Urgency

• Main production area for high quality rice
• Rice quality is recently degrading because of high temperature
• Much reduction snowfall which is resource of paddy water in summer, is

expected

• Optimal secondary crop may shift from barley to wheat because of global

warming

– Advantages for model development and evalution

• Various topology and local climatic conditions
• One of the most important rice production area in Japan
• Double cropping is popular
• Water resource amount and water quality, soil conditions have been

surveyed in detail by former research projects

Expected outcomes of project

• Generation of high resolution climatic data useful for site-

specific agriculture

• Crop model to consider quality
• Mutual combination of crop model and soil/water model

– Soil condition and water supply ability to contribute for crop model – Crop water demand to optimize water management

• Optimal cropping timing and system can be suggested

– Stable and profitable robust production even under global warming and unstable condition – Stable supply and price of agro products

• System concept will not depend on local conditions and be

usable in other places

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Thank you very much