Research findings broadacre impacts and adaptations Dr Andrew - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Research findings – broadacre impacts and adaptations Dr Andrew Moore, CSIRO

CSIRO’s SLA2030 Project Project Team Role in SLA2030 – Broadacre Grazing Industries Andrew Moore – Cross-Regional Impacts & – Cross-Regional Impacts & Afshin Ghahramani Afshin Ghahramani Adaptation 2030-2070 Matthew Harrison – Science Support for Regional Eric Zurcher Teams Jenny Carter – Exploration of Adaptation- Bob Godfree Related Issues Richard Culvenor – Modelling Uncertainties

Cross-Regional Impacts & Adaptation • Magnitude of climate change impact – Where across southern Australia? – What livestock enterprises most affected? – What livestock enterprises most affected? • Rate of climate change impact • Uncertainty of impacts • Effectiveness of adaptation options Modelling the Only Viable Approach

Representative Grazing Systems • 25 locations across southern Australia – Representative of regions of equal GVAP • 5 livestock enterprises • 5 livestock enterprises – Merino & crossbred ewes, cows, wethers, steers • Same weather+soils+pastures for each location • Same costs & prices for each enterprise • Individual management systems • Weighted (roughly) by current value of production

Future Climates 12 future climates considered: • Only one SRES scenario (A2) • Projections for 2030, 2050, 2070 • Projections for 2030, 2050, 2070 – GCM predictions of changes in rainfall variability in the “downscaled” weather inputs • 4 Global Circulation Models – capture “projection uncertainty”

GrassGro & the GRAZPLAN Models • 25 years of modelling & Climate Economics $ decision support Livestock Management • Physiologically based models • Physiologically based models Pasture Pasture – Usable across southern Australia Soil – Genetics x Environment x Management – Can extrapolate to future climate • Widely used by industry ! ( – Captures key management options ! ( ! ( ( ! ! ( (“profit drivers”) ! ! ( ( ! ( ! ( ! ! ( ( ! ! ( ( ( ! ! ( ! ! ( ( ! ( ! ! ( ( ( ! ! ( ! ( ! ! ( ! ! ( ( ( ( ! ( ! ! ! ( ( ! ! ! ( ( ! ( ( ! ( ! ! ( ( ! ! ( ( ! ( ! ( ! ( ( ! ! ( ! ( ! ( ! ( ( ! ! ! ( ( ! ( ! ( ! ( ( ! ! ( ( ! ! ( ( ! ( ! ! ( ! ( ( ! ! ( ( ! ( ! ! ( ! ( ( ! ! ( ! ! ( ( ! ! ( ! ( ( ( ! ! ( ( ! ! ( ! ! ! ! ( ! ( ( ! ( ( ! ( ( ! ( ! ( ! ! ( ! ( ( ! ! ( ( ( ! ! ( ! ( ! ( ! ( ! ( ( ! ! ( ( !

Financial Calculations • All modelling carried out as S.R. experiments • Value of wool & meat production recorded – Recent average costs & prices – Recent average costs & prices • Operating profit calculated – including maintenance P & capital cost of livestock • “Optimal sustainable stocking rate” – maximises operating profit, as long as... – frequency of low ground cover not too high

Impacts: Pasture Production CCSM3 ECHAM5/MPI-OM GFDL-CM2.1 UKMO-HadGEM1 2030 2030 2050 2070 -60% -30% 0 +30% +60%

Impacts: Pasture Production Merino ewes, average over 4 GCMs • Large decline in ANPP – much of it by 2030 2030: -18% 2030: -18% • Greater ANPP declines in • Greater ANPP declines in drier environments – eastern WA wheatbelt is an exception 2050: -21% 2070: -30% -60% -30% 0 +30% +60%

Impacts: Profitability Average over 4 GCMs & 5 enterprises • Much greater negative impact on profit than ANPP – Sustainable SR reduced 2030: -38% 2030: -38% – Risk as much as average • Consistently greater relative declines in drier environments • Beef cows do somewhat better in relative terms 2050: -48% – but least profitable under 1970-99 climate 2070: -67%

Impacts: Key Messages • Major uncertainty – rainfall projections • Pasture growth & utilization • Value of production & profit • Largest impact at the dry margin • Differences between enterprises small relative to changes over time

Adaptation Options Higher soil fertility • Feedbase modifications Summer-growing perennial – Reduce periods of low ground cover ground cover Remove annual legumes Remove annual legumes • Livestock genetic gains Increased size of animals Increased size of sires – achievable with current techniques More wool at same body size • Livestock management Increased conception rate Stocking rate Feedlotting in poor summers

Effectiveness of Single Adaptations • 100% relative effectiveness = return to 1970-1999 profit Adaptation 2030 2050 2070 Higher soil fertility Higher soil fertility 62% 62% 67% 67% 44% 44% Summer-growing perennial 45% 50% 41% Increased conception rate 15% 32% 31% Increased size of animals 11% 27% 28% Feedlotting in poor summers 15% 21% 24% More wool at same body size 7% 16% 16% Increased size of sires 3% 6% 5% Remove annual legumes 1% 1% 1% (Average over 4 GCMs, 5 enterprises & 25 locations)

Relative Change in in Profit Combining Adaptations -200% -150% -100% 100% 150% 200% -50% 50% 0% Condobolin Kyancutta Lake Grace Lameroo Esperance Dalwallinu Swan Hill Cummins Birchip Narrandera Wellington Bakers Hill Cootamundra Stawell Tatura Mount Barker 2030-70 Lucindale Hamilton Colac Armidale (Merino ewes, average over 4 GCMs) Goulburn No Adaptations Katanning Mansfield Ellinbank Launceston Loss Reduction Profit Increase Profit

Relative Change in in Profit Combining Adaptations -200% -150% -100% 100% 150% 200% -50% 50% 0% Condobolin Kyancutta Lake Grace Lameroo Esperance Dalwallinu Swan Hill Cummins Birchip Narrandera Wellington Bakers Hill Cootamundra Stawell Tatura Mount Barker Lucindale Hamilton 2030 Colac Armidale (Merino ewes, average over 4 GCMs) Goulburn No Adaptations With Adaptations Katanning Mansfield Ellinbank Launceston Loss Reduction Profit Increase Profit

Relative Change in in Profit Combining Adaptations -200% -150% -100% 100% 150% 200% -50% 50% 0% Condobolin Kyancutta Lake Grace Lameroo Esperance Dalwallinu Swan Hill Cummins Birchip Narrandera Wellington Bakers Hill Cootamundra Stawell Tatura Mount Barker Lucindale Hamilton 2050 Colac Armidale (Merino ewes, average over 4 GCMs) Goulburn No Adaptations With Adaptations Katanning Mansfield Ellinbank Launceston Loss Reduction Profit Increase Profit

Relative Change in in Profit Combining Adaptations -200% -150% -100% 100% 150% 200% -50% 50% 0% Condobolin Kyancutta Lake Grace Lameroo Esperance Dalwallinu Swan Hill Cummins Birchip Narrandera Wellington Bakers Hill Cootamundra Stawell Tatura Mount Barker Lucindale Hamilton 2070 Colac Armidale (Merino ewes, average over 4 GCMs) Goulburn No Adaptations With Adaptations Katanning Mansfield Ellinbank Launceston Loss Reduction Profit Increase Profit

Adaptations: Key Messages • Majority of impact can be recovered • No silver bullet – Multiple adaptations likely to be needed – Multiple adaptations likely to be needed – Best combinations depend on location & enterprise • Implementation issues – Soil fertility: interactions with cropping – Lucerne: soil constraints – Adoption of quantitative genetics • Running to stand still?

Cross-Regional Impacts & Adaptation Magnitude of impact • Potential for significant decrease in (without adaptation) value of livestock production • Especially at the dry margin of the • Especially at the dry margin of the cereal-livestock zone Rate of impact • Depends on rate of rainfall change • Significant impact by 2030 Uncertainty • Large – but the trends are there Effectiveness of • Large but incomplete adaptation • Decreases over time at dry locations