Research findings broadacre impacts and adaptations Dr Andrew - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Research findings – broadacre impacts and adaptations

Dr Andrew Moore, CSIRO

CSIRO’s SLA2030 Project

Project Team

Andrew Moore Afshin Ghahramani

Role in SLA2030

– Broadacre Grazing Industries – Cross-Regional Impacts & Afshin Ghahramani Matthew Harrison Eric Zurcher Jenny Carter Bob Godfree Richard Culvenor – Cross-Regional Impacts & Adaptation 2030-2070 – Science Support for Regional Teams – Exploration of Adaptation- Related Issues – Modelling Uncertainties

Cross-Regional Impacts & Adaptation

• Magnitude of climate change impact

– Where across southern Australia? – What livestock enterprises most affected? – What livestock enterprises most affected?

• Rate of climate change impact
• Uncertainty of impacts
• Effectiveness of adaptation options

Modelling the Only Viable Approach

Representative Grazing Systems

• 25 locations across southern Australia

– Representative of regions of equal GVAP

• 5 livestock enterprises
• 5 livestock enterprises

– Merino & crossbred ewes, cows, wethers, steers

• Same weather+soils+pastures for each location
• Same costs & prices for each enterprise
• Individual management systems
• Weighted (roughly) by current value of production

Future Climates

12 future climates considered:

• Only one SRES scenario (A2)
• Projections for 2030, 2050, 2070
• Projections for 2030, 2050, 2070

– GCM predictions of changes in rainfall variability in the “downscaled” weather inputs

• 4 Global Circulation Models

– capture “projection uncertainty”

GrassGro & the GRAZPLAN Models

• 25 years of modelling &

decision support

• Physiologically based models

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Pasture Livestock Climate Economics Management

• Physiologically based models

– Usable across southern Australia – Genetics x Environment x Management – Can extrapolate to future climate

• Widely used by industry

– Captures key management options (“profit drivers”)

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Soil Pasture

Financial Calculations

• All modelling carried out as S.R. experiments
• Value of wool & meat production recorded

– Recent average costs & prices – Recent average costs & prices

• Operating profit calculated

– including maintenance P & capital cost of livestock

• “Optimal sustainable stocking rate”

– maximises operating profit, as long as... – frequency of low ground cover not too high

Impacts: Pasture Production

CCSM3 ECHAM5/MPI-OM GFDL-CM2.1 UKMO-HadGEM1

2030 2030 2050 2070

• 60%

+60% +30%

• 30%

Impacts: Pasture Production

2030: -18%

• Large decline in ANPP

– much of it by 2030

• Greater ANPP declines in

Merino ewes, average over 4 GCMs

2030: -18% 2050: -21% 2070: -30%

• Greater ANPP declines in

drier environments

– eastern WA wheatbelt is an exception

• 60%

+60% +30%

• 30%

Impacts: Profitability

• Much greater negative impact on

profit than ANPP

– Sustainable SR reduced

2030: -38%

Average over 4 GCMs & 5 enterprises

– Risk as much as average

• Consistently greater relative declines

in drier environments

• Beef cows do somewhat better in

relative terms

– but least profitable under 1970-99 climate

2030: -38% 2050: -48% 2070: -67%

Impacts: Key Messages

• Major uncertainty – rainfall projections
• Pasture growth & utilization
• Value of production & profit
• Largest impact at the dry margin
• Differences between enterprises small

relative to changes over time

Adaptation Options

• Feedbase modifications

– Reduce periods of low ground cover Higher soil fertility Summer-growing perennial Remove annual legumes ground cover

• Livestock genetic gains

– achievable with current

techniques

• Livestock management

Remove annual legumes Increased size of animals Increased size of sires More wool at same body size Increased conception rate Stocking rate Feedlotting in poor summers

Effectiveness of Single Adaptations

• 100% relative effectiveness = return to 1970-1999 profit

Adaptation 2030 2050 2070 Higher soil fertility 62% 67% 44% Higher soil fertility 62% 67% 44% Summer-growing perennial 45% 50% 41% Increased conception rate 15% 32% 31% Increased size of animals 11% 27% 28% Feedlotting in poor summers 15% 21% 24% More wool at same body size 7% 16% 16% Increased size of sires 3% 6% 5% Remove annual legumes 1% 1% 1%

(Average over 4 GCMs, 5 enterprises & 25 locations)

Combining Adaptations

Profit Increase

100% 150% 200%

in Profit

(Merino ewes, average over 4 GCMs) Loss Profit Reduction

• 200%
• 150%
• 100%
• 50%

0% 50% Condobolin Kyancutta Lake Grace Lameroo Esperance Dalwallinu Swan Hill Cummins Birchip Narrandera Wellington Bakers Hill Cootamundra Stawell Tatura Mount Barker Lucindale Hamilton Colac Armidale Goulburn Katanning Mansfield Ellinbank Launceston

Relative Change in

No Adaptations

2030-70

Combining Adaptations

Profit Increase

100% 150% 200%

in Profit

(Merino ewes, average over 4 GCMs) Loss Profit Reduction

• 200%
• 150%
• 100%
• 50%

0% 50% Condobolin Kyancutta Lake Grace Lameroo Esperance Dalwallinu Swan Hill Cummins Birchip Narrandera Wellington Bakers Hill Cootamundra Stawell Tatura Mount Barker Lucindale Hamilton Colac Armidale Goulburn Katanning Mansfield Ellinbank Launceston

Relative Change in

With Adaptations No Adaptations

2030

Combining Adaptations

Profit Increase

100% 150% 200%

in Profit

(Merino ewes, average over 4 GCMs) Loss Profit Reduction

• 200%
• 150%
• 100%
• 50%

0% 50% Condobolin Kyancutta Lake Grace Lameroo Esperance Dalwallinu Swan Hill Cummins Birchip Narrandera Wellington Bakers Hill Cootamundra Stawell Tatura Mount Barker Lucindale Hamilton Colac Armidale Goulburn Katanning Mansfield Ellinbank Launceston

Relative Change in

With Adaptations No Adaptations

2050

Combining Adaptations

Profit Increase

100% 150% 200%

in Profit

(Merino ewes, average over 4 GCMs) Loss Profit Reduction

• 200%
• 150%
• 100%
• 50%

0% 50% Condobolin Kyancutta Lake Grace Lameroo Esperance Dalwallinu Swan Hill Cummins Birchip Narrandera Wellington Bakers Hill Cootamundra Stawell Tatura Mount Barker Lucindale Hamilton Colac Armidale Goulburn Katanning Mansfield Ellinbank Launceston

Relative Change in

With Adaptations No Adaptations

2070

Adaptations: Key Messages

• Majority of impact can be recovered
• No silver bullet

– Multiple adaptations likely to be needed – Multiple adaptations likely to be needed – Best combinations depend on location & enterprise

• Implementation issues

– Soil fertility: interactions with cropping – Lucerne: soil constraints – Adoption of quantitative genetics

• Running to stand still?

Cross-Regional Impacts & Adaptation

Magnitude of impact (without adaptation)

• Potential for significant decrease in

value of livestock production

• Especially at the dry margin of the
• Especially at the dry margin of the

cereal-livestock zone Rate of impact

• Depends on rate of rainfall change
• Significant impact by 2030

Uncertainty

• Large – but the trends are there

Effectiveness of adaptation

• Large but incomplete
• Decreases over time at dry

locations