Renewables and Challenge of Balancing 12 July 2016, New Delhi - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Renewables and Challenge of Balancing 12 July 2016, New Delhi - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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National Conference on Post Paris Climate Action Indias INDC: Technological Options, Renewables and Challenge of Balancing 12 July 2016, New Delhi Integrated Research and Action for Development (IRADe) 1 T echnology Options Model

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SLIDE 1

National Conference on “ Post Paris Climate Action”

India’s INDC: Technological Options, Renewables and Challenge of Balancing

12 July 2016, New Delhi

Integrated Research and Action for Development (IRADe)

1

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SLIDE 2

T echnology Options Model

  • Minimizes discounted total energy system cost
  • The Model balances every hour demand and

supply

  • Issues addressed
  • What would be the structure of power sector
  • Role of renewables and balancing power
  • Time horizon: 2012 to 2047
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SLIDE 3

Model Scenarios

  • INDC targets of 175 GW and 40% Non-fossil fuel capacity

by 2030 reaching 55% by 2047

  • Maximum Potential: Solar 748 GW & Wind 302 GW
  • Balancing by

Hydro, Renewables with Storage, Open Cycle Gas and / or Coal Flexibility

  • Electricity Demand:

3217 BU in 2032 8496 BU in 2047

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SLIDE 4

Key Insights from Model Outcomes

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SLIDE 5

Capacity Mix Share

  • Scenario 1: Coal High Flexibility (55% to 85%)
  • Scenario 2: Coal Medium Flexibility (60% to 70%)

Unconstraint Run for Renewable Capacity Addition Except for 175 GW by 2022

2032 2047 SC-1 SC-2 SC-1 SC-2 T

  • tal Capacity Req.

828 951 2069 2086 Fossil Share % 34% 30% 36% 37% Non Fossil Share % 66% 70% 64% 63% Renewable Share % 52% 57% 53% 52%

2032 SC-1 SC-2

  • Coal share:

29% 21%

  • Gas share:

5% 10%

  • Wind share: 28%

25%

  • Solar share: 22%

30% 2042 SC-1 SC-2

  • Coal Share: 10%

8%

  • Gas Share:

26% 29%

  • Wind share: 16%

15%

  • Solar share: 36%

36%

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SLIDE 6

243 195 211 163 39 93 543 608 79 189 749 749 229 237 322 322 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800

SC-1 SC-2 SC-1 SC-2 2032 2047

GW

Coal Gas Solar wt stg Wind

Capacity Requirements

Unconstraint Run for Renewable Capacity Addition Except for 175 GW by 2022

  • Increase in Gas Cap. Req. in 2032 by 137% and 2047 by 12%
  • By 2047, full use of Solar and Wind Potential

T

  • tal

Capacity Req. 2032 2047 SC-1 SC-2 SC-1 SC-2 828 951 2069 2086

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SLIDE 7

50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450

JAN H01 JAN H02 JAN H03 JAN H04 JAN H05 JAN H06 JAN H07 JAN H08 JAN H09 JAN H10 JAN H11 JAN H12 JAN H13 JAN H14 JAN H15 JAN H16 JAN H17 JAN H18 JAN H19 JAN H20 JAN H21 JAN H22 JAN H23 JAN H24

GWh Hour

Diesel Gas- Open Cycle Solar Thermal With Storage Solar Thermal Solar PV with Storage Solar PV Wind Off Shore Wind On Shore Hydro Coal - Subcritical Coal- Super Critical Coal- Ultra Super Critical Small Hydro Power Gas- Combine Cycle Biopower Nuclear-LWR Nuclear-PHWR

Scenario 1: Coal High Flexibility (55% to 85%)

T ypical One Day Generation in January 2032 (GWh)

Coal Sub C. Coal SC Coal USC Hydro Solar PV Gas OC Nuclear Wind On Solar Th Stg

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SLIDE 8

50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450

JAN H01 JAN H02 JAN H03 JAN H04 JAN H05 JAN H06 JAN H07 JAN H08 JAN H09 JAN H10 JAN H11 JAN H12 JAN H13 JAN H14 JAN H15 JAN H16 JAN H17 JAN H18 JAN H19 JAN H20 JAN H21 JAN H22 JAN H23 JAN H24

GWh Hour

Diesel Gas- Open Cycle Solar Thermal With Storage Solar Thermal Solar PV with Storage Solar PV Wind Off Shore Wind On Shore Hydro Coal - Subcritical Coal- Super Critical Coal- Ultra Super Critical Small Hydro Power Gas- Combine Cycle Biopower Nuclear-LWR Nuclear-PHWR

Scenario 2: Coal Med. Flexibility (60% to 70%)

T ypical One Day Generation in January 2032 (GWh)

Coal Sub C. Coal SC Hydro Solar PV Gas OC Nuclear Wind On Solar Th Stg

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SLIDE 9

100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900

JAN H01 JAN H03 JAN H05 JAN H07 JAN H09 JAN H11 JAN H13 JAN H15 JAN H17 JAN H19 JAN H21 JAN H23

GWh Hour

Diesel Gas- Open Cycle Solar PV Solar Thermal With Storage Wind On Shore Wind Off Shore Hydro Coal - Subcritical Coal- Super Critical Coal- Ultra Super Critical Small Hydro Power Gas- Combine Cycle Biopower Nuclear-LWR Nuclear-PHWR

Scenario 1: Coal High Flexibility (55% to 85%)

Coal Sub C. Coal SC Coal USC Hydro Solar PV Gas OC Wind On Solar Th Stg

T ypical One Day Generation in January 2042 (GWh)

Nuclear

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SLIDE 10

100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900

JAN H01 JAN H03 JAN H05 JAN H07 JAN H09 JAN H11 JAN H13 JAN H15 JAN H17 JAN H19 JAN H21 JAN H23

GWh Hour

Diesel Gas- Open Cycle Solar PV Solar Thermal With Storage Wind On Shore Wind Off Shore Hydro Coal - Subcritical Coal- Super Critical Coal- Ultra Super Critical Small Hydro Power Gas- Combine Cycle Biopower Nuclear-LWR Nuclear-PHWR

Scenario 2: Coal Med. Flexibility (60% to 70%)

T ypical One Day Generation in January 2042 (GWh)

Coal Sub C. Coal SC Hydro Solar PV Gas OC Wind On Solar Th Stg Nuclear

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SLIDE 11

100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 APR H01 APR H12 APR H23 MAY H10 MAY H21 JUNE H08 JUNE H19 JULY H06 JULY H17 AUG H04 AUG H15 SEPT H02 SEPT H13 SEPT H24 OCT H11 OCT H22 NOV H09 NOV H20 DEC H07 DEC H18 JAN H05 JAN H16 FEB H03 FEB H14 MAR H01 MAR H12 MAR H23 GWh Diesel Gas- Open Cycle Hydro Solar Thermal With Storage Solar PV Wind Off Shore Wind On Shore Coal - Subcritical Coal- Super Critical Coal- Ultra Super Critical Small Hydro Power Gas- Combine Cycle Biopower Nuclear-LWR Nuclear-PHWR

Scenario 1: Coal High Flexibility (55% to 85%)

Coal Sub C. Coal SC

Coal USC

Hydro Gas OC Wind On Solar Th Stg

Hourly average for each month-Electricity Generation (GWh) - 2042

Nuclear

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SLIDE 12

100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 APR H01 APR H12 APR H23 MAY H10 MAY H21 JUNE H08 JUNE H19 JULY H06 JULY H17 AUG H04 AUG H15 SEPT H02 SEPT H13 SEPT H24 OCT H11 OCT H22 NOV H09 NOV H20 DEC H07 DEC H18 JAN H05 JAN H16 FEB H03 FEB H14 MAR H01 MAR H12 MAR H23 GWh Diesel Gas- Open Cycle Hydro Solar Thermal With Storage Solar PV Wind Off Shore Wind On Shore Coal - Subcritical Coal- Super Critical Coal- Ultra Super Critical Small Hydro Power Gas- Combine Cycle Biopower Nuclear-LWR Nuclear-PHWR

Scenario 2: Coal Med. Flexibility (60% to 70%)

Hourly average for each month- Electricity Generation (GWh) - 2042

Coal Sub C. Coal SC Hydro Gas OC Wind On Solar Th Stg Nuclear

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SLIDE 13

Key Conclusions

  • T
  • tal capacity req. of 2069-2086 GW for meeting demand

by 2047

  • Renewable share can be as high as 61% but require gas

support for balancing

  • High Gas Support will increase overall cost of Generation
  • Solar with storage reaches its full potential and with

technological progress higher potential may be harnessed

  • Even with full hydro capacity utilization of 145 GW, other

resources are needed for balancing

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SLIDE 14

Key Conclusions

  • Integration of Indian grid with Hydro rich SAARC

nation (Nepal and Bhutan) will helps in absorbing higher Renewable Generation

  • If coal capacity addition as planned by in CEA

Transmission Perspective Report (2016-36) comes

  • nline than with 175 GW renewable underutilization
  • f capacities is expected (unless GDP grows faster)
  • Operating

coal with flexibility has higher coal

  • consump. & maintenance cost which needs to be

considered

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SLIDE 15

Thank You