Relating S easonal Hunger, Coping and Prevention S trategies, and - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Relating S easonal Hunger, Coping and Prevention S trategies, and - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Relating S easonal Hunger, Coping and Prevention S trategies, and Household Nutrition: A Panel Analysis of Malawian Farm Households C. Leigh Anderson, Margaret Beet st ra, Pierre Biscaye, Josh Merfeld, Kat ie Panhorst Harris, & Travis

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Evans S chool Policy Analysis and Research Group (EPAR) Evans S chool Policy Analysis and Research Group (EPAR)

Relating S easonal Hunger, Coping and Prevention S trategies, and Household Nutrition: A Panel Analysis of Malawian Farm Households

  • C. Leigh Anderson, Margaret Beet st ra, Pierre Biscaye, Josh Merfeld,

Kat ie Panhorst Harris, & Travis Reynolds Evans S chool Policy Analysis & Research Group (EP AR)

June 14, 2016 Association for Public Policy Analysis & Management International Conference

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Evans S chool Policy Analysis and Research Group (EPAR) Evans S chool Policy Analysis and Research Group (EPAR)

Presentation Plan

  • Defining and Measuring

S easonal Hunger

  • Consequences of S

easonal Hunger

  • Research questions for

Malawi

  • Empirical Results
  • Conclusions

http://www.farmafrica.org/kenya/cassava‐farming

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Evans S chool Policy Analysis and Research Group (EPAR) Evans S chool Policy Analysis and Research Group (EPAR)

Defining S easonal Hunger

  • Time period preceding the

harvest (Vait la et al., 2009; Zug, 2006)

  • Time after food stocks from

previous harvest are exhausted

(Mburu et al., 2015; Milgroom & Giller, 2013; Paxson, 1993)

  • Approximately 2-6 months,

depending on weather and number of harvests/ year (Daie &

Woldt sadik, 2015; Hadley et al., 2007; Hart , 2009; Lambrecht s & Barry, 2003; Rademacher-S chulz, 2014)

http://www.cgiar.org/our-strategy/cgiar-research-programs/cgiar-research-program-on- integrated-systems-humid-tropics/

Defining & Measuring S easonal Hunger

http://www.cimmyt.org/global-maize-research/

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Evans S chool Policy Analysis and Research Group (EPAR) Evans S chool Policy Analysis and Research Group (EPAR)

Measuring S easonal Hunger

  • 795 million people globally are

hungry, over a quarter of the hungry in S ub S aharan Africa

(F AO, 2015)

  • Over 400 million people live in

poverty in S ub S aharan Africa; 68%

  • f the poor live in rural

areas (World Bank, 2014)

  • S

easonal hunger is likely not j ust a rural phenomenon

https://www.wfp.org/photos/gallery/burundian-refugees-nyarugusu-tanzania

Defining & Measuring S easonal Hunger

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Evans S chool Policy Analysis and Research Group (EPAR) Evans S chool Policy Analysis and Research Group (EPAR)

Consequences of S easonal Hunger

  • Eating less (Edeh & Gyimah-Brempong, 2015; Hadley & Pat il, 2008;

Maxwell, 1996; Mayanj a et al., 2015; Rademacher-S chulz et al., 2014)

  • Eating differently (food substitution) (Daie & Woldt sadik,

2015; Edeh & Gyimah-Brempong, 2015; Hadley & Pat il, 2008; Maxwell, 1996; Mayanj a et al., 2015)

  • Agricultural “borrowing”
  • Harvest immature crops (Mayanj a et al., 2015)
  • Prematurely slaughter livestock (Mayanj a et al., 2015)
  • Financial “borrowing”
  • Borrow food or money to buy food (Edeh & Gyimah-

Brempong, 2015; Hadley & Pat il, 2008; Maxwell, 1996; Mayanj a et al., 2015; Morris et al., 2013; Zug, 2006)

  • Sell assets to purchase food (Mayanj a et al., 2015;

Rademacher-S chulz et al., 2014; Zug, 2006)

  • Changing household composition (Mayanj a et al., 2015)

http://ucanr.edu/blogs/blogcore/postdetail.cfm?postnum=7567

Consequences of S easonal Hunger

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Evans S chool Policy Analysis and Research Group (EPAR) Evans S chool Policy Analysis and Research Group (EPAR)

On-Farm S trategies for Reducing S easonal Hunger

  • Off-season crops (Arimond et al., 2011; Krishnal &

Weerahewa, 2014)

  • Early-maturing varieties (Herfort h, 2010;

Keding & Cogill, 2013; Mburu et al., 2015; Powell et al., 2015)

  • Crop diversification (Benfica & Kilic, 2015;

Carlet t o et al., 2015;; Abdalla et al., 2013; Afifi et al., 2015; Bacon et al., 2014; Devereux, 2009; Wispelwey & Deckelbaum, 2010; Vait la et al., 2012)

http://www.bioversityinternational.org/trees-for-livelihoods-nutrition/

Consequences of S easonal Hunger

http://ciatblogs.cgiar.org/support/files/2014/04/544 5527343_8a4ce1cfbb.jpg

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Evans S chool Policy Analysis and Research Group (EPAR) Evans S chool Policy Analysis and Research Group (EPAR)

Off-Farm S trategies for Reducing S easonal Hunger

Income diversification

  • Non-agricultural

employment

(Afifi et al., 2015; Daie & Woldt sadik, 2015; Rademacher-S chulz et al., 2014; S ibhat u et al., 2015a; Zug, 2006)

  • Trading labor for money
  • r food (Mayanj a et al., 2015; Zug, 2006)
  • Temporarily migrating in

search of work (Afifi et al., 2015;

Hadley & Pat il, 2008; Maxwell, 1996; Rademacher- S chulz et al., 2014)

http://teca.fao.org/technology/african-leafy-vegetables-urban-supply-and-sustainable-diets-0

Consequences of S easonal Hunger

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Evans S chool Policy Analysis and Research Group (EPAR) Evans S chool Policy Analysis and Research Group (EPAR)

Research Questions

In Malawi:

  • 1. Is there seasonal hunger

distinct from chronic hunger?

  • 2. What explains variation in

seasonal hunger among farmers?

  • 3. Is there evidence of recurring

and longer term outcomes driven by seasonal pressures?

http:/ / www.cimmyt.org/ global-maize-research/

S easonal and Chronic Hunger in Malawi

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Evans S chool Policy Analysis and Research Group (EPAR) Evans S chool Policy Analysis and Research Group (EPAR)

LS MS

  • IS

A Data

  • Malawi Integrated Household

Panel Survey

  • Waves 1 (2010) and 2 (2013)
  • Panel survey with detailed data

collection on:

  • Household characteristics
  • Agriculture
  • Community
  • Livestock & Fisheries

http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTLSMS/Images/3358985- 1340736484150/570x282_woman_man_survey.jpg

S easonal and Chronic Hunger in Malawi

World Bank Living Standards Measurement Study - Integrated Surveys on Agriculture

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Evans S chool Policy Analysis and Research Group (EPAR)

S tudy Region

Malawi %Hungry - Farm 63 % Hungry – Non-Farm 46 # Hungry - Farm 1,808,796 # Hungry – Non-Farm 391,322 # of Poor People 10,471,805* % Poor in Population 70.9* # of Rural People 14,006,983 % Rural in Population 83.9

Results

Malawi

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Evans S chool Policy Analysis and Research Group (EPAR)

200 400 600 800 1000 1200

# of Households

Aug Oct Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Sep Nov

Month of First Harvest Month of First Harvest, Wave 1

200 400 600 800 1000 1200

# of Households

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov

Month of First Harvest Month of First Harvest, Wave 2

Month of First Harvest

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Evans S chool Policy Analysis and Research Group (EPAR) Evans S chool Policy Analysis and Research Group (EPAR)

0.1 0.2 0.3 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Proportion of Non-Farm Households Month

Malawi 2013, Non-Farm Households Months household did not have enough food to eat

1,215 non-farm households 0.1 0.2 0.3 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Proportion of Farm Households Month

Malawi 2013, Farm Households Months household did not have enough food to eat

2,785 farm households

Malawi 2013 Hunger by Month

Results

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Evans S chool Policy Analysis and Research Group (EPAR) Evans S chool Policy Analysis and Research Group (EPAR)

Chronic & S easonal Hunger

Source: LSMS, 2010-2013

Results

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Non-farm Farm Non-farm Farm Malawi 2010 Malawi 2013 Seasonal hunger only Chronic hunger only Both seasonal and chronic hunger Not seasonally or chronically hungry

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Evans S chool Policy Analysis and Research Group (EPAR) Evans S chool Policy Analysis and Research Group (EPAR)

Methods – Correlates of S easonal Hunger

Results

We run exploratory regressions to look at the correlates of seasonal hunger, with the form: where is the outcome in household , is a vector of household characteristics, and is a household-specific error term. In these regressions we do not make use of the longitudinal nature of the data.

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Evans S chool Policy Analysis and Research Group (EPAR) Evans S chool Policy Analysis and Research Group (EPAR)

Correlates of S easonal Hunger

Results

Wave 2 2013

Age of household head

  • 0.006***

Organic fertilizer use 0.153*** Y ears of education of head

  • 0.057***

Inorganic fertilizer use

  • 0.073

Male household head

  • 0.238***

Herfindahl index (crop diversity)

  • 0.373***

Household size 0.036*** Grew off-season crop 0.080* Distance to nearest road (km) 0.005** Owned any poultry

  • 0.046

Total rainfall (mm)

  • 0.000

Owned other animal

  • 0.180***

Total landholding (acres)

  • 0.001

S tored any crop

  • 0.389***

Remittances and gifts (log)

  • 0.010**

Wage labor, any household member 0.260*** S

  • ld any crop
  • 0.020

Constant 2.146*** Adj usted R

2

0.133 Observations 2411

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Evans S chool Policy Analysis and Research Group (EPAR) Evans S chool Policy Analysis and Research Group (EPAR)

Methods – Long Term Effects

Results

We next attempt to identify causal relationships between timing of harvest, hunger, and child nutrition outcomes using district/ wave fixed effects: where yihj t is the anthropometric outcome of interest (weight-for-height or height- for-age) for individual i in household h in district j in survey wave t , Thj t is the variable of interest (timing of harvest or hunger), and is the child’s age. We then look at relationships between month of first harvest in the previous year and hunger or month of first harvest in the current year again using fixed effects: where yhj t is the outcome of interest (month of first harvest in the current year or

  • ne of the hunger variables) and Thj t is month of harvest in the previous year.
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Evans S chool Policy Analysis and Research Group (EPAR) Evans S chool Policy Analysis and Research Group (EPAR)

Results

Child Anthropometrics and S easonal Hunger

Weight-for-height Height-for-age

Model 1 Model 2 Model 3 Model 4

S easonal hunger (count) 0.014

  • 0.081

Months hungry in previous year

  • 0.007
  • 0.018

Age 0.000

  • 0.000
  • 0.077***
  • 0.076***

Household size 0.050 0.050 0.022 0.021 Male household head

  • 0.062
  • 0.058

0.271 0.278 Total landholding (acres) (log)

  • 0.035
  • 0.036

0.163* 0.159 Herfindahl index (crop diversity)

  • 0.120
  • 0.122

0.092 0.094 Other livestock (count)

  • 0.014
  • 0.015

0.008 0.009 Poultry (count) 0.003*** 0.003*** 0.002** 0.002** Adj usted R2 0.220 0.220 0.207 0.206 Observations 3357 3357 3384 3384 S tandard errors are in parentheses. S tandard errors are clustered at the household level. All regressions include wave/ district fixed effects. The dependent variable in columns 1 and 2 is weight-for-height, defined using the WHO’s statistics and methodology. The dependent variable in columns 3 and 4 is height-for-age, similarly defined. S easonal hunger is defined as the number of months hungry in the four months preceding the first maize harvest of the season (including the month of harvest). * p<0.10 ** p<0.05 *** p<0.01

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Evans S chool Policy Analysis and Research Group (EPAR) Evans S chool Policy Analysis and Research Group (EPAR)

Harvest Month by Hunger Category, Wave 2

S easonally Hungry Households Chronically Hungry Households Other Households

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Evans S chool Policy Analysis and Research Group (EPAR) Evans S chool Policy Analysis and Research Group (EPAR)

Effect of Hunger on Harvest Month

Results

Month of Harvest in Current Season Model 1 Model 2 S easonal hunger (count)

  • 0.081***
  • 0.195***

Number of months hungry in previous year 0.091*** Household size

  • 0.015
  • 0.015

Male household head 0.005

  • 0.007

Total landholding (acres) (log)

  • 0.032
  • 0.031

Herfindahl index (crop diversity)

  • 0.025
  • 0.047

Other livestock (count)

  • 0.000

0.002 Poultry (count)

  • 0.001*
  • 0.001*

Adj usted R2 0.575 0.586 Observations 5137 5137 S tandard errors are in parentheses. S tandard errors are clustered at the household level. Both regressions include household fixed effects. The dependent variable in both regressions is the month

  • f first harvest in the current year.

* p<0.10 ** p<0.05 *** p<0.01

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Evans S chool Policy Analysis and Research Group (EPAR) Evans S chool Policy Analysis and Research Group (EPAR)

Conclusions

  • S

easonal hunger differs from chronic hunger in terms of drivers and affected populations, but understanding of its dynamics is still limited

  • Both farm and non-farm households in Malawi are

vulnerable to seasonal food shortages

  • Age and education of household head, crop diversity,

and crop storage are all correlated with lower likelihood of experiencing seasonal hunger

  • S

easonal hunger is associated with early harvesting – an

  • utcome with implications for both nutrition and

household income

  • Harvesting earlier one year is associated with harvesting

earlier the following year, so seasonal hunger may be part of a cycle

Conclusions

http:/ / www.bioversityinternational.org/ rese arch-portfolio/ production-marketing-of- bananas-tree-crops/

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Evans S chool Policy Analysis and Research Group (EPAR)

Evans S chool Policy Analysis & Research Group (EP AR)

Professor C. Leigh Anderson, Principal Investigator Professor Travis Reynolds, co-Principal Investigator Margaret Beetstra, Pierre Biscaye, Katie Panhorst Harris, & Josh Merfeld

EP AR uses an innovative student-faculty team model to provide rigorous, applied research and analysis to international development stakeholders. Established in 2008, the EP AR model has since been emulated by other UW schools and programs to further enrich the international development community and enhance student learning.

Please direct comment s or quest ions about t his research t o Principal Invest igat ors C. Leigh Anderson and Travis Reynolds at epar.evans.uw@ gmail.com.