Relating S easonal Hunger, Coping and Prevention S trategies, and Household Nutrition: A Panel Analysis of Malawian Farm Households C. Leigh Anderson, Margaret Beet st ra, Pierre Biscaye, Josh Merfeld, Kat ie Panhorst Harris, & Travis Reynolds Evans S chool Policy Analysis & Research Group (EP AR) June 14, 2016 Association for Public Policy Analysis & Management International Conference Evans S Evans S chool Policy Analysis and Research Group (EPAR) chool Policy Analysis and Research Group (EPAR)
Presentation Plan • Defining and Measuring S easonal Hunger • Consequences of S easonal Hunger • Research questions for Malawi • Empirical Results http://www.farmafrica.org/kenya/cassava ‐ farming • Conclusions Evans S Evans S chool Policy Analysis and Research Group (EPAR) chool Policy Analysis and Research Group (EPAR)
Defining S easonal Hunger • Time period preceding the harvest (Vait la et al., 2009; Zug, 2006) • Time after food stocks from previous harvest are exhausted (Mburu et al., 2015; Milgroom & Giller, 2013; Paxson, 1993) • Approximately 2-6 months, depending on weather and number of harvests/ year (Daie & http://www.cgiar.org/our-strategy/cgiar-research-programs/cgiar-research-program-on- integrated-systems-humid-tropics/ Woldt sadik, 2015; Hadley et al., 2007; Hart , 2009; Lambrecht s & Barry, 2003; Rademacher-S chulz, 2014) http://www.cimmyt.org/global-maize-research/ Defining & Measuring S easonal Hunger Evans S Evans S chool Policy Analysis and Research Group (EPAR) chool Policy Analysis and Research Group (EPAR)
Measuring S easonal Hunger • 795 million people globally are hungry, over a quarter of the hungry in S ub S aharan Africa (F AO, 2015) • Over 400 million people live in poverty in S ub S aharan Africa; 68% of the poor live in rural areas (World Bank, 2014) • S easonal hunger is likely not j ust a rural phenomenon https://www.wfp.org/photos/gallery/burundian-refugees-nyarugusu-tanzania Defining & Measuring S easonal Hunger Evans S Evans S chool Policy Analysis and Research Group (EPAR) chool Policy Analysis and Research Group (EPAR)
Consequences of S easonal Hunger • Eating less (Edeh & Gyimah-Brempong, 2015; Hadley & Pat il, 2008; Maxwell, 1996; Mayanj a et al., 2015; Rademacher-S chulz et al., 2014) • Eating differently (food substitution) (Daie & Woldt sadik, 2015; Edeh & Gyimah-Brempong, 2015; Hadley & Pat il, 2008; Maxwell, 1996; Mayanj a et al., 2015) • Agricultural “borrowing” • Harvest immature crops (Mayanj a et al., 2015) • Prematurely slaughter livestock (Mayanj a et al., 2015) • Financial “borrowing” • Borrow food or money to buy food (Edeh & Gyimah- Brempong, 2015; Hadley & Pat il, 2008; Maxwell, 1996; Mayanj a et al., 2015; Morris et al., 2013; Zug, 2006) http://ucanr.edu/blogs/blogcore/postdetail.cfm?postnum=7567 • Sell assets to purchase food (Mayanj a et al., 2015; Rademacher-S chulz et al., 2014; Zug, 2006) • Changing household composition (Mayanj a et al., 2015) Consequences of S easonal Hunger Evans S Evans S chool Policy Analysis and Research Group (EPAR) chool Policy Analysis and Research Group (EPAR)
On-Farm S trategies for Reducing S easonal Hunger • Off-season crops (Arimond et al., 2011; Krishnal & Weerahewa, 2014) • Early-maturing varieties (Herfort h, 2010; Keding & Cogill, 2013; Mburu et al., 2015; Powell et al., 2015) • Crop diversification (Benfica & Kilic, 2015; Carlet t o et al., 2015;; Abdalla et al., 2013; Afifi et al., 2015; Bacon et al., 2014; Devereux, 2009; Wispelwey & Deckelbaum, 2010; Vait la et al., 2012) http://ciatblogs.cgiar.org/support/files/2014/04/544 5527343_8a4ce1cfbb.jpg http://www.bioversityinternational.org/trees-for-livelihoods-nutrition/ Consequences of S easonal Hunger Evans S Evans S chool Policy Analysis and Research Group (EPAR) chool Policy Analysis and Research Group (EPAR)
Off-Farm S trategies for Reducing S easonal Hunger Income diversification • Non-agricultural employment (Afifi et al., 2015; Daie & Woldt sadik, 2015; Rademacher-S chulz et al., 2014; S ibhat u et al., 2015a; Zug, 2006) • Trading labor for money or food (Mayanj a et al., 2015; Zug, 2006) • Temporarily migrating in search of work (Afifi et al., 2015; http://teca.fao.org/technology/african-leafy-vegetables-urban-supply-and-sustainable-diets-0 Hadley & Pat il, 2008; Maxwell, 1996; Rademacher- S chulz et al., 2014) Consequences of S easonal Hunger Evans S Evans S chool Policy Analysis and Research Group (EPAR) chool Policy Analysis and Research Group (EPAR)
Research Questions In Malawi: 1. Is there seasonal hunger distinct from chronic hunger? 2. What explains variation in seasonal hunger among farmers? 3. Is there evidence of recurring and longer term outcomes driven by seasonal pressures? http:/ / www.cimmyt.org/ global-maize-research/ S easonal and Chronic Hunger in Malawi Evans S Evans S chool Policy Analysis and Research Group (EPAR) chool Policy Analysis and Research Group (EPAR)
LS MS -IS A Data • Malawi Integrated Household Panel Survey • Waves 1 (2010) and 2 (2013) • Panel survey with detailed data collection on: • Household characteristics • Agriculture • Community http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTLSMS/Images/3358985- 1340736484150/570x282_woman_man_survey.jpg • Livestock & Fisheries World Bank Living Standards Measurement Study - Integrated Surveys on Agriculture S easonal and Chronic Hunger in Malawi Evans S Evans S chool Policy Analysis and Research Group (EPAR) chool Policy Analysis and Research Group (EPAR)
S tudy Region Malawi %Hungry - Farm 63 % Hungry – Non-Farm 46 # Hungry - Farm 1,808,796 # Hungry – Non-Farm 391,322 # of Poor People 10,471,805* Malawi % Poor in Population 70.9* # of Rural People 14,006,983 % Rural in Population 83.9 Results Evans S chool Policy Analysis and Research Group (EPAR)
Month of First Harvest Month of First Harvest, Wave 1 Month of First Harvest, Wave 2 800 1000 1200 800 1000 1200 # of Households # of Households 600 600 400 400 200 200 0 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Month of First Harvest Month of First Harvest Evans S chool Policy Analysis and Research Group (EPAR)
Malawi 2013 Hunger by Month Malawi 2013, Farm Households Malawi 2013, Non-Farm Households Months household did not have enough food to eat Months household did not have enough food to eat 0.3 0.3 Proportion of Non-Farm Households Proportion of Farm Households 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Month Month 2,785 farm households 1,215 non-farm households Results Evans S Evans S chool Policy Analysis and Research Group (EPAR) chool Policy Analysis and Research Group (EPAR)
Chronic & S easonal Hunger Malawi 2013 Farm Non-farm Malawi 2010 Farm Non-farm 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Seasonal hunger only Chronic hunger only Both seasonal and chronic hunger Not seasonally or chronically hungry Source: LSMS, 2010-2013 Results Evans S Evans S chool Policy Analysis and Research Group (EPAR) chool Policy Analysis and Research Group (EPAR)
Methods – Correlates of S easonal Hunger We run exploratory regressions to look at the correlates of seasonal hunger, with the form: � � � � � �� � � � � where � � is the outcome in household � , � � is a vector of household characteristics, and � � is a household-specific error term. In these regressions we do not make use of the longitudinal nature of the data. Results Evans S Evans S chool Policy Analysis and Research Group (EPAR) chool Policy Analysis and Research Group (EPAR)
Correlates of S easonal Hunger Wave 2 2013 Organic fertilizer use Age of household head -0.006*** 0.153*** Y ears of education of head -0.057*** Inorganic fertilizer use -0.073 Male household head -0.238*** Herfindahl index (crop diversity) -0.373*** Household size 0.036*** Grew off-season crop 0.080* Distance to nearest road (km) 0.005** Owned any poultry -0.046 Total rainfall (mm) -0.000 Owned other animal -0.180*** Total landholding (acres) -0.001 S tored any crop -0.389*** Remittances and gifts (log) -0.010** Wage labor, any household member 0.260*** S old any crop -0.020 Constant 2.146*** 2 Adj usted R 0.133 Observations 2411 Results Evans S Evans S chool Policy Analysis and Research Group (EPAR) chool Policy Analysis and Research Group (EPAR)
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