Regional Adaptation Collaborative San Jose Watershed DEPARTMENT OF - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

DEPARTMENT OF FOREST RESOURCES MANAGEMENT UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA

W I L L I A M S L A K E , B R I T I S H C O L U M B I A P I O N E E R C O M P L E X 1 1 J U N E , 2 0 1 0

Regional Adaptation Collaborative

San Jose Watershed

RAC San Jose Watershed

11 June, 2010

Overview

 Introduction  Project team  Progress to date  Goals for today’s workshop  Revised list of questions

around key values

 Next steps

RAC San Jose Watershed

11 June, 2010

Project team

RAC San Jose Watershed

 Harry Nelson UBC, Forest Resources Management  Ken Day UBC, Alex Fraser Research Forest  Stewart Cohen UBC, Environment Canada  Anne-Hélène Mathey UBC, Forest Resources Management  Craig Nitschke UBC/University of Melbourne  Dan Moore UBC, FRM/Geography  Georg Jost

UBC, FRM/Geography

 Adam Wei UBC Okanagan  Clement Agboma UBC Okanagan  Cathy Koot UBC, Alex Fraser Research Forest  Phil Grace Graduate Student, UBC 11 June, 2010

The San Jose Watershed

RAC San Jose Watershed

11 June, 2010

The San Jose Watershed

RAC San Jose Watershed

 Water supply is a key concern



City of Williams Lake aquifer

 Challenges identified in previous studies

(Case and Holmes)



Flow levels (low summer, high winter)



Water temperature variations



Fish species concerns

 Mountain Pine Beetle impact



Biological interventions



Management interventions

 Lack of disturbances

11 June, 2010

Project Goals

RAC San Jose Watershed

 Concern as to how climate change might impact flow of

services and values we expect from local forest resources

 Through a collaborative process quantitatively assess these

impacts and the effect of different forest management activities on the watershed

 Use this to enable planning within a long-term sustainability

strategy

 End up with an idea of how future forest management

strategies could address water concerns

11 June, 2010

Modelling Framework

RAC San Jose Watershed Landscape dynamics Satisfying outcomes? Ending Landscape (Forest Inventory) Growth and Yield Regeneration Climate Scenarios

• 1. Disturbances

Policy Scenarios

• Water Management
• Adaptation
• Sustainability

START: Initial Landscape (Forest Inventory)

• 2. Forest Growth

Human processes Natural Processes Management & Harvesting MPB

END

Hydrology models

1. Surface water model 2. Groundwater model

TACA DYNA-PLAN YAM MIKE SHE

Stand dynamics Mortality

11 June, 2010

Expected Outcomes

RAC San Jose Watershed

 Not come up with a plan, but an outline of a plan  Hand off to those with

the responsibility to implement

 Not a prescriptive output,

but one that is relevant to decision making

 Consistent with overall RAC

• bjectives

11 June, 2010

Progress to date

RAC San Jose Watershed

 April workshop  Presented models to local practitioners  Identified key questions and values  Identified sources of data that may be of use  Post-workshop team meeting  Acquired data from various sources  Carefully looked at each proposed question and

assessed how and whether it can be modelled

11 June, 2010

RAC San Jose Watershed

11 June, 2010

Revised Questions (forest cover)

RAC San Jose Watershed

Value 1: Range, ranching, grasslands

• 1. How much open range would there be under climate change?
• 2. Where are trees going to die as a result of climate change?
• 3. What will be the species suitability in the future across ecosystems?

Value 2: Water

• 1. Would there be a management strategy that improves water flow?
• 2. Can manipulating forest cover impact peak flow?
• 3. What stand structure (crown closure, shading etc.) is more

beneficial to water supply and resilience?

11 June, 2010

Revised Questions (forest cover)

RAC San Jose Watershed

Value 3: Habitat

• 1. Are habitat prescriptions (e.g. mule deer winter habitat) still

appropriate in the future?

Value 4: Timber

1. How would salvage impact water flow?

• 2. Will the type of forest that grows be commercially viable?
• 3. How might natural disturbance change + change the landscape

(fire, insect)?

11 June, 2010

Revised Questions (hydrology)

RAC San Jose Watershed

Value 1: Range, ranching, grasslands

• 1. Is there are target proportion of open ground to closed forests?
• 2. How might the amount of grassland change in the future?
• 3. Where do we expect grassland to develop?
• 4. What are the effects of reopening range lands?

11 June, 2010

Revised Questions (hydrology)

RAC San Jose Watershed

Value 2: Water

• 1. How can we manipulate forest cover to modulate peak flow?
• 2. How can we incorporate the current condition into the framework?
• 3. Under different forest types and layouts, how much precipitation

actually reaches the ground? How much permeates? Runs off? Evaporates?

• 4. Soil water storage
• 5. What stand structures have the best water retention

characteristics?

• 6. What can we expect with regards to water levels?

11 June, 2010

Revised Questions (hydrology)

RAC San Jose Watershed

Value 3: Habitat

• 1. How will aspen fare under climate change?

Value 4: Timber

1.

How sensitive are the species that are most important for forestry in the region to climate change?

• 2. How will different cut block layouts impact water retention and

flow?

• 3. How will species suitability change across the map?
• 4. What are the most sensitive stand types in the future?
• 5. What happens if we don’t manage stands that way?

11 June, 2010

http://sanjosewatershed.com

RAC San Jose Watershed

11 June, 2010