P RESENTATION S LIDES RALPH TORRIE S ETTING THE C ONTEXT : G LOBAL C LIMATE C HANGE AND S OCIAL H OUSING : W HAT ’ S THE C ONNECTION ? W HAT ’ S THE O PPORTUNITY ? C LEAN A IR P ARTNERSHIP W ORKSHOP : I MPROVING THE O DDS FOR A CHIEVING S UCCESSFUL S OCIAL H OUSING E NERGY E FFICIENCY R ETROFITS T ORONTO , O CTOBER 6, 2016
Primary Fuel and Electricity Use in Canada, 1871-2013 10/7/2016 Slide 3
Relative Growth of Population, GDP, Primary Energy and GHG Emissions, 1926-2013, Canada 10/7/2016 Page 4
800 The low carbon objective represented by the Paris Accord takes us outside 600 the climate change policy box, supports a “fresh look” at strategies and options 400 200 0 1926 1950 1974 1998 2022 2046
Illustrative Low-Carbon Energy Transition for Canada … 12,000 Petajoules 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 2013 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038 2043 2048 Coal Aviation fuel Electricity RPP Oil Sands Fuel Natural Gas and commodities Biomass Biofuels
10/7/2016 7
Greenhouse Gas Emission Factors for Fuels and Electricity in Ontario, 2013 10/7/2016 Page 8 62CE – Navigating Ontario’s Energy Transition
10/7/2016 10 62CE – Navigating Ontario’s Energy Transition
Ontario Residential Buildings in 2013 – Energy and GHG Emissions 10/7/2016 12
10/7/2016 62CE – Navigating Ontario’s 13 Energy Transition
Low Carbon Energy Futures – These five things must happen: • Efficiency, efficiency and then more efficiency • Electricity’s role expands into transportation and heat • Decarbonize the electricity supply • Sustainable production of biofuels • Innovation to reduce fuel and electricity in provision of human needs, amenities
Some wicked complications: • Climate change and its deleterious impacts will increase throughout this century. • The time frame for the transition is short compared to the inertia in the current energy system. • The pre-tax price of fossil fuels will be permanently depressed in a low carbon future. • The prices Canadian households and businesses currently pay for fuel and electricity, when converted to implied carbon prices, are in the range of $200-$500/tonne CO2eq and higher. 10/7/2016 Slide 15
Some good news and opportunities: • The technology is “available” • Low carbon solutions yield co-benefits that are often of greater value to stakeholders than climate mitigation • Building out a low carbon future will require a very large, skilled work force • Infrastructure renewal presents an historic opportunity to implement resilient, low carbon solutions
Key considerations: • Transition to low carbon will take place simultaneously with other disruptive and far-reaching transitions, some helpful, some not. • Capital intensity presents a challenge to policy and business models, but not the same thing as expensive. • Innovation in financing and business strategies necessary to remove “first cost” barrier, and to resolve split incentives. • Education and climate literacy will speed the transition. • Low carbon solutions vary according to local circumstances; local agency and capacity, including in city halls, are essential. • Human and institutional capacity development are constraints on the accelerated deployment of otherwise ready solutions. 10/7/2016 Slide 17
Low Carbon Futures (emissions <20% current levels ) Not feasible Enthusiastic support Status Quo Emissions
Climate Change, Energy Efficiency & Social Housing Connecting the Dots… Stakeholders Motivations Home ownership Affordable access to housing Occupants and tenants Comfort Tenant and neighbourhood associations Convenient access to stores and services Densification Landlords/building owners Secure tenure Senior government departments Safety Local government, municipal service providers Energy cost savings Developers Profit Local businesses Asset value School boards Client Satisfaction Builders and construction industry Sales, investment and business opportunities Trade unions Resiliency, risk minimization Energy cost savings Colleges Air quality Appliance and equipment suppliers Employment Banks and financers Training and education Gas and electric utilities Local economic development Building technology suppliers Climate mitigation … Climate adaptation Increased supply of social housing … 10/7/2016 21 Public policy objectives… Demand management opportunity
“Mixed -use, democratic neighborhoods with jobs and services nearby are the low-carbon gold standard .” – Daniel Cohen “It’s extremely important for us to also look at future investment and growth in affordable and social housing through an environmental lens.” Catherine McKenna, Minister of Environment and Climate Change 10/7/2016
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