Rumliche und netzw erkbasierte Modelle zur Interventionsplanung bei - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Sep 15, 2022 16 likes •207 views

Rumliche und netzw erkbasierte Modelle zur Interventionsplanung bei direkt bertragenen Krankheiten Markus Schw ehm & Martin Eichner Institut fr Medizinische Biometrie, Tbingen Influenzadynamik [image removed] The InfluSim

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Räumliche und netzw erkbasierte Modelle zur Interventionsplanung bei direkt übertragenen Krankheiten

Markus Schw ehm & Martin Eichner Institut für Medizinische Biometrie, Tübingen

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Influenzadynamik

[image removed]

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The InfluSim Simulator

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Tabletop exercise at the South Korean Center of Disease Control (October 2006)

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Umgang mit Unsicherheit

Für bis zu 10 Schiebereg- lern wurden Intervalle bestimmt, aus denen zufällige Werte gezogen wurden. Bevölkerung: 100 000 EW Resultate von 50 000 Simulationen dk: niedr. R0 hell: hoh. R0

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Infection Dynamics

susceptible immune infection contagious infected

Individual-based Network-based Stochastic Interventions?

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Symptoms

dead

bvious

detectable none immune contagious infected susceptible

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Interventions

dead

bvious

detectable none detected

bserved

traced none secluded isolated

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InterSim: Three Layer Model

Symptom state none susceptible detectable infected

bserved

Infection state contagious unobserved traced detected Intervention state immune dead secluded isolated

bvious

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Further Features

Death–Birth Process Group Quarantine Vaccination of

contacts quarantined Population

Limited Ressources Priority Queues Contact Networks

Local Small World Scalefree Random Global

Close/Remote Contacts Quarantine Groups

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Contact Netw orks

Local Random Scalefree Social Network Interface

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EpiDyNet

Modeling of antiviral efficacy and antiviral treatment strategies

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Periodic outbreaks due to behavour change of susceptibles

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Modeling of group quarantine

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Applications

Smallpox (bioterror preparedness planning) SARS (emerging disease containment) Poliomyelitis (vaccination termination protocols) Pandemic Influenza (on beyond anti-virals) Rumors (person to person communications) Upcoming projects: Malaria (Host-Vector) Hepatitis (Sexually transmitted diseases)

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Conclusions

Individual and network-based Fast event-driven simulation Interactive user interface Generic infection and intervention process Combination of intervention strategies

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The Explorator Project

Graphical Model Editor Deterministic Simulator Stochastic Simulator

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