Rumliche und netzw erkbasierte Modelle zur Interventionsplanung bei - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Räumliche und netzw erkbasierte Modelle zur Interventionsplanung bei direkt übertragenen Krankheiten Markus Schw ehm & Martin Eichner Institut für Medizinische Biometrie, Tübingen

Influenzadynamik [image removed]

The InfluSim Simulator

� Tabletop exercise at the South Korean Center of Disease Control (October 2006)

Umgang mit Unsicherheit Für bis zu 10 Schiebereg- lern wurden Intervalle bestimmt, aus denen zufällige Werte gezogen wurden. Bevölkerung: 100 000 EW Resultate von 50 000 Simulationen + dk: niedr. R 0 hell: hoh. R 0

Infection Dynamics susceptible � Individual-based infected infection � Network-based � Stochastic contagious � Interventions? immune

immune � � � contagious � � infected � � Symptoms susceptible detectable obvious dead none

Interventions dead � � � � � � � obvious � � detectable � � none � none traced observed detected secluded isolated

InterSim: Three Layer Model Intervention state Infection state Symptom state unobserved susceptible traced none infected observed detectable contagious detected obvious secluded immune dead isolated

Further Features � Death–Birth Process � Contact Networks � Group Quarantine � Local � Vaccination of � Small World � Scalefree � contacts � Random � quarantined � Global � Population � Close/Remote Contacts � Limited Ressources � Quarantine Groups � Priority Queues

Social Scalefree Contact Netw orks Random Network Interface Local

Modeling of antiviral efficacy and antiviral treatment strategies EpiDyNet

Periodic outbreaks due to behavour change of susceptibles

Modeling of group quarantine

Applications � Smallpox (bioterror preparedness planning) � SARS (emerging disease containment) � Poliomyelitis (vaccination termination protocols) � Pandemic Influenza (on beyond anti-virals) � Rumors (person to person communications) Upcoming projects: � Malaria (Host-Vector) � Hepatitis (Sexually transmitted diseases)

Conclusions � Individual and network-based � Fast event-driven simulation � Interactive user interface � Generic infection and intervention process � Combination of intervention strategies

Stochastic Simulator The Explorator Project Deterministic Simulator Model Editor Graphical