Queensland Budget 2016-17 Queensland Budget 2016-17 Advancing - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Queensland Budget 2016-17

Queensland Budget 2016-17

Advancing Queensland’s Economy

Growing

Innovation

Attracting

Investment

Building

Infrastructure

Creating

Jobs

$300 billion

Economy

$53 billion Budget More than $40 billion

infrastructure over 4 years

2

Queensland Budget 2016-17

Queensland’s Economic Plan

3

Queensland Budget 2016-17

Economic Outlook

Strongest economic growth in Australia this year and coming years Growth led by diversified export portfolio, incl. LNG ramp-up Economic growth at 3½% in 2015-16 rising to 4% in 2016-17 Components of growth stabilising, including improving household consumption and business investment Employment growth of 1¾%, unemployment falling to 5 ¾% over FEs

Queensland Budget 2016-17

Economic growth comparisons

5

100 150 200 250 300 350

1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

INDEX (1989-90 = 100)

QUEENSLAND AUSTRALIA OECD

Queensland Budget 2016-17

Fastest growing State economy

1 2 3 4 5 2014–15 2015–16 2016–17 2017–18 Annual % change NSW Vic. QLD WA SA Tas.

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Est. Actual Forecast Forecast

Queensland Budget 2016-17

Queensland’s diversified economy

7

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

QLD NSW VIC SA WA TAS NT ACT

Health care Education and training Finance and property services Transport and communications Other Wholesale and retail trade Construction Public sector and utilites Manufacturing Natural resources Agriculture

Queensland Budget 2016-17 8

Components of Queensland’s growth

• 6
• 4
• 2

2 4

Household consumption Dwelling investment Business investment Public final demand Overseas exports Overseas imports GSP Annual % point contribution

2014–15 2015–16 2016–17 2017–18

Queensland Budget 2016-17

Fiscal Outlook

Operating surpluses of $3.2 billion over forward estimates Operating surplus of $867 million for 2016-17 – largest in a decade Revenue growth (3.2%) outpacing expenses growth (2.9%) Debt to revenue ratio down from 87% in 2014-15 to 71% in 2015-16 General Govt debt $10.4 billion lower than 2014-15 Budget projection

Queensland Budget 2016-17

Forecast surpluses

200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20

$m

Est. Actual Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast

Lower GST in 2018-19

10

$1.1b disaster relief withheld by Federal Government

Queensland Budget 2016-17

Revenue outpacing expenses

50 52 54 56

2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20

$ billions

Average revenue growth 3.2% Average expenses growth 2.9%

Revenue Expenses

Queensland Budget 2016-17 12

New fiscal principle

Average public service FTE growth over the forward estimates should not exceed population growth.

Queensland Budget 2016-17

Reduction in General Government Debt

13 30 34 38 42 46 50 2014–15 2015–16 2016–17 2017–18 2018–19 2019–20

2014–15 Budget 2015–16 Budget 2016–17 Budget $ billions

Queensland Budget 2016-17

Reduction in Non-Financial Public Sector Debt

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70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84

2014–15 2015–16 2016–17 2017–18 2018–19 2019–20 2014–15 Budget 2014–15 MYFER 2015–16 Budget 2015–16 MYFER 2016–17 Budget

$ billions

Non-Financial Public Sector gross borrowings

Queensland Budget 2016-17

Debt to revenue ratio

General government debt to revenue forecasts

15

65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 105

2012–13 2013–14 2014–15 2015–16 2016–17 2017–18 2018–19 2019–20

%

2014-15 Budget 2016-17 Budget 2015-16 Budget

Debt to Revenue ratio down 15% on 2014-15 forecast

Queensland Budget 2016-17

Debt Action Plan

100% Fully funded $24b Current fund $34b 100% Fully funded $24b $10b surplus

$6b remaining surplus $4b repatriation

State Infrastructure Fund Debt reduction

$2b $2b

All payouts guaranteed by legislation Defined Benefit Scheme Only fully funded scheme in Australia

Scheme funding as at 30 June 2015 16

Queensland Budget 2016-17

Revenue measures

12-month boost to First Home Owners Grant for new builds ($20,000) 3% transfer duty surcharge on foreign purchasers of residential property Tax avoidance crackdown, particularly not-for-profit status Transfer duty concession for intergenerational transfers of family farms

Queensland Budget 2016-17 18

Peer comparison

Bond yields and gross debt levels for advanced economies

Slovak Republic Slovenia Israel Korea Belgium New Zealand Czech Republic Austria United States France United Kingdom Hong Kong Portugal Italy Taiwan Spain Malta Ireland Finland

Australia

Canada Denmark Germany Norway Sweden Switzerland Singapore Netherlands

Queensland

• 1.00
• 0.50

0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 20 40 60 80 100 120 140

Non-AAA AAA QLD 10 YEAR GOVERNMENT BOND YIELD (PER CENT)

GROSS DEBT (PER CENT OF GDP)

Queensland Budget 2016-17 Queensland Budget 2016-17 Growing

Innovation

Growing innovation $405 million

Advance Queensland Includes $225 million Advance Queensland acceleration

$19.7 million

Biofutures roadmap

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Queensland Budget 2016-17

Attracting business investment

Attracting

Investment

$40 million

Industry Attraction Fund

Two new trade offices

in China and Singapore

$33 million Connecting with

Asia tourism strategy

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Queensland Budget 2016-17 21

Market-led proposals

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$450 million

Logan Motorway enhancement 1300 potential jobs

$100 million

Queensland Aquarium and Maritime Museum

$100 million

Brisbane International Cruise Terminal 300 potential jobs

Queensland Budget 2016-17

Building Infrastructure More than $40 billion

• ver four years

31,000 jobs

supported in 2016-17

$10.7 billion

in 2016-17

Building

Infrastructure

$2 billion

State Infrastructure Fund

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Queensland Budget 2016-17

2018 Gold Coast Commonwealth Games $550 million

Health and Knowledge Precinct

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$122 million

Carrara Sports Precinct

Global investment

and sponsorship opportunities

Queensland Budget 2016-17

Environment $21.7 million this year

to protect the Great Barrier Reef

$89.1 million wildlife and

environmental protection

$33 million Connecting

with Asia Strategy

24

Queensland Budget 2016-17

Advancing Queensland’s Economy

Growing

Innovation

Attracting

Investment

Building

Infrastructure

Creating

Jobs

25