Q4 & Full Year 2015 Earnings Presentation January 28, 2016 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Q4 & Full Year 2015 Earnings Presentation

January 28, 2016

Forward-Looking Statements & Non-IFRS Financial Information

• All financial references are expressed in US$ unless otherwise noted.
• This presentation contains forward-looking statements and estimates.
• Actual company results could differ materially from a conclusion, forecast or

projection in the forward-looking information.

• Certain material factors or assumptions were applied in drawing a conclusion or

making a forecast or projection as reflected in the forward-looking information.

• Additional information can be found in the Company’s annual information form,

annual and quarterly MD&A, and on Norbord’s website (www.norbord.com) about the material factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from the conclusion, forecast or projection in the forward-looking information, and the material factors or assumptions that were applied in drawing a conclusion or making a forecast or projection as reflected in the forward-looking information.

• During the course of this presentation, certain non-IFRS financial information will be
• presented. Definitions and reconciliation of terms can be found in the Company’s

annual and quarterly MD&A.

2

Notices

2015 Financial and Operational Highlights

• Adjusted EBITDA of $122 million; adjusted loss of $0.17 per diluted share
• Completed merger with Ainsworth, creating the largest global OSB producer
• Captured $18 million in merger synergies ($27 million annualized), more than half of $45

million total commitment

• Record annual production at six mills; production volume up 4%
• Achieved Margin Improvement Program gains of $43 million
• Returned $40 million in dividends to shareholders

– Declared CAD $0.10/share quarterly dividend payable March 21, 2016

• $135 million investment approved to modernize Inverness, Scotland OSB mill

3

Note: Results reflect combined performance following completion of merger with Ainsworth and 2014 comparatives have been restated

US Housing Starts

4

Source: US Department of Commerce, except where otherwise noted

0.61 0.78 0.93 1.00 1.11 1.25

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016F

2015 housing starts up 11% and permits up 12%

(in millions)

(1) Based on US housing economist forecasts (1)

North American Benchmark OSB Prices

5

US $/Msf-7/16” 216 193 193 204 242 218 209 181 175 174 176 221 188 187 172 159 152 158 204 196 169 100 150 200 250 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015 2014 2015 North Central South East Western Canada

Source: Random Lengths

Spread SE vs NC 35 18 19 28 21 30 22 Spread WC vs NC 44 34 41 46 38 22 40

European Indicative OSB Prices(1)

6

€/m3

(1) European indicative average OSB price represents the gross delivered price to the largest continental market

248 232 218 220 226 262 224 200 210 220 230 240 250 260 270 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015 2014 2015

(US $ millions, except per share information)

Q4 Q3 Q4 2015 2015 2014 2015 2014

Sales $ 415 $ 378 $ 372 $ 1,509 $ 1,601 Adjusted EBITDA North America 51 22 6 95 82 Europe 10 11 11 38 47 Unallocated (4) (3) (3) (11) (14) Total 57 30 14 122 115 Earnings (loss) $ 13 $ (9) $ (26) $ (56) $ (39) Adjust for: Ainsworth merger transaction costs

• 9

8 10 Costs to achieve Ainsworth merger synergies 3

• 7
• Costs on terminated LP acquisition
• 2

Costs on early extinguishment of Ainsworth Notes

• 25
• Revaluation loss on Ainsworth Notes
• 13

24 39 Reported income tax expense (recovery) 6 3 (18) (27) (35) Adjusted pre-tax earnings (loss) 22 (6) (22) (19) (23) Income tax (expense) recovery at statutory rate(1) (6) 2 6 5 6 Adjusted earnings (loss) 16 (4) (16) (14) (17) Adjusted EPS, basic and diluted 0.19 (0.05) (0.18) (0.17) (0.20)

Financial Summary

7

(1) Represents Canadian combined federal and provincial statutory rate

Adjusted EBITDA Variance

8

(US $ millions)

Q4 2015 Q4 2015 2015 vs. vs. vs. Q3 2015 Q4 2014 2014

Adjusted EBITDA – current period $ 57 $ 57 $ 122 Adjusted EBITDA – comparative period 30 14 115 Variance 27 43 7 Mill nets(1) 39 14 (107) Volume(2) (4) 6 21 Key input prices(3) 4 12 39 Key input usage(3) (3) 4 13 Mill profit share and bonus

• (1)
• Other operating costs and foreign exchange(4)

(9) 8 41 Total 27 43 7

1) The mill nets variance represents the estimated impact of change in realized pricing across all products. Mill nets are calculated as sales (net of

• utbound freight costs) divided by shipment volume.

2) The volume variance represents the impact of shipment volume changes across all products. 3) The key inputs include wood fibre, resin, wax and energy. 4) The other operating costs and foreign exchange category covers all remaining variances including labour and benefits, and maintenance.

Liquidity and Capital Resources

9

(US $ millions, except per share information)

2016 Target 2015 2014

Cash provided by operating activities $ 24 $ 16 Cash provided by operating activities per share 0.28 0.19 Operating working capital 125 106 Investment in property, plant and equipment & intangible assets 75(1) 70 105

(1) Excluding $135 million strategic reinvestment in Inverness, Scotland, OSB mill over next two years.

Balance Sheet

10

(US $ millions, unless otherwise noted)

Bank Covenant

Dec 31, 2015 Dec 31, 2014(1)

Long-term debt, principal value $ 755 $ 440 Add: Other long-term debt(2) 30

• Less: Cash and cash equivalents

(9) (25) Net debt 776 415 Less: Other long-term debt(2) (30)

• Add: Letters of credit

5 3 Net debt for financial covenant purposes 751 418 Tangible net worth 724 404 Net debt to capitalization, book basis

• max. 65%

51% 51%

Liquidity of $344 million = $9 million in cash + $335 million in unused credit lines

(1) Not restated for the merger with Ainsworth and reflect Norbord an a standalone basis (2) Drawings under A/R securitization program (carved out of Net debt for financial covenant purposes)

• Min. $450 post merger

$250 pre merger

Appendices

$0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 $300 $350 $400 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Annual Average NC Price US$ per Msf 7/16"

OSB Prices Strong Over the Cycle

12

Appendices

Historical North Central Benchmark OSB Price

Source: Random Lengths

15-year average

Q1 132 163 175 423 364 285 145 137 154 212 198 203 417 219 193 Q2 190 159 215 443 297 238 156 179 146 295 173 235 347 219 193 Q3 180 159 381 351 303 181 177 201 178 180 184 313 252 216 204 Q4 140 156 401 264 317 166 165 170 172 191 190 332 245 216 242 Average 160 159 293 369 320 217 161 172 163 219 186 271 315 218 209

Forecast OSB Pricing – North Central 7/16”

13

Appendices

Norbord does not provide guidance regarding its expectations of future OSB prices. The following is a sample of price forecasts by analysts as at January 27, 2016. It is not exhaustive. Annual Average North Central Benchmark OSB Price

US$ per Msf 7/16”

Analyst 2016F 2017F Dundee Capital Markets 215 235 Raymond James 260 280 RBC Capital Markets 270 300 Scotia Capital 241 258 TD Securities 250 275 Vertical Research Partners 235 340 Average $245 $281

North American Capacity Restarted to Meet Growing Demand

14

Appendices

39 Mills in Operation 8 Mills Indefinitely Curtailed North American OSB Installed Capacity: Norbord Mill 6 Mills (Re)started in 2013

Source: Company documents and other public filings

Financial Sensitivities

15

Appendices (1) Assumes operation at full stated capacity levels Direct exposures only; before the impact of any cash flow currency hedges Approximate operating loss carry-forwards for tax purposes (gross) as at Dec. 31, 2015 – US $186 million, Canada C$483 million, Belgium €33 million (2) Operating exposures only (excludes dividends on common shares)

Exposure Change Adjusted EBITDA Impact (1)

(US$ millions)

North American OSB $10 per Msf-7/16” + $58 European OSB €10 per 000 m3 + $8 Canadian dollar (2) $0.01 per C$ + $3 Pound sterling £0.01 per € < $1