Q2 2015 Earnings Presentation July 2015 Notices Forward-Looking - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Q2 2015 Earnings Presentation

July 2015

Forward-Looking Statements & Non-IFRS Financial Information

• All financial references are expressed in US$ unless otherwise noted.
• This presentation contains forward-looking statements and estimates.
• Actual company results could differ materially from a conclusion, forecast or

projection in the forward-looking information.

• Certain material factors or assumptions were applied in drawing a conclusion or

making a forecast or projection as reflected in the forward-looking information.

• Additional information can be found in the Company’s annual information form,

annual and quarterly MD&A, and on Norbord’s website (www.norbord.com) about the material factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from the conclusion, forecast or projection in the forward-looking information, and the material factors or assumptions that were applied in drawing a conclusion or making a forecast or projection as reflected in the forward-looking information.

• During the course of this presentation, certain non-IFRS financial information will be
• presented. Definitions and reconciliation of terms can be found in the Company’s

annual and quarterly MD&A.

2

Notices

Q2 2015 Financial and Operational Highlights

• Merger with Ainsworth completed on March 31, 2015
• Captured merger synergies of $4 million (annualized); on track to reach 50% run rate
• f $45 million annualized target by year-end
• Adjusted EBITDA of $18 million
• Record quarterly production at four mills
• Margin improvement gains of $21 million YTD
• Manufacturing costs decreased by 7% YoY due to increased productivity, lower resin

prices, improved raw material usages and weaker Canadian dollar

• Declared CAD $0.10/share quarterly dividend payable September 21, 2015

3

Note: Results reflect combined performance following completion of merger with Ainsworth and prior comparatives have been restated

US Housing Starts

4

(1) Based on US housing economist forecasts Source: US Department of Commerce, except where otherwise noted

0.61 0.78 0.93 1.00 1.10

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015F

June YTD data: housing starts up 11% and single family starts up 9% YoY

(1)

(in millions)

North American Benchmark OSB Prices

5

US $/Msf-7/16” 219 216 216 193 193 199 177 181 175 174 206 187 172 159 152 150 160 170 180 190 200 210 220 230 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015

North Central South East Western Canada

Source: Random Lengths

Spread SE vs NC 20 39 35 18 19 Spread WC vs NC 13 29 44 34 41

European Indicative OSB Prices(1)

6

€/m3

(1) European indicative average OSB price represents the gross delivered price to the largest Continental market

269 258 248 232 218 200 210 220 230 240 250 260 270 280 1 2 3 4 5

Q2 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2014

(US $ millions, except per share information)

Q2 Q1 Q2 YTD YTD 2015 2015 2014 2015 2014

Sales 365 351 419 716 820 Adjusted EBITDA North America 11 11 37 22 65 Europe 10 7 12 17 25 Unallocated (3) (4) (3) (7) (8) Total 18 14 46 32 82 Reported (loss) earnings (23) (37) 23 (60) 16 Adjust for: Costs related to Ainsworth merger 3 7

• 10
• Costs on terminated LP acquisition
• 2

Costs on early extinguishment of Ainsworth Notes 25

• 25
• Revaluation (gain) loss on Ainsworth Notes
• 23

(10) 23 (2) Reported income tax recovery (22) (14) (1) (36) (2) Income tax recovery (expense) at statutory rate(1) 4 6 (3) 10 (4) Adjusted (loss) earnings (13) (15) 9 (28) 10 Adjusted EPS, basic (0.15) (0.18) 0.11 (0.33) 0.12 Adjusted EPS, diluted (0.15) (0.18) 0.10 (0.33) 0.12

Financial Summary

7

(1) Represents Canadian combined federal and provincial statutory rate

Adjusted EBITDA Variance

8

(US $ millions)

Q2 2015 Q2 2015 YTD 2015 vs. vs. vs. Q1 2015 Q2 2014 YTD 2014

Adjusted EBITDA – current period $ 18 $ 18 $ 32 Adjusted EBITDA – comparative period 14 46 82 Variance 4 (28) (50) Mill nets(1) (14) (51) (87) Volume(2) 7 1 1 Key input prices(3) 6 11 18 Key input usage(3) 5 4 7 Mill profit share and bonus

• 1

1 Maintenance and other(4)

• 6

10 Total 4 (28) (50)

1) The mill nets variance represents the estimated impact of change in realized pricing across all products. Mill nets are calculated as sales (net of

• utbound freight costs) divided by shipment volume.

2) The volume variance represents the impact of shipment volume changes across all products. 3) The key inputs include wood fibre, resin, wax and energy. 4) The maintenance and other category covers all remaining variances including labour and benefits, and the impact of foreign exchange.

Liquidity and Capital Resources

9

(US $ millions, except per share information)

Q2 Q1 Q2 YTD YTD 2015 2015 2014 2015 2014

Cash (used for) provided by operating activities $ (3) $ (52) $ 15 $ (55) $ (26) Cash (used for) provided by operating activities per share (0.04) (0.61) 0.18 (0.64) (0.31) Operating working capital 151 146 158 Investment in property, plant and equipment 15 13 32 28 53

Balance Sheet

10

(US $ millions, unless otherwise noted)

Bank Covenant Q2 2015 Q1 2015(1) Q4 2014(1) Q2 2014(1)

Long-term debt, principal value $ 755 $ 440 $ 440 440 Add: Other long-term debt (2) 50 45

• Add: Bank advances
• 3
• Less: Cash and cash equivalents

(10) (4) (25) (83) Net debt 795 484 415 357 Less: Other long-term debt (2) (50) (45)

• Add: Letters of credit

4 3 3 3 Net debt for financial covenant purposes 749 442 418 360 Tangible net worth 738 388 404 453 Net debt to capitalization, book basis

• max. 65%

50% 53% 51% 44%

• Liquidity of $326 million = $10 million in cash + $316 million in unused credit lines

(1) Not restated for the merger and are the originally disclosed amounts (2) Drawings under A/R securitization program (carved out of Net debt for financial covenant purposes)

• Min. $450 post merger

$250 pre merger

Appendices

OSB Prices Strong Over the Cycle

12

Appendices

Historical North Central Benchmark OSB Price

Source: Random Lengths

$0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 $300 $350 $400 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Annual Average NC Price US$ per Msf 7/16"

15-year average

Q1 261 132 163 175 423 364 285 145 137 154 212 198 203 417 219 193 Q2 240 190 159 215 443 297 238 156 179 146 295 173 235 347 219 193 Q3 171 180 159 381 351 303 181 177 201 178 180 184 313 252 216 Q4 155 140 156 401 264 317 166 165 170 172 191 190 332 245 216 Average 207 160 159 293 369 320 217 161 172 163 219 186 271 315 218

Forecast OSB Pricing – North Central 7/16”

13

Appendices

Norbord does not provide guidance regarding its expectations of future OSB prices. The following is a sample of price forecasts by analysts as at July 29, 2015. It is not exhaustive. Annual Average North Central Benchmark OSB Price

US$ per Msf 7/16”

Analyst 2015F 2016F CIBC World Markets 207 260 Dundee Capital Markets 192 205 Raymond James 215 260 RBC Capital Markets 215 250 Scotia Capital 211 256 TD Securities 208 250 Vertical Research Partners 205 280 Average $212 $252

North American Capacity Restarted to Meet Growing Demand

14 38 Mills in Operation 8 Mills Indefinitely Curtailed North American OSB Installed Capacity: Norbord Mill 6 Mills (Re)started in 2013

Source: Company documents and other public filings

Appendices

Financial Sensitivities

15

Appendices (1) Pro forma for the Ainsworth merger Assumes operation at full stated capacity levels Direct exposures only; before the impact of any cash flow currency hedges Approximate tax operating loss carry-forwards (gross) as at Dec. 31, 2014 – US $133 million, Canada C$300 million, Belgium €34 million (2) Operating exposures only (excludes dividends on common shares)

Exposure Change Adjusted EBITDA Impact (1)

(US$ millions)

North American OSB $10 per Msf-7/16” + $58 European OSB €10 per 000 m3 + $8 Canadian dollar (2) $0.01 per C$ + $3 Pound sterling £0.01 per € < $1