Q2 Earnings Presentation July 2019 2 General: This presentation - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

q2 earnings presentation
SMART_READER_LITE
LIVE PREVIEW

Q2 Earnings Presentation July 2019 2 General: This presentation - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Q2 Earnings Presentation July 2019 2 General: This presentation and comments associated with it contains Accordingly, readers should exercise caution in relying upon forward- historical information, descriptions of current circumstances


slide-1
SLIDE 1

Q2 Earnings Presentation

July 2019

slide-2
SLIDE 2

2

General: This presentation and comments associated with it contains historical information, descriptions

  • f

current circumstances and statements about potential future developments and anticipated financial

  • results. Readers are cautioned that this presentation is qualified in its

entirety by reference to, and must be read in conjunction with, the information contained in West Fraser Timber Co. Ltd.’s (WFT’s) management’s discussion and analysis for the annual and interim periods ended December 31, 2018 and June 30, 2019 respectively, (MD&A), and the company’s annual audited and interim financial statements available

  • n SEDAR (www.sedar.com). A person is not entitled to rely on parts of

the information contained in this presentation to the exclusion of others. Forward-looking Statements: This presentation contains “forward- looking statements” (including those under the headings Supply Conditions and Summary) within the meaning of applicable securities

  • laws. Forward-looking statements, are presented to provide reasonable

guidance to the reader but their accuracy depends on a number of assumptions and is subject to various risks and uncertainties. In some cases, forward-looking statements can be identified by the use of forward-looking terminology such as “plans”, “targets”, “expects” or “does not expect”, “an opportunity exists”, “outlook”, “prospects”, “strategy”, “intends”, “believes”, or variations of such words and phrases

  • r state that certain actions, events or results “may”, “could”, “would”,

“might”, “will”, “will be taken”, “occur” or “be achieved”. In addition, any statements that refer to expectations, intentions, projections or other characterizations of future events or circumstances contain forward- looking information. Statements containing forward-looking information are not historical facts but instead represent management’s expectations, estimates and projections regarding future events or

  • circumstances. By their nature, forward-looking statements involve

numerous assumptions, inherent risks and uncertainties, both general and specific, which contribute to the possibility that the predictions, forecasts and other forward-looking statements will not occur. Actual

  • utcomes and results of these statements will depend on a number of

factors including those matters described under “Risks and Uncertainties”, in our MD&A and may differ materially from those anticipated or projected. Reference should be made to the other factors discussed in public filings with securities regulatory authorities. . Accordingly, readers should exercise caution in relying upon forward- looking- statements and WFT undertakes no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether written or

  • ral, to reflect subsequent events or circumstances except as required

by applicable securities laws. Non-IFRS Measures: This presentation makes reference to certain non-IFRS measures, such as EBITDA, Adjusted EBITDA and net debt to capital ratio. Non-IFRS measures do not have a standardized meaning prescribed by IFRS and are therefore unlikely to be comparable to similar measures presented by others. For further information regarding the use of non-IFRS measures please refer to the “Non-IFRS Measures” section in the MD&A External Information: Where this presentation quotes any information or statistics from any external source, it should not be interpreted that WFT has adopted or endorsed such information or statistics as being accurate. Some of the information presented herein is based on or derived from statements by third parties and has not been independently verified by or on behalf by WFT, and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, completeness or correctness of this information or any other information

  • r opinions contained herein.

Currency: In this presentation, all amounts are in Canadian dollars, unless otherwise indicated. Terminology: References in this presentation to “MMfbm” or “mmfbm” mean million board feet, “SPF” means spruce-pine-fir and “SYP” means southern yellow pine. For any other technical terms used in this presentation, please see the Glossary of Industry Terms found in our most recent Annual Report.

slide-3
SLIDE 3

3

0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% $270 $280 $290 $300 $310 $320 $330 $340 $350

Q117 Q217 Q317 Q417 Q118 Q218 Q318 Q418 Q119

Expenditures % change

Demand conditions U.S.

20 40 60 80 100 120 140 J F M A M J J A S O N D

U.S. Housing Starts (not seasonally adjusted)

2017 2018 2019 Seasonally adjusted: 2017: 1,203 2018: 1,250 2019: 1,238 ytd June Repair and renovation growth continues

Leading indicator of Remodeling Activity

Monthly $B 4 Qtr Moving Improvements and Repairs 4 Qtr Moving rate of Change Source: US Census Bureau Source: Harvard Joint Centre for Housing Studies

Limited growth needed for increased demand of 1 – 2 billion board feet

U.S. Housing Forecast (000) 2019 2020 RBC 1,313 1,335 Wells Fargo 1,270 1,290 Mortgage Bankers 1,268 1,3285 RISI 1,265 1,290 NAHB 1,250 1,286 FEA 1,248 1,339 APA 1,230 1,220 Fannie May 1,229 1,257 Average (May 2019 Fcst) 1,259 1,292

50k annual

increase in housing starts

3% growth in repair and renovation

~600Mfbm increase in lumber demand ~1,000Mfbm increase in lumber demand

slide-4
SLIDE 4

4 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 2018Q4 2019 Q1 2019 Q2 North America Curtailments

Supply conditions

5 10 15 20 25 BC Canada US Total NA Lumber Supply

Ytd 04-18 Ytd 04-19 Down 16% Down 9% Up 1% Down 4%

Source: Western Wood Products Association, management estimates Source: Industry analysts, public filings, management estimates, FEA

Supply growth challenges

  • Temporary curtailments become permanent in the BC Interior
  • Over 1.9 billion feet of North America permanent curtailment already announced
  • Curtailments likely to have larger impact on supply in Q3/Q4
  • Contractor availability and lead times inhibiting projects in the US South
  • Long start up curves on new projects in US South
  • Residual markets impacting (new and existing) facilities

Billion fbm MMfbm

Mix of temporary and permanent

Curtailments likely to affect supply in second half

slide-5
SLIDE 5

5

* Adjusted EBITDA is defined as operating earnings plus amortization, equity based compensation, restructuring and impairment charges and export duties.

Consolidated Financial Results

$ Millions Adjusted EBITDA Q2-19 Q1-19 Lumber $ 39 $ 84 Panels 10 15 Pulp & Paper 7 11 Corporate/Other

  • Total

$ 56 $ 110 EBITDA margin 4.2% 8.9% Q2-19 Q1-19 Sales $ 1,317 $ 1,241 Cost and Expenses 1,375 1,231 Restructure/Impairment 26

  • Operating earnings

(84) 10 Finance Expense (13) (11) Other (6) (5) Earnings before Tax $ (103) $ (6) Tax recovery 45 1 Net earnings $ (58) $ (5) Diluted EPS $ (0.92) $ (0.12)

Challenging conditions continue

slide-6
SLIDE 6

6

Q2 Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA Reconciliation

slide-7
SLIDE 7

7

Q2 Lumber Adjusted EBITDA Reconciliation

slide-8
SLIDE 8

8

Q2-19 versus Q1-19

$ millions unless

  • therwise indicated

Q2 2019 Q1 2019 Change Lumber Production (MMfbm) 1,536 1,462 74 5%

Production up slightly despite similar curtailments in both quarters due to stronger operating performance

Lumber Shipments (MMfbm) 1,686 1,444 242 17%

SPF and SYP shipments higher as inventory reduced during curtailment periods

Pulp Shipments (Mtonnes) 305 318 (13) 4%

NBSK shipments slightly lower coming out of maintenance shut downs

Adjusted EBITDA $56 $110 $(54) (49%)

Adjusted EBITDA off in all segments due to lower commodity pricing, fibre costs inflation and curtailment impacts

Cash flow from operations $187 $(228) $(41)

Seasonal log inventory reduction in western Canada, drawdown in lumber inventories

Capital Expenditure $82 $108 $(26)

Continuing to execute on capital plans and US South modernization program

Net Debt Net Debt to Capital $930 26% $1,001 27% $(71)

Net debt down slightly from prior quarter, significant financial flexibility and wide margin of safety

Cumulative duties on deposit US$ $312 $276 $36

Significant duties on deposit

Share buybacks $31 $50 $(19)

Continued to return capital

Despite difficult 2019 so far, maintaining focus on priorities

slide-9
SLIDE 9

9

  • $100

$0 $100 $200 $300 $400 $500 $600 $700 $800 $900

2017 2018 Q1-17 Q1-18 Q1-19 Q2-19

Available liquidity

Bank lines Cash Increase in revolving credit facility

Liquidity

$0 $100 $200 $300 $400 $500 $600 $700 $800 $900 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Term loan Notes Revolver Other

Scheduled maturities

Ample financial flexibility

Cash consists of cash and short-term investments less cheques issued in excess of funds on deposit.

slide-10
SLIDE 10

10 10

Summary

✕ Major maintenance shut downs at both NBSK mills ✕ Cold and wet weather interrupts

  • perations, potentially affecting

housing activity ✕ Multiple production curtailments disrupt operating rhythm ✕ Multiple major capex projects underway in US South ✓ Resume normal operating schedules in pulp and lumber

  • perations

✓ Moderating weather conditions ✓ Potential for supply and demand

  • f lumber to rebalance

✓ Balance of year capital anticipated to be less disruptive

First Half Headwinds Second Half Opportunities