Purpose and Outline Demographics demographics ( dm' - grf ' ks ) - - PDF document

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Introduction: Who is this presenter? Terrance (Terry) J. Bogyo (BSc, MBA, CCRC, RRP) Independent Researcher | Speaker | Consultant 1665 58 A Street Delta, BC V4L 1X5 AASCIF Convention 2015: e-mail: Terry.Bogyo@gmail.com Bridging the

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AASCIF Convention 2015: Bridging the Future San Francisco July 6

Terrance J. Bogyo Independent Researcher | Speaker | Consultant

Introduction: Who is this presenter?

Terrance (Terry) J. Bogyo (BSc, MBA, CCRC, RRP)

Independent Researcher | Speaker | Consultant 1665 58 A Street Delta, BC V4L 1X5 e-mail: Terry.Bogyo@gmail.com Blog: www.WorkersCompPerspectives.wordpress.com Phone: (604) 943-3545 Skype: terry.bogyo

Canada and California are not so very different when it comes to Workers’ Compensation

 Canada

 Employed labour force 2014:

17,802,200

 Estimated covered by workers’

comp boards:

 2013: 14.8 million

 Actual [weighted]Average

Assessment Rate for Assessable employers [2013]($/$100): 1.94  California

 Employment

Dec 2014: 17,566,281

 Estimated number of

workers covered by workers’ comp insurance:

 2014: 14.7 million

 Average Workers’

Compensation Insurer Rate per $100 of Payroll, as of June 30, 2014 (Dollar $): 2.96

Canada and California are not so very different when it comes to Workers’ Compensation

 Canada  Typical TT Compensation rate:



90% of Net Earnings



No waiting period



Max insured 2014: varies by province- BC: $77,900 Alberta: $92,300 Manitoba: No Max, Ontario: $84,100  Administration Costs for Assessable Employers ($000's) ($) 2011: $1,474,841  [No equivalent for underwriting profit]  California  Typical TT Compensation rate:



2/3rds Average Weekly Wage



Three day waiting period



Max insured 2014: $1,611.96 per week  Administration costs for insured

employers 2007*:



Insurer underwriting profit: $1,976 million,



Administration expense: $5,323 million

*IWH Workers' compensation in California and Canada https://www.iwh.on.ca/briefings/comp-california- canada 2010

Purpose and Outline

Demographic Effects: Global Changes – Local Impacts  Purpose:

 To persuade you that global demographic changes matter.

 Outline

 What we mean by demographics  How workforce and population demographics are changing  What demographic change means to you and me, our

families, our communities– and AASCIF jurisdictions

Demographics

 dem·o·graph·ics (dĕm'ə-grăf'ĭks) noun

 shortened term for ‘population characteristics’ including

 race, age, income, educational attainment  Healthcare plan membership, multiple-job holding  home ownership, employment status, location  ...

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Top 10 Countries by Population

http://sasweb.ssd.census.gov/idb/ranks.html Viewed May 21, 2015

200,000,000 400,000,000 600,000,000 800,000,000 1,000,000,000 1,200,000,000 1,400,000,000 1,600,000,000 2015 2025 2035

Rise and Fall of Top Economies by 2050

 Philippines will advance 27 places to 16th largest economy.  Japan’s working population will contract by a 37%  Advanced economies in Europe will see working population dwindle  Biggest drop will be felt

northern Europe:



Denmark to 56th ( -29),



Norway to 48th ( -22),



Sweden to 38th (-20)



Finland to 57th (-19).

 HSBC 2050 list of top economies (change in rank from 2010)

1) China (+2) 2) U.S. (-1) 3) India (+5) 4) Japan (-2) 5) Germany (-1)

16) Philippines (+27)

6) UK (-1)

7) Brazil (+2) 8) Mexico (+5) 9) France (-3) 10) Canada (same)

January 12th, 2012 “World’s top economies in 2050 will be...” Posted by: CNN.com business producer, Kevin Voigt http://business.blogs.cnn.com/2012/01/12/worlds-top-economies-in-2050-will-be/

Top 10 Countries by Population speaking…

Country English Speakers United States 251,388,301 India 125,226,449 Philippines 89,800,000 Nigeria 79,000,000 United Kingdom 59,600,000 Germany 46,272,504 Canada 25,246,220 France 23,000,000 Australia 17,357,833 Italy 17,000,000 Country Spanish Speakers Mexico 109,955,400 Colombia 45,013,674 United States 44,321,038 Argentina 40,677,348 Spain 40,491,051 Peru 29,180,899 Venezuela 26,414,815 Chile 16,454,143 Ecuador 13,927,650 Guatemala 13,002,206

Source: www.Mapsofworld.com 2013 data

Population Changes in the US

 By 2050, out of every 10:

 5 Americans will be white  3 Hispanic  1 Black  1 Asian



Jeffrey S. Passel and D’Vera Cohn, US Population Projections, 2005-2050, Pew Research Center February 11, 2008

 “It is estimated that by 2050

the United States will be home to more 130 million Hispanics, making it the largest Spanish- speaking nation on the planet.”



Peter Reuell, “Watching Spanish grow: FAS-based

bservatory to be a center for language study”

, Harvard Gazette, June 26, 2013 http://pewhispanic.org/files/reports/85.pdf

America’s Hinge Moment

 Presidential politics in 2016 will reflect the shifting reality of America

 1980 – 80% US

population was white

 2060 - <44%

Politico Magazine – Mar 29, 2015: America’s Hinge Moment by Doug Sosnik (democratic strategist, former advisor to Pres. Bill Clinton)

Average Employment Income by Age Group & Education Level

$0 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 $70,000 $80,000 $90,000 20 to 24 25 to 29 30 to 34 35 to 39 40 to 44 45 to 49 50 to 54 55 to 59 60 to 64

Less than high school High school Trades College University

Source: Statistics Canada, 2006 Census of Population. Note: data is 2005 dollars

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Unemployment and Weekly Earnings by Demographic

f “Educational Attainment” – US 2012

13.0 11.0 9.0 7.0 5.0 3.0 1.0

Unemployment rate in 2012 (Percent)

500 1000 1500 Less than a high school diploma High school diploma Some college, no degree Associate's degree Bachelor's degree Master's degree Doctoral degree Professional degree

Median weekly earnings ($)

Occupations with higher than average projected growth rates 2012-22

BLS: US Future Job Outlook http://www.census.gov/newsroom/cspan/emplo yment_projections/20140131_employment_proj ections_slides.pdf

Demographics of Multiple Job Holders (Concurrent Employment)

 Multiple Jobholding

 5-6% of the employed

labour force

 Ranges up to nearly 10%  In some occupations, nearly

30%  Highest among women,

young adults(20-24)

Sex and occupation Multiple jobholding rate (percent) Men 

Firefighters................................................. 28.6  Emergency medical technicians &paramedics...20.1  Secondary school teachers......................... 14.0  Social workers............................................. 13.5  Elementary and middle school teachers....... 11.5

Women 

Dental hygienists........................................ 12.9 Psychologists.............................................. 12.5  Postsecondary teachers............................... 11.9  Physical therapists...................................... 11.7  Therapists, all other..................................... 11.5

Half of North American WC Jurisdictions don’t cover Temporary Total Disability loss on Concurrent jobs

 Most generous cover losses in all multiple jobs for Total Temp Disability including uninsured and self-employment

 (Ohio, WorkSafeBC)

 Some restrict coverage

 Similar Employment (Oklahoma)  Concurrent employment known

to accident employer (Kentucky)

 IRS Reported Income (Texas, ND)  WC covered employment

(WorkSafeNB, Kentucky)

 AASCIF

 Good news for multiple

job holders.

 Prevalence of multiple job

holding is higher than national averages in AASCIF states

 Most member jurisdictions

(Canada and the US) cover concurrent employment for TTD fully or with some restrictions

Demographic: SSDI Recipients

California

 Has 8% of the nation’s

SSDIrecipients (2012)

 That’s 3.1% of the state

resident population aged 18 to 64 (4.7% nationally)

 (762,133 recipients

Dec 2012)  Most common causes

 Mental disorders 305,382

 (“mood disorders” 127,452)

 Musculoskeletal 214,719

US SS Disability Insurance Recipients at year end: 1999 4,879,455 2013 8,942,584 Monthly Expenditure as of January 2014 (disabled workers only) $10.236 Billion

Social Security benefits, January 2014 Quick Facts Table 2 http://www.ssa.gov/policy/docs/quickfacts/stat_snapshot/

That’s about $123B per year. About a third of all countries

n earth have a GDP less than

that value.

Demographic: SSDI Recipients

California

 Has 8% of the nation’s

SSDI recipients (2012)

 That’s 3.1% of the state

resident population aged 18 to 64 (4.7% nationally)

 (762,133 recipients

Dec 2012)  Most common causes

 Mental disorders 305.382

 (“mood disorders” 127,452)

 Musculoskeletal 214,719

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SSDI Trust Fund Ratio

Fund Ratio =

𝐵𝑡𝑡𝑓𝑢 𝑆𝑓𝑡𝑓𝑠𝑤𝑓𝑡 𝐵𝑜𝑜𝑣𝑏𝑚 𝐷𝑝𝑡𝑢 × 100

Current Ratio= 62% Projection: Reserve depletion in 2016

Social Security Disability Insurance

 “Social Security’s Disability Insurance (DI) program satisfies neither the Trustees’ long- range test of close actuarial balance nor their short-range test of financial adequacy and faces the most immediate financing shortfall of any of the separate trust funds.”

 Reason: “…largely reflects the fact that the baby

boomers have been aging through the years of high disability incidence”

 Result: 62% Funded Ratio  Recommendation: “Lawmakers need to act soon

to avoid automatic reductions in payments to DI beneficiaries in late 2016.”

Your “Demographic”

 baby boomer - People born between (and including) 1946 and 1964.  generation X - 1963 and 1978 (or 1961 to 1981).  generation Y – aka millennials (Echo Boomers) - 1981 and 1997(ish).  generation Z - loosely defined as those born after 1995 and who are now 20 and young. It’s a big group: two billion worldwide, and one-quarter of the North American population.

Let’s get personal

On the top of the page write

The year you were born Your age on your birthday this year The age you expect to retire What do you think your life expectancy was at birth? If you were 65 today, how many more years do you think you might live? Do you plan to work after you reach retirement age?

So, How will the US Labor Force change?

 Higher rates

f participation

for women  Lower rates for men

 Based on Data from: US Census Bureau, 2012 Statistical Abstract - Employment Projections Table 587- Civilian Labor Force and Participation Rates  http://www.census.gov/compendia/statab/ca ts/labor_force_employment_earnings/emplo yment_projections.html

50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85

Demographic Groups - Participation Rate (%) Civilian Labor Force

White Male White Female Black Male Black Female Asian Male Asian Female Hispanic Male Hispanic Female

US Women Participation Rates in the Civilian Labour Force 1950-2007 and 2012 (unadjusted, quarterly averages by year)

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 16-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 age categories Participation Rate (%) 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2007 2007 M 2012 Source: Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population Survey DATA.BLS.GOV

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Labor Force Participation Rate of Workers 65 and Over 1948-2007 and projections to 2022

http://www.bls.gov/spotlight/2008/older_workers/

Data extracted from "Labor force projections to 2022: the labor force participation rate continues to fall," published in the December 2013 Monthly Labor Review.

35% 40% 45% 50% 55% 60% 65%

Work Status- Percent Full and Part Time - Employed Age 65 and older - Unadjusted Annual – 1977- 2007 and 2009 - 2014

Part-time Full-time

Great Recession – Dec 2007 – June 2009

http://www.bls.gov/spotlight/2008/older_workers/ Current Population Survey- Annual – 2009 – 2014 Unadjusted LNU02600097 and LNU02500097 extracted June 15, 2015

Employed age 65 and over

Employed Part-time – (thousands) Employed Full time – (thousands)

Series Id: LNU02500097 Not Seasonally Adjusted Series title: (unadj) Employed, usually work full time - 65 years and over Labor force status: Employed full time (persons who usually work 35 hours or more) Type of data: Number in thousands Age: 65 years and over Series Id: LNU02600097 Not Seasonally Adjusted Series title: (unadj) Employed, usually work part time - 65 years and over Labor force status: Employed part time (persons who usually work less than 35 hours) Type of data: Number in thousands Age: 65 years and over

50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450

Jan-76 Aug-77 Mar-79 Oct-80 May-82 Dec-83 Jul-85 Feb-87 Sep-88 Apr-90 Nov-91 Jun-93 Jan-95 Aug-96 Mar-98 Oct-99 May-01 Dec-02 Jul-04 Feb-06 Sep-07 Apr-09 Nov-10 Jun-12 Jan-14

Canada- Employment Age 65 and older Full and Part-time Jan 1976 to May 2015 (thousands)

Canada Full-time employment (4) Both sexes 65 years and over Canada Part-time employment (5) Both sexes 65 years and over

59% Fulltime

Extracted from Statistics Canada. Table 282-0001 - Labour force survey estimates (LFS), by sex and detailed age group, unadjusted for seasonality, monthly (accessed: June 18, 2015))

New study ranks Alzheimer’s as third-leading cause of death, after heart disease and cancer

Washington Post

 By Tara Bahrampour, Published: March 5, 2014

 Contribution of Alzheimer disease to mortality in the United States

 Bryan D. James, PhD, Sue E. Leurgans, PhD, Liesi E. Hebert, ScD, Paul A. Scherr, PhD, ScD, Kristine Yaffe, MD and David A. Bennett, MD  Published online before print March 5, 2014, doi: 10.1212/WNL.0000000000000240  Neurology 10.1212/WNL.0000000000000240

Alzheimer's Alzheimer's

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So, What’s Happening With Life Expectancy?

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 Prehistoric times Ancient Greece Medieval England Renaissance England Canada 1831 1841 1851 1861 1871 1881 1891 1901

Life Expectancy at Birth

Source: attributed to The Urban Futures Institute as published in “Planning for Retirement, Canadian Bankers Association.

Life Expectancy at Birth 1900-1902

 US All Both Sexes: 49.24 Males: 47.88 Females: 50.70

 Whites Both Sexes: 49.64 Males: 48.23 Females: 51.08  Blacks Both Sexes: 33.80 Males 32.54 Females: 35.04 National Vital Statistics Reports, Vol. 63, No. 7, November 6, 2014 Table 24 p. 54

 Canada Males: 51.1 Females: 51.4

Office of the Chief Actuary, Canada Pension Plan: Mortality Study-Actuarial Study No. 7, July 2009, Table 1

And Today…

 If you retire at age 55 having worked for 30 years…

 As a female, you will live nearly as many years longer as you

worked.  If you are married at age 60…

 There is a 50% probability that at least one of you will be

alive at age 90

 At age 65, having 35 years of work, your savings, SS (CP/OAS), and pension will have to support yourself for another 20 years

If you are 65 today, how many more years will you live?

Estimated median age in selected countries 2010 -2050

Japan South Korea Germany China Brazil Mexico United States

37.9 43.8

Canada

Canada from Statistics Canada, Population Projections for Canada, Provinces and Territories, Catalogue no. 91-520-X

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In the US…

2056:

 The year in which, for the first time, the population 65 and

lder would outnumber people younger than 18 in the U.S.

 Source: Population projections  http://www.census.gov/population/projections/data/national/2012.html

Fact

 It is astonishing to realize that more than half of all the human beings who have ever lived beyond the age of 65 are alive today. [prologue xxix]

 Aging: Concepts and Controversies 5th Edition



By Harry R. Moody



Published by Pine Forge Press [2006]



ISBN 1412915201, 9781412915205

The Truth —

An Inconvenient Inevitability

 The developed world – not just BC or Canada—is facing

 an “Age Tsunami”  a “Demographic Discontinuity”  A “Population Predicament”

 Chose your catch phrase… the truth is the same:

 A million people worldwide turn 60 every month  over the next 25 years, around 70 million people will retire

in developed countries… …and will be replaced by just five million [OECD 2003 Aging Housing and Urban Development]

“70 or bust!

Current plans to raise the retirement age are not bold enough”

 PUT aside the cruise brochures and let the garden retain that natural look for a few more years. Demography and declining investment returns are conspiring to keep you at your desk far longer than you ever expected.  This painful truth is no longer news in the rich world, and many governments have started to deal with the ageing

problem. They have announced increases in the official

retirement age that attempt to hold down the costs of state pensions while encouraging workers to stay in their jobs or get

n their bikes and look for new ones.

 Unfortunately, the boldest plans look inadequate. Older people are going to have to stay economically active longer than governments currently envisage; and that is going to require not just governments, but also employers and workers, to behave differently.

Economist: April 7, 2011 print edition

“Sweden considers raising retirement age to 75”

 Published 27 February 2013

 http://www.euractiv.com/health/sweden-prime-minister-considers-news-518068

 Swedes should be prepared to work until they are 75 and to change careers in the middle of their work life if they are to keep the welfare standards they expect, Swedish Prime Minister Fredrik Reinfeldt said.  Reinfeldt, who leads a centre-right government, also said half of today's children in Sweden can expect to become 100 years old and there has to be a change in the way the Swedes view their work life.

So, what will your future hold? When will you Retire?

Labour Force Exits vs. Life Expectancy and Official Retirement

75.0 67.9 66.5 65.5 65.3 64.9 64.3 64.1 63.9 63.9 63.2 63.1 62.9 62.3 62.2 61.9 61.9 61.3 61.3 61.0 61.0 60.9 60.8 60.3 59.5 58.5 58.3 58.2 57.9 57.7 54.5 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 Labour force exit rate Life expectancy at 65 Official 73.0 71.2 69.5 66.6 68.9 65.6 63.5 65.2 64.6 66.5 64.2 61.4 65.7 63.5 64.4 63.2 63.3 61.6 63.5 60.2 62.1 62.4 60.8 59.2 58.7 62.2 59.6 59.7 58.9 61.4 59.3 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 Labour force exit rate Life expectancy at 65 Official Mexico Korea Japan Portugal Iceland Ireland Turkey Switzerland United States New Zealand Norway Spain Sweden

OECD

Australia United Kingdom

Canada

Netherlands Denmark Finland Germany Greece Italy Luxembourg France Czech Republic Belgium Hungary Austria Poland Slovak Republic Mexico Korea Japan Portugal Iceland Ireland Turkey Switzerland United States New Zealand Norway Spain Sweden

OECD

Australia United Kingdom

Canada

Netherlands Denmark Finland Germany Greece Italy Luxembourg France Czech Republic Belgium Hungary Austria Poland Slovak Republic Society at a Glance 2009: OECD Social Indicators - OECD Chapter 5. Self-sufficiency Indicators. Version 1 - Last updated: 29-Apr-2009

Males Females

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15% of Canadians and 13% of Americans plan on never fully retiring

2015

Why will you work?

Money

(30% US 24% CDN)

Mental Stimulation

(15% US 18% CDN)

Keep Physically active

(22%US 21% CDN)

Connect with others

(7%US 11% CDN)

Have something

meaningful / valuable to with your time (21% US 23% CDN)

Semi-retired by choice…

2015

Gordon Waddell and A Kim Burton. Published by The Stationery Office, 2006. ISBN 0-11-703694-3. From the book by Gordon Waddell, A Kim Burton

M Frese & G Mohr 1987, “Prolonged Unemployment And Depression In Older Workers: A Longitudinal Study Of Intervening Variables.” Soc Sci Med 25: 173-178

 Re-employment in older workers can improve physical functioning and mental health. Haynes SG, McMichael AJ, Tyroler HA. 1978. “Survival After Early And Normal Retirement.” Journal of Gerontology 33: 269-278.  Mortality after early retirement is higher than would be expected in a corresponding working group: the only significant predictor is pre-retirement health status (i.e. a health selection effect). Taking all the data, no excess mortality was observed after normal retirement.

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Morris JK, Cook DG, Shaper AG. 1992. “Non-employment And Changes In Smoking, Drinking, And Body-weight.” BMJ304: 536-541

 Men who remained continuously employed had the lowest mortality, even after adjusting for socio- economic variables, manual/non-manual work and health-related behaviour. Even men who retired for reasons other than illness and who appeared to be relatively advantaged and healthy had a significantly increased risk (RR 1.87). The effect was non- specific: the increased risk of mortality from cancer was similar to that from cardiovascular disease.

Continue…

Tsai SP, Wendt JK, Donnelly RP, de Jong G, Ahmed FS. 2005. “Age At Retirement And Long Term Survival Of An Industrial Population: Prospective Cohort Study.” BMJ doi: 10.1136/bmj.38586.448704.EO.

 After adjusting for socioeconomic status, employees who retired early at 55 had greater mortality than those who retired at 65 — the mortality was about twice as high in the first 10 years after retirement. Early retirees who survived to 65 had higher post-65 mortality than those who had continued working. Mortality was similar in those who retired at 60 and 65. Mortality did not differ for the first 5 years after retirement at 60 compared with continuing work.

What does this mean?

 It looks like we will see more older people in our society, in

ur organizations and in our labour force

 What are we going to do to accommodate them?  And with more older workers, what are the costs likely to be?  Would it be fair to hire older workers but limit their rights to

health benefits, pension benefits…?

How many “Years of Potential Life” do I have?

75 80 85 90 95 100 105 110 115 120 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 105 110 115 Total Life Expectancy Age Total Life Expectancy by Age - US Mortality Tables based on US Social Security Online Life Table 2005

http://www.ssa.gov/OACT/STATS/table4c6.html

Male Female

1. Determine current age

2. Select Gender

3. Read

Total life Expectancy

Example:

Total Life expectancy at age 30 Female: 81.03 (51.03 YPL) Male: 76.6 (46.6 YPL)

How long was my life expectancy when I was born?

Sources: Adapted from BC Stats, Ministry of Technology, Innovation and Citizens' Services 1921-1946 :Longevity and Historical Life Tables, Dhruva Nagnur, Statistics Canada 1950-2013: BC Stats, Ministry of Technology, Innovation and Citizens' Services http://www.bcstats.gov.bc.ca/StatisticsBySubject/Demography/VitalStatistics.aspx as accessed Set 2, 2014

50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 1921 1936 1950 1953 1956 1959 1962 1965 1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013

Male Female Note: Population data after 1970 adjusted for non-permanent residents and undercount. Figures prepared through the use of single year of age life table. using deaths provided by Vital Statistics, Ministry of Health, and the average of consecutive years of population provided by Statistics Canada. Deaths are on a Census Year period basis (July 1, year 1, to June 30, year 2). Source population is date referenced July 1.

If I were 65 today, how long could I expect live?

10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 1950 1953 1956 1959 1962 1965 1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 Male Female

Source: Data from BC Stats, Ministry of Technology, Innovation and Citizens' Services http://www.bcstats.gov.bc.ca/StatisticsBySubject/Demography/VitalStatistics.aspx as accessed Set 2, 2014

Note: Population data after 1970 adjusted for non-permanent residents and undercount. Figures prepared through the use of single year of age life table. using deaths provided by Vital Statistics, Ministry of Health, and the average of consecutive years of population provided by Statistics Canada. Deaths are on a Census Year period basis (July 1, year 1, to June 30, year 2). Source population is date referenced July 1.

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Life Tables

Canadian Life BC Life Public Service Pension Plan

Age Male Female Male Female Male Female 55

80.01 84.11 81.20 84.84 83.22 86.62

80.84 84.72 81.98 85.41 83.80 86.99

81.98 85.52 83.01 86.16 84.96 87.61

Source: PensionsBC BC Pension Corp.

60 50 40 30 20 10

Population Pyramid

 From pre-history to pre-modern times …and in some modern-day tribes…

Some Modern Pyramids

One child policy starts 1979 Cultural Revolution/Gang of Four 1966-76

How are projections done?

 Cohort Component methods are commonly used (among

thers)

 Start with the male/female population by age (usually five year

groups)

 Look at the age-specific survival rates by gender and age category  Apply the fertility rates for the women and the gender ratios at

birth to get the number of new males and females to add

 Add the expected births for each gender to the top of the list, move

the survivors down one age category and repeat

 Variations include ethnicity, religion, region, adjustments for immigration, emigration, (and in-migration, out- migration) on a state or provincial basis), parity rates…

95 -99 90 - 94 85 - 89 80 - 84 75 - 79 70 - 74 65 - 69 60 - 64 55 - 59 50 - 54 45 - 49 40 - 44 35 - 39 30 - 34 25 - 29 20 - 24 15 - 19 10 - 14 5 - 9 0 - 4

From 2015 to 2020

Subtract deaths
Subtract Emigration
Add Immigration
Then shift categories

up one age grouping

????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????

95 -99 90 - 94 85 - 89 80 - 84 75 - 79 70 - 74 65 - 69 60 - 64 55 - 59 50 - 54 45 - 49 40 - 44 35 - 39 30 - 34 25 - 29 20 - 24 15 - 19 10 - 14 5 - 9 0 - 4

Apply live birth rate

to each age group

Then apply the

Gender Ratio

0 - 4

Males Females

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Switzerland Germany Japan Denmark Netherlands Sweden Norway British Columbia Finland Australia Canada Washington state New Zealand United Kingdom United States Puerto Rico Panama

Live Births per 1000 15 < 20 Year Old Girls /Women

http://www.doh.wa.gov/DataandStatisticalReports/VitalStatisticsData/BirthData/BirthTablesbyTopic http://www.bcstats.gov.bc.ca/StatisticsBySubject/Demography/VitalStatistics.aspx http://wdi.worldbank.org/table/2.17

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How many Males to Females?

 Roughly 105 to 107 males for every 100 females at birth is normal

 males have higher mortality in

childhood

 Women have higher mortality

in child birth but live longer

 One would expect the same ratio regardless of birth

rder

Country M/F ratio at birth Canada 106 United States 105 Hong Kong 113 China 111 India 112 Viet Nam 112

Source: CIA World Factbook at https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/fields/2018.html as accessed Sept 3, 2014

The war on baby girls

Gendercide

Killed, aborted or neglected, at least 100m girls have disappeared— and the number is rising

 Mar 4th 2010 | The Economist

China - Sex Ratio at Birth by birth order (parity), 1982-2005

105.6 105.2 109.4 109.9 107.1 151.9 160.3 161.4 108.4 143.2 156.4 141.8 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 1 2 3 4 1982 2000 2005

http://www.unfpa.org/gender/docs/studies/china.pdf After: Shuzhuo Li, “Imbalanced Sex Ratio at Birth and Comprehensive Intervention in China”, 4th Asia Pacific Conference on Reproductive and Sexual Health and Rights, 29-31 October 2007; HYDERABAD, INDIA

What do you do with millions of extra males?

 “…at their current levels, the number of single men would increase sharply from almost 19 million to 30.9 million between 2010 and 2040.  The percentage of single men would increase from 11.4 percent in 2010 to 25.5 percent by 2060.  In 2060, more than one quarter of men of marriageable age (approximately 24 million) would remain single and be unable to find partners.”

Tucker, C., & Van Hook, J. (2013). Surplus Chinese Men: Demographic Determinants of the Sex Ratio at Marriageable Ages in China. Population and Development Review, 39(2), 10.1111/j.1728–4457.2013.00589.x. doi:10.1111/j.1728-4457.2013.00589.x

Canada Population Projection BC Population 2015 and 2035

Source: Based on extract from BC Stats http://www.bcstats.gov.bc.ca/StatisticsBySubject/Demography/PopulationProjections.aspx as accessed Sept 2, 2014

SLIDE 12

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Dependency

Demographic Age Dependency Ratio: the

ratio of the combined youth population (0 to 19 years) and senior population (65 or older) to the working-age population (20 to 64 years).

Economic dependency: the number of people in the total

population (including the Armed Forces and children) who are not in the labor force, per hundred of those who are.

US Total Dependency Ratio

https://www.census.gov/prod/2010pubs/p25-1138.pdf

US Population Projection

California Population Projections Index of Change in Population

0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 Index

Indexed Projected Change in Population Groups (M&F, All Races)- California 2015-2060

0-19 20-64 65-84 85 and older

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13

White Hispanic Black 2+ Asian

Developed from California Department of Finance, P3: Population Projections (Release Dec 2014)

White Hispanic Black 2+ Asian

Developed from California Department of Finance, P3: Population Projections (Release Dec 2014)

Ohio 2015-2040

500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85+

Population (Count) Ohio 2015

500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85+

Population (Count) Ohio 2020

500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85+

Population (Count) Ohio 2025

500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85+

Population (Count) Ohio 2030

500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85+

Population (Count) Ohio 2035

500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85+

Population (Count) Ohio 2040

500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85+

Ohio 2015

Data extracted from: Ohio Services Development Agency http://development.ohio.gov/files/research/P6001.pdf

Maryland 2015-2040

Developed from 2014 Total Population Projections for Non-Hispanic White and All Other by Age, Sex and Race (7/8/14) Prepared by Maryland Department of Planning http://www.mdp.state.md.us/msdc/S3_Projection.shtml

Index of Change in Maryland Population

0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50

Index

Indexed Projected Change in Population Groups (M&F, All Races)- Maryland 2015-2040

0-19 20-64 65-84 85 and older

Kentucky

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0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 Index

Indexed Projected Change in Population Groups (M&F, All Races)- Kentucky 2015- 2060

0-19 20-64 65-84 85 and older

Maine Population Projections

0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00

2012 2017 2022 2027 2032 Index

Indexed Projected Change in Population Groups (M&F, All Races)- Maine 2012-2032

0-19 20-64 65-84 85 and older

Population Pyramid Points to Ponder

 Are the rights and needs of older people being addressed in our organizations, institutions and tribunals?  How are we going to address the rights and needs of women, particularly older women, as they increase in numbers?  Who will fill the roles in the economy as the population pyramids in western countries shift?

Workplaces

Demographics: The Growth and Structure

f Population

Key commodities and services required Employment

pportunities

available to workers Demand for Workers Occupations required Rates of Immigration Work Force Participation Rates Birth Rate Supply of Workers Demand for private consumption Demand/Need for public expenditures (especially Health care and Education)

Unemployed workers Employed workers

[Undocumented] Illegal immigrant workers [Documented] Temporary Foreign workers

Immigration?

 Possible source but…

 We are competing with every other industrialized nations for

the same skilled immigrants

 New immigrants bring new challenges and may be more

vulnerable to workplace injury, stress and adjustment

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15

Canada Source: "Citizenship and Immigration Canada, Facts and Figures". Citizenship and Immigration Canada. 2013. Retrieved Dec 7, 2013.

Canada Canadian Immigration China 13% Philippines 13% India 11% Pakistan 4% USA 4% USA US Immigration Mexico 14% China 7% India 7% Philippines 5% Dominican Rep 4%

US Source: U.S. Lawful Permanent Residents: 2013" (PDF). Annual Flow Report, May 2014

Australian Immigration New Zealand 18% India 12% China 12% UK 4% Philippines 4%

Australia Sourcehttps://www.immi.gov.au/media/fact-sheets/02key.htm /

Australia UK

UK Source: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/immigration-statistics-april-to-june-2014/immigration-statistics-april-to-june-2014#settlement-1

UK Immigration India 17% Pakistan 12% Nigeria 5% China 5% South Africa 4%

Immigration Trends: Canada(2012), US(2013), Australia(2012/13), UK(Q2 2014)

Temporary Foreign Workers?

 A growing source but…

 We are competing with every other industrialized nations for

the same skilled immigrants

 Temporary foreign workers bring new challenges and may be

more vulnerable to workplace injury, stress and adjustment

Increasing Participation Rates?

 Possible sources

 Retaining people (particularly younger people) in our

jurisdiction and labour force

 Increasing participation rates of women  Accommodating injured workers and disabled people who

would otherwise leave or be outside the labour force

 Older workers who would otherwise retire

Jurisdictional labour Force

Births 15+ years ago

Retired, disabled, students and others Not In labour Force

Deaths while in labour force Immigration of Workers Emigration of Workers

Immigration

Emigration

= Net Gain or Loss.

Back to Workers’ Compensation

 And why all of this is important to WorkSafeBC  How Demographic change has impacted our system already

15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

1 9 8 9 1 9 9 1 1 9 9 3 1 9 9 5 1 9 9 7 1 9 9 9 2 1 2 3 2 5 2 7 2 9 2 1 1 2 1 3 Average age (2013): Males 41 Females 43

Average Age of Injured Worker in B.C.

(Time-loss injuries only)

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http://pwhr.sites.olt.ubc.ca/files/2012/02/Annual-Report-1011.pdf

Source: http://www.ncci.com/Documents/AIS-2012-Harry-Shuford_AgingWorkforce.pdf

Health expenditures by Governments increase with age…

Source: Extracted from CIHI, Table E 1.14 Estimate of Total Provincial/Territorial Government Health Expenditures by Age and Sex, National Health Expenditure Trends, 1975 to 2013 as accessed at https://secure.cihi.ca/estore/productFamily.htm?locale=en&pf=PFC2400 on Sept 2, 2014

$0 $2,000 $4,000 $6,000 $8,000 $10,000 $12,000 $14,000 $16,000 $18,000 $20,000 <1 1-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85-89 90+ Female Male

Average Days Paid by Age Groups

20 40 60 80 100

15-19 20-24 24-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79

Age Groups

Average Days Paid

n= 500k time-loss claims Method: 1) claims divided into buckets by age at injury 2) Days paid per claim totaled and divided by number of claims in bucket

You’ve seen the truth…

(and just some of the questions)…

 What will these demographic changes mean in our lives,

ur society, our businesses and tribunals?

 What impacts is this having on Workers’ Compensation?

You need to think about the consequences

 Canadian and US societies are getting older  The evolving demographic picture will mean

 More older workers in the workforce

 More working longer in the same job  More working full time longer

 More workers with age-related conditions, impairments and

disabilities will be present in our communities and workplaces

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And…

 Dementia, Alzheimer's, depression will

 Become more prevalent  Require direct and indirect departures from the labour force  Increase demands for health care services

 Normal aging for an increasing proportion of the population will

 Increase demand for physiotherapy, medication, home care,

and hospital services

 Drive up costs for wages, recruitment, retention  Result in increased competition for scarce resources

Further…

 We will see more people from outside Canada and the US come to live permanently and temporarily to fill many

ccupations…

 and see other countries recruiting young North Americans to

move to their countries.  Older workers will become more prevalent in the labour force  More workers will be vulnerable to work-related injury due to

 “newness” to the job (major risk factor for injury)  Language and culture (communications issues)  Economics (need to work longer hours, years, multiple jobs)  Precariousness of employment (part-time contingent employment)

Some final thoughts

 Be sensitive…  Take care of your health…  Be very nice to your children…  Be very generous to your retirement savings…

AASCIF Convention 2015: Bridging the Future San Francisco July 6

Terrance J. Bogyo Independent Researcher | Speaker | Consultant